Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[mileslunn]

How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.

[mileslunn]

Why not simply keep the coalition with the FPÖ?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FPÖ voters will go en masse to the ÖVP, they could just abstain or even go to the SPÖ!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SPÖ led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SPÖ-Greens-NEOS?

Based on polls to date seems very unlikely.  It would require a pretty seismic shift which I don't see happening.

[mileslunn]

Barring some unforseen event, its pretty clear Kurz will be re-elected, the question is what coalitions are most likely:

Does he bring back the right wing one of OVP-FPO? Go for Grand coalition of OVP-SPO, three party one of OVP-Greens-NEOS.  I presume OVP-NEOS is his preferred followed by OVP-Greens but if neither of those work, which of the first three is most likely and are there any we can rule out?

[mileslunn]

I am guessing OVP barring some major scandal or something really dramatic happening wins.  Question is will OVP + Greens or OVP + NEOS be enough or will OVP need both to govern.  If both become feasible, which is more likely?  I would think Neos would be more aligned than Greens although usually junior left wing parties take a hit and looking at how things are going in Germany and to a lesser extent in Netherlands there is a possibility Greens could replace SPO as main left wing party and I think today's left (your urban younger educated types vs. your smaller city blue collar types of the past) makes Greens better positioned long term to appeal to left.

[mileslunn]

Weekly Ö24 poll:



With just a month to go, the race for 1st place seems to be decided, as more than 80% of Austrians have decided on their vote choice. The race for 2nd and 4th are still pretty open, but I guess advantage for the SPÖ and Greens.

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

[mileslunn]

What is the most likely coalition?  Looks like Grand coalition or OVP-FPO could be done, but not sure Kurz wants either.  OVP-Greens might work but could the ideological differences be too large?  Other possibility is an OVP-Greens-NEOS (unless polls are massively off it looks like OVP-NEOS probably easiest to form won't have the numbers).

[mileslunn]

In yesterday’s session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# ÖVP-FPÖs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

Wow, they can do this.  Here in Canada, they are not allowed to pass laws once campaign starts, just a caretaker government.  Very interesting as I assumed during campaign they would ban passing laws so government cannot use legislation for its advantage.  Mind you in Austria you usually have coalitions whereas we are usually majority governments, but still kind of surprised this is permitted.

[mileslunn]

In yesterday’s session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# ÖVP-FPÖs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

Wow, they can do this.  Here in Canada, they are not allowed to pass laws once campaign starts, just a caretaker government.  Very interesting as I assumed during campaign they would ban passing laws so government cannot use legislation for its advantage.  Mind you in Austria you usually have coalitions whereas we are usually majority governments, but still kind of surprised this is permitted.

Governments always use legislation to their advantage, but this time it’s a lot more laws being passed before the election than normal because we have a caretaker government and no real coalition in place.

Which means a regular government would probably only pass some 5 laws before an election, but this time we have 5 different parties proposing new laws and all other parties mostly vote for it because of populist reasons or because the proposals actually make sense.

That’s why the FPÖ for example also voted for citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims.

I am just surprised they allow this.  Most countries I am familiar with ban the passing of any laws during campaign period.  Only other one I know that allows this is US as they have three separate branches and their campaigns last over a year.  In Canada, UK, Australia and I believe most European countries, govt is a caretaker and from beginning of campaign until new government is sworn in, no laws can be passed.  All laws in process die and have to re-introduced after election, assuming government who introduced it gets re-elected.

[mileslunn]

A sea of turquoise:

While may be unusual for Austria, last US election looked like this despite Clinton winning popular vote so if you have a strong enough urban/rural divide you could have a map look like this and still lose or barely win, mind you I don't think Austria is as urbanized as the US is so might be harder to replicate.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Kurz has a few options.  He can off course have the OVP-FPO coalition again, have a grand coalition (but that seems unlikely), or have a OVP-Green coalition with no need to include Neos.  The most obvious would be OVP-Neos but that doesn't have the numbers and not sure including them in a three way will make it any more stable.

[mileslunn]

My guess is OVP-FPO is not first choice, but may end up happening due to inability to form any other coalition.  For OVP-Greens, that would be interesting but with strong differences between the two, not sure how feasible and also usually progressive parties that are junior partners with right wing ones tend to take a hit in the following election thus why Greens may be wary.  OVP-SPO may work mathematically but I think SPO would be better to remain in opposition and focus on re-building.  In neighbouring Germany, grand coalition has destroyed SPD so I think mindful of that, they will want to avoid that problem.  Nonetheless I think Greens would probably like this as much like Germany, might allow them to displace SPO as main progressive alternative.

Another possibility, but not sure how common this is in Austria is a form a minority government and govern on an issue by issue basis.  That would seem the best, but again does this ever happen in Austria.  At least on any given issue, Kurz has three separate parties he can turn to giving him flexibility.

[mileslunn]

Julia Herr, the leader of the left-extremist SJ/Young Socialists (the youth organisation of the SPÖ) and Austrian counterpart to the German Kevin Kühnert (JUSOS), has been elected to parliament.



© Herr's Facebook page

Frau Herr is an arch-left radical, who wants to nationalize banks, companies and the real-estate market and who wants to "move beyond capitalism".

The SPÖ needs a revolution to stop their slide in the polls and at elections, but I'm not sure people like her(r) are the answer ...

So the AOC of Austria or perhaps Jeremy Corbyn of Austria?  She sounds a little too far to the left if you ask me.  Although couldn't SPO and Greens merge perhaps for a stronger left as it seems not just in Austria but most Western countries, blue collar workers are ditching traditional social democratic parties, while it is more your urban younger voters even those with above average incomes who are embracing left of centre parties.

[mileslunn]

What are some of the more extreme policies Julia Herr promotes.  Does she want to nationalize a whole bunch of industries?  How about for taxes, how does she think they should go.  Is she one of those who favours a top marginal rate of 90% like some on the left do (Austria's top rate is 55% which is I believe in the top 5 highest on earth right now).  Also how about for welfare state, although to be fair unlike English speaking countries Austria has a far more generous one so may not sound so radical.

That being said Jeremy Corbyn came shockingly close to winning in 2017 and in the US Bernie Sanders did surprisingly well.  But both of those countries have much higher levels of inequality than Austria does thus easier to sell to those upset with status quo.  And even those two didn't win and its questionable if Sanders would have won in a general election and its quite possible in UK, Labour might have won outright with a more moderate leader.  I would though think with SPO they should probably have a more urban focus  since not sure if good enough, but if they dominated urban areas and won the suburbs, that would seem the most obvious path to power.  But maybe I have too much of Anglo-Saxon country bias as not sure if this urban goes left, rural goes right and suburbs go with the winner works in Austria.