Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Walmart_shopper]

How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.

Nope.

Kurz doesn't like the SPÖ in its current form and ÖVP-NEOS-(Greens) is much less trouble, especially if the ÖVP gets 40%+ in the fall.

I actually think that FPO has a strong enough base of support to avoid totally imploding, and that base is not easily transferable to the OVP in any case. So 40+ percent for the OVP seems a little optimistic. But they may indeed do well enough to net a majority together with NEOS and the grunes.

[Walmart_shopper]

The beautiful thing about right wing conspiratorialism is that it is literally right out of the Kremlin's rhetorical playbook. The only thing missing is the Russian accent.

In any case, this is a great day for Austria. I'm not a big Kurz fan but I think he could actually do quite well once unshackled from the far right.

[Walmart_shopper]

Why not simply keep the coalition with the FPÖ?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FPÖ voters will go en masse to the ÖVP, they could just abstain or even go to the SPÖ!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SPÖ led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SPÖ-Greens-NEOS?

I think it's pretty clear that the FPO is a sinking ship. Their polling has been declining for a while. Obviously this won't help. Why tie to yourself to a dumpster fire when you don't have to?

A new election definitely could go a bit haywire and end up with ab SPO PM. But I think the odds are pretty clearly with OVP staying on top. When it's either the dysfunction and now corruption of the far right or new elections with decent odds, I think it's obvious that you take the new elections even though in theory you might lose them.

[Walmart_shopper]

Other than the sensationalist sex stuff, I wonder if this could somehow blow up and envelope the OVP as well. That's probably the most obvious reason why Kurtz would call new elections. He really does need to get in front of this and put a lot of distance between the story and his government. It's hard to do that in partnership with the party that caused all of this.

[Walmart_shopper]

Reports are that Kurz's press statement (now long overdue) is being pushed back further and further because FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl is refusing to resign as well, as Kurz wants (to start over with the "new" FPÖ).

If Kickl refuses to resign in the coming hours, new elections are more and more likely. At some point Kurz will lose patience with Kickl I guess.

New FPO? I thought Strache was the new FPO. Somehow they keep snaking their way into government and embarrassing Austria. It's amazing that Kurtz would try to keep this clown car on the road.

[Walmart_shopper]

Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

[Walmart_shopper]

Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

I guess we cannot rule it out, but he probably doesn't want to make the same mistake again (the FPÖ will very likely never be "cleansed", there will always be so-called "unique cases" of anti-semitism etc.)

A strengthened ÖVP and Kurz with 40%+ would have a very easy time with the Greens and NEOS at around 8-10% each. See Salzburg state elections last year and aftermath. That government here now enjoys 75-80% approval ratings.

The FPO is kind of like the hot stove that you kind of compulsively continue touching. At some point normal people, and so normal countries, stop touching. But the fact that Austrian leaders keep going back to the FPO despite getting burned does beg some uncomfortable questions about the nature of Austrian democracy.

[Walmart_shopper]

Good, it's done.

The second shortest government in post war history still lasted far too long. At least this should bury the FPO for another decade until it finds it way back into government.

[Walmart_shopper]

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

Sounds like the ÖVP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FPÖ train then.

You definitely pick winners.

[Walmart_shopper]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Exactly what I expected, FPO between 15% and 20%

As I said, FPO voters are not easily transferable to OVP because many of them are just as bothered by the OVP as by the Socialists. As it is in France, by the way. Kurz tried pivoting well to the right, and this is where it got him. If that's what he truly believes then maybe he'll have to find a way to open up to the FPO crazies once again. And if he's more ideological malleable maybe he'll have to open up to a grand-coalition of sorts, which would make sense given his speech the other night.

In either case I don't think Tender's vision of an OVP-Greens-NEOS government is quite so simple. In this poll it would be tight, but doable. Who knows what would actually happen in a few months, especially if the SPO pick off Green voters.

[Walmart_shopper]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.

He's backed himself into a corner, though. Anything short of firing Kicki would have horrible optics.

[Walmart_shopper]

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.

Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SPÖ-FPÖ-NOW.

Who are the most likely candidates to become PM? Will they almost entirely come from the left or could VdB choose someone from the OVP?

[Walmart_shopper]

Are the Austrian Greens as far to the left as the German Greens?

[Walmart_shopper]

If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If ÖVP-NEOS or ÖVP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), ÖVP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

What would a government like that even look like, policy-wise? OVP and Greens don't really share anything meaningful in common, do they? And even NEOS would tightly restrict Kurz's move of the OVP to the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

ÖVP-FPÖ had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).

Spain, Romania (I think?), and Portugal all have variants of laws like this, which is handy given the massive brain drain of Israelis to Europe. These laws may or may not be designed to lure well-educated Israeli yuppies to Europe (as if they needed a law to do that!), but in any case it definitely is smart given European demographic realities.

[Walmart_shopper]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout reports remain very high and it might pass the 80% from 2017, maybe as high as 82-85%.

In my family for example, everyone has voted ...

Could high turnout provide any surprises? Does it benefit anyone in particular?

[Walmart_shopper]

I just saw a tweet online, where a guy posted the results of a town in Burgenland (and then deleted it again after 5 minutes, because he could be sentenced for posting results early).

If those results are true, we could see some surprises ... (the town only has 1.000 eligible voters though).

What party is strongest in Burgenland?

[Walmart_shopper]

I just saw a tweet online, where a guy posted the results of a town in Burgenland (and then deleted it again after 5 minutes, because he could be sentenced for posting results early).

If those results are true, we could see some surprises ... (the town only has 1.000 eligible voters though).

I realize it might be illegal for you to post the numbers in this thread, but would it be illegal for you to send them to me in a PM?

I won't risk it.

Right...

Then let me ask you another question, what sort of fruits would the people of a small town in Burgenland prefer, Black Berries, Red Apples, Blue Berries, Limes, Pink Cherries, or do they not care about the sort of fruit as long as they get it NOW?

MAJOR UPSET BREWING https://i.imgur.com/zz6mJGi.jpg

[Walmart_shopper]

I just saw a tweet online, where a guy posted the results of a town in Burgenland (and then deleted it again after 5 minutes, because he could be sentenced for posting results early).

If those results are true, we could see some surprises ... (the town only has 1.000 eligible voters though).

I realize it might be illegal for you to post the numbers in this thread, but would it be illegal for you to send them to me in a PM?

I won't risk it.

Right...

Then let me ask you another question, what sort of fruits would the people of a small town in Burgenland prefer, Black Berries, Red Apples, Blue Berries, Limes, Pink Cherries, or do they not care about the sort of fruit as long as they get it NOW?

The delivery driver spilled a box full of 100 fruits in that town, consisting of 50 apples, 32 black berries, 9 limes, 6 blue berries, 2 pink cherries and 1 banana.

During the previous food delivery, the box contained 53 apples, 27 black berries, 12 blue berries, 3 pink cherries, 2 limes and 3 other fruits.

We spain now.

Honestly, that's pretty much what anyone expected, with a more pronounced FPO drop and maybe a more significant bump for the Greens. All it really does is sweeten appeal for Kurtz to pivot left and gives the Greens a significant bite of the apple...or lime...or whatever.

[Walmart_shopper]

There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?

[Walmart_shopper]

Greens: We are not prepared to cooperate with Kurz if he continues on the path he took in the past 2 years.

(Watching live, so it's not a direct quote).

Yeah, but obviously replacing the FPO with the Greens will ensure that he won't. So this doesn't mean much.

[Walmart_shopper]

Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.

Pollsters are so used to underestimating the anti-establishment right-wing parties it does appear in a few places they've actually adjusted their methods too much, now overestimating those parties support.

It was the same in Sweden last year, the Sweden Democrats were actually overestimated by pollsters.

We saw this phenomenon here a couple of weeks ago, too. And obviously in Spain a few months ago.