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  Impending demographic crisis in China....
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(CT) The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« on: January 02, 2019, 03:45:57 am »

...has been in the works for some time, but it seems like with many other places around the world, countries that are having fewer children end up having even fewer than originally estimated.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2180339/china-birth-rate-expected-fall-lowest-level-2000-creating-new

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The number of children born in China in 2018 is expected to have dropped to the lowest level since 2000 after a year that “will be remembered as a historical turning point for Chinese population”, signaling a “demographic crisis” that threatens already struggling economic growth prospects, mainland media and researchers said.

The final figure for China births in 2018 will drop below 15 million, or more than two million fewer than in 2017, the state-run tabloid Global Times reported.

If confirmed, it will fall far short of the family planning authority’s previous estimates of up to 20 million births.



How big of an issue is this for China going forward and what implications will it have on their ability to project power economically on the global stage?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2019, 03:52:41 am »

15 million births or slightly lower would just be "back to normal" for China and is certainly not a "crisis".

We have to remember that there was a quick rush among younger couples to get an additional 2nd child over the previous 2 years, when the 1-child-policy was relaxed.

That led to a brief increase in births in 2016 and 2017 and in 2018 it just went down to normal levels, because couples are not interested in getting 3 kids these days (too expensive).

But even with 15 million births in a country of 1400 million, the birth rate is still above 1% and therefore much higher than in European countries, while the death rate is only at 0.7% - so there is still a natural increase of 5-6 million people each year.

The numbers from other countries nearby, such as Taiwan, South Korea and especially Japan do not bode well for China in the long-term tough, but China is still miles away from their situation.

And even then it would not be bad: a declining population would be good for the World.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2019, 04:53:06 am »

And even then it would not be bad: a declining population would be good for the World.

When do you think China's population will start to decline?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2019, 05:15:32 am »

And even then it would not be bad: a declining population would be good for the World.

When do you think China's population will start to decline?

Hard to tell because China's government might fully scrap birth control in the near future, which could lead to another brief increase in births, but eventually it will drop again.

Currently (2018), China has ~15 million births and about 10 million deaths.

The death rate is only increasing slowly and might reach 11 million by 2030.

So the big question will be how births develop. I don't see them dropping below 13-14 million until 2030 and certainly not below the number of deaths.

Which means at least until 2035 the Chinese population will not decline.

It will likely hit 1.46 Bio. people in 2035 before it starts declining in a slow manner.

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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2019, 05:36:28 am »

The fertility rate of 1.6 is already below the 1.8 in the US.  But Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Singapore have 1.2 or 1.3, so 1.6 is certainly not the lowest that the Han people go.
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dead0man
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« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2019, 11:17:57 am »

Of all the "impending crisis'" in the PRC, the "demographics" one ranks, what, 6th?

Pollution, a huge and growing middle class that's starting to want things the PRC can't deliver (like less pollution), no friends except Pakistan, paper military, fake economical numbers, mass corruption at all levels, state control of all the important industries and banks....probably several more I can't think of off the top of my head.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2019, 11:23:53 am »

Of all the "impending crisis'" in the PRC, the "demographics" one ranks, what, 6th?

Pollution, a huge and growing middle class that's starting to want things the PRC can't deliver (like less pollution), no friends except Pakistan, paper military, fake economical numbers, mass corruption at all levels, state control of all the important industries and banks....probably several more I can't think of off the top of my head.

Well, it's a longer-term crisis, at least (after all, the missing children not born in 2018 wouldn't be in the workforce for another 18-25 years, and until then lower childcare costs are probably a boost to the economy overall), though a potentially more dangerous one than some others. But a more than 15% drop in fertility in a single year is... dramatic, to say the least.
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