Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2019, 11:59:04 pm
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Kutasoff Hedzoff)
  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26) (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 38 Print
Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Sept. 29 federal election ?
#1
VP
 
#2
SP
 
#3
FP
 
#4
NEOS
 
#5
NOW
 
#6
Greens
 
#7
KP
 
#8
Change
 
#9
A regional party
 
#10
Invalid/Blank
 
#11
I wouldn't vote
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 110

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)  (Read 70510 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: December 31, 2018, 04:11:52 am »
« edited: December 06, 2019, 12:17:57 am by Tender Branson »

The new year 2019 is about to start, time for a new thread !

Here is the old one.



In 2019, there are 5 elections in Austria (of which 2 are important elections):

* EU Parliament Elections (May 26)
* Vorarlberg state election (September)

The not so important elections:

* Salzburg municipal elections (mayor & city council + mayoral runoffs, March 10 and 24)
* Chamber for Workers and Employees (= union vote, January to April)
* Austrian Students' Union (= "university parliament/student representation", May 27-29)

---

Here is what the year 2019 will bring in terms of changes, among them nice wage and pension increases, a tax cut for families and gay marriage:

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15163476/hoehere-loehne-rauchen-ab-18-oder-ehe-fuer-alle-das-bringt-2019
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2018, 10:01:24 am »

With gay marriage becoming legal tomorrow, the FP-led Interior Ministry has now finally decided to send a brochure to the 2.100 or so municipal registries in Austria how to administer them and surprisingly they are very favourable for the gay/lesbian couples:

There will be no fees to pay if gay couples in a current civil union want to upgrade their status to marriage, they only need an appointment at the local municipal clerk who will register their marriage either with simple signatures or with a small ceremony, if the couple wants. Also: gay marriages which were performed abroad will be recognized by Austrian municipal clerks.



Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/news/stories/2956217

Excellent.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2018, 10:20:46 am »

Georg Willi, the extremely popular directly-elected Green mayor of Innsbruck, has called for a merger of the Austrian Greens and the List "NOW" over the next 4 years - so that the Green movement is united again for the 2022 federal election:



https://derstandard.at/2000095106342/Innsbrucks-Buergermeister-fuer-Zusammenfuehrung-von-Pilz-und-Gruenen

I also think it's a good strategy, but I'm not sure how this will play out as long as Peter Pilz has still something to say within "NOW" ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2018, 03:18:41 pm »

Even though gay marriage will become legal in Austria in slightly more than 2 hours, I don't think there will be any marriage performed tomorrow.

Tomorrow is New Year and therefore a public holiday and all municipal offices are closed.

It would not be the first gay marriage anyway: In October, a lesbian couple has already married in Vienna. It was one of the couples that challenged the gay marriage ban in the Constitutional Court and won. The Court granted the challenging couples to marry immediately after their ruling.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2019, 02:58:39 am »

Nicole Kopaunik (37) & Daniela Paier (37) were the first gay/lesbian couple to marry in Austria right after midnight. The wedding ceremony was performed in the Casino Velden by municipal clerk Klaus Gottwald.



Looks like I was wrong that there would be no gay marriages today (a public holiday).

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5553508/Ehe-fuer-Alle_Das-JaWort-kam-kurz-nach-dem-Silvesterfeuerwerk
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2019, 12:49:16 pm »

Vice-Chancellor and FP-leader H.C. Strache and his wife Philippa got a New Year's baby today, a son named Hendrik (their first child):

https://derstandard.at/2000095169006/Heinz-Christian-und-Philippa-Strache-mit-eigenem-Neujahrsbaby

Strache will now take paternity leave for several months.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2019, 11:10:11 am »
« Edited: January 28, 2019, 12:50:49 pm by Kalwejt »

Austria to buy military helicopters

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-helicopters/austria-sets-aside-more-than-300-million-euros-to-buy-military-helicopters-idUSKCN1OX0R8

Good.

The coalition of Chancellor Sebastian Kurzs conservatives and the far-right Freedom Party deferred a bigger decision late last year on whether to scrap its fleet of Eurofighter jets, as the two parties could not reach agreement.

This was mostly done because of the EU elections in May. VP-FP do not want the unpopular jets to impact the election. A decision is expected by summer.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2019, 11:26:06 am »

Austria to implement cell broadcast warning system



Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.telecompaper.com/news/austrian-govt-plans-to-implement-cell-broadcast-catastrophe-warning-system--1275072

Good.

Long overdue.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2019, 03:10:59 pm »

Georg Willi, the extremely popular directly-elected Green mayor of Innsbruck, has called for a merger of the Austrian Greens and the List "NOW" over the next 4 years - so that the Green movement is united again for the 2022 federal election:



https://derstandard.at/2000095106342/Innsbrucks-Buergermeister-fuer-Zusammenfuehrung-von-Pilz-und-Gruenen

I also think it's a good strategy, but I'm not sure how this will play out as long as Peter Pilz has still something to say within "NOW" ...

Peter Pilz says he's "not ruling out" a re-unification with the Greens for the 2022 elections.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nach-Angebot-Pilz-haelt-Tuer-zu-den-Gruenen-offen/362101779
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2019, 03:07:50 am »

Honestly wondering under what kind of conditions Peter Pilz would accept re-unification with the Greens...

Only if he has still something to say in the unified party, which is unlikely considering he betrayed them and started his own party. I think the best solution would be if NOW were to get rid of Pilz over the next years and then start talks with the Greens.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2019, 03:11:40 am »

The Vienna SP has commissioned an internal poll from Peter Hajek's Public Opinion Strategies recently about the 2020 state election and the image of the new mayor, Michael Ludwig.

While Ludwig is very popular with voters from all parties, the SP is only at 37% (-3% compared with 2015). The FP is at 24% (-7%) and the VP at 17% (+8%). Greens and NEOS are in single digits.

SP+VP looks extremely likely after the 2020 election. Ludwig's SP is pretty tired of 2 terms with the Greens now and doesn't want to govern with the FP either.



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/die-spoe-nutzt-2019-als-training-fuer-das-rennen-um-wien/400368116
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2019, 04:59:52 am »

Austria had a budget surplus of 1.6 Bio. in the first 11 months of 2018.

That compares with a budget deficit of 5.1 Bio. in the first 11 months of 2017.

VAT-revenues, the biggest chunk of total revenues, increased by 3% compared with a year earlier.

Income tax revenues, the 2nd-biggest chunk of total revenues, rose by 7% compared with a year earlier.

In total, revenues were up 4.7% in the first 11 months. Outlays down by 4.7% compared with 2017.

https://service.bmf.gv.at/budget/akthh/2018/201811_HTML_BUDGET_F.htm

https://service.bmf.gv.at/budget/akthh/2018/201811_HTML_UG16_F.htm

If December does not come in badly, we might have had our first budget surplus in more than 50 years in 2018 already. One year earlier than planned.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2019, 05:25:55 am »

VP-FP will start the new year with a 2-day work retreat next week to work out the first details of their agenda for 2019.



Their agenda includes 4 main topics this year:

* a major tax reform and tax cuts (lower income/social-security taxes for small- and middle-income earners, worth 2-3 Bio. annually. The top tax rate of 55% for high-income earners will not be lowered though. Also, corporate taxes will be lowered by about 1 Bio. annually to attract more investment and more jobs). Also, the tax-bracket creep will be targeted.

* as a result of those tax talks, there will also be first negotiations about the new double budget 2020/2021, which will incorporate the tax reforms (effective 1.1.2020) and which will be passed in the fall. Despite all the tax cuts, the double budget for 2020/2021 could be balanced again or see small surpluses.

* a major reform of the long-term care for the elderly (maybe with an introduction of a care-insurance to shift the burden from the state in our ageing society, more towards a private component).

* promotion of digitalisation (digital classrooms and 5G rollout) and taxing multinational large IT companies operating in Austria with a 3% tax as a sign of fairness to small-income earners.

There are certainly other topics as well such as the purchase of the new fighter jets for the military to replace the Eurofighter jets, which are going to be controversial.

https://orf.at/stories/3106339

It's good to see a government that actually works for the people.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2019, 12:49:25 pm »

VP-FP has agreed to a 6 Bio. tax cut/reform today at their work retreat, with no budget deficits until 2022:



It will be a 3-step tax cut and a combination of social insurance tax cuts for low-income earners (who pay almost no or no income tax at all that could be lowered), income-tax cuts for middle-income earners and corporate tax cuts. The small- and middle-income tax cuts will come next year already, the corporate tax cuts will follow in 2021.

Here's also an updated picture of the government (Strache took a 2-day break from his paternal leave):



https://derstandard.at/2000095866024/OeVP-und-FPOe-bei-den-meisten-Details-zur-Steuerreform-noch
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2019, 01:11:58 pm »

Red-Green Vienna will not enforce the new welfare reform law that the federal VP-FP government will pass soon and will see deep cuts for foreigners (but more money for the disabled and single-parents):



https://orf.at/stories/3107181

SP+Greens argue that the deep cuts in basic welfare money destroys the social safety net for the weakest in our society and will lead to an increase in crime as a result. VP-FP argue that the cuts will be an incentive for those (who can work) to find higher-paid work and their way out of poverty and dependency.

If Vienna does indeed not enforce the new law, VP-FP could sue them. On the other hand Vienna could also sue VP-FP. Eventually, it seems the Constitutional Court will have to decide.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2019, 05:54:30 am »

The new Profil poll has the FP at 21%, a new record low:

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2019, 07:58:56 am »

The last time the FP had 21% in a poll was in mid-2013.

Maybe one of the reasons why the FP is dropping are their recent attacks on the charitable organisation Caritas, which they accused of "keeping the asylum industry up and running".

Caritas shot back at the FP, saying that aid for refugees is only a small part of their aid campaign (which of course is correct) and that most of their help is for poor Austrians.

That could be really unpopular with the population and even some FP-voters. Targeting charitable organisations is pretty uncool after all.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-gegen-caritas-auf-dem-ruecken-der-ehrenamtlichen/400375442
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2019, 01:10:03 pm »

With the FP in a fight with Caritas, Chancellor Kurz has also created controversy yesterday by saying that "in Vienna, where we have a significant welfare recipient problem, we have a lot of families where only the kids get up in the morning for school while their parents keep on sleeping. We from the VP are the ones for those who get up early in the morning and do hard work."

This led to the creation of the hashtag #WienStehtAuf ("Vienna wakes up", or "Vienna rising up"), where mostly left-wing people and politicians post how they get up very early in the morning to go to work. The SP has posted a video too.

https://derstandard.at/2000096022481/WienStehtAuf-Netzgemeinde-lehnt-sich-gegen-Kurz-Sager-auf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2019, 12:27:45 pm »

After numerous cases in recent years and especially the past few weeks where accepted asylum seekers have committed serious crimes (such as rapes & murders), VP+FP are now planning to tighten the asylum and deportation laws significantly to become the toughest in the EU:

In recent days/weeks, 2 young Austrian girls were killed by their Afghan/Syrian asylum seeking boyfriends, after they wanted to split up.

First they want to talk with other EU-countries to enforce swift and immediate deportations even in cases where these people have only committed softer crimes.

If there's no consensus, VP-FP might also become the first country in the EU to deport soft-crime asylum seekers to prevent future, more terrible crimes.

"Sometimes you need pioneers to get things moving.", Chancellor Kurz said today.

https://orf.at/stories/3107925

Long overdue, because:

The sad thing with #3 is that the 19-year Syrian "killfugee" has already committed a crime last year against her (domestic violence), but sadly he wasn't stripped of his asylum status and immediately deported back to Syria. It would have prevented this murder of the 16-year old Austrian girl yesterday.

I repeat: If accepted refugees f**k their host countries in such a disgusting way or even commit small crimes, their asylum status needs to be revoked immediately, put into preventive deportation imprisonment and they need to be deported back to where they came from. VP+FP need to act and throw all criminal refugees out of the country now ! If they cannot behave, they have no place here !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2019, 10:29:27 am »

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper:



Austrians also favour the welfare/basic income reform of VP-FP by huge margins and surprisingly also side with Chancellor Kurz and his remarks that "in some families on welfare, only the kids get up in the morning to go to school, while their parents keep on sleeping and we need to change that."

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/langschlaefer-kritik-an-wien-mehrheit-gibt-kanzler-kurz-recht/400382915

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/umfrage-bevoelkerung-klar-fuer-reform-der-mindestsicherung/400382504
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2019, 02:32:10 pm »

12.611 people have been deported last year (incl. those who left the country voluntarily).

In 2017, the number was 11.974 deported - so the overall number of deported people did not increase a lot in the first year of the FP being in charge of the Interior Ministry.

The only things that did change were the forced deportations, which increased by 47%, while the number of voluntary returns decreased by a lot.

Also, the number of new asylum requests was 13.400 last year, down from 24.735 in 2017 and more than 88.000 in 2015.

https://www.bfa.gv.at/bmi_documents/2280.pdf

I would have suggested that under VP-FP, deportations would exceed new asylum requests so that the backlog would decrease, but it seems there's a lot more work to do to get these people out of the country again ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2019, 10:27:41 am »

One thing is that the gap between new asylum seekers and deportations is narrowing significantly, and might reach a crossover point this year. I love the graphics in the link btw, with the airplanes especially. Looks like one extra deportation flight per month in 2018 vs 2017.

That's correct. Currently, the asylum agency are speeding up processing the asylum requests of the past few years and therefore deportations are on the rise in general. Forced deportations are definitely up because the FP Interior Ministry is putting a focus on criminal rejected asylum seekers being removed from the country more quickly (but still a lot more needs to be done).

Based on the December asylum requests (850), it is likely that the number of new asylum requests in 2019 will be back to pre-2014 levels and down to 10.000, which is low for Austria - but high on an international basis. For example, in US terms it would still amount to ca. 400.000 asylum requests a year, but the US only has 100.000 per year.

Preferably, I would say that new asylum requests should go down to as low as 3.000 per year and deportations up to 15.000 per year, to get rid of all the criminals and the backlog in general. The next thing we need to discuss is starting deportations to Syria, which is by-and-large quite safe again these days, especially the area around Damascus and the coastal parts.

A new poll shows that 75% (!) of Austrians support a repatriation treaty with the Assad government, so Austria could start deporting refugees and so-called "refugees" back to Syria.

Also, 77% want tougher asylum laws to deport even low-key criminal asylum seekers.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/75-fuer-mehr-Abschiebungen/365218781
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2019, 10:29:51 am »

New Vienna poll (24/Research Affairs):



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neue-Wien-Umfrage-Nach-Streit-mit-Regierung-kann-SPOe-zulegen/365220158

Not sure why they asked Meinl-Reisinger for NEOS. She's no longer leader of the Vienna-NEOS.

A continuation of Red-Green is currently impossible. SP-VP is very likely next year.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2019, 03:12:08 am »
« Edited: January 28, 2019, 12:44:25 pm by Kalwejt »

Austrian opposition call on interior minister to step down

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/herbert-kickl-austrian-opposition-call-on-interior-minister-to-step-down

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/25/c_137774556.htm
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,040
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2019, 12:23:32 pm »

If NEOS had to choose between the red green alliance and an OVP-FPO coalition, who would they choose?

This is only a question for Vienna, because Austria-wide it is not relevant as VP+FP have a clear majority.

As for Vienna 2020, NEOS is still unsure about what to do - especially if they are kingmaker. Both SP+Greens and FPVP would get around 44% right now in the polling.

NEOS has said they want to oust the SP from the mayoral post in 2020 and would be willing to vote for an independent mayor instead (nominated by the VP, but not the FP).

NEOS would not enter a coalition with the FP though, because their voter base would go nuts in such a case.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 38 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC