2019 European Parliament Elections

[Riegel2222]

Date:

23–26 May 2019



Notes:

Following the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU, the number of seats will be reduced from 751 to 705, 46 of the 73 lost seats are redistributed to the remaining member states.



Parties/Alliances:

EPP - European People's Party
center-right pro-Europe conservatives and christian democrats, such as the Christian Democratic Union in Germany

S&D - Socialists and Democrats
alliance of social democratic parties in Europe, mainly pro-Europe and center-left

ECR - European Conservatives and Reformists
eurosceptic conservative alliance, formerly including the Conservative Party in the UK

ALDE - Alliance of Liberals and Democrats
pro-Europe liberals, stand for more freedom of trade and enterprise, but also take liberal stances on social issues

Greens–EFA - Greens / European Free Alliance
alliance of Greens and regionalists/separatists, positioned environmentalist, pro-Europe and socially liberal

GUE-NGL - European United Left – Nordic Green Left
made up by left-wing socialists, communists and eurosceptic Greens, notable examples are Syriza in Greece and The Left in Germany

EFDD - Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy
consisting of eurosceptics, populists, libertarians and anti-establishment parties, such as formerly included UKIP and the 5 Star Movement in Italy

ENF - Europe of Nations and Freedom
alliance of right-wing nationalists, anti-immigration parties and hard eurosceptics, such as Marine Le-Pen's Rassemblement National

NI - Non-Inscripts
European parties without an alliance, include extremists and centrist independents

[Riegel2222]

I predict something like:

35% ÖVP-EPP (+8%)
23% SPÖ-S&D (-1%)
21% FPÖ-ENF (+1%)
10% NEOS-ALDE (+2%)
  7% Greens-EFA (-8%)
  3% Now-NI (+3%)
  1% Others (-5%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

19 seats (+1): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 5 FPÖ (+1), 2 NEOS (+1), 1 Greens (-2)

ÖVP is polling much lower in the EU-Elections than in the national elections plus the EU-Exit Party, which grabbed 2.8% in 2014, is running again and "others" are polling very high (at around 6%).

My prediction is something like


28.0% ÖVP-EPP (+1.0%)
25.6% SPÖ-S&D (-1.5%)
23.5% FPÖ-ENF (+3.8%)
9.8% NEOS-ALDE (+1.7%)
  7.2% Greens-EFA (-7.3%)
  3.4% EU-Exit Party-NI (+0.6%)
  1.6% Now-NI (+1.6%)
  0.9% Others (-2.9%)

Turnout: 57.2%

[Riegel2222]

That's a very strange prediction for several reasons:

The "others" that are currently polling at 6% (all EU polls conducted so far are by a single pollster !) will not materialize on election day IMO.

I think those are former Green voters from 2014, who are now unwilling to declare their leanings. They will likely not vote Green again, so either NEOS or ÖVP or stay home (that's why I think the ÖVP is significantly underpolled right now for the EU elections.) The ÖVP usually does better in EU elections than in national elections.

EU-STOP (well, their strange, excentric fundie of a party leader) wants to run again, yes. But first they have to collect 2.600 signatures again and then hope for another miracle like in 2014, when they polled 0.5% and ended up with almost 3%. So, a big "if" here ...

Your other results seem to be OK, but I think the SPÖ will do quite badly this year.

SPÖ will pull in a large portion of the 2014 Green voters considering their more "progressive" party line since they are running as an opposition to the current ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, which is not as popular among Green voters.

ÖVP are not running a candidate as charismatic and, more importantly, not as national-conservative as Sebastian Kurz. He has criticized Kurz for going contrary to the direction of the EU and putting national interests in first place.

FPÖ might be able to profit off that fact somewhat, however, the low voter turnout will disadvantage parties whose voters have low faith in politics or come from a lower social class.

Smaller parties like EU-STOP tend to not pop up in the race until a short time before the election, largely because they lack the budget for long-term campaigning and media coverage, plus they are benefiting from the flip flops and inconsistencies in European Parliament decisions by the FPÖ, such as opposing the ban on Glyphosate and abstaining from the Article 13 vote.