Statewide bellwethers?

[Politician]

Counties that track closely with the results in their states.

AL: Talladega
AZ: Maricopa
AR: Conway
CA: Santa Barbara
CO: Larimer
CT: New London
DE: NONE
FL: Pinellas
GA:
ID: Power
IL: Lake
IN: Allen
IA: Boone
KS: Sedgwick
KY: Campbell
LA: West Felicinia
ME: Lincoln
MD: Howard
MA: Norfolk
MI: Saginaw
MN: Olmsted
MS: Scott
MO: St. Charles
MT: Cascade
NE: Sarpy
NV: Washoe
NH: Hillsborough
NJ: Burlington
NM: Soccoro
NY: Albany
NC: New Hanover
ND: Richland
OH: Wood
OK: Osage
OR: Lincoln
PA: Erie
RI: Washington
SC: Beaufort
SD: Lincoln
TN: Rutherford
TX: Tarrant
UT: Weber
VT: Lamoille
VA: Prince Edward
WA: Snohomish
WV: Putnam
WI: Richland
WY: Fremont

[TDAS04]

For South Dakota, Lincoln sort of makes sense; at least by going off of last presidential election.  But before that it would have been Codington, which had been at most a couple points off the statewide result going back to the 1980s.  Codington also voted for the winners both when John Thune lost to Tim Johnson, and when Thune defeated Tom Daschle.

You're way wrong about Utah.  Weber is a much better bellwether county than Utah.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

[cvparty]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

[cvparty]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

so not being a bellwether is not nearly enough evidence for it not being a bellwether? how about every statewide race since 2013?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

so not being a bellwether is not nearly enough evidence for it not being a bellwether? how about every statewide race since 2013?

In the 2017 gubernatorial election it was less than a point off from the statewide result. In every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's tracked close to the overall statewide result. Need I any more evidence?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

[Rookie Yinzer]

GA:

Aren't we the most inelastic state in the nation?

[cvparty]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

so not being a bellwether is not nearly enough evidence for it not being a bellwether? how about every statewide race since 2013?

In the 2017 gubernatorial election it was less than a point off from the statewide result. In every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's tracked close to the overall statewide result. Need I any more evidence?

no it wasn't. you're thinking of burlington. and how can you exclude the 2016 presidential when we're talking about *current* bellwethers lol. it used to be a bellwether i agree but in many senses even 2008 was an eternity ago.

fort bend county is a republican county. in every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's voted republican. need i any more evidence it leans republican?.

[cvparty]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

one decade ago it was close to the statewide margin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

so not being a bellwether is not nearly enough evidence for it not being a bellwether? how about every statewide race since 2013?

In the 2017 gubernatorial election it was less than a point off from the statewide result. In every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's tracked close to the overall statewide result. Need I any more evidence?

no it wasn't. you're thinking of burlington. and how can you exclude the 2016 presidential when we're talking about *current* bellwethers lol. it used to be a bellwether i agree but in many senses even 2008 was an eternity ago.

fort bend county is a republican county. in every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's voted republican. need i any more evidence it leans republican?.

No, i'm not thinking about Burlington (which is more D than the state as a whole).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

one decade ago it was close to the statewide margin

NJ 2017 (statewide): 56.0%-41.9% Murphy
Atlantic County: 55.1%-42.5% Murphy
still close

fact is, you can't discount its bellwether status just because of how it voted in 2016 presidential and NJ-SEN 2018. Sorry.

[cvparty]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

one decade ago it was close to the statewide margin

NJ 2017 (statewide): 56.0%-41.9% Murphy
Atlantic County: 55.1%-42.5% Murphy
still close

fact is, you can't discount its bellwether status just because of how it voted in 2016 presidential and NJ-SEN 2018. Sorry.

thank you for proving me wrong. atlantic is a bellwether county because it voted close to the statewide margin in one recent low-turnout race. and also 7 years ago and 11 years ago (and beyond) because those races from a decade+ ago are so relevant. AND we don't count the two most recent high-profile, high-turnout statewide races that occurred in which atlantic voted significantly to the right of the state.

NJ: Menendez: +11
Atlantic: Hugin +1 (R+12)

[cvparty]

In the 2017 gubernatorial election it was less than a point off from the statewide result. In every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's tracked close to the overall statewide result. Need I any more evidence?

no it wasn't. you're thinking of burlington. and how can you exclude the 2016 presidential when we're talking about *current* bellwethers lol. it used to be a bellwether i agree but in many senses even 2008 was an eternity ago.

fort bend county is a republican county. in every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's voted republican. need i any more evidence it leans republican?.

No, i'm not thinking about Burlington (which is more D than the state as a whole).

atlantic (more R than the state as a whole). also

NJ 2017 (statewide): 56.0%-41.9% Murphy
Atlantic County: 55.1%-42.5% Murphy

.6%+.9% > 1% bud, you just proved yourself wrong. now burlington: 56.4%-41.8% murphy, that's less than a point off

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

.6%+.9% > 1% bud, you just proved yourself wrong. now burlington: 56.4%-41.8% murphy, that's less than a point off

slight correction: I meant to imply that it was within a point of the statewide Murphy %, not the margin itself, which is related obviously but not the same thing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

one decade ago it was close to the statewide margin

NJ 2017 (statewide): 56.0%-41.9% Murphy
Atlantic County: 55.1%-42.5% Murphy
still close

fact is, you can't discount its bellwether status just because of how it voted in 2016 presidential and NJ-SEN 2018. Sorry.

thank you for proving me wrong. atlantic is a bellwether county because it voted close to the statewide margin in one recent low-turnout race. and also 7 years ago and 11 years ago (and beyond) because those races from a decade+ ago are so relevant. AND we don't count the two most recent high-profile, high-turnout statewide races that occurred in which atlantic voted significantly to the right of the state./quote]

I consider the 2016 presidential election results and the 2018 senate results as an element that ought to be considered, but far from the only element to be in the mix.

[AN63093]

Nice work on compiling a list OP- but I think there are better choices for VA than Prince Edward.  That county has historically always been more D leaning than the state as whole.. it was really only close to the state margin in 2016, but that is because it trended R and it's been losing population.  It's actually a candidate to flip R in the future, if not in 2020, then in 2024.

My suggestion would be Montgomery County.  It was a little more R than the state-wide margin in '16, and Romney won it (barely) in '12, but other than that, if you go back cycle by cycle, it tends to vote very close to the state margin.. going all the way back to the 60s (before that, it was generally much more Republican than the state as a whole.. also, one other exception would be the 90s, when Clinton outperformed the rest of the state there, but even then, he just barely won it).

It is also trending D, so I suspect the Dems will win it again in '20 and it could end up being pretty close to the eventual state margin.

A good former bellwether was Loudoun, which almost exactly tracked the state-wide margin until recently.  A couple potential new ones are Chesterfield and VA Beach, which are potential flips for '20 and are trending D, but the demographics are such that I don't expect the bottom to completely fall out for the GOP like it did in e.g., Fairfax.  So they could potentially end up similar to the state wide margin for at least a few cycles, if not more.

[MT Treasurer]

Lake County, MT is a slightly better bellwether than Cascade. It has been eerily accurate for a long time.

[lfromnj]

Ill take burlington over atlantic any day lol.

One voted within 3 points of the statewide margin for 2016,2017 and 2018 while the other was a 7 points off in 2016 and 12 points off in 2018 and only really close in 2017.