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November 18, 2019, 07:12:59 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Kalwejt)
  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 32835 times)
jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #475 on: May 22, 2019, 09:34:30 pm »

Is it even worth staying up for this on the East Coast?

I am up for it.

Some results already (all in Karnataka)

Leading
NDA   2 (--)
UPA   2 (--)

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jaichind
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« Reply #476 on: May 22, 2019, 09:42:58 pm »

Votes so far are mostly military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    34(--)
UPA    10(+2)
OTH     1(-2)
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jaichind
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« Reply #477 on: May 22, 2019, 09:48:40 pm »

Votes so far are mostly military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    78(--)
UPA    24(+5)
OTH     5(-5)
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jaichind
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« Reply #478 on: May 22, 2019, 09:59:45 pm »

Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    125(-8)
UPA     51(+14)
OTH     22(-6)

Stringer sources
NDA    202
UPA      51
OTH     18

Another 30-60 min before election day votes being to come in
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #479 on: May 22, 2019, 10:08:06 pm »

Does what's in so far indicate a probable NDA megatsunami or is the postal and military vote unrepresentative enough that we shouldn't be assuming that yet?
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jaichind
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« Reply #480 on: May 22, 2019, 10:09:45 pm »

Trends so far seems to conform to exit polls.   BJP winning big in UP and Karnataka while UPA sweeping TN.  Still most are still postal ballots
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jaichind
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« Reply #481 on: May 22, 2019, 10:10:23 pm »

Does what's in so far indicate a probable NDA megatsunami or is the postal and military vote unrepresentative enough that we shouldn't be assuming that yet?

Not yet.  But the patterns do fit the pro-NDA exit polls so if I were BJP I will be very pleased so far. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #482 on: May 22, 2019, 10:14:00 pm »

Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    169(-21)
UPA     72(+28)
OTH     40(-7)

Note these change exaggerates BJP losses since the the diff counts AIADMK as part of NDA which was NOT part of NDA in 2014
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jaichind
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« Reply #483 on: May 22, 2019, 10:24:34 pm »

Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP but some will be the real vote

NDA    199(-31)
UPA     86(+35)
OTH     60(-4)
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jaichind
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« Reply #484 on: May 22, 2019, 10:25:33 pm »

Karnataka ECI vote share have some signification numbers seems very bad for INC-JD(S)

BJP           51.2%
INC-JD(S)  44.7%
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #485 on: May 22, 2019, 10:29:04 pm »

Does it look so far similar to 2014
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #486 on: May 22, 2019, 10:31:05 pm »


It definitely looks like the UPA is consolidating the anti-Modi vote better than it did in 2014 (not that that's saying much), if nothing else.
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jaichind
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« Reply #487 on: May 22, 2019, 10:31:47 pm »

MP ECI vote share which is somewhat significant also look bad for INC

BJP   58.1%
INC   35.1% 
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jaichind
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« Reply #488 on: May 22, 2019, 10:33:21 pm »

Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP but some will be the real vote

NDA    223(-38)
UPA     97(+43)
OTH     70(-4)

Karnataka and UP looking good for BJP.  TN looks good for UPA. Maharashtra surprising well for UPA so far. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #489 on: May 22, 2019, 10:36:50 pm »

Best guess so far would be the bookies got it right again: NDA around 300
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pikachu
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« Reply #490 on: May 22, 2019, 10:37:38 pm »

Everything looks like expected, no? BJP losing ground in the Hindi belt, but making up enough in Bengal, Orissa, Karnataka and wherever else.
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jaichind
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« Reply #491 on: May 22, 2019, 10:38:07 pm »

Everything looks like expected, no? BJP losing ground in the Hindi belt, but making up enough in Bengal, Orissa, Karnataka and wherever else.

Yep.  And in TN NDA getting smashed.
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jaichind
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« Reply #492 on: May 22, 2019, 10:39:48 pm »

Some real votes now

NDA    240(-44)
UPA    102(+48)
OTH     81(-4)

Stringer sources
NDA   243
UPA    117
OTH   102
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #493 on: May 22, 2019, 10:41:31 pm »

Rajasthan ECI vote share which is somewhat significant also look bad for INC

BJP   61.8%
INC   33.4%
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #494 on: May 22, 2019, 10:42:49 pm »

Karnataka is now NDA 23 UPA 5 with significant votes in. What a disaster for this disastrous INC-JD(S) alliance
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jaichind
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« Reply #495 on: May 22, 2019, 10:57:11 pm »

BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #496 on: May 22, 2019, 10:58:06 pm »

BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats
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RoboWop
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« Reply #497 on: May 22, 2019, 10:58:43 pm »

Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?
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jaichind
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« Reply #498 on: May 22, 2019, 10:59:44 pm »

Some real votes now

NDA    313(-23)
UPA    101(+41)
OTH     91(-17)

Stringer sources
NDA    305
UPA    121
OTH    114

Going by my theory of a bump for the winning side which wins by a good margin we are look at NDA at 330-340 or so.
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jaichind
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« Reply #499 on: May 22, 2019, 11:00:20 pm »

BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats

NDA at 60+ seats, like all those "crazy" exit polls which I rejected.
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