KY-GOV: Bevin reportedly considering withdrawing

[Lechasseur]

If Bevin drops out, this race becomes Titanium R.

Agreed

Depending on whom they nominate to succeed him, the Kentucky Republican Party will be better off with him out of the race. 

Most likely yes

Will people not learn from Bredesen?  This race is Likely R with or without Bevin.

Bredesen was a flawed candidate and Blackburn is more popular than Bevin

Bredesen was actually by far the best candidate the Democrats had in Tennessee imo tbh. On the other hand I agree with you that Blackburn is more popular and a stronger candidate than Bevin is.

Also Senate races are different from gubernatorial ones.

Agreed

[IceSpear]

Will people not learn from Bredesen?  This race is Likely R with or without Bevin.

Not saying you're wrong in Kentucky's per se, but governors races don't work the same way in most cases as Senate races. Just look at Kansas and Massachusetts for example.

That's what everyone said about Oklahoma a few months ago when I insisted it was safe R, and everyone ridiculed me and said it was clearly a toss up because "muh gubernatorial races are different!" and "muh Fallin 10% approval!"

[Politician]

Run, Bevin, Run!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

[IceSpear]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

[Continential]

Run, Bevin, Run!

[smoltchanov]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

[Zaybay]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

[smoltchanov]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

AFAIK, many of these Democrats differ substantially from national party on many social issues (abortions, guns, and so on).

[Zaybay]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

AFAIK, many of these Democrats differ substantially from national party on many social issues (abortions, guns, and so on).

Not really. The top Dems, such as Beshar, have pretty standard positions, and many Democrats in the state house and senate, who occupy hard R territory, have pretty standard D positions(one is even an uber-progressive).

[smoltchanov]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

AFAIK, many of these Democrats differ substantially from national party on many social issues (abortions, guns, and so on).

Not really. The top Dems, such as Beshar, have pretty standard positions, and many Democrats in the state house and senate, who occupy hard R territory, have pretty standard D positions(one is even an uber-progressive).

Nevertheless i am absolutely sure, that substantial number of Democrats in state legislature are socially conservative (fewer, then in the past, because many were replaced by Republicans, but still - many).

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

[Pollster]

Bevin gets a primary challenger

[smoltchanov]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

[QAnonKelly]

I’d donate to him if he primaries McConnell because that mofo has got to go.

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1083484207240888320

[Bidenworth2020]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

Yeah, that's why Democrats picked up 8 seats in the state Senate this year that Trump won with 80%+. I really wouldn't be so confident, if I were you.

[smoltchanov]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

If it's so predetermined - what interest to discuss it (election in Kentucky)  at all? We all know, that Repulican candidate here will be right-winger, and IF his election is "guaranteed" - forget about this election and move on.

[Suburbia]

I’d donate to him if he primaries McConnell because that mofo has got to go.

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

Yeah, that's why Democrats picked up 8 seats in the state Senate this year that Trump won with 80%+. I really wouldn't be so confident, if I were you.

The same thing happened in Oklahoma, no?

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

If it's so predetermined - what interest to discuss it (election in Kentucky)  at all? We all know, that Repulican candidate here will be right-winger, and IF his election is "guaranteed" - forget about this election and move on.

I wouldn't be discussing it if everyone would just accept it's safe R. There's a reason why I posted 1000x more often about Marsha Blackburn's inevitability than John Barrasso's inevitability.

[MT Treasurer]

I wouldn't be discussing it if everyone would just accept it's safe R. There's a reason why I posted 1000x more often about Marsha Blackburn's inevitability than John Barrasso's inevitability.

It’s as safe R as AL-SEN and WV-SEN, right?

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't be discussing it if everyone would just accept it's safe R. There's a reason why I posted 1000x more often about Marsha Blackburn's inevitability than John Barrasso's inevitability.

It’s as safe R as AL-SEN and WV-SEN, right?

No, it's a toss up like TN-Sen, ND-Sen, and OK-Gov because polarization doesn't exist and red states love electing Democrats.

Also, I acknowledged my Racist Hick Theorem needed more work a long time ago and rated WV-Sen as a toss up, which ended up being much closer to the mark than all the "Likely D/Manchin easily wins by double digits" predictions which were so prevalent here. AL-Sen led to the pedophilia disclaimer, which I'm pretty sure does not apply to Bevin. Mind models get better and better the more data you have!

[Bidenworth2020]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

Yeah, that's why Democrats picked up 8 seats in the state Senate this year that Trump won with 80%+. I really wouldn't be so confident, if I were you.

The same thing happened in Oklahoma, no?

no?we actually lost a ton of dixiecrat seats, iirc