tomhguy
Rookie
Posts: 122
Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: -1.00
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« on: May 25, 2019, 05:37:27 AM » |
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« edited: May 25, 2019, 05:46:39 AM by tomhguy »
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Here are my UK (without Northern Ireland)predictions
BRX: 29 [+29], 30%
LD: 14 [+13], 20%
LAB: 12 [-8], 19%
CON: 7 [-12], 14%
GRN: 4 [+1], 11%
SNP: 3 [+1], 3%
PC: 1 [+0], 1%
CHG: 0 [+0], 1%
UKIP: 0 [-24), 1%
So I think that the Lib Dems will be used as a protest vote for Remainers, and the Brexit Party will be a protest vote for leavers/ Looking at turnout figures, the vote is up in remain areas, so I think that the higher turnout will mean that annoyed remainers will come out to vote Lib Dem. They may not necessarily agree with them on all of the issues, but they want to send a message to the Labour party that they need to change and change quickly. The Brexit Party will slightly underperform on the nationwide popular vote, yet get roughly the amount of MEPs that people are expecting. This is because the vote is down in the north, where I expect them to get most of their support. The conservative party will do slightly better than expected, and the greens will slightly underperform, with their vote mainly going to the Lib Dems.
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