Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

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First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

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What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

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What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.

He could, but in practice he most likely would not. The Bundespräsident is on paper about as powerful as the french president, but in reality only very rarely interferes in day-to-day politics.
As for your second question, it is mostly a symbolic act to humiliate the goverment and to tie Kurz to the scandal.

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  Intresting that such an attitude is coming from a child of Bosnians, i.e.  european immigrants, not someone from a culturally far more different place.  Didn't read in the article which party she prefers, though I'm going to take a lucky guess and say its not FPO or OVP.

It is not so suprising that she as a European immigrant holds these opinions. She is out of step with most eastern European immigrants in the west, in this regard. If anything they are more right wing then the native population and unlike say Turks/Arabs assimilate far better into German/Austrian society. From personal experience Croat, Serb and Polish Germans resent multiculturalism (especially in regards to Islam) to a far greater degree than ethnic Germans and a ton of them vote AFD. Now she of course is a Bosnian muslim so that most likely is the reason for why she feels differently.

Yes, what makes this article even more curious is that while going on about the "racism" of the FPÖ/ÖVP Politicians, she completely overlooks that the Politicians in her beloved home, Bosnian ones, are some of the most race-baiting ones in the entire world. She would of course never go back there however, like many she is in the comfortable position of hating Austria and at the same time loving it's social system its civil rights and its opportunities. If this is "multiculturalism", then it's failing. There needs to be assimilation of those that want to become Austrian, and those that don't should be reminded that they are Guests and should behave themselves or leave.

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I dunno,

Einer von ihnen heißt Wolfi. Ich bin ihm begegnet, als ich 12 Jahre alt war. Er erklärte mir, dass ich niemals richtige Österreicherin sein werde, egal wie gut ich Deutsch spreche

is a pretty powerful thing to say to a child; and it's absolutely the kind of thing that you would internalise when it happens to you.

I mean yes she's reacting the wrong way, but it does provide an insight into the way that secondos react based on the ways that they are made to feel growing up in the only home they've ever had - and Austria (and Germany) seem to be particularly bad at this.

What more are we supposed to do? We offer Asylum, Jobs, Family reunification, all sorts of freedoms, social security systems, hate speech laws- all things immigrants could never imagine in many other countries. And they know this. This is why they choose to come here, of course. And yet they hate Germany.
We are possibly the best country in the world to come to as a immigrant. Yet those societies that are the most multicultural, that have the lowest expectations towards immigrants, tend to be the ones where there are ghettos, race riots, and disloyality, even hatred towards the native population.

I am a second generation immigrant. So are millions of Germans of Polish, Russian, Czech, Croat, Serbian, Italian, Spanish, Greek, Vietnamese, Chinese, Sri Lankan and other countless origins. The wast majority of them agreed to adapt German society, and not ask that German society adapt to us. There has almost never has been problems with these communities. They faced just the same amount of racism, maybe even more (Hoyerswerda, Rostock-Lichterhagen). Yet certain other types of Immigrants seem to level expectations at their Hosts, they seem to have Loyalities that make them have a greater Affinity with a dictator thousands of Kilometers away then with Germany, some of them even show outright hatred for Germany. And if a multicultural society breeds such people, then Multiculturalism has failed.

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snip

I understand where you are coming from, even though i disagree completely.

I am however genuinely curious: Which country do you think we should model our integration policies on, when it comes to middle eastern immigrants?

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David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.

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Yesterday evening during primetime, SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner was interviewed by the public ORF as part of the "summer interview" series and was interrupted 4 times by an elephant nearby:

Starting at minute 13:13 ...

Ich dachte das ist ein Sommergespräch und keine Elefantenrunde?

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DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

ÖVP-FPÖ had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).

Spain, Romania (I think?), and Portugal all have variants of laws like this, which is handy given the massive brain drain of Israelis to Europe. These laws may or may not be designed to lure well-educated Israeli yuppies to Europe (as if they needed a law to do that!), but in any case it definitely is smart given European demographic realities.

Germany also has such a law. It has helped lure many wealthy young Israelis, especially in the tech industry, to places like Berlin. It is part of a sad irony, of course: Just as more and more European Jews are leaving Germany, France and other European countries for Israel over increasing antisemitism, Israeli Jews are coming here because they are uncomfortable with the Situation in Israel.

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Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1172187389164445696

Will this harm the FPÖ? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FPÖ actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?

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In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.

No, not at all. We have a constructive vote of no-confidence, meaning that a alternative chancellor needs a majority for it to succeed, but that is something completely different, and had that existed in Austria, Kurz would have not been ousted in the first place. But there is no ban on former chancellors serving again, and frankly that seems like an extremely undemocratic idea, pushed by Pilz because they know Kurz is going to win. Alfred Noll, the guy claiming this in the article, is blatantly lying .

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Of course this is mostly done by Pilz because of the election campaign, but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

Well, unequivocally Yes, they should. A vote of no confidence is a political judgment by parliamentarians who have partisan motivations. One could make the argument that someone with a criminal conviction by court should not be allowed to run, but being voted out by parliament does not mean that you have done something illicit or bad. It means that Parliament does not like you or what you have done.

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Itt NEOS, I always got the impression it was a lot more socially liberal than the very stuffy and businessman run FDP.

You are generally right with that impression. Imo. they are closer towards the LibDems then the FDP. I think their support of this comes from a general anti-politician attitude. ÖVP/SPÖ politicians were generally known to be quite, er, "clientelistic" (to say the least) when it comes to public finances during the ages of Grand Coalition. Straightjacketing the "irresponsible politicians" is rather a popular theme, even among some economically left voters, see Tender.

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Harald Vilimsky (FPÖ) strongly implies that FPÖ will go into Opposition, says that FPÖ cannot take this result as a mandate for continuing the Coalition.

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ÖVP Voters prefer NEOS then FPÖ as Coalition Partners

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German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

Is NEOS really right-wing?

Is Macron right wing? I mean, no, but a significant number of people to his left nevertheless think so.

My understanding is that NEOS is basically an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany. Very rightwing and quasi-libertarian on economic issues and relatively liberal on social issues.

They are more centrist than the FDP.

On a side note, there is now no more EU country in Western Europe with a far-right Party in Government.

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Three of Austria's 5 largest towns - Slazburg, Graz and Innsbruck, are all coloured in purple on the map.

Turquoise you probably meant to say.

Also yes, those are the Slovenes in South-Kärnten, who had a very contentious relationship with FPÖ/ÖVP Governments in that state, especially after Haider tried to restrict their Language rights.

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Three of Austria's 5 largest towns - Slazburg, Graz and Innsbruck, are all coloured in purple on the map.

Turquoise you probably meant to say.

Also yes, those are the Slovenes in South-Kärnten, who had a very contentious relationship with FPÖ/ÖVP Governments in that state, especially after Haider tried to restrict their Language rights.

He may have some degree of colorblindness.

I considered that too when I wrote my response, but as someone who also grew up with a different language, I too often confuse the names of Colors on English, so I assumed it was that. The exact definitions/distinctions of Purple/Purpur, Lila and Violett is not clear in German anyway.

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When do we get the final results?

Sorry, parochial.

Anyway yes, 907.000 Postal Votes will be counted today, and the remaining 45.000 will be counted on Thursday. Then you will have a final result. If trends from last time hold, the postal votes will likely take the ÖVP from 73 Seats to 71 and the FPÖ from 31 to 30. The Greens probably take all 3 of them, going up to 26. They usually perform best among the postal votes.

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Question - do all Turks vote for SPO?

Unlike with their German counterparts, I was not able to find much data on their voting in Austrian elections, but here is a poll of Austrian Citizens of Turkish Origin for the 2017 election:

34.3% NEOS
33,1 % SPÖ
10,5%  FPÖ
14%     ÖVP
8,2%    Greens

This poll was done by UETD, which is a pro-Erdogan organisation in Austria, so take with a big grain of salt. Also generally these numbers dont really add up. Parts of Vienna with a large Turkish population, such as Brigittenau and Wien-Süd, do not have a disproportionately large Vote share for NEOS compared to the rest of Vienna, quite the opposite. Rather it seems they are still reliable SPÖ strongholds. So I would say the SPÖ is still the Party of Choice for most Austrian Turks.

Could they ever defect to a DENk style organisation?

Unlikely. Issue is twofold: First, unlike the Netherlands, Austria has a electoral threshold that effectively cuts off such an attempt. Even if all of the eligible Turks would vote and voted for such a party, it would fail at the Threshold with around 2,5%. They would need significant support among other Muslims. And even then Turnout among all Muslims (Turkish or not) is far lower across the board than for other voters. Add to that, that the Turkish population is not growing very fast, at least not compared to other Immigrant groups.  
Second is the nationality law. The Austrian nationality law is one of the strictest in Europe, with a full ban, strictly enforced, of dual citizenship. Nationality is never granted to Children born in Austria to a Turkish or any foreign citizen, unlike in Germany. The only way to receive Austrian Citizenship is through 10 Years Residence+ Language and Integration requirements+ and giving up any other nationality. On top of that the fees are some of highest in Europe. For this reason the rate of foreigners naturalising is very low, and a large section of the Turkish population holds only Turkish citizenship, even if they have lived in Austria for 2/3+ Generations. And its why, of the some 300.000 people of Turkish origin in Austria only about 120.000 are Citizens with the ability to vote. And generally those are the ones who will feel loyal or connected to Austria, and who were ready to voluntarily give up their Turkish citizenship. So they are unlikely to vote for a Denk-style party, unlike the Turks in the Netherlands who by contrast have dual citizenship in many cases (312.000), despite a de jure ban on it, and where the naturalisation was/is easier and more common.
That said on a local level Austria already has "Gemeinsam für Wien" in Vienna that is basically a Erdogan-front connected to the aforementioned UETD. It has a single seat in some districts, such as Simmering, where Threshold doesnt apply. They got only 0,91% of the vote in Vienna in 2015 however.