States where suburbs are more Republican than rural areas
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:35:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  States where suburbs are more Republican than rural areas
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: States where suburbs are more Republican than rural areas  (Read 2869 times)
Joe McCarthy Was Right
Rookie
**
Posts: 146
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 02, 2019, 11:46:12 AM »

Now this is interesting.

New Hampshire https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/new-hampshire/senate
West Virginia https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia
North Carolina https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president
South Carolina https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/south-carolina/president
Arizona https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president
California https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/california
Montana https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/montana
Probably Massachusetts


Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2019, 11:51:24 AM »

The differences in some of these states (NC, NH, CA, MT, WV) are not statistically significant because either the Trump/Clinton splits are very similar or one of the sample sizes is really small (Montana suburbs, I'm looking at you.) In SC, there is surely an impact from rural areas being more African-American than suburban areas.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2019, 12:06:28 PM »


Yeah, thats correct. The MA suburbs are more Red than the rurals.
Logged
Joe McCarthy Was Right
Rookie
**
Posts: 146
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2019, 12:53:42 PM »

Probably Alaska

Hawaii wouldn't technically have suburbs, but I would say Hawaii and Alaska are the only states where urban areas are more Republican than non-urban areas.
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2019, 01:36:28 PM »

Wisconsin used to be a pretty quintessential example of this
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2019, 11:50:01 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2019, 11:53:28 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

Seems this broader question comes up every month or so. Last year, I used muon's UCC delineations to calculate the lean of "metro" and "rural" classifications for each state for the past 2 presidential elections: by and large, the "metro" area is a combination of urban and suburban counties, while the "rural" area is obviously rural counties.



You'll find loads of maps and spreadsheet data with results from the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the above link, including hypothetical EC outcomes, polarization margins, and swings.

In all, there are 7 states where the metro county clusters are more Republican than the rural county clusters:

State (Pct Pt Diff; Margin)
  • Alaska (? pts)
  • Arizona (2 pts)
  • Hawaii (10 pts)
  • Massachusetts (18 pts)
  • Mississippi (2 pts)
  • New Hampshire (8 pts)
  • South Carolina (12 pts)

I know this isn't directly the same thing as is being asked (presumably you're wanting to exclude urban from suburban when comparing to rural areas), but this is the baseline. There are likely several more when excluding the urban centers.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2019, 01:51:54 AM »

Probably Alaska

Hawaii wouldn't technically have suburbs, but I would say Hawaii and Alaska are the only states where urban areas are more Republican than non-urban areas.

Definitely Alaska.

Hawaii has suburbs - or at least Honolulu does. Practically everything on Oahu outside of the Urban Honolulu CDP is suburban.
Logged
Joe McCarthy Was Right
Rookie
**
Posts: 146
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2019, 10:47:16 PM »

Seems this broader question comes up every month or so. Last year, I used muon's UCC delineations to calculate the lean of "metro" and "rural" classifications for each state for the past 2 presidential elections: by and large, the "metro" area is a combination of urban and suburban counties, while the "rural" area is obviously rural counties.



You'll find loads of maps and spreadsheet data with results from the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the above link, including hypothetical EC outcomes, polarization margins, and swings.

In all, there are 7 states where the metro county clusters are more Republican than the rural county clusters:

State (Pct Pt Diff; Margin)
  • Alaska (? pts)
  • Arizona (2 pts)
  • Hawaii (10 pts)
  • Massachusetts (18 pts)
  • Mississippi (2 pts)
  • New Hampshire (8 pts)
  • South Carolina (12 pts)

I know this isn't directly the same thing as is being asked (presumably you're wanting to exclude urban from suburban when comparing to rural areas), but this is the baseline. There are likely several more when excluding the urban centers.
The reason I looked to exit polls is that there are rural areas even in "urban" counties. What constitutes urban/rural (and especially suburban) is very subjective though.
Logged
Scottholes 2.0
Wisconsinite
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 905
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2019, 02:30:36 PM »

I'm surprised only one person mentioned Wisconsin. The Milwaukee suburbs are still heavily R, and might vote more R in the 2022 midterms IF Trump isn't president anymore.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2019, 02:39:09 PM »

Defining suburb can be pretty tricky especially in places that grow out rather than up.  In the Atlanta metro, Fulton county must be urban because it had Atlanta in it, but is N. Fulton really different from Cherokee or Forsyth?  DeKalb is suburban because it was the first suburban county in Georgia, but is it really much different than Atlanta now?
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2019, 04:38:59 PM »

North Carolina and California are surprising. I doubt NC would still be if controlled for race, but even then I would doubt the methodology.

Mississippi qualifies for the same reason as South Carolina - rural blacks.

For exit polls, is urban/suburban/rural self defined or decided by the exit poller?

Minnesota was at the Congressional level up to 2018.

Oklahoma used to be (even urban+suburban was to the right of rural), but not anymore.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2019, 06:45:17 PM »

Defining suburb can be pretty tricky especially in places that grow out rather than up.  In the Atlanta metro, Fulton county must be urban because it had Atlanta in it, but is N. Fulton really different from Cherokee or Forsyth?  DeKalb is suburban because it was the first suburban county in Georgia, but is it really much different than Atlanta now?
I think the perimeter is a fairly good boundary. As for Hawaii, I'd consider anything north/west of Pearl City/Aiea plus Kailua/Kaneohe to be the suburbs.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2019, 08:28:38 PM »

Why is rural CA so democratic
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2019, 08:49:20 PM »


Because most statistics count the Central valley and the North coast as rural, which have more Hispanics and Super-Liberals then CA-01/rural bits of 04 and 08 have conservatives. In contrast, OC/SD/Riverside/San Bernardino all have conservative parts and can vote GOP in a 60-40 race thanks solely to whites.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2019, 09:09:14 PM »


Because most statistics count the Central valley and the North coast as rural, which have more Hispanics and Super-Liberals then CA-01/rural bits of 04 and 08 have conservatives. In contrast, OC/SD/Riverside/San Bernardino all have conservative parts and can vote GOP in a 60-40 race thanks solely to whites.

also aren't there quite a few ski counties like Alpine?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2019, 09:57:57 PM »


Because most statistics count the Central valley and the North coast as rural, which have more Hispanics and Super-Liberals then CA-01/rural bits of 04 and 08 have conservatives. In contrast, OC/SD/Riverside/San Bernardino all have conservative parts and can vote GOP in a 60-40 race thanks solely to whites.

also aren't there quite a few ski counties like Alpine?

Oh yeah, but those are small fries compared to places like Mendocino or Merced.
Logged
Joe McCarthy Was Right
Rookie
**
Posts: 146
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2019, 03:23:19 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2019, 03:47:47 PM by Joe McCarthy Was Right »

I'm surprised only one person mentioned Wisconsin. The Milwaukee suburbs are still heavily R, and might vote more R in the 2022 midterms IF Trump isn't president anymore.
In 2012 with Trump not on the ballot, the rural areas still came out slightly more Republican than the suburbs. The Madison suburbs bring down Republican margins.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/WI/president/

Also, Minnesota was a classic suburban Republican/rural Democrat state until very recently.


Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2019, 03:54:47 PM »

Minnesota was a classic suburban Republican/rural Democrat state until very recently.
Logged
Fwillb21
Rookie
**
Posts: 155
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2019, 12:46:48 AM »

Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 12 queries.