Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Styrian SPÖ-leader Michael Schickhofer will step down if the party falls below 21% in the state election next month.

That would be a loss of more than 8% compared with 2015.

https://orf.at/stories/3141635

[Tender Branson]

Philippa Strache will take her seat tomorrow and will instantly become an Independent, sitting behind the SPÖ.

Also, the Greens will field a candidate for 3rd (= deputy) Parliamentary Speaker tomorrow (Eva Blimlinger) to oppose Norbert Hofer (FPÖ).

This is interesting, because usually the 3rd-placed party (= FPÖ) has the right to have the 3rd deputy Speaker.

Will be interesting to see how the ÖVP votes here ... (but I'm pretty sure they will vote for Hofer).

https://orf.at/stories/3141747

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Meanwhile, the SPÖ is a total clusterf**k with ongoing internal intrigues like before the election.

Being in a total clusterf**k over internal intrigues is pretty common for European social democratic parties, amrite?

Not sure about other countries, but the image the SPÖ has displayed to voters over the past week has been very troubling, if not worse than what the FPÖ is producing right now with the Strache Facebook shutdown and Philippa's seat.

Labour or Parti Socialiste are particularly notorious for internal infighting and factionalism.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the Standard:

38% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
16% FPÖ
15% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% Others

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000110115743/klare-mehrheit-wuenscht-gruene-in-der-regierung-und-sagt-fpoe

+ Austrian voters are warming about the prospect of having the Greens (and NEOS) in the next government.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Meanwhile, the SPÖ is a total clusterf**k with ongoing internal intrigues like before the election.

Being in a total clusterf**k over internal intrigues is pretty common for European social democratic parties, amrite?

Not sure about other countries, but the image the SPÖ has displayed to voters over the past week has been very troubling, if not worse than what the FPÖ is producing right now with the Strache Facebook shutdown and Philippa's seat.

Labour or Parti Socialiste are particularly notorious for internal infighting and factionalism.

I wonder if that's a consequence of non PR voting - less ideological sorting means broader tents (amongst voters, cadre and elected officials alike) that are trickier to being together. Like as far as I know, there are no Corbyn style backbencers in the SPD lists?

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_AT/status/1186699127725400067

Opinion of Greta Thunberg:

51% Positive
36% Negative
  9% Undecided
  4% Don't know her (she has a bigger name ID than major Austrian politicians)

[Tender Branson]

The new parliament has been sworn in today (183 members) incl. Philippa Strache, who left parliament again a few minutes later. She was also officially thrown out of the FPÖ in the afternoon, with her party membership being cancelled.

Sobotka, Bures and Hofer were all re-elected Speaker and deputies with more than 70% each.


Source: APA

Pictures of the opening session:

https://www.parlament.gv.at/SERV/FOTO/VER/889115/index.shtml

Evolution of the women share in parliament (this will change once the government takes office, because government members cannot be MPs):


Source: APA

[Tender Branson]

A new study by Apollis for a South Tyrolian Sociology think-tank shows that Austro-Italian dual-citizenship is seen quite critical among South Tyrolians:

https://www.diepresse.com/5711079/die-mehrheit-der-sudtiroler-will-keinen-osterreichischen-pass

The interesting thing is that Italian-speaking South Tyrolians are not a lot more critical than German-speaking ones (62% say it's a bad idea), even though opposition is a bit higher (71% say it's a bad idea).

When it comes to actually thinking about getting Austrian citizenship, 13% of German-speaking South Tyrolians would "definitely" apply for it, 23% "maybe" and 58% would not.

[Tender Branson]

NEOS, like the FPÖ & SPÖ before, has pulled out of further exploration talks with the ÖVP today, after their meeting with Kurz and his delegation.

NEOS argues that another round of exploration talks are unnecessary, because Kurz already knows all their positions and they only want official coalition talks now (like the SPÖ).

Kurz said he understands their demands, but will „focus strongly“ on the Greens now. ÖVP-Greens will hold exploration talks all day long tomorrow.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/sondierungen-neos-will-sich-nicht-monatelang-hinhalten-lassen/400656254

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache called the FPÖ misogynistic today:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/wegen-philippa-strache-wirft-fpoe-frauenfeindlichkeit-vor/400656824

He blamed them for terminating the party membership of his wife Philippa and for kicking her out of their parliamentary group and he blamed the party for a "record-low" share of female MPs.

LOL. As if the share of women was higher when he was still party leader.

[Tender Branson]

Pictures of the new MPs, by party:

ÖVP



SPÖ



FPÖ



Greens



NEOS



Source: party websites or their Twitter sites

[Tender Branson]

Kurz will end the exploration talks with the Greens on November 8 and announce „a few days later“ his official choice for coalition talks.

In the next 2 weeks, ÖVP-Greens have scheduled another 4 all-day meetings.

Unofficially, those meetings are still called „exploration talks“, but de-facto they are already coalition talks (even if nobody from both sides wants to confirm it).

The media is reporting that issue blocks are already being debated and equalized between the 2 parties for common ground, with finances/budget/immigration talks planned for next week and social topics + environment during the first November week.

https://orf.at/stories/3142102

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll:

SPÖ drops below 20% for the first time in their 130-year history.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-faellt-erstmals-in-ihrer-Geschichte-unter-20/403303234

No surprise considering their embarrassing behaviour during the past weeks.

PS: a Strache-Party would only get 3% in a federal election, with the FPÖ relatively unchanged at 14% (-1%), while the ÖVP would also lose 1%.

[Tender Branson]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg:

Austria’s Kurz Plans to Start Formal Government Talks Next Month

Austrian conservative leader Sebastian Kurz will continue exploratory talks with the environmentalist Greens until Nov. 8 and then decide whether the conversation can graduate to formal and exclusive government negotiations.


Source: ÖVP

The Greens, led by Werner Kogler, are now the group with which Kurz engaged the most in the four weeks since the election those two parties won. Despite vast policy differences, overall voters’ support has switched to this coalition as the preferred one. Yet Kurz has resisted limiting himself to a single option.

“The parties are very far apart in terms of policy, so you have to ask yourself how a new form of governing can work between them,” Kurz told reporters in Vienna. “If this can be resolved positively, government talks with the Greens are possible,” he said, adding that both sides are interacting “constructively and professionally.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-25/austria-s-kurz-plans-to-start-formal-government-talks-next-month

[bigic]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

A man leading a "women's party" won't be the most absurd thing in Austrian politics.

[Tender Branson]

The Green Squad:

[crals]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

Is this some kind of joke or?

[Omega21]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

Is this some kind of joke or?

It's satire.

[Tender Branson]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

Is this some kind of joke or?

It's satire.

Yes.

But it would still be funny if Strache ended up creating a women's party ...

Strache apparently wants to become a business consulter/adviser now ...

In other news, there is not much news because today is our National Holiday.

[Tender Branson]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

A man leading a "women's party" won't be the most absurd thing in Austrian politics.

Indeed.

During Schüssel's ÖVP-FPÖ government, we had a man running the Ministry for Women's Issues.

[Tender Branson]

Styria will vote in 4 weeks and there are only 6 parties on the ballot, the lowest amount since 1981 (4).

https://steiermark.orf.at/stories/3017859

Styria has early voting on Nov. 15 (it is just one of 3 states that offer it, Burgenland and Carinthia being the others).

It is estimated that ca. 100.000 will vote early, out of 960.000 eligible voters and an additional 60.000 or so by postal ballot.

In Styria, there's also no 4% or 5% threshold like in all other states. In order to get a seat in the state parliament, a party needs a "basic mandate" in one of the 4 election districts in the state.

[crals]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

Is this some kind of joke or?

It's satire.

How disappointing

[Tender Branson]

Here's a chart for the upcoming Styria state election incl. the 6 parties on the ballot and the frontrunners, the 2015 results and results by town:


Source: APA

The Greens could really surprise this time (15%), because it's a sure thing that the SPÖ will collapse towards 20% and a lot of their voters will switch.

In previous state elections, the Greens never got more than 6%.

The FPÖ is involved in another Nazi-songbook scandal there right now:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/heil-hitler-ihr-alten-germanen-distanzierung-ist-falscher-begriff/400662911

Even though the songbook is from 1999, it belongs to a right-wing fraternity from Styria - of which a Styrian FPÖ politician of the Austrian Parliament is a member.

Yesterday, the FPÖ tried to "clean up" their Nazi songbook mess but it significantly backfired: Zangerl, the MP, said: "I will never apologize for singing these lines. My parents and ancestors already did sing them as well."

The lines include: "Heil Hitler" and smears of Jews as "pigs"/ wealthy bankers.

All parties called the new songbook scandal a disgrace and that the FPÖ should clean up their ranks. But Norbert Hofer and Co. have been really quiet so far, trying to sit it out. Last year, there was a songbook scandal as well ahead of the state election in Lower Austria, in which the FPÖ suffered a lot.

2 internal polls (one for the ÖVP, one for the FPÖ) show the FPÖ at 18-20% in Styria, before the song book scandal. That's down from 27% in 2015, but still way too high.

The interesting thing is that while the ÖVP attacked the FPÖ because of the songbooks, it emerged that Catholic student fraternities also had those Nazi lines in their songbooks until the late 1990s. Later versions were edited to include a historic reference and explanation to these lines or removed altogether. The FPÖ-fraternity songbooks are missing these historic clarifications.

Sebastian Kurz, who held 8-hour talks with the Greens yesterday, called the songbook texts "deeply disgusting" and "anti-semitic" and also urged the FPÖ to take action.


Source: APA

[Tender Branson]

After 8 hours of "exploration" talks, ÖVP+Greens announced yeterday that 5 broad topics will be their main focus:

* Combating climate change and pollution
* Combating illegal immigration
* Combating the economic slowdown, rising unemployment and lowering (child) poverty
* Education
* Transparency in politics and campaign finances


Source: APA/Punz

https://orf.at/stories/3142737

Both ÖVP and Greens praised the "very positive" atmosphere during the talks ...

If the Greens could be convinced to combat illegal immigration, that could mean a really good coalition after all ...