2016 Democratic primary: Former President Obama vs. Hillary Clinton

[President Johnson]

In 2012, Barack Obama very narrowly loses to Mitt Romney, who appears to be vulnerable in 2016. Barack Obama runs for a second non-consecutive term and only faces Hillary Clinton as serious primary contender. Who wins?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary wins handily, If Obama lost in 2012 he would be looked at a far different light than he is today(Especially if you compare the state of the economy in early 2016 to 2012).

I would say the primaries would be over after Super Tuesday or at best Super Tuesday 2

[Lechasseur]

Hillary wins handily, If Obama lost in 2012 he would be looked at a far different light than he is today(Especially if you compare the state of the economy in early 2016 to 2012).

I would say the primaries would be over after Super Tuesday or at best Super Tuesday 2

Probably this

[TrumanJohnson]

I think it all depends on how close the election is. Remember that Al Gore was considered as a candidate for 2004. If the election is something like 275-263 with Obama winning the popular vote, I could see him running again. Barring anything else (Obama would have had to really screw it up for Romney to get above 300 EVS) it's very likely. Honestly though I wouldn't want to see a rematch of the '08 DEM primaries. That would just be plain awkward.

[brucejoel99]

Say he narrowly lost to Romney in 2012, maybe even winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college. Things to consider if he tries to grab the nomination in 2016 & take another crack at Romney:

• Obama, always trim & fit, would be only 55 on Election Day 2016.
• Obama would likely still have a deep reservoir of support among key Democratic interest groups including (most importantly) African Americans, LGBT, young voters, & educated voters.
• Many Democrats might be inclined to give a historic president a second chance, reasoning he was dealt an impossibly bad economic hand by W. "Bush got two terms, & Obama just one? Please."
• While Hillary would definitely be his biggest rival in 2016, she doesn't seem as formidable as, say, Ronald Reagan was to a potential Gerald Ford comeback in 1980.
• It also depends on what would've happened to the economy under Romney, too. The economy could've ended up being pretty rough thanks to high levels of U.S. debt, & perhaps butterflies could've led to a possible eurozone implosion occurring. The Obama years might've been subject to some positive revisionist history by a friendly media.

I don't know about you, but I can definitely see that alternate universe in which the 2016 Democratic ticket consists of Former President Barack Obama & Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren lmao

[HillGoose]

I'd say about this. Obama wins delegate count and popular vote by small margins, ends up winning the nomination something around 2500 to 2100 delegates or so for Clinton.

In the general against Romney, assuming a similarly strong economy to OTL, I say this:

Romney / Ryan - 312 EV, 50.6% PV
Obama / Warren - 226 EV, 46.8% PV

But if we're going with brucejoel99's scenario of a worsened economy, maybe Eurozone implosion, etc. I'd say this:

Obama / Warren - 348 EV, 51.9% PV
Romney / Ryan - 190 EV, 47.4% PV

Basically OTL 2012 except flip North Carolina and NE-02.

[NewYorkExpress]

This time Clinton wins the nomination, as the Democratic Primary base reasons that Obama has already had his chance.

That said, because Clinton's margin of victory in the Primaries is narrow (basically, it's decided by a handful of Superdelegates), she's forced to pick Obama/repick Biden as her running mate, leaving her with no choice of her own to make.

As for the general, a lot depends on how Romney does, plus the European economy, but assuming Clinton is the winner, as I am, I would predict:

Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama 49% 275 Electoral Votes
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 47% 263 Electoral Votes

If Obama wins the nomination, he either picks Biden again, or picks someone completely different, since Hillary remains unlikely to ever accept being Vice President, and Obama's needs are very different. However, he will need a woman on the ticket, to compensate for Hillary losing the nomination.

Barack Obama/Kirsten Gillibrand 50% 284 Electoral Votes
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 47% 254 Electoral Votes

[Mr. Smith]

Probably Obama, because in spite of everything, Hillary just isn't a good campaigner, while Obama is.