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September 22, 2019, 09:34:58 pm
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  Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!  (Read 19095 times)
Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #225 on: September 05, 2019, 02:50:56 am »

Di Maio won another concession from Zingaretti in appointing a close ally as Secretary to the Presidency of the Council. Until very recently PD was intent on keeping that post for itself as a way to keep an eye on Conte (like Lega had last year). PD has given up a LOT from its original demands, and I honestly have no idea why given that they have much less to lose from a new election than M5S. Still, good news that they found an agreement.

Journalists have noted that Southerners are overrepresented in the new team, forming an outright majority of 11 out of 21. It makes some degree of sense given that M5S's voter base is largely Southern, but I like to think that they also want to spite the Lega. Also, there are only 7 women out of 21, not nearly the gender parity that Conte was supposedly trying to promote.

Lots of new (or at least not too seasoned) faces in the cabinet, although Franceschini did land a job in the end. The "heaviest" ministry for PD is obviously the Economy with Gualtieri, who will become the first explicitly partisan economy minister since 2011, which is a nice break from the post-Monti era of Italian politics. Toninelli is mercifully out of the infrastructure ministry, his run of it having been widely considered a disaster. De Micheli is close to Zingaretti and probably comes closest to being his "eyes" in the new government. She's relatively new and I'm curious to see how she does. Speranza from MDP is an interesting choice, since he has some very bad blood with the Renzi wing of the party. I'm also somewhat surprised that Nicola Morra didn't make it into the government team, he's a widely respected M5S parliamentary leader and is ideologically on the left wing of the party.

Swearing-in tomorrow morning, as Andrea said. Meaning we'll finally be rid of Salvini and be able to come back to a sane management of refugee arrivals.

It is totally possible that PD simply believes getting its hat handed to them by M5S is much better and even politically preferable than handing alt-right fascists total control of Italy through a new election. Politics are so cynical these days that we cannot compute an act of humble, patriotic duty as just that. At least with the finance AND interior ministries and a list of doable legislative demands PD still has a huge say in how Italy is governed. And it gives a real shot at keeping Salvini out of power for at least three years and quite possibly longer. Frankly this is how politics OUGHT to work and it is embarassing to Spain and everywhere else right now that Italy (of all countries) is showing how a people-centered politics works.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #226 on: September 05, 2019, 11:18:26 am »
« Edited: September 05, 2019, 01:14:41 pm by Secret Cavern Survivor »

That's a good point, yeah. I think there is genuine fear of an all-powerful Salvini among the PD's ranks (motivated both by cynical and altruistic considerations). It's hard to explain Renzi's about-face about governing with M5S or Zingaretti's insistence on making it work in the face of repeated humiliations otherwise.

Anyway, the new government was indeed sworn in this morning. Conte then swiftly called Von Der Leyen to indicate that, as rumored, Italy's nominee to the European Commission will be Paolo Gentiloni. He's a solid choice, a respected and seasoned international player who has been able to successfully argue Italy's case in Europe in the past. Even more important, he is being seriously considered for the Economic Affairs portfolio. Netting such a post would be a major diplomatic win for Italy, given that it is directly relevant to the budget negotiations that Italy repeatedly goes through with the EC (the current commissioner, Moscovici, was heavily involved in last year's budget fight).

Aside from that, the new Conte government's first act has been to challenge the constitutionality of a regional law in FVG on grounds that it discriminates against migrants. I don't know the details, but given who governs FVG right now, that's almost certainly a good move, and an obvious change of pace from the yellow-green days.

Confidence vote will be Monday in the House, Tuesday in the Senate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #227 on: September 06, 2019, 08:08:39 pm »

That's a good point, yeah. I think there is genuine fear of an all-powerful Salvini among the PD's ranks (motivated both by cynical and altruistic considerations). It's hard to explain Renzi's about-face about governing with M5S or Zingaretti's insistence on making it work in the face of repeated humiliations otherwise.


Confidence vote will be Monday in the House, Tuesday in the Senate.

This summer Salvini was saying he wanted "full powers". Consider the sinister implications of the two words. The fear within PD ranks was justified. Also, it's remarkable that apparently Salvini fell out the Trump's favour due to his double play with Russia. In spite I find Luigi Di Maio even more disturbing than Albert Rivera, I'm glad that PD reached and agreement with M5S. The change of government in Italy and the recent developments in the British Parliament give some breathing space. I hope the new Conte government lasts enough and everything goes well, although there are signs of economic slowdown everywhere.

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« Reply #228 on: September 07, 2019, 09:42:23 am »

can't wait for Conte to be a sort of perpetual PM that operates as a mouthpiece for whatever coalition has been cobbled together.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #229 on: September 09, 2019, 02:50:19 pm »

Conte received the House's confidence tonight: 343 yes, 263 no, 3 abstentions, 21 absent.

Slightly wider numbers than expected, which bodes reasonably well for the Senate vote tomorrow (which should be a little closer due to more potential M5S defections). Conte's definitely got this.

Lega and FdI continued their histrionics today, yelling and holding up chairs inside parliament, and organizing a big demonstration outside. FI didn't participate, although they still had harsh words against the government. TFW Berlusconi is the adult in the room.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #230 on: September 10, 2019, 01:13:09 pm »

Confidence in the Senate as well: 169 yes, 133 no, 5 abstentions, 14 absent. Nugnes (former M5S) voted yes, but her three comrades didn't despite all of them hailing from the Movement's left wing. Three Senators for Life also voted yes: Liliana Segre (Holocaust survivor), Elena Cattaneo (stem cell researcher) and Mario Monti (lol). Two dissidents, one from each party: Gianluigi Paragone for M5S, Matteo Richetti for PD. Not the most comfortable majority, but it should hold. The government Conte 2.0 is now fully in power.

The winning for the new government doesn't stop here. Paolo Gentiloni today was appointed European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, arguably the most important job in the EC after its president, and an especially crucial job for a country like Italy that constantly has to negotiate with Europe over its budget. This seems to suggest that Europe is intending to be more lenient with this government than it was with the previous, which is probably the only way this government has a chance to succeed.

Now let's see what they make of all this.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #231 on: September 14, 2019, 05:01:22 pm »

This surprising summer caught everyone by surprise...me included, since I was enjoying my holidays in the seaside when Salvini decided to pull the plug (the day of my birthday, what a gift).

PD did the most sensible thing by agreeing to a government with M5S (and LeU...). Elections in October would have led either to a Lega absolute majority, or a Lega-Fratelli d'Italia easy majority. It would have been frightening to say the least, since they would also have chosen the next President in 2022.

Reaching 2022 is indeed IMO the primary target this gov't should have, timewise.
Even though there are daily rumours of Renzi breaking out of PD and forming his own party within a purely proportional electoral system, and Calenda (former minister of economic development, current eurodeputy) did leave PD following the alliance with M5S.

Interesting times ahead for sure...but interesting is better than scary.
As a PD member who has always deeply despised the 5 Star Movement, I consider myself quite satisfied with this summer's outcome.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #232 on: September 17, 2019, 05:51:55 am »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #233 on: September 17, 2019, 06:18:03 am »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.


Can't he just disappear for the sake of rotting corpse of European left?
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DL
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« Reply #234 on: September 17, 2019, 07:02:49 am »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #235 on: September 17, 2019, 07:19:21 am »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #236 on: September 17, 2019, 07:19:28 am »

Hilarious stuff. Actually this might even work out for the best - presuming a new electoral system - so long as the PD and Renzi take the opportunity to fish in somewhat different pools. Of course it's the PD and it's Renzi so... er...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #237 on: September 17, 2019, 07:21:09 am »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

I'm going to hazard a guess that they're pretty much all genepool DCs who claim to favour political Reform in the same vague sense that their parents favoured Stability.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #238 on: September 17, 2019, 07:21:33 am »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.
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DL
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« Reply #239 on: September 17, 2019, 09:23:31 am »


Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #240 on: September 17, 2019, 09:28:11 am »


Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?

They are populists, but not in a way easily linked to a particular position on the left/right scale.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #241 on: September 17, 2019, 09:35:30 am »


As Lord halifax correctly pointed out, no.
The PD was the party of financial prudence (well, er, at least for italian standards...) and they agreed to a government contract which forsees big deficits, increased spending and tax cuts as the M5S would like. M5S is broadly leftwing-populist on economics and highly confused on everything else.
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DL
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« Reply #242 on: September 17, 2019, 12:26:44 pm »

So Renzi would have preferred a snap election and a salvini majority government? That could have been the last free election in Italy and be the equivalent of the March on Rome in 1923
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urutzizu
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« Reply #243 on: September 17, 2019, 12:40:13 pm »

So Renzi would have preferred a snap election and a salvini majority government?

No. Renzi has taken all sorts of positions concerning cooperation with M5S, but he was a supporter of the new Government. He has said he will continue to back Conte for now. This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

That could have been the last free election in Italy and be the equivalent of the March on Rome in 1923

Lol
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #244 on: September 17, 2019, 12:55:32 pm »

This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #245 on: September 17, 2019, 06:22:19 pm »

This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.


Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #246 on: September 17, 2019, 11:39:33 pm »
« Edited: September 18, 2019, 12:00:25 am by Secret Cavern Survivor »

This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.

As petty as Italian politicians (Renzi most certainly included) are, I don't think this was the real reason (or at least not the main one).

A Renzi split from PD has been rumored ever since he resigned the leadership, with a series of speeches that clearly signified he had scores to settle with his party. Zingaretti winning the race to replace him (rather than a more Renzi-friendly figure like Martina or a true loyalist like Giachetti) provided him with a decent excuse. In retrospect, it seems clear that he was getting ready to pack up right around when Salvini pulled the plug on the government, and that at least part of the reason Renzi made an about-face about allying with M5S was in order to give himself enough time to establish his party on firm electoral footing before the elections. All of this had been rumored throughout the past month, but I'll admit I dismissed those rumors because the idea of Renzi breaking out just seemed too ridiculous to me.

Well, clearly it wasn't too ridiculous to him. He's always been frustrated by PD's factionalism, and is very much the kind of guy who would rather be the first man in this village than the second man in Rome. Now he will have his own loyal troops, who will obey his every order, even if these troops make up 5% of parliament rather than 20% of it. Al is correct that this might help ratchet up votes from what is left of the decomposing corpse of Italy's moderate-liberal right. And if the Conte 2.0 government does in fact repeal the Rosatellum and revert to a full PR system, "Italia Viva" (lmao) will have a shot at carving up its own nice in Italian politics. However, this still feels like a dumb move to me, one that will mostly just sow confusion about this government and cement the already strong impression among most Italians that it's full of self-serving career politicians with petty concerns.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #247 on: Today at 05:41:25 am »

Italia Viva currently polls between 3% and 6%.
The deputies which switched from PD to IV are just loyalists, all of the former Renzi supporters which supported Martina (the more moderate candidate) are remaining.

As mentioned above, Renzi just wanted his own party, surrounded by yes-men ready to obey. Factionalism was a big deal in PD, sure, but Renzi vowed to break it while instead all he managed to do was to bring his own bunch of loyalists in power, without any structural change.
Hard to see how his new party is going to work in a different way.

He's going to be aiming for the "moderates", much like Calenda, who broke away from PD one month ago because of the gov't with M5S. But as it is, he's getting support from former PD supporters, while those in FI (both the deputies and voters) are staying clear.
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