KY-GOV: Bevin reportedly considering withdrawing

[IceSpear]

Your source is literally a Daily Kos diary? And people here are taking it seriously? lol

But on the 0.001% chance this is true, Bevin is an even bigger idiot than I thought he was. Racist KY Hicks are going to re-elect him no matter what because of the (R) next to his name. I'm pretty sure even he is smart enough to realize this.

[IceSpear]

Will people not learn from Bredesen?  This race is Likely Safe R with or without Bevin.

Don't forget Edmondson!

[IceSpear]

Will people not learn from Bredesen?  This race is Likely R with or without Bevin.

Not saying you're wrong in Kentucky's per se, but governors races don't work the same way in most cases as Senate races. Just look at Kansas and Massachusetts for example.

That's what everyone said about Oklahoma a few months ago when I insisted it was safe R, and everyone ridiculed me and said it was clearly a toss up because "muh gubernatorial races are different!" and "muh Fallin 10% approval!"

[IceSpear]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

Yeah, that's why Democrats picked up 8 seats in the state Senate this year that Trump won with 80%+. I really wouldn't be so confident, if I were you.

The same thing happened in Oklahoma, no?

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

If it's so predetermined - what interest to discuss it (election in Kentucky)  at all? We all know, that Repulican candidate here will be right-winger, and IF his election is "guaranteed" - forget about this election and move on.

I wouldn't be discussing it if everyone would just accept it's safe R. There's a reason why I posted 1000x more often about Marsha Blackburn's inevitability than John Barrasso's inevitability.

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't be discussing it if everyone would just accept it's safe R. There's a reason why I posted 1000x more often about Marsha Blackburn's inevitability than John Barrasso's inevitability.

It’s as safe R as AL-SEN and WV-SEN, right?

No, it's a toss up like TN-Sen, ND-Sen, and OK-Gov because polarization doesn't exist and red states love electing Democrats.

Also, I acknowledged my Racist Hick Theorem needed more work a long time ago and rated WV-Sen as a toss up, which ended up being much closer to the mark than all the "Likely D/Manchin easily wins by double digits" predictions which were so prevalent here. AL-Sen led to the pedophilia disclaimer, which I'm pretty sure does not apply to Bevin. Mind models get better and better the more data you have!

[IceSpear]

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

Yeah, that's why Democrats picked up 8 seats in the state Senate this year that Trump won with 80%+. I really wouldn't be so confident, if I were you.

The same thing happened in Oklahoma, no?

no?we actually lost a ton of dixiecrat seats, iirc

I didn't follow them closely, but I remember a lot of people here jerking off to the fact that Democrats were winning lots of Trump landslide districts in Oklahoma special elections. This was also used as justification for why Edmondson could/would win.