Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[DavidB.]

If I were an Austrian I'd be very unhappy with the ongoing ÖVP bullying of the FPÖ. Does Kurz want to return to governing with the SPÖ and get electorally demolished for pushing the same old leftist line on immigration and integration? At this point Strache should threaten to pull the plug if the ÖVP continue to do this.

[DavidB.]

Goddamnit.

[DavidB.]

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, all of this will probably happen. Kickl will be forced out, the FPÖ will be forced to be completely emasculated and will have to accept the dominance of the liberal progressive establishment. An expensive and painful lesson for all right-wingers all across the continent: one mistake (which was inexcusable, no misconceptions about it) can be the downfall of your entire project. Meanwhile the high-speed train towards liberal dictatorship only accelerates. This was one of the few non-post-Communist countries for which I still had high hopes. But at this point I'm not so sure anymore.

[DavidB.]

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

Why would the ÖVP do better than in the EP election?

[DavidB.]

B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.

I don't see how it means that. Wouldn't it benefit SPÖ and FPÖ just as much as ÖVP (FPÖ possibly more given that euroskeptical voters tend to turn out worse in EP elections)?

[DavidB.]

The next far-right Leader to recognise that preserving the nation and preserving its environment go hand in hand. Marine Le Pen was very much the first, when she campaigned on a quite environmentalist platform in the EU elections, and won of course.

We consider environmentalism the natural child of patriotism, because it's the natural child of rootedness

she said.

Nationalists can (and should) embrace environmentalism without also embracing the political theology of anthropogenic climate change and sacrificing our economies at its altar.

[DavidB.]

I'm currently undecided between ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.

When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.

[DavidB.]

I'm currently undecided between ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.

When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.

I can oppose mass immigration and vote Green at the same time (especially, since they have learned from their mistakes of the past and shut up about importing people from Africa and the Middle-East right now and focus on what matters and what the party was founded on: environmentalism).

Hahahaha. I have a bridge to sell to you.

[DavidB.]

That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

Hahaha, this would be a hilariously unpopular disaster. Don't you think it was a mistake for Kurz to pull the plug? If I were the ÖVP I'd be cautiously shifting away from the anti-FPÖ talk, as they remain by far the easiest coalition partner and ÖVP-FPÖ by far remains the coalition in which the ÖVP can acquire the most powerful position...

[DavidB.]

AdP (Alliance of Patriots, = BZÖ) wanted Identitarian Movement leader Martin Sellner as their frontrunner, but he declined.

He will still support them on his Instagram page though, so that they can get enough signatures to be on the ballot.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bzoe-wollte-identitaeren-chef-sellner-als-spitzenkandidaten/400555169

Isn't BZÖ supposed to be more moderate than the FPÖ? What happened?

[DavidB.]

This is not news.

[DavidB.]

If you scroll down the Austrian Greens Twitter feed, you will only find 1 tweet mentioning immigration or asylum these days (out of 100 tweets):

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/with_replies

So much to David B.'s argument that the Greens have not learned a thing over the past years and are still 100% immigration enablers.

In that case (= if they start talking too much again about being pro-immigration), they know that the Austrian voters will eradicate them again at the polls, like in 2017 ...

They are smart enough not to tweet about it but wouldn't act any differently if another group of thousands of refugees arrived at the border in Nickelsdorf. I'd rather see them talk about it and be honest about it.

David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.

I obviously understand not all Greens are the same, and the idea of conservation of the country and conservation of the environment is something I heartily endorse. The problem is that, for all of the difference in terms of focus by the Greens in, say, BaWü, they still vote the same way federally. They still share a party with Claudia "Deutschland, du mieses Stück Scheiße" Roth, a party that votes for more immigration and made opposition to an "Obergrenze" a priority at the negotiating table for Jamaika. It's the exact same thing Social Democrats have often done: de-emphasize the issue, perhaps not even agree with the party line, but, when push comes to shove, vote for the policies destroying our countries. And so I am thoroughly unimpressed by the Greens' focus on de-emphasizing the issue, which is merely strategic and not sincere at all. Ultimately, their commitment to mass immigration (which they will always prioritize over the environment) says it all.

[DavidB.]

They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs.

Aren't quite some of the suburbs actually part of Vienna, i.e. part of this total figure as well? I assume the main mostly lower-middle class suburban area outside the Vienna region is the corridor stretching all the way to Wiener Neustadt?

[DavidB.]

Dumb question:  How does that party name get that abbreviation?

They used to be Bündnis Zukunft Österreich but that's an incredibly vague name (doesn't tell you anything about their views), so they presumably decided to go with something clearer while maintaining the abbreviation under which they were already known.

[DavidB.]

Since I see Tender put up a poll: the FPÖ could do anything and I'd still vote for them, but I'd be disappointed if they let themselves be played by the ÖVP too easily after Kurz' disgusting opportunistic move. Perhaps they should let Kurz try and form a coalition with NEOS and the Greens first, with the reasoning that since he ditched the FPÖ he should first try another option, and then let him come back to the FPÖ if negotiations break down - then the FPÖ will have the upper hand (and if not, Kurz' policies will be so left-wing that the FPÖ will be at 30%> within a year). A coalition without Kickl is only acceptable if someone whose policies would be just as strong replaces him. The Burgenland FPÖ's idea of SPÖ-FPÖ is also fine with me, but the numbers really won't be there.

I do think Kurz' move only emboldened the more right-wing segment among the FPÖ. My uncle was deeply disappointed with the party when they cracked down on the IB and thought of staying home in the next election, but was as enthusiastic as ever to come out and vote FPÖ in the EP election after Kurz made the coalition collapse.

[DavidB.]

FPÖ voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FPÖ is at 81.20

ÖVP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all other voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all other voters)

SPÖ voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all other voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all other voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all other voters)

Does the last figure represent other voters' impression of the left-right stance of these parties' voters or of the left-right stance of the party itself? In the last case, the difference is logical. Obviously your average Green or FPÖ voter is going to be more "centrist" than the party.

[DavidB.]

Don't understand where the ÖVP thinks its leverage comes from. Not as if they have a majority with NEOS in the polls, huh? Wishing Kurz best of luck in governing with the Greens and losing his popularity with ÖVP-FPÖ swing voters.

[DavidB.]

So Hofer-Kickl now have issues with Strache?