Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[TWTown]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

[TWTown]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

[TWTown]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SPÖ a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SPÖ-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SPÖ for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% ÖVP
20-25% SPÖ
18-22% FPÖ
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KPÖ
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

Do you have any ideas as to who could succeed Wagner if the SPO performs badly in the September elections?