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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Admiral Lord Horatio D'Ascoyne)
  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 30023 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #500 on: May 22, 2019, 11:00:34 pm »

Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?

He will hold on in my view.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #501 on: May 22, 2019, 11:02:05 pm »

Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?

Hopefully, as that might destroy the Gandhi dynasty for good
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Chosen One Giuseppe Conte
Nathan
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« Reply #502 on: May 22, 2019, 11:04:21 pm »

Isn't Gandhi running somewhere in Kerala?
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jaichind
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« Reply #503 on: May 22, 2019, 11:08:16 pm »

Hindi zone state vote share are massive for BJP

HP
BJP  70.2%
INC  26.4%

Haryana
BJP   56.1%
INC   28.5%
INLD   2.3%

MP
BJP    58.0%
INC    34.6%

Rajasthan
BJP   59.6%
INC   34.4%

Gujarat (not Hindi but core BJP state)
BJP   60.9%
INC  33.1%

Chhattisgarh
BJP   48.8%
INC   41.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #504 on: May 22, 2019, 11:08:47 pm »

Isn't Gandhi running somewhere in Kerala?

He is running in 2 seats.  He will clearly win his seat in Kerala.
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jaichind
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« Reply #505 on: May 22, 2019, 11:10:41 pm »

Some real votes now

NDA    315(-27)
UPA    114(+51)
OTH     90(-24)
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jaichind
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« Reply #506 on: May 22, 2019, 11:12:23 pm »

Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS   48.6%
INC-NCP   33.4%

Will also be a blowout victory for NDA here
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jaichind
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« Reply #507 on: May 22, 2019, 11:14:23 pm »

WB vote share

AITC   44.5%
BJP     41.0%
Left      7.0%
INC      3.9%

Anti-AITC vote have consolidated behind BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #508 on: May 22, 2019, 11:17:07 pm »

Jharkhand vote share - shock victory for BJP

BJP-AJSU               54.2%
INC-JMM-JVM-RLD  34.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #509 on: May 22, 2019, 11:18:36 pm »

UP vote share

BJP              50.5%
SP-BSP-RLD  38.3%
INC               6.1%
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jaichind
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« Reply #510 on: May 22, 2019, 11:20:59 pm »

BJP pulls ahead in WB in terms of seats BJP 22 AITC 17 INC 2.  Given the vote share so far I suspect AITC will pull back ahead in the end.  Still a massive surge for BJP
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #511 on: May 22, 2019, 11:21:19 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?
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pikachu
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« Reply #512 on: May 22, 2019, 11:22:53 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

pure speculation, but i'll be surprised if they dump rahul.

even if they do i expect priyanka.
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jaichind
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« Reply #513 on: May 22, 2019, 11:23:15 pm »

Karnataka vote share

BJP           51.3% (and that is not even counting the pro-BJP independent)
INC-JD(S)  42.4%
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Bagel23
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« Reply #514 on: May 22, 2019, 11:24:18 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
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jaichind
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« Reply #515 on: May 22, 2019, 11:25:35 pm »

Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS   48.4%
INC-NCP   32.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #516 on: May 22, 2019, 11:26:32 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.

Correct.  I think if INC somehow gets above 80 seats Rahul Gandhi will stay on as leader.  Although 2024 will now look tough for INC to win.
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pikachu
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« Reply #517 on: May 22, 2019, 11:26:50 pm »

Also, yeesh, what an ugly (if not unsurprising) result all-around so far. Not really sure what the opposition can do other than hope people will eventually get sick of Modi, but even if they do, who's to say that the most popular alternative ends up being Hindutva but more? Just discouraging to see.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #518 on: May 22, 2019, 11:27:22 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
yeah but you'd think if they barely gained any seats they would dump him as leader
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jaichind
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« Reply #519 on: May 22, 2019, 11:28:28 pm »

NDA    319(-28)
UPA    111(+46)
OTH    105(-18)
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Bagel23
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« Reply #520 on: May 22, 2019, 11:30:47 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
yeah but you'd think if they barely gained any seats they would dump him as leader

Good point, but who actually expected them to gain? Ever since the whole risky sh!tshow with Pakistan, it was obvious Modi had scored a massive win.
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pikachu
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« Reply #521 on: May 22, 2019, 11:30:57 pm »

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
yeah but you'd think if they barely gained any seats they would dump him as leader

We'll see, but Indian politics operate differently from the West.
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jaichind
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« Reply #522 on: May 22, 2019, 11:31:45 pm »

So this was a national election after all.  This looks like Modi's FDR 1936 realignment election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #523 on: May 22, 2019, 11:33:29 pm »

MP is it BJP 18 INC 11 seats.  I am very suspicious of this given the vote share results so far.  I suspect it will end up being BJP 27 or 28 out of 29 in the end.  If so the INC result is even worse than what the seat count now shows.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #524 on: May 22, 2019, 11:36:50 pm »

MP is it BJP 18 INC 11 seats.  I am very suspicious of this given the vote share results so far.  I suspect it will end up being BJP 27 or 28 out of 29 in the end.  If so the INC result is even worse than what the seat count now shows.
CNN News 18 is a little different, they have BJP on 285....NDA on 339
Congress on 54.....UPA on 93
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