Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Oryxslayer]

Do you think the impachment is going t help or hurt Kurz in the end? On one hand, the opposition comes off as incredibly petty, voting out a caretaker government. On the other hand, Kurz is losing the podium of power.

[Oryxslayer]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

The way how it's been framed is that no working majority, right now, can be found. All govts:

- OVP + FPO: Kurz doesn't want to be seen as falling right back into their arms after ending the govt, even though the FPO are all for it. He'll no doubt insist on the demands made previously to shackle FPO influence, which might not be so hot to them.
- OVP + SPO: SPO, as the main opposition party doesn't want to enter govt after losing votes at the polls, even though their previous result was a soft result from green defections. SPO also would prefer not to let FPO be the opposition. This is ignoring the obvious ideological differences.
- OVP + NEOS + Greens: Greens have so far refused advances to enter an OVP govt nationally, even though NEOS is all for supporting Kurz.
-SPO +  Greens + NEOS: lacks majority
-SPO + FPO: Lacks majority
-FPO + Greens + NEOS: lacks majority and has fierce ideological differences.

So someone needs to bend after the election.

[Oryxslayer]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

Looking at that it seems coalition building will be very hard if not impossible

How likely is a repeat election some time in early 2020?

So far, a government has always been formed, but early elections after a year have happened - in 1971 after a SPÖ-minority, in 1995 when (as usual) the ÖVP broke off a Grand Coalition. I suppose some sort of government will be formed (what would elections directly afterwards change anyway?), but I doubt it will last the full five years (which would put it in good company - 6 of the last 14 elections have been early elections: 1986, 1995, 2002, 2008, 2017, 2019)

Yeah someone in the four serious negotiating parties needs to bend (NEOS are happy with any Kurz govt) from their current position for there to be a govt. Bending tends to result in 'snap-backs' later on when beneficial.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at some of the predictions and possible last minute trends, what if the FPO does really badly and falls to say 17% and the Pilz Party gets over the 4% hurdle and the OVP doesn’t get the gains they were expecting and is stuck in the low 30s. Is it possible that OVP/FPO falls short of a majority and so that coalition is no longer even viable

Whenever you have to use that many ifs, it's a low possibility. We won't really know until long after the vote who truly won, everything is going to come down to who Kurz wants to work with, and who would accept the offer. OVP-FPO, OVP-SPO, and let's call it Jamaica could all have potential majorities.

[Oryxslayer]

Sounds like what Kurz really wants is another OVP/FPO government but with his party being much stronger and the FPO much weaker than before.

Yes, he wanted a castrated FPO as his Ally, but the FPO may not want to end up as free Kurz votes with little to show for it in terms of meaningful portfolios. There's also a line of thought that says getting a agreement from the greens to back your constitutional amendments could result in the needed supermajority in the upper chamber sometime during govf, assuming the FPO remain committed to stuff like the debt break.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout reports remain very high and it might pass the 80% from 2017, maybe as high as 82-85%.

In my family for example, everyone has voted ...

Could high turnout provide any surprises? Does it benefit anyone in particular?

Greens and NEOS with younger (relative) bases can benefit, but like tender said, it's not going to be as shocking a surge as some other countries operating from lower turnout baselines.

[Oryxslayer]

I just saw a tweet online, where a guy posted the results of a town in Burgenland (and then deleted it again after 5 minutes, because he could be sentenced for posting results early).

If those results are true, we could see some surprises ... (the town only has 1.000 eligible voters though).

I realize it might be illegal for you to post the numbers in this thread, but would it be illegal for you to send them to me in a PM?

I won't risk it.

Right...

Then let me ask you another question, what sort of fruits would the people of a small town in Burgenland prefer, Black Berries, Red Apples, Blue Berries, Limes, Pink Cherries, or do they not care about the sort of fruit as long as they get it NOW?

The delivery driver spilled a box full of 100 fruits in that town, consisting of 50 apples, 32 black berries, 9 limes, 6 blue berries, 2 pink cherries and 1 banana.

During the previous food delivery, the box contained 53 apples, 27 black berries, 12 blue berries, 3 pink cherries, 2 limes and 3 other fruits.

We spain now.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1178325227102769153

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1178324423755145217

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1178323727534178304

This means that OVP-Greens could have a majority on its own, no need for NEOS. So OVP would seriously have a choice of partners.

[Oryxslayer]

OVP+Greens, OVP+SPO, OVP+FPO all have working majority. No govt can be realisitically formed without OVP, not that such a fact was unexpected.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1178330347622281217

So it's OVP-Greens then.

[Oryxslayer]

There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?

It is, but with the OVP so high and the opposition so divided, the OVP might sneak through. Think Hamburg in 2017 Germany.

[Oryxslayer]

SPO gets their first notable win, Wels City. Of course, they won it by more  in 2017...

[Oryxslayer]

Voralberg is done for now....at least the surface results suggest there were either some fPo->green voters, or a lot of OVP->Green Voters who were canceled out by FPO->OVP voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Also annoying that turnout dropped to 75-76%.

Wouldn't that increase with the mail ballots, or is it projected?

[Oryxslayer]

Only 2 cities + 11 precincts in Vienna are left to count.

In ca. 30 minutes everything is counted.

Well, everything except the mail ballots. Do you know if the mail ballots end up matched to locality or if they are all just one basket? And also how many are theoretically out there, since some were counted today if they were handed in?

[Oryxslayer]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

OVP+Greens would only have a bit more that the threshold in got, so tacking NEOS on to the govt would be to buttress for safety. However, because  NEOS is somewhat close to the OVP politically, and like you said, the greens are already at a 2:1 disadvantage at least in govt, and Austria has never had a three-party arrangement, NEOS shouldn't be joining govt officially. If such a govt would form, it would be based on NEOS outside support in exchange for a few proposals, while the greens get govt portfolios alongside the OVP.

[Oryxslayer]

OVP-NEOS is an excellent coalition. great results today, well done Austria

OVP-NEOS lacks a majority,at least based on projections. OVP-Greens has one.

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, according to projections;

OVP-SPO Has a majority
OVP-FPO has a majority, FPO has stated a desire to enter opposition.
OVP-Greens has majority, greens have expressed a desire to enter govt if Kurz reverses certain policies.
OVP-NEOS lacks a majority.

OVP-Greens-Neos has a majority, obviously. Throwing NEOS onto the OVP-Greens govt would be to purely support its lifespan. The Greens would probably demand NEOS remains a supply partner rather than an official member, to increase their influence. The other way around doesn't work when considering Kurz's potential partners goals.

[Oryxslayer]

Austria's electoral map is a "sea of turquoise". Is this the first time the map in Austria is so uniform?

Also, map of Vienna by precinct:
https://twitter.com/broethaler/status/1178388065418657799

This map is also missing the record number of mail ballots, meaning the map probably gets a bit more green.

[Oryxslayer]

A sea of turquoise:

While may be unusual for Austria, last US election looked like this despite Clinton winning popular vote so if you have a strong enough urban/rural divide you could have a map look like this and still lose or barely win, mind you I don't think Austria is as urbanized as the US is so might be harder to replicate.

Three of Austria's 5 largest towns - Slazburg, Graz and Innsbruck, are all coloured in purple on the map. And even factoring in the dispersal of the left votes, it still looks like Vienna and Linz were the only substantial towns to still give a majority of their votes to the left.

But even Salzburg and Linz are not big places. Really, Austria is basically one quarter Vienna, three-quarters rural hicks.

There is a reason why there are two major right wing parties and the combined right wing vote is usually north of 60%.

[Oryxslayer]

Three of Austria's 5 largest towns - Slazburg, Graz and Innsbruck, are all coloured in purple on the map.

Turquoise you probably meant to say.

Also yes, those are the Slovenes in South-Kärnten, who had a very contentious relationship with FPÖ/ÖVP Governments in that state, especially after Haider tried to restrict their Language rights.

He may have some degree of colorblindness.

[Oryxslayer]

Could a OVP-NEOS minority govt happen?

Who would back them up? FPO won't go into govt right now (support is just govt without the perks), and Greens have nothing to gain. Minorities only work when you have some sort of idea about your future.

Or if you see the ÖVP and their voters as right and half of NEOS as right, it was:

58% right
42% left

As always here.

I seem to recall that in the 70s and 80s the SPO would win or come close to winning absolute majorities

Yes, but the Urbanization of the left, loss of working class voters to populist parties, weaking of unions as jobs move east..these are global trends that all are occuring in some fashion in most countries regardless of local issues and coalitions that influence the baseline. In some countries, t he trend benefits parties of the left since  more voters become available, in other like Austria not so much. But unlike the german SPD, the SPO still has appeal and can easily get first place if theye had a good leader, message, and the OVP was facing the wrath rather than the sympathy of the voters.

[Oryxslayer]

I particularly like this map, which I made just on the assumption that removing the dominant OVP would reveal an interesting coalition breakdown.

[Oryxslayer]

All votes (incl. all postal/absentee votes) are now counted:

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

Greens got 0.1%, but beyond that these last 40K mail ballots didn't adjust anything.

[Oryxslayer]

Julia Herr, the leader of the left-extremist SJ/Young Socialists (the youth organisation of the SPÖ) and Austrian counterpart to the German Kevin Kühnert (JUSOS), has been elected to parliament.



© Herr's Facebook page

Frau Herr is an arch-left radical, who wants to nationalize banks, companies and the real-estate market and who wants to "move beyond capitalism".

The SPÖ needs a revolution to stop their slide in the polls and at elections, but I'm not sure people like her(r) are the answer ...

So the AOC of Austria or perhaps Jeremy Corbyn of Austria?  She sounds a little too far to the left if you ask me.  Although couldn't SPO and Greens merge perhaps for a stronger left as it seems not just in Austria but most Western countries, blue collar workers are ditching traditional social democratic parties, while it is more your urban younger voters even those with above average incomes who are embracing left of centre parties.

Also the  German and Austrian Greens get voters (like Tender) who are more OVP/Green swingy voters rather than just pure voters on the  left. Merging in to a big left tent looses the voters from places like Baden-Wurttemburg. Not every green party is just a minor leftist - Green parties  in fact differ the  most ideologically in membership and voters since their unifying ideology lies on the ecological spectrum and not fiscal or welfare ones.

Cool maps, but NEOS is only ca. 50/50 Right vs. Left

Thanks for posting my images without credit

I discussed NEOS in a following tweet and the best way I can summarize their placement is complicated. Ideologically they are between the FDP and LREM when concerning fellow liberals, and are natural allies of the OVP. However, their voter base and issue focus is certainly more focused on social/euro issues then the FDP's, who are also just natural minor allies for the Union. Their voters, while 50-50, are likely geographically concentrated in their decision to support the left or the right. For example, Tyrol and Voralberg's (Non-Innsbruk) NEOS is likely to be overwhelmingly right, when compared to the Vienna NEOS voters. So just cutting it down the middle, or removing NEOS entirely is a false split. if you have to force them to come down entirely on one side or another, it would be for the Right, even though I am not happy with a forced dichotomy.