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Author Topic: States where suburbs are more Republican than rural areas  (Read 1296 times)
Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« on: January 02, 2019, 11:46:12 am »

Now this is interesting.

New Hampshire https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/new-hampshire/senate
West Virginia https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia
North Carolina https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president
South Carolina https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/south-carolina/president
Arizona https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president
California https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/california
Montana https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/montana
Probably Massachusetts


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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2019, 11:51:24 am »

The differences in some of these states (NC, NH, CA, MT, WV) are not statistically significant because either the Trump/Clinton splits are very similar or one of the sample sizes is really small (Montana suburbs, I'm looking at you.) In SC, there is surely an impact from rural areas being more African-American than suburban areas.
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« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2019, 12:06:28 pm »


Yeah, thats correct. The MA suburbs are more Red than the rurals.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2019, 12:53:42 pm »

Probably Alaska

Hawaii wouldn't technically have suburbs, but I would say Hawaii and Alaska are the only states where urban areas are more Republican than non-urban areas.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2019, 01:36:28 pm »

Wisconsin used to be a pretty quintessential example of this
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« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2019, 11:50:01 pm »

Seems this broader question comes up every month or so. Last year, I used muon's UCC delineations to calculate the lean of "metro" and "rural" classifications for each state for the past 2 presidential elections: by and large, the "metro" area is a combination of urban and suburban counties, while the "rural" area is obviously rural counties.



You'll find loads of maps and spreadsheet data with results from the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the above link, including hypothetical EC outcomes, polarization margins, and swings.

In all, there are 7 states where the metro county clusters are more Republican than the rural county clusters:

State (Pct Pt Diff; Margin)
  • Alaska (? pts)
  • Arizona (2 pts)
  • Hawaii (10 pts)
  • Massachusetts (18 pts)
  • Mississippi (2 pts)
  • New Hampshire (8 pts)
  • South Carolina (12 pts)

I know this isn't directly the same thing as is being asked (presumably you're wanting to exclude urban from suburban when comparing to rural areas), but this is the baseline. There are likely several more when excluding the urban centers.
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2019, 01:51:54 am »

Probably Alaska

Hawaii wouldn't technically have suburbs, but I would say Hawaii and Alaska are the only states where urban areas are more Republican than non-urban areas.

Definitely Alaska.

Hawaii has suburbs - or at least Honolulu does. Practically everything on Oahu outside of the Urban Honolulu CDP is suburban.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2019, 10:47:16 pm »

Seems this broader question comes up every month or so. Last year, I used muon's UCC delineations to calculate the lean of "metro" and "rural" classifications for each state for the past 2 presidential elections: by and large, the "metro" area is a combination of urban and suburban counties, while the "rural" area is obviously rural counties.



You'll find loads of maps and spreadsheet data with results from the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the above link, including hypothetical EC outcomes, polarization margins, and swings.

In all, there are 7 states where the metro county clusters are more Republican than the rural county clusters:

State (Pct Pt Diff; Margin)
  • Alaska (? pts)
  • Arizona (2 pts)
  • Hawaii (10 pts)
  • Massachusetts (18 pts)
  • Mississippi (2 pts)
  • New Hampshire (8 pts)
  • South Carolina (12 pts)

I know this isn't directly the same thing as is being asked (presumably you're wanting to exclude urban from suburban when comparing to rural areas), but this is the baseline. There are likely several more when excluding the urban centers.
The reason I looked to exit polls is that there are rural areas even in "urban" counties. What constitutes urban/rural (and especially suburban) is very subjective though.
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2019, 02:30:36 pm »

I'm surprised only one person mentioned Wisconsin. The Milwaukee suburbs are still heavily R, and might vote more R in the 2022 midterms IF Trump isn't president anymore.
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2019, 02:39:09 pm »

Defining suburb can be pretty tricky especially in places that grow out rather than up.  In the Atlanta metro, Fulton county must be urban because it had Atlanta in it, but is N. Fulton really different from Cherokee or Forsyth?  DeKalb is suburban because it was the first suburban county in Georgia, but is it really much different than Atlanta now?
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2019, 04:38:59 pm »

North Carolina and California are surprising. I doubt NC would still be if controlled for race, but even then I would doubt the methodology.

Mississippi qualifies for the same reason as South Carolina - rural blacks.

For exit polls, is urban/suburban/rural self defined or decided by the exit poller?

Minnesota was at the Congressional level up to 2018.

Oklahoma used to be (even urban+suburban was to the right of rural), but not anymore.
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2019, 06:45:17 pm »

Defining suburb can be pretty tricky especially in places that grow out rather than up.  In the Atlanta metro, Fulton county must be urban because it had Atlanta in it, but is N. Fulton really different from Cherokee or Forsyth?  DeKalb is suburban because it was the first suburban county in Georgia, but is it really much different than Atlanta now?
I think the perimeter is a fairly good boundary. As for Hawaii, I'd consider anything north/west of Pearl City/Aiea plus Kailua/Kaneohe to be the suburbs.
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2019, 08:28:38 pm »

Why is rural CA so democratic
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2019, 08:49:20 pm »

Why is rural CA so democratic

Because most statistics count the Central valley and the North coast as rural, which have more Hispanics and Super-Liberals then CA-01/rural bits of 04 and 08 have conservatives. In contrast, OC/SD/Riverside/San Bernardino all have conservative parts and can vote GOP in a 60-40 race thanks solely to whites.
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2019, 09:09:14 pm »

Why is rural CA so democratic

Because most statistics count the Central valley and the North coast as rural, which have more Hispanics and Super-Liberals then CA-01/rural bits of 04 and 08 have conservatives. In contrast, OC/SD/Riverside/San Bernardino all have conservative parts and can vote GOP in a 60-40 race thanks solely to whites.

also aren't there quite a few ski counties like Alpine?
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2019, 09:57:57 pm »

Why is rural CA so democratic

Because most statistics count the Central valley and the North coast as rural, which have more Hispanics and Super-Liberals then CA-01/rural bits of 04 and 08 have conservatives. In contrast, OC/SD/Riverside/San Bernardino all have conservative parts and can vote GOP in a 60-40 race thanks solely to whites.

also aren't there quite a few ski counties like Alpine?

Oh yeah, but those are small fries compared to places like Mendocino or Merced.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2019, 03:23:19 pm »

I'm surprised only one person mentioned Wisconsin. The Milwaukee suburbs are still heavily R, and might vote more R in the 2022 midterms IF Trump isn't president anymore.
In 2012 with Trump not on the ballot, the rural areas still came out slightly more Republican than the suburbs. The Madison suburbs bring down Republican margins.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/WI/president/

Also, Minnesota was a classic suburban Republican/rural Democrat state until very recently.


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« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2019, 03:54:47 pm »

Minnesota was a classic suburban Republican/rural Democrat state until very recently.
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