Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[DL]

New Demox Research poll published in the „Presse“ (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

[DL]

What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?

[DL]

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

[DL]

IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
19% ÖVP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
13% ÖVP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jörg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.

In other words they are the modern day equivalent of the Roehm wing of the early Nazi party - before "you know who" had them all killed off.

Seriously though I surprised that the NEOS party wouldn't do better among LGBTQ people. I would have thought that they would be highly appealing to the subset of gay men in particular who are "I'm rich, beautiful and successful (or I at least want to identify with rich, beautiful successful people) and therefore I want low taxes and less government regulation - but keep me safe from that socially conservative religious crap"

[DL]

10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).

I'm aware of that - but its very marginal. If I were trying to engineer a party that was specifically designed to appeal to that more economically conservative segment of LGBTQ people - it would look a lot like NEOS. Why would anyone LGBTQ who was more right of centre vote OVP or FPO when NEOS seems like a party that would be so perfect for them? (well OK, I guess for the FPO voters maybe NEOS isn't racist enough)

[DL]

All this poll shows is that homosexuals here are not a homogeneous voter block, like a 2-party system in the US would suggest, where gays and lesbians vote 80%+ Democratic.

That goes without saying...but if the US had proportional representation and 5 or 6 parties represented in Congress, i suspect that percentage of LGBTQ people who would vote for a small party representing the homophobic, anti-intellectual, evangelical Christian wing of the GOP led by some sarah Palin or Mike Pence type - would be in low single digits...

[DL]

LGBTQ+ people in the US isn't a heterogeneous political group either (pun sort of half intended), even though most of them fall with-in the big tent of the democratic party, but you get everything from your Mayor Pete is our sexy lord and savior centrist type to the Mayor Pete is a Conservative fraud and only Bernie Sanders can overthrow capitalist oppression socialist type...

As for the gay voters who votes for parties like the FPÖ or Sweden Democrats, they (based on my own non-scientific anecdotal experience) range from people who're mostly just worried about anti-gay sentiments among non-European immigrants, to people who're just plain racist. You don't really have to spend a lot of time on Grindr (or wherever the kids get their nudes these days) to realize that there are plenty of bigoted gay men out there.

As a matter of fact one of the first guys I went on a date with was an Australian exchange student who turned out to be an overt misogynist, who among other stuff claimed he only dated and slept with men because women were so "thoroughly disgusting" and spent a considerable amount of our date telling me how revolting Julia Gillard's body and personality was... Gays are not automatic angles is all I'm trying to say.

Then there are the ones whose role model is J. Edgar Hoover

[DL]

Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?

[DL]

A prominent SPÖ-unionist has called billionaire and multimillion ÖVP-donor Heidi Horten a "heavily botoxed lady with her 2 million € necklace on".

Judging from that picture...he has a point

[DL]

is it fair to say that NEOS is essentially an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany?

[DL]

My understanding is that at one time the FPO was very much the Austrian sister party to the FDP - but then they got taken over by far right elements and evolved from being a quasi-liberal free market party into more of populist xenophobic party and that NEOS is a bit of an attempt to recreate the old FPO that was more socially liberal and often formed coalitions with the SPO in the 70s and 80s.

is that correct?

[DL]

Looking at some of the predictions and possible last minute trends, what if the FPO does really badly and falls to say 17% and the Pilz Party gets over the 4% hurdle and the OVP doesn’t get the gains they were expecting and is stuck in the low 30s. Is it possible that OVP/FPO falls short of a majority and so that coalition is no longer even viable

[DL]

Sounds like what Kurz really wants is another OVP/FPO government but with his party being much stronger and the FPO much weaker than before.

[DL]

I would only rate the chances of ÖVP-FPÖ losing their majority to around 30%.

To me 30% chance of OVP-FPO losing their majority is much more of a chance than i would ever have thought possible. Would the Greens be willing to back an OVP government or would their voters revolt over that? Would we go back to the comfortable old shoe of a OVP-SPO "grand coalition"?

[DL]

In other words the Greens will have learned to "be careful what you wish for"...actually having the balamce of power in a minority parliament can put a party in a very difficult position. In some ways its easier to have no power and be able to just oppose everything and speak to the desires of your voters.

[DL]

I guess the danger for the Greens is that if they become a junior coalition partner to the OVP and Kurz continues with his attacks on immigrants and LGBTQ people, the Greens could end up suffering the same fate as the Lib Dems in the UK in 2015 when their voters révoltes over them supporting the Tories and all their austerity

[DL]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

A Jamaica coalition would imply a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition, but since the OVP and the Greens together already likely have a majority - why include NEOS?

[DL]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

[DL]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

Is NEOS really right-wing?

Is Macron right wing? I mean, no, but a significant number of people to his left nevertheless think so.

My understanding is that NEOS is basically an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany. Very rightwing and quasi-libertarian on economic issues and relatively liberal on social issues.

[DL]

What are the chances that any seats will change hands once all the postal votes are added in tomorrow?

[DL]

Or if you see the ÖVP and their voters as right and half of NEOS as right, it was:

58% right
42% left

As always here.

I seem to recall that in the 70s and 80s the SPO would win or come close to winning absolute majorities

[DL]

What's the story behind the Greens doing so well in Voralberg?

[DL]

If I'm not mistaken Styria is the only province in Austria where the KPO has seats. Could this be the start of them becoming some Austrian equivalent of the Linke party and eventually getting seats in the nationalrat?