Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
FPÖ
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 141903 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1300 on: October 11, 2019, 08:59:08 AM »


Among the important ones („red lines“ !) she told Kurz, were:

# NEOS would not be part of a government that puts any human rights in question or violates them

# full transparency in politics and political donations (those are particularly tough demands for the shady (corrupt ?) Kurz ÖVP, because they would have to dissolve their dark money channels via secret constructs involving banks (Raiffeisen), big companies and wealthy donors.

# a comprehensive education reform, with more autonomy for headmasters and teachers

# a tax reform/tax cut for employers and employees

# pension reform automatism (something the ÖVP opposes). NEOS has called the ÖVP „to the left of the Swedish Social Democrats“ on this issue ...

# a comprehensive climate protection bill, which would include a carbon tax (which the ÖVP opposes -> no new tax burdens for working people.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109686628/meinl-reisinger-legte-kurz-ihre-roten-linien-dar
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1301 on: October 11, 2019, 10:37:59 PM »

Wednesday will be important:

# the federal election commission will publish the certified results of the federal election results and the candidates who will get a seat in the new Nationalrat, which will convene on October 23. Here is the new Green parliament group for example:


Source: Greens - Twitter

# also, Philippa Strache has to decide by Wednesday if she will take her seat or not. Former party leader H.C. Strache is very active on his (personal) Facebook page right now, demanding his former party to accept her in their group. The FPÖ is strongly opposed and wants to get rid of any connections with the Strache’s. Philippa could still accept her seat, become a more or less meaningless, powerless independent MP, cash in 9.000€ for 5 years and be a thorn in the flesh for the FPÖ. H.C. Strache has recently also given hints he might create his own party to oppose the FPÖ in the Vienna state election next year. But for this, he would need some people willing to finance it and there are still the legal challenges about the Ibiza video awaiting him in court.

# the in-depth exploration talks headed by the ÖVP will continue.

Also: both SPÖ and FPÖ have decided in meetings to start a „renewal process“, which will start right away. The FPÖ will have 2 task forces and present first results in December, the SPÖ next April.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1302 on: October 12, 2019, 02:51:24 AM »

Monthly "Profil" magazine poll (Oct. 7-11, aged 16+, n=807, phone+online, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

37% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
15% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

39% Kurz (ÖVP)
12% Hofer (FPÖ)
11% Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  8% Kogler (Greens)
  6% Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)

Also:

60% of Austrians want a new government until Christmas, 22% wouldn't mind if it takes longer than that.

66% of Austrians now favour a total ban on private handgun ownership.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-mehrheit-regierung-weihnachten-11168447
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Cranberry
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« Reply #1303 on: October 12, 2019, 11:34:00 AM »

Next up city map, Graz - the second biggest city with a population of around 300.000. Similar to Innsbruck very much a university city, where Greens finished a narrow second behind the ÖVP, and SPÖ/FPÖ far behind.



The main dividing line in the city, the river Mur, should be apparent at first glance - the eastern side with the old city core is the traditionally bourgeois, upscale bank; while the working class quarters are situated on the western side. The second main division, as usual in Austria, plays out between city core and inner suburbs, housing the university (in Geidorf, the northernmost of the Green districts) and thus many students and younger people, on the one hand; and outer suburbs and residential / industrial areas on the other. ÖVP is thus strongest in suburban, hillside Waltendorf; Greens in the student quarter St. Leonhard, SPÖ in immigrant-heavy Lend, just across the river from the city core; FPÖ in residential Puntigam, home to one of the country's largest breweries and a Puch factory (as well as the working class football club Sturm Graz); and finally Neos in Innere Stadt, the medieval city core.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1304 on: October 13, 2019, 02:51:32 AM »

Vorarlberg state election today.

Polls close in 3 hours already.

"Big" questions:

* Will the ÖVP get an absolute majority ?
* Can the Greens improve on their good 2014 result of 17% ?
* Will the FPÖ collapse of -10% continue ?
* Can the SPÖ reach double-digits again ?
* Will NEOS pass 10%, or overtake the SPÖ, like they did 2 weeks ago ?
* Who will be the strongest small party ?
* Will turnout drop below 60% ?
* Will ÖVP-Greens continue ?

https://www.vol.at/specials/landtagswahl

Results:

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1305 on: October 13, 2019, 06:11:08 AM »

The polls in Vorarlberg have closed and some small towns are already counted.

Trends: Heavy FPÖ losses, gains for all other parties.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1306 on: October 13, 2019, 06:32:39 AM »

The polls in Vorarlberg have closed and some small towns are already counted.

Trends: Heavy FPÖ losses, gains for all other parties.

If the trends keep up, the FPÖ will drop from 23-24% to 12%.
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OldEurope
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« Reply #1307 on: October 13, 2019, 07:11:09 AM »

Exit Poll

SORA / ORF

ÖVP: 43.8% (+2.0), 17 seats(+1)
GRÜNE: 18.9% (+1.Cool, 7 (+1)
FPÖ: 16.1% (-7.3), 6 (-3)
SPÖ: 9.1% (+0.3), 3 (+-0)
NEOS: 8.6% (+1.7), 3 (+1)
others: 3.5% (+1.5)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1308 on: October 13, 2019, 07:33:10 AM »

It’s not an exit poll, but a projection.

The FPÖ is too high in this one, they will get less than 15% ... and the Greens 20%.
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OldEurope
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« Reply #1309 on: October 13, 2019, 07:35:39 AM »

FPÖ: 15% in the second "Hochrechnung" by SORA/ORF
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1310 on: October 13, 2019, 08:57:13 AM »

The FPÖ drops to 14% in the updated projection:

https://orf.at/wahl/#/projection

Which means they would lose 4 of their 9 seats in the state parliament, while ÖVP/Greens/SPÖ/NEOS gain one each.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1311 on: October 13, 2019, 08:59:57 AM »

I would say OVP+NEOS  is the likely govt here at first glance, but realistically anyone who desires power could work with the Voralberg OVP. Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1312 on: October 13, 2019, 09:06:44 AM »

Today is the worst FPÖ result in a federal/EU/statewide election in 6.5 years.

The last time the FPÖ got less was in early 2013 during the Tyrol state election with 9.3%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1313 on: October 13, 2019, 09:23:17 AM »

I would say OVP+NEOS  is the likely govt here at first glance, but realistically anyone who desires power could work with the Voralberg OVP. Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.

A continuation of Black-Green is most likely, because ÖVP-Governor Markus Wallner already said he prefers that option.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1314 on: October 13, 2019, 10:01:14 AM »

Among the small parties, the Turkish list HaK and XI (never heard) are strongest with 1.5% each.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1315 on: October 13, 2019, 10:09:13 AM »

Only 2 major cities left: the capital Bregenz and Feldkirch.

They should keep the FPÖ below 14%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1316 on: October 13, 2019, 11:10:24 AM »

Final results from Vorarlberg (except a few thousand absentee ballots that were cast in other precincts than the own and which will be counted on Tuesday):

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1317 on: October 13, 2019, 11:17:27 AM »

Final results from Vorarlberg (except a few thousand absentee ballots that were cast in other precincts than the own and which will be counted on Tuesday):

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13

Clickable maps:

https://visualhosting.apa.at/3oiusd09/election/index.map.city.html?apaview=election:80000

Click on Hochburg ("stronghold") > select a party.

https://at.staticfiles.at/snippets/interaktiv/2019/10-ltw-v/map.html?2230812dd6ae4fd4fb08
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1318 on: October 14, 2019, 09:42:18 AM »

The Greens have presented their new parliamentary group today to the public, in their first common work meeting:


They said that out of the 26, more than 25% have a migrant background.

15 are women (+1 female Pirate on a Green ticket is missing in the picture).

Half are under the age of 40.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1319 on: October 14, 2019, 10:06:18 AM »

Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.

This is correct.

In the Bundesrat, the ÖVP now has 22, the SPÖ 21, the FPÖ 15 and the Greens 3 seats.

ÖVP+Greens would need 31/61 seats to have their own majority there as well. That's a net gain of 6 over the next year.

In the Styria state election next month, ÖVP and Greens could net one seat each from the FPÖ and SPÖ. Giving them 27.

If the Burgenland state election in January turns out to be a total catastrophe for the SPÖ (like on the federal level), the ÖVP would net another seat. But that's very unlikely, as the Burgenland SPÖ in state elections should easily keep the ÖVP behind.

Still, let's assume a debacle and ÖVP-Greens have 28/61 seats in January.

Then it would come down to the important Vienna state election next year. If the ÖVP can replicate their good results from the federal election there as well (pretty unlikely), they would net 2 seats. And if the Greens are also getting 20-25%, they could also net one.

Bringing them to 31 seats. But that's a lot of ifs ...
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OldEurope
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« Reply #1320 on: October 14, 2019, 10:19:03 AM »

The Greens have presented their new parliamentary group today to the public, in their first common work meeting:


They said that out of the 26, more than 25% have a migrant background.

15 are women (+1 female Pirate on a Green ticket is missing in the picture).

Half are under the age of 40.

For all I know, the female Pirate, Maria Chlastak, didn't get a seat.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRT8PcJJWylJtV5I2ZSmqK1vq3qO_Rz56YGTNHWIvg2HE2nynSSr-m8VfnuRcpRo4Aj1crhf6kC7k7q/pubhtml?gid=742032622#
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1321 on: October 14, 2019, 10:27:24 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2019, 10:36:19 AM by Tender Branson »

I thought Maria Chlastak was elected ...  Roll Eyes

It seems Ralph Schallmeiner is missing on the picture.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1322 on: October 14, 2019, 11:54:26 PM »

After the election is before the election ...

The important Styria state election is coming up on Nov. 24 and if trends continue, the ÖVP will end up with 35-40% there, the SPÖ around 20-25%, the FPÖ at 15-20%, the Greens at 10-15% and Communists and NEOS with around 5% each.

Meanwhile, the SPÖ's infighting and chaos continues just like before the election. The most recent topic was if a major SPÖ politician is allowed to drive a 80.000€ Porsche in private.

The presence of the strong Communist Party in Styria is also not helping them. I think they could drop to 20% or lower next month. That would be a total destruction for the SPÖ in Styria, considering they once had 40%+ there and it is a major mining, steel and (car parts) production state.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1323 on: October 15, 2019, 03:43:42 AM »

Coalition exploration talks between the Kurz-ÖVP and the Kogler-Greens will start on Friday, 10am and will last at least 3 hours.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1324 on: October 15, 2019, 11:46:58 AM »

Coalition talks in Vorarlberg are much faster than the ones for the new federal government:

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/3017280

After the state election on Sunday, Gov. Wallner (ÖVP) talked with Greens, FPÖ, SPÖ and NEOS today and said after the meetings that in-depth talks will be held with the Greens, starting on Thursday.

So, it's 100% certain that ÖVP-Greens will continue there.
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