2019 European Parliament Elections

[Former President tack50]

My first (probably bad) guess:

Spain (59 seats, 5 more than in 2014)

PSOE-S&D: 22% (14 seats, nc)
PP-EPP: 19.4% (12 seats, -4)
Cs-ALDE: 18.4% (11 seats, +9)
UP-GUE/NGL: 15% (9 seats, -3)
Vox-ECR: 14% (9 seats, +9)

ERC/Bildu/BNG coalition ("The Peoples decide")-G/EFA: 4% (2 seats, -1)
PNV/CC/CxG coalition ("European Coalition")-ALDE: 1.6% (1 seat, nc*)
Compromís/ChA/other allies coalition ("European Spring")-G/EFA: 1.6% (1 seat, nc)
PDECat-ALDE: 1% (0 seats, -2[++])

Miscellaneous others/blank/spoilt ballots: 3%

Turnout: 65% (only because it's the same day as the local elections, otherwise it'd be in the low 40s)

By EU group:

ALDE: 13
S&D: 12
EPP: 11
GUE/NGL: 9-10 (depending on whether Bildu stays here or moves back to G/EFA)
ECR: 9
G/EFA: 2-3 (depending on whether Bildu stays there or moves back to G/EFA)
EFDD: 0
ENF: 0

This is obviously subject to change depending on how the nationalists end up looking and how general election polls vary from here to May

*: Compared to PNV in 2014
++: Compared to CiU in 2014

[Former President tack50]

Overall it seems inevitable that the EPP-S&D "grand coalition" will clearly loose it's majority - that could make things interesting.

Worth noting that in practice, the grand coalition is actually EPP-ALDE-S&D and not just EPP-S&D.

Losing their majority will be something symbolic but not mean much in practice.

Now, the day that there's a GUE/NGL+Right wing Euroskeptics negative majority, that will be the big day for the EU (in a bad way in my opinion). Even EPP-ALDE-S&D losing their majority would already be a huge blow (but the Greens could join I imagine)