2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

The recent political history have been dominated by what I call the Two Patnaiks:  Biju Patnaik and Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.
 
Orissa was fairly competitive politically right after independence even though the INC was clearly the most dominant force.  But repeated defections from INC to opposition ranks have eroded the INC advantage.   Harekrushna Mahatab was the first INC CM


With the various princely states and big landlords formed GP which became a powerful opposition party to INC.    In 1959 INC center-right splinter SWA split from the INC and in Orissa formed an alliance with GP which posed a significant threat to INC.

But after that INC brought in its new rising superstar Biju Patnaik to lead the INC to a significant victory in 1961 and becoming CM over SWA-GP with the GP merging into SWA soon after that election.
 

But in 1963 under the Kamaraj Plan Biju Patnaik stepped down from CM position to focus on building the INC party.  In the meantime former INC CM  Harekrushna Mahatab split from INC and formed JAC.  Without Biju Patnaik the INC lost the 1967 assembly elections with the SWA coming to power with support of JAC and PSP.

After that Biju Patnaik had a falling out with Indira Gandhi and formed UTC.    A rising power in INC Janaki Ballabh Patnaik had to make a call on if he should go with Indira Gandhi or follow  Biju Patnaik.  In the end he went with Indira Gandhi and became a powerful force in Indiira Gandhi's INC.


The SWA government fell part due to defections from JAC ranks to join up with INC and in 1971 the Orrisa assembly elections were held at the same time as the LS elections.    Biju Patnaik  moved to national politics and ran in the LS elections and was defeated by the INC Indira wave.  But in the assembly election INC fell short of majority and a government led by an independent CM was formed with backing from both SWA and UTC as JAC mostly lost its support to UTC.

In 1972 UTC had a falling out with SWA and choose to back an INC government led by Nandini Satpathy who had some connections with Biju Patnaik
  

This arraignment did not last long and INC maintained its majority by getting a bunch of UTC defectors to join INC.  The unstable situation led to the 1974 elections which saw SWA and UTC join in an alliance to take on INC.  The INC failed to win a majority in a very close election but was able to form a majority with support from its tactical ally CPI.

Then came the 1975 emergency which eventually triggered a falling out between Nandini Satpathy  and Indira Gandhi as Nandini Satpathy resigned to join the anti-Indira Gandhi movement.  The emergency also saw Biju Patnaik jailed by Indiira Gandhi INC government.   The 1977 LS elections saw all anti-Indira Gandhi forces join forces (SWA SOP UTC JAC BJS) to form JNP.  Unlike Northern India Orissa under Nandini Satpathy did not indulge in excesses which actually did not lead to mass defections from INC in the 1977 LS elections where they took place in Northern India.  The result was a defeat of INC but the INC kept its vote base intact.

1977 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          21                 5             40.37%

CPI             5                  0               3.15%

JNP+         21                16             53.75% (CPM was part of JNP+)

Biju Patnaik led the JNP.  After the national victory of JNP in the LS elections with  Biju Patnaik becoming a minister in the new JNP government at the federal level  the Orissa assembly was dismissed and assembly elections took place.   The INC campaign was led by Janaki Ballabh Patnaik
 The result was a decisive JNP victory and a JNP CM with close links to Biju Patnaik installed.

1977 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147                26             31.10%

INC rebel                         4              4.79%

CPI            25                  1              3.57%

JNP          147              110             49.17%

JNP rebel                         5              3.36%

CPM            4                  1              0.88%

The scale of the JNP victory was unprecedented in Orissa assembly election election and was the only time that a party won an absolute majority in the Orissa assembly election up until then other than the 1961 INC victory led by Biju Patnaik.

[jaichind]

After JNP took power at the federal level in 1977 things started to fall apart which led to the fall of the JNP government in 1979 and the anti-BJS JNP(S) splitting out of JNP and the midterm LS elections of 1980.   Biju Patnaik which was most of JNP in Orissa went with JNP(S).  In the meantime  anti-Indira Gandhi INC(U) split from INC and allied with JNP(S).  The LS election result saw an INC landslide with the anti-INC vote split.   INC won all the seats except for Biju Patnaik.

1980 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                 20             56.07%

JNP           20                  0             14.11%

JNP(S)+    21                  1             22.84% (INC(U) CPM  CPI were part of JNP(S)+)

JKD            5                   0              1.01% (Tribal party)


The return of Indira Gandhi's INC to power at the federal level also led to the recalling of the Orissa state assembly followed by assembly elections later in 1980.  In the meantime BJP split from JNP and INC(U) broke off its alliance with JNP(S) which added to the split of the anti-INC forces.  The INC campaign was led by  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.   The result was a massive INC landslide despite losing vote share relative to the 1980 LS election.

1980 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147              118            47.78%

INC rebel                         4              2.63%

JNP            31                  3              4.14%

JNP(S)+   123                14            21.95% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JNP(S) rebel                    2              3.10%

CPI+          42                 4              7.20% (tactical alliance with JNP(S)+)

INC(U)       98                 2              7.03%

BJP            28                 0              1.36%

The INC was returned to power with  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik as the new INC CM.

The 1977 Orissa assembly election was a watershed.  Before 1977 every assembly election except for 1961 did not have a party with an overall majority.  All Orissa assembly elections 1977 and after would yield a party with an overall majority.

[jaichind]

After the return to power for the INC in Orissa and the federal level anti-incumbency began to build up.    There are rumors of corruption and demands for sexual favors in return for policies in the Janaki Ballabh Patnaik government including the CM himself.   Biju Patnaik took his followers out of JNP(S) (now called LKD) and joined with JNP as BJP has left JNP and there were signs that LKD was open to cooperation with BJP.   Biju Patnaik. is fairly negative on the BJP and looked forward to storming back to power in Orissa based on the decline of INC fortunes.  All this was turned in 1984 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated and produced a sympathy wave in the 1984 midterm LS election for INC which also reached Orissa.    Once again  Biju Patnaik was the only opposition winner of a LS seat in Orissa with INC sweeping the rest.

1984 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                 20             57.46%

JNP+         21                  1             35.29% (CPM  CPI were part of JNP+)

LKD            5                   0              1.03%

BJP            4                   0               1.18%

Even though Biju Patnaik led JNP was sounded defeated in Orissa the election showed that in Orissa Biju Patnaik was the only alternative in town as an opposition force to take on INC.  For the 1985 Orissa assembly election Biju Patnaik resigned his LS seat to lead JNP into battle against Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and with the 1984 INC wave still not subsided was soundly beaten by the INC as Janaki Ballabh Patnaik was returned to power.

1985 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147              117            51.08%

INC rebel                         1              1.52%

JNP+        142                21            31.04% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JNP rebel                         5              3.92%

CPI+          37                 1              4.45% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

BJP            67                 1              2.60%

SUCI           2                  1              0.29%

One again even in defeat Biju Patnaik showed that his JNP was the only real opposition to INC in Orissa.  That would prove useful in the next round of struggle against INC.

[jaichind]

Do you think the BJP could get a majority by themselves again

Most likely not.  Most poll have BJP short of majority and in fact NDA short of majority and in India the ruling party is usually overestimated in polls.  The only counter example would be 2009 when UPA outperformed polls other then that most poll always overestimate the incumbent party.   

Another sign that things are not going great for BJP in their own assessment is how they are dealing with SHS.  SHS has been pretty much spewing venom at BJP and the response from BJP has been nil and assertion that there will be a BJP-SHS alliance.  SHS is now demanding a majority of assembly and even LS seats in Maharashtra while BJP wants 50/50 split.  The fact that the BJP is willing to accept a lower share of seat relative to their 2014 performance seems to indicate that they are getting desperate to avoid a loss of seats in  Maharashtra.  This and their climb-down  in Bihar where they agreed to an even share of seats with JD(U) shows that their internal assessment is not optimistic.

[jaichind]

Hey jaichind, quick question -

Would you by any chance be able to compile an updated list of the alliances/prospective alliances are in each state and their implications? Reading your extensive contributions to this thread has been very informative, but a more concise resource for this would be helpful.

Ok. let me take a shot at this for the bigger states.

For HP, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, and Goa the LS election will be a bipolar battle of BJP vs INC.  BSP and allies (like JCC Chhattisgarh) in have some strength in certain pockets and could swing  the election result in some seats but the key issue here is "Can Modi get BJP to punch above its weight given recent assembly election results and anti-incumbency trends".  If not then the INC will gain a bunch of seats here from the BJP relative to 2014.

Haryana: Was suppose to be BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP.  For the first time since 2005 INC is united.  BJP is facing anti-incumbency due to anger from the powerful Jat community.  INLD has suffered a vertical split with INLD splinter JJP now torpedoing any chances for INLD.  BSP has decided to go with BJP Jat based splinter LSP.  AAP is also making a move here.  It should end up being BJP vs INC with the result being how the INLD, JJP,  LSP-BSP and AAP split the vote.  INC on paper should make a strong comeback given the circumstances but Modi could carry BJP to victory based on his own brand.

Punjab: Will be INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP.  SAD-BJP was crushed by INC in the 2017 assembly elections which even with anti-incumbency should give INC an edge here.   AAP has mostly imploded here which should help SAD in particular.  I think in the end it will be bipolar between INC and SAD-BJP with the two side splitting the seats fairly evenly.

Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC.  Unless AAP and INC can form an alliance the BJP will sweep all the seats. The main problem is that INC has regained a lot of ground since the 2015 assembly AAP landslide victory so both AAP and INC can make an argument that it can wipe out the other so on the long run it can be the main alternative to the BJP.  Looks more and more unlikely an AAP-INC alliance can be formed.

UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC.  How the election will turn out will depend on the strength of the Modi brand to carry BJP above its weight, if the SP-BSP vote bloc can fuse, and if SP-BSP-RLD can pull off a de facto tactical alliance with INC where INC poaches the BJP Upper Caste vote while SP-BSP runs weak candidates in areas where it is BJP vs INC.  BJP ally SBSP or even AD might defect to SP-BSP if they do not get their pound of flesh.    SP splinter PSP could also end up as an INC ally and could hurt SP-BSP in some seats.

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI.  The social base of the two blocs are roughly equal.   BJP-JD(U)-LJP should have the upper hand given the Nitish Kumar brand and that alliance have greater cohesion where as RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI are running into seat sharing problems.  Only thing RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI can could on is some sort of undetected anti-incumbency toward the JD(U).  There is still a small chance that INC will leave    RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI and form an alliance with JD(U) if JD(U) is negative on BJP's chances in which case it becomes BJP-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI vs JD(U)-INC.  In theory possible but unlikely.

Jharkhand: BJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.  In theory BJP ally AJSU might join BJP but in reality with BJP winning 12 out of 14 seats in 2014 the AJSU will not be able to get a seat sharing deal that it would demand so AJSU will most likely run separately.  There seems to be significant anti-incumbency against the BJP  so if INC-JMM-JVM-RJD cnd hold together the BJP will be in trouble.

Maharashtra: Should be BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP.  INC-NCP alliance is set.  BJP and SHS are still playing a game of chicken on alliance talks but in the end should form an alliance or else INC-NCP will sweep the state.  SHS splinter NMS has gone completely anti-Modi will run separately even though there are talks of NMS joining INC-NCP if BJP-SHS forms an alliance.  If SHS does run separately I can see NMS forming an alliance with SHS.  All things equal a BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP battle is advantage BJP-SHS although not to the same degree as 2014.

WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC.   This state is moving toward a AITC vs BJP battle.  The new Citizenship bill while turning off the Northeast to BJP does help BJP with Bengali voters.  Left Front will be pushed to a poor third and end up with no seats.  INC will be reduced to small pockets of strength.  Left Front and INC might try for a tactical alliance most likely to no avail.  AITC will win but BJP will gain a lot of ground in vote share and perhaps seats.

Orissa: BJD vs BJP vs INC.  INC is on the decline so it will be mostly BJD vs BJP.  BJD should win but there might be hidden anti-incumbency against BJD which could throw a surprise BJP victory.  On the long run this state might become BJD vs BJP bipolar state which could push BJD into an anti-BJP party vs its current position of being both anti-BJP and anti-INC. 

Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP.  BJP tends to outperform here in LS elections.  The tenuous INC-JD(U) alliance on paper should crush BJP.  Of course if the alliance has problems on the ground and it does then the BJP could fight INC-JD(S) to a draw.

AP: TDP vs YSRCP vs JS-Left vs INC vs BJP.  Mostly a TDP (anti-BJP) vs YSRCP battle.  TDP taking an anti-BJP pro-INC position has pushed YSRCP to a de facto pro-BJP position.  BJP has always been weak here and INC's image has been destroyed due to the creation of Telenaga in 2014.  A TDP-INC alliance was called off due to the negative brand of INC.  You can same the same for a possible YSRCP-BJP alliance due to the toxic brand of BJP here.  JS-Left could split the anti-TDP vote and help TDP but in the end YSRCP seems likely to win the state.  YSRCP could end up supporting BJP after the election.

Telangana: TRS-AIMIM vs INC vs TDP vs BJP.  Mostly a TRS vs INC battle with TDP and BJP having certain pockets of strength.  TDP's brand here is toxic due to its image of being opposed to the creation of Telangana in 2014 so INC and TDP choose to run separately.  TRS should repeat its 2018 assembly election victory especially after it got AIMIM to tactically back it.   TRS could support BJP after the election. 

TN: AIADMK vs DMK-INC-MDMK vs AMMK vs PMK vs DMDK vs MNM vs BJP.  Very chaotic.  AIADMK could ally with BJP due to pressure  from BJP despite BJP's toxic brand here.  As it is DMK-INC-MDMK is very strong and look posed to sweep the state due to the split of the AIADMK vote with AIADMK splitner AMMK.  In response I can see a AIADMK-DMDK-PMK-BJP alliance to try to stop the DMK-INC-MDMK Juggernaut.  Anti-BJP MNM  could end up with DMK-INC-MDMK.   Result will really depend on how badly AMMK hits AIADMK in term splitting the AIADMK vote.

Kerala: INC-KEC(M)-MUL vs Left Front vs BJP.  Used to bipolar between INC-KEC(M)-MUL and Left Front. BJP is surging here and could win a seat.  There is anti-incumbency against the Left Front so INC-KEC(M)-MUL should do well.

 
Assam: BJP-BPF vs INC vs AIUDF vs AGP.  AGP has left its alliance with BJP-BPF due to the new Citizenship bill.  If anything that could help BJP-BPF as that might split the anti-BJP Ahom vote from INC.  if the Muslim vote is split between INC and AIUDF and the Ahom vote is split between INC and AGP then BJP-BPF will do very well.

Northeast mini states : Mostly BJP and allies should gain vs INC.  New citizenship bill will hurt BJP but the pull of federal subsidies will be too strong and should propel BJP and allies to victory.

Federal territories:  Mostly BJP vs INC (Pondicherry will be AINRC vs INC) and BJP should have a edge here.

[jaichind]

Kashmir Death Toll Climbs to 40 in India’s Worst Attack Under Modi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/roadside-blast-kills-18-indian-paramilitary-troops-in-kashmir

Modi will be under pressure to take some sort of action especially with elections coming up.  Could be double edged sword for BJP.

[jaichind]

Likely going to be more Surgical Strikes. If Modi can drag the Tension out it will put Opposition in a difficult Situation of having to support the Government like Vajpayee mastered with the Kargil War in 1999. Also Kashmiri Bodybags sell quite well in Indian elections, sadly.

What downsides do you see for the BJP? I dont really see any for Modi, at least not inside the country....

If Modi's response is too strong and provokes escalation from Pakistan and perhaps drag USA into the situation then he can be accused of mishandling the situation by making the Kashmir issue more internationalized versus the Indian narrative of it being an internal Indian domestic issue. 

[jaichind]

Alliance updates:
1) In Mahabharata, as expected SHS and BJP are moving toward an alliance.  It is now only a matter of on what terms.  There are signs that NCP is openly pushing for SHS splinter NMS to join INC-NCP alliance.  INC objects saying that NMS is "not secular" but the real issue is whereas SHS is mostly anti-Muslim, NMS is both anti-Muslim and anti-North Indian.  INC's real fear is that NMS joining INC-NCP will hit them in Northern India, especially UP and Bihar.

2) It seems BJP pulled the plug for now on New Citizenship bill given the loud negative feedback in Northeast India.  I guess this prevents large scale defections of allies in Northeast India and opens the door for AGP to rejoin NDA.

3) In TN it seems that we are iterating toward a AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK alliance to counter the DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-CPI juggernaut.  It seems AIADMK internally does not want BJP as an ally as it will clearly drive anti-BJP votes away.  But given the number of pending corruption cases against key AIADMK leaders they might not have much of a choice.

[jaichind]

Back to Orissa election history

After the INC landslides of 1984 LS and 1984 Orissa assembly elections, INC past finally caught up with it.  Corruption charges at the federal and Orissa level hurt the INC brand.  Various scandals related to Janaki Ballabh Patnaik from his first term are all coming out.   At the national level JNP and LKD merged with anti-Rajiv Gandhi INC rebels to form JD and sought to fight the 1989 LS elections with tactical alliance with Left Front and BJP.  In Orissa  Biju Patnaik led the JD effort.   Given  Biju Patnaik's anti-BJP stance JD did not form a tactical alliance with BJP unlike other parts of Northern India but JD won a smashing victory never-the-less.

1989 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  3             38.41%

JD+          21                18              56.08% (CPM  CPI were part of JD+)

JNP          13                   0               1.21% (One faction of JNP refused to join JD)

BJP            6                   0               1.28%

JKD+         4                   0               0.60% (Tribal party)

With the INC defeated in 1989 a JD minority government was installed at the federal level with outside support from the Left Front and BJP.   For the 1990 Orissa assembly election Biju Patnaik led the JD effort without, again, a tactical deal with BJP.  It did not matter as the swing against Janaki Ballabh Patnaik's INC was so massive that JD won the largest landslide in Orissa assembly election before or since.

1990 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        146               10             30.01%

INC rebel                         1              2.44%

JD+         139              123             53.69% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JD rebel                          3              1.34%

CPI+          17                 6              3.81% (tactical alliance with JD)

BJP            63                 2              3.56%

Biju Patnaik took over as CM for the first time since he resigned in 1963 when he was INC CM.

[jaichind]

The JD government pretty much fell apart in 1991 with BJP dropping support over the Ram Temple issue as well as the JD splinter JD(S) pulling out of JD.  Biju Patnaik  and his supporters stayed loyal to JD.  After a short sprint of JD(S) government with outside support from INC new election were called.  The BJP was en route to large gains due to the Ram Temple issue until the Rajiv Gandhi assassination drove a lot of sympathy vote to INC.  Orissai voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination and saw both INC and BJP grew at the expense of JD with JD(S) further splitting the JD vote.  The result was a small INC edge over JD with BJP making a big jump (although not as big as it would been if there were not the Rajiv Gandhi assassination)

1991 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                13              44.05%

JD+          21                  8              39.75% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)       18                   0               2.97%

BJP          21                   0               9.50%

JMM          2                   0               0.60% (Tribal party but more Jharkhand based)

The INC returned to power at the federal level as the result of the 1991 LS election.   The  Biju Patnaik government over time saw growing frustration and anti-incumbency to the point that despite  Biju Patnaik's personal popularity his government was not popular and was defeated in the 1995 assembly election by INC led again by Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.  The BJP for the first time went all out to grow in Orissa and while still performed poorly was growing in terms of vote share showing that its 1991 LS surge due to the Ram Temple issue was being sustained.

1995 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147               80             39.39%

INC rebel                         3              3.09%

JD+         147                47             35.83%

JD rebel                          1              1.64%

SJP            59                 0              1.36% (renamed from JD(S))

BJP          144                 9              7.88%

CPI+          34                 1              2.57%

JMM           16                 4              1.94%

JPP              4                 1              0.17% (Tribal party)

SUCI           1                  1              0.13%

One more Janaki Ballabh Patnaik was made INC CM after the INC victory despite his tainted term in 1980-1990 given his organizational skills in delivering victory to INC.

The 1996 LS election took place soon after the INC return to power in Orissa.  There was heavy anti-incumbency to INC at the national level although INC was still in its honeymoon period at the state level.   Biju Patnaik  led JD into battle and ran heavy on an anti-INC and anti-BJP campaign.  The relative popularity of the new INC government in Orissa and a further surge of the INC split the anti-INC vote to deliver a fairly large INC victory even as the INC suffered setbacks in the rest of the county.  What also helped INC was the INC PM P. V. Narasimha Rao who is from AP choose to run for a LS seat in Orissa.

1996 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                16             44.90%

JD+          21                  4             33.43% (CPM was part of JD+)

BJP           20                  0             13.42%

SJP            2                   1              1.55%

JMM           4                   0              1.55%

The BJP surge in 1991-1996 period shows that is is arriving as a real third force to break the INC-JD duopoly on power. 

[jaichind]

After the 1996 LS elections a JD minority government was formed without side support of INC to keep out the BJP.  This type of arrangement was by definition unstable and bound to fall which it did in 1998.  In the meantime Biju Patnaik passed away in 1997.  His son Naveen Patnaik who was a writer and have no real political experience was brought in from Delhi to Orissa to try to fill his father's void.  


Naveen Patnaik barely spoke Odia due to his long stay in Delhi but so strong was the memory Biju Patnaik that did not deter the population of Orissa from giving him strong support especially as the INC government of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik have fallen into the familiar pattern of corruption and scandal.  

When INC finally pulled the plug on the JD government in 1998, Naveen Patnaik who did not share his father's hostility toward the BJP proposed an JD-BJP alliance to take on INC in the 1998 LS elections.  This was rejected by JD high command who insisted on being equidistant to INC and BJP.  In response Naveen Patnaik split JD in Orissa to form BJD and formed and alliance with BJP.  The BJD-BJP alliance trounced INC in the 1998 LS election in Orissa pushing JD into a poor third place.

1998 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  5              41.04%

BJD+        21                 16             48.69% (BJP was part of BJD+)

JD+          21                   0              8.40% (JMM CPI CPM was part of JD+)

The BJP and its allies did well enough in the 1998 LS elections to form a government at the center with the support of TDP.   But in 1999 due to the defection of AIADMK the BJP government fell and the 1999 LS elections were held.   The 1999 LS elections saw a wave in favor of BJP PM Vajpayee due to the circumstances where his government fell and this was especially true in Orissa as the poor performance of JD+ in the 1998 LS elections led what is left of JD to pretty much go over to BJD.  The result was a landslide victory for BJD-BJP.

1999 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  2             36.94%

BJD+        21                 19             57.63% (BJP was part of BJD+)

BJP rebel                         0              0.73%

CPI+          5                   0              1.37% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JMM           7                   0              1.70%

The defeat of INC was so well expected that the INC failed to even nominate a candidate against Naveen Patnaik especially as natural disasters in Orissa exposed the incompetence of the  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik INC government.   In many ways the 2000 Orissa election was pre-ordained as a INC landslide defeat as  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik's INC was soundly defeated by the BJD-BJP alliance led by  Naveen Patnaik.

2000 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        146                26            33.92%

INC rebel                         2              2.71%

BJD+        147              106            47.59%
 
BJD rebel                         4              4.12%
BJP rebel                         2              0.83%

AITC          36                  1             0.78% (INC splinter but de facto BJD rebel)

CPI+          69                 3              2.93% (JD(S) and CPM were part of CPI+)

JMM           21                 3              2.14%

BSP          105                 0             1.15%

The BJD-BJP alliance was not as strong in the 2000 Orissa assembly election given the large number of BJD and BJP rebels.  But so unpopular was the Janaki Ballabh Patnaik INC government that this did not stop a BJD-BJP victory and Naveen Patnaik  being installed as the BJD CM of Orissa.

[jaichind]

The Naveen Patnaik BJD government installed after the 2000 Orissa assembly election was fairly popular so when 2004 LS elections were called Naveen Patnaik choose to go for early assembly elections at the same time especially when the NDA which BJD was a part of was fairly popular nationally and was expected to return to power.  It turned out that NDA was ousted nationally but in Orissa BJD-BJP did fairly well and Naveen Patnaik was returned to power even as the UPA swept into power nationally even as BJD splinter OGP was allied with INC.

2004 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  2             40.43% (de facto CPI support)

BJD+        21                 18             49.31% (BJP was part of BJD+)

BJP rebel                         0              0.93%

JMM           7                   1              1.54%

BSP          12                   0              2.20%


2004 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        139                40            36.59% (OGP part of INC+, tactical alliance with CPI+)

INC rebel                         1              2.10%

CPI+          17                 2              1.76% (JD(S) CPM part of CPI+,tactical alliance with INC+)

BJD+        147                93            44.47% (BJP was part of BJD+)
 
BJD rebel                         6              4.59%
BJP rebel                         0              0.84%

JMM           12                 4              1.78%

BSP            86                 0             1.93%

SUCI            1                 1              0.13%

BJD-BJP won easily the LS election as Janaki Ballabh Patnaik again led the INC campaign.  Despite BJD splinter OGP going with INC, a a tactical alliance between INC+ and CPI+ and continued BJD and BJP rebels the BJD-BJP alliance was returned to power with Naveen Patnaik continuing as CM.  Overall INC gained ground since 1999-2000 but was still some distance away from taking back power.

[jaichind]

After the 2004 LS elections the INC led UPA government was installed at the federal level while Naveen Patnaik led the BJD-BJP government in Orissa.  In the lead up to the 2009 LS and Orissa assembly election, using the pretext of Hindu-Christian communal conflict  Naveen Patnaik broke off BJD's alliance with BJP.  Most likely this was based on the fact that the BJP seems unlikely to win the 2009 LS elections and that INC has been reduced by 9 years of BJD rule that Naveen Patnaik feels that he can take on INC without support from BJP.  The 2009 LS and Orissa assembly election would prove him right.

2009 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  6             32.75%

BJD+        21                 15             41.75% (CPI CPM NCP were part of BJD+)

BJP           21                  0             16.89%

SAMO        7                   0               0.74% (BJP splinter)

JMM           4                   0              1.75%

BSP          19                   0              1.90%


2009 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          146                27            29.02%

INC rebel                         2              2.77%

BJD+        147              109            41.59%  (CPI CPM NCP were part of BJD+)
 
BJD rebel                         1              1.04%

SKD            1                   1             0.25% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP+         146                 7            15.27%
 
SAMO         99                 0              1.05% (BJP splinter)
  
JMM           32                 0              1.58%

BSP          113                 0              1.52%

BJD splinter OGP have since merged into NCP which in turn allied with BJD.  BJD now without BJP as an ally was able to pull in CPI CPM and NCP as allies which added to its vote share.  The INC effort was led again by  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and was once again defeated with INC not being able to take advantage of the BJD BJP split given the large number of INC rebels and large decrease in BJD rebels relative to 2004.  At the national level UPA won re-election while  Naveen Patnaik  continued as CM with a BJD majority on its own.  After 2009 INC high command had enough of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and "retired" him by making him governor of Assam.

[jaichind]

BJP and SHS has made a deal. BJP gets 25 and SHS 23 seats in Maharashtra. In 2014 it was BJP 24, SHS 20 and others 4.

In UPA NCP got 24 seats allocated to them.

As expected.  It seems they also agreed to split the Maharashtra assembly election seats 50/50.   To be fair it will not be BJP 25 SHS 23.  Both parties will have to give up some seats for other allies like RPI, RSP and BVA.  SWP which went with BJP-SHS in 2014 most likely will go with INC-NCP while BVA which was part of INC-NCP in 2014 will most likely go with BJP-SHS this time.  It will be interesting to see what SHS splinter and now avowed anti-Modi NMS will do in now.  Most likely some sort of tactical alliance with INC-NCP where NMS no run and de facto INC-NCP in a bunch of seats and in parts of Mumbai where NMS is strong the INC-NCP will run weak candidates and de facto back NMS to take on SHS.

[jaichind]

It seems that AIADMK-BJP alliance will be announce soon.  It seems it will be AIADMK 25 BJP 15 for the 40 seats in TN/Pondicherry.  Of course this is just the first cut and these seats will have to be carved out between other possible allies like PMK DMDK TMC and AINRC (in Pondicherry).
Most likely it will be AIADMK 20 BJP 8 PMK 5 DMDK 4 PT 1 TMC 1 AINRC 1.  KMK might get a seat.  PMK is also in talks with DMK-INC but is demanding 6 seats and there is no way DMK-INC who feel they are en route to a landslide victory will give away that many seats so PMK will most likely have to go with AIADMK-BJP.  Of course unless somehow AMMK can be brought into the AIADMK-BJP bloc the DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-CPI bloc seems likely to sweep TN especially given the toxic brand of the BJP in TN.  What AIADMK-BJP have to hope for is the anti-BJP vote is split between DMK-INC and AMMK.

[jaichind]

To finish up Orissa election history, after 2009 LS election UPA was returned to power as well as  Naveen Patnaik's BJD at the Orissa state level.  2009-2014 saw a rapid drop in support for INC due to corruption scandals as well as poorly handled Telengana split from AP and a surge of support for BJP.  In Orissa without Janaki Ballabh Patnaik leading INC did leave INC gaining since it was now without the negative image of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik  but left it leaderless and rudderless losing more ground to BJP and BJD.  For 2014 the anti-INC mood mostly pushed the anti-INC vote to BJD with BJP making very limited gains even as the Modi wave swept across the rest of India.

2014 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  0             26.38%

AOP            9                  0               0.74% (INC splinter)

BJD           21                20             44.77%

BJP           21                  1             21.88%

CPI+          5                   0              0.48% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JMM           1                   0              0.82%

BSP          21                   0              1.03%

AAP          18                   0              0.70%


2014 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          147                10            26.04%

INC rebel                         1              2.25%

AOP            76                 0              1.03%

BJD          147              117            43.91%
 
BJD rebel                         1              0.87%

SKD           51                  1              0.41% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP           147               16            18.22%
 
CPI+           44                  1              0.90% (CPM was part of CPI+)
  
JMM           13                 0              1.04%

BSP          113                 0              0.87%

AAP          106                 0              0.61%

The INC was crushed and Naveen Patnaik's BJD was returned to power as the BJP rode Modi's wave to power at the federal level.  Since 2014 Naveen Patnaik's BJD has taken a pro-BJP position even as the BJP grew in Orissa to be the main opponent for BJD as INC's fortunes continues to decline.  INC splinter AOP merged into BJD.  For 2019 LS and assembly elections Naveen Patnaik will lead BJD into battle against a surging BJP and a weakening INC.  INC most likely will try to have an alliance with JMM and CPI-CPM to try to avoid a complete collapse of the INC vote.  Most likely for 2019 we will see as BJD vs BJP battle.

The narrative of election history of Orissa is the steady decline of INC from the most powerful party in the state to a permanent state of opposition against BJD-BJP to a second tier party where it is no longer even in contention to win power anymore.  Despite his organizational skills long time INC leader Janaki Ballabh Patnaik with his long list of scandals and died in 2015 has to take most of the blame.

[jaichind]

AIADMK PMK BJP forms alliance in TN

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/its-official-bjp-aiadmk-pmk-mega-alliance-tn-general-elections-2019-96999



Not clear where is DMDK or TMC.  I assume they will be roped in later.  I also assume they will back AINRC in Pondicherry

[jaichind]

Since TN is in the news due to AIADMK-BJP-PMK alliance it would be interesting to talk about MDMK and how it is part of the DMK-INC alliance.  MDMK was formed in 1993 by Vaiko


Vaiko was the right hand man of DMK leader Karunanidhi in the 1980s and was viewed as his natural successor


But by the early 1990s it was clear that Karunanidhi  was grooming his son Stalin to be his successor


That fact should have been clearly in the 1970s since the future role of Stalin was part of the cause of the Karunanidhi-MGR fued in the 1970s and MGR leading AIADMK as a DMK splinter in 1972 when  DMK leader and TN CM Karunanidhi was trying to push his son Stalin into politics and saw MGR popularity as a threat to Stalin's future in DMK.


Seeing that Karunanidhi was pushing Stalin into the #2 spot in the DMK  Vaiko quit DMK in 1993 and formed MDMK.  In theory the reason was that Vaiko felt that the DMK was not taking a strong enough pro-LTTE position in Sri Lanka but in reality it was all about Stalin. MDMK since then has taken a anti-DMK position in TN politics except for a brief 2004-2006 period when it was part of a grand anti-AIADMK alliance led by DMK.

Now after Karunanidhi passed away in 2018 Vaiko has joined with Stalin led DMK and will be working toward Stalin becoming CM in the next TN assembly election.  Which pretty much means there was no real point on why even MDMK was formed in the first place.

[jaichind]

There seems to be an assumption that the BJP-SHS alliance in Maharashtra should mean a sweep of BJP-SHS similar to 2014.  I do not see why that is the case.  The fact is the BJP-SHS split which only ended recently with a patched up alliance has already seen the SHS paint the BJP led by Modi-Amit Shah as the Gujarati BJP.  This narrative will not go away overnight with the re-creation of the alliance.  Also if SHS ran separately from SHS could have picked up and even split the anti-incumbent vote from INC-NCP.  Now a good part of the SHS Maratha base could go over to SHS splinter NMS or even NCP led by Maratha leader Sharad Pawar.  I say that BJP-SHS will most likely split the Maharashtra seats with INC-NCP down the middle.

It also seems SHS has ulterior motives for being a part of BJP led alliance.  If BJP itself does not cross 200 seats SHS could play a role to overthrow Modi and put in pro-SHS and Maratha leader Nitin Gadkari as PM. And if BJP falls below 160 seats SHS might even back Sharad Pawar as PM.  Either way SHS was to able to take credit for putting a Maratha in the PM seat and lock in the Maratha vote for SHS.  Of course if BJP get about 220 seats then it will be Modi and SHS will have to accept its place.

[jaichind]

Well, clearly the India-Pakistan escalation is getting more heated.  I am not so sure this actually works in the BJP advantage.  If India can be viewed as "winning" the escalation with Pakistan Kargil  in 1999 then for sure that will help the incumbent PM.  And even then it is not clear if the 1999 BJP victory was because of the Kargil conflict or the way Vajpayee was brought down in 1999 and the vote more about rejecting the opportunistic politics regional parties like AIADMK.   Given that a Indian plant was shot down an a pilot capture and becoming a POW I am not sure India is "winning" this escalation. 

I think all things equal this conflict should help BOTH BJP and INC at the expense of various regional players.  Really depends on this conflict plays out but that is my hunch.

[jaichind]

Since the current India-Pakistan standoff is trigger by the Kashmir conflict (again) and it is likely that J&K will have assembly elections this Spring along with LS elections it would be useful to go over the election history of J&K.

J&K or Jammu and Kashmir should really be called Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladkah since it is 3 separate regions..  The root causes of the conflict is mostly well known where the Hindu Maharaja of Muslim majority Kashmir wanted to stay independent versus joining India or Pakistan in 1947.   Sheikh Abdullah of JKN which was the main political party in Kashmir was a friend of Indian INC PM Nehru.   


Pakistan feared that Sheikh Abdullah will push Kashmir into India so they launch and invasion of Kashmir in 1947 which led to the unoccupied part Kashmir joining India as an autonomous region called J&K.


Due to the special nature of how J&K joined India it was given special autonomous powers spelled out in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.   Elections are held every 6 years as opposed to 5 and the CM role is actually called PM (Sheikh Abdullah being the first PM of J&K leading a JKN ministry.)   India J&K itself having 3 separate sub-regions of Kashmir (mostly Muslim), Jammu(Hindu majority but significant number of Muslims) and Ladkah (very thinly populated with Buddhist plurality but a significant and growing Muslim minority.)
In 1962 PRC-India war the PRC also took over Aksai Chin (the Chinese position which is also my is that Ladkah is also part of China but I guess I will mention this one and stay away from that issue.)


The status of Kashmir became very controversial.  INC wanted to make sure J&K stay in India, proto-BJP (BJS) was very concerned about the special status of J&K and wanted to get rid of Article 370 and Sheikh Abdullah and his JKN took on a sovereigntist position that the population of an undivided Kashmir should make the final decision on the status of Kashmir.   All this came ahead in 1953 when INC split JKN and overthrew Sheikh Abdullah  to ensure that JKN does not become a force that might take J&K out of India.  Sheikh Abdullah  was then jailed with a pro-INC JKN continued.

In 1964 JKN merged into INC while the pro-Sheikh Abdullah  faction of JKN took on the JKN name.
 Soon after that Sheikh Abdullah was freed as part of a deal with Nehru to represent India in talks with Pakistan on a solution to the Kashmir problem.  Then Nehru passed away and things got frozen again with Sheikh Abdullah frozen out of power.  In 1965 the PM of J&K position was renamed to CM but the 6 year election cycle (vs 5 years in the rest of India) continued.   Elections continued but with JKN boycotting elections.

As time went out it was clear that Sheikh Abdullah was the most popular politician of J&K and freezing him out of power was reducing India's legitimacy in J&K, especially the Kashmir region.  So in 1975 Indira Gandhi made a deal with Sheikh Abdullah where Sheikh Abdullah was made CM and a INC-JKN alliance formed.  The 1977 LS election JKN-INC alliance swept the polls in J&K while INC was defeated in North India.  What was a warning for India was that proto-JMI which is a Kashmir separatist group came onto the scene and is beginning to take some votes in Kashmir.

With a JNP government installed at the federal level JKN saw no more need to ally with INC.  The 1977 J&K assembly elections later in 1977 it was a 3 way battle between JKN INC and JNP with JKN winning a majority.  INC and JNP tend to be stronger in Hindu Jammu and JKN sweeping Kashmir.

The 1980 LS elections saw JKN form an alliance with JNP with JKN winning the Kashmir seats and INC winning the Jammu/Ladkah seats while INC stormed back to power at the federal level.  In 1982 Sheikh Abdullah passed away and his son Farooq Abdullah took over JKN and the CM of J&K.


By the 1983 assembly elections JNP mostly imploded with BJP taking its place but in a weak position even in Hindu Jammu.  In 1983 it was a JKN vs INC battle with JKN winning with JMI and  separatist  JKPC still playing a minor role in Kashmir.  In 1984 was when the J&K began to head downward fast.  One of Indira Gandhi's last acts a few month before she was assassinated was that he arranged for the JKN to be split  with Farooq Abdullah's brother-in-law Ghulam Mohammad Shah leading a bloc of JKN MLAs to create a splinter JKN party and became CM with INC support.  Farooq Abdullah's JKN started to fight in the streets to the loss of power.  The war in Afghanistan against the USSR  also led to a surge of Islamic radicalism which also led to greater protests.   Law and order became such an issue as to make J&K ungovernable and the Ghulam Mohammad Shah ministry had to be dismissed in 1986.

Rajiv Ghandhi then made a deal with  Farooq Abdullah where in the 1987 election JKN-INC will form an alliance and pretty much monopolize power in J&K.  But the genie has been let out of the bottle.  The Islamic radicalism which JKN help to promote when it was out of power took a life of its own and used JMI as a core to form a grand radical Muslim-Kashmir separatist umbrella MUF.  In order to make sure MUF does not make gains there was significant rigging of the election results with MUF winning only 4 seats.  It was estimated that MUF should have won 20+ seats in the 76 member J&K assembly.   Separatist  JKPC running separately clearly did not help the MUF cause.  But the 1987 assembly election was a clear turning point. All truest in the Indian government and election process in Kashmir disappeared.  Law and order totally broken down as armed insurgency became the main method of opposition.   Radical Islam began to dominate in Kashmir where large number of Hindus were driven out of Kashmir in 1989-1990.  The 1989 LS election saw turnout in Kashmir crash to single digits with JKN taking meaningless victories in Kashmir.  By 1990 Kashmir was a war zone and  the   Farooq Abdullah government had to be dismissed and he left India soon after that .  In the 1990-1996 period no elections took place in J&K as Kashmir moved into a insurgency conflict.

After years of battle the insurgency began to recede that by 1996 LS elections J&K was able to hold elections even as JKN boycotted them.  A JD government came into power after the 1996 LS elections and made a deal with Farooq Abdullah  for him to return and lead JKN in the 1996 J&K assembly election.  The 1996 was the first post-insurgency election and saw a landslide JKN victory and Farooq Abdullah reinstalled as CM of J&K

1996 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          85                 7             20.40%

INC rebel                         1              1.80%

AIIC(T)        9                  1              0.70% (INC splinter)

JKN            81                57             34.78%

JKN rebel                         1              2.73%

JKAL          27                  1              2.43% (JKN splinter)

BJP            53                  8            12.13%

BJP rebel                         0              0.88%

JD             76                  5            10.87%

BSP           29                  4              6.43%

JKNPP        27                  1              2.25% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            4                  1              0.96%

JKN mostly swept the Kashmir seats and the Jammu seats are mostly split between INC, BJP, JD, and BSP with JKN winning the Muslim seats in Jammu.  The various separatists opposition and insurgency mostly boycotted the polls but they would not have done well given the damage they inflicted during the peak of the insurgency in the early 1990s. 

[jaichind]

After the return of Farooq Abdullah's JKN to power to J&K tensions continue to diffuse in J&K as the armed insurgency continues to fall.   In the meantime the JD government at the federal level with outside INC support continues to bicker and loses support to BJP.  The fall of the JD government in 1998 and midterm LS election saw a BJP surge and a BJP government formed.  In J&K the BJP surge came in Hindu Jammu as BJP became the dominate party in Jammu while JKN continue to dominate Kashmir.

1998 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             6                  1             19.24%

INC rebel                        0               4.32%

JKN            6                  3              36.35%

KAL            1                   0              0.97% (JKN splinter)

BJP            6                   2             28.64%

BSP            4                  0              4.97%

The BJP government at the federal level was pulled down by AIADMK in 1999 leading to 1999 LS elections.  In between the 1998 and 1999 LS elections two key events took place which would have a large impact on J&K politics.

First India and Pakistan fought a low intensity called the Kargil War (Kragil being in Ladkah) which India mostly prevailed but had the two nuclear power coming to total war led to a rethink on both sides to find ways to deescalate the Kasmir conflict.  This would play a key role in the early 2000s thaw in conflict in J&K.  Second INC Muslim leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed left INC to form his separate PDP.  Mufti was a member of JKN back in the 1950s and stayed in the pro-INC faction of JKN after  Sheikh Abdullah was removed from power.  He joined INC when the pro-INC JKN faction merged into INC.  In the late 1980s he had a falling out with Rajiv Gandhi and joined JD.  He rejoined INC in the early 1990s but in 1999 left INC again when it was clear that Sonia Gandhi was now the top dog in INC as he is from the anti-Rajiv Gandhi branch of INC.  PDP platform is more sovereigntist while JKN is more pro-autonomy.


The creation of PDP led J&K to turn into a 4 party system (JKN INC BJP PDP) where JKN will fight PDP in Kashmir and Muslims pars of Jammu while INC will fight BJP in Hindu parts of Jammu.   The 1999 LS election took place too quick for PDP to make a big splash but it was able to capture some vote share.  The BJP surge continues eating into the INC Hindu vote.

1999 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             5                  0             17.83%

JKN            6                  4              28.94%

JKAL           3                   0              1.84% (JKN splinter)

PDP            4                  0              6.86%

BJP            6                   2             31.56%

BSP            2                  0              4.84%

After the BJP returned to power in a bid to de-escalate the J&K problem the BJP brought JKN into the NDA with Farooq Abdullah's and and heir Omar Abdullah joining the NDA cabinet.

[jaichind]

The 2002 J&K assembly election took place under a circumstance of thaw in the Kashmir conflict.  Also the BJP is clearly running into anti-incumbency at the federal level.  Both trends tend to help the INC relative to the BJP in the Jammu area.  The rise of an sovereigntist alternative in the PDP is also drawing some of the separatist vote to come out to PDP which means that JKN loses ground in Kashmir to PDP.  The result of this 4 way fight was a clear hung assembly.

2002 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          81                23             25.27%

INC rebel                         3               2.72%

DM              1                  1              0.62% (INC splinter)

JKN            85                28             28.24%

JKN rebel                         3              1.73%

PDF             2                  1              0.80% (JKN splinter)

JKAL            9                  1              0.91% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         64                17            11.32%

PDP rebel                         1             0.82%

BJP+          63                  2            10.48%

BJP rebel                         0              1.08%

BSP           33                  1              4.50%

JKNPP        36                  4             3.83% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            7                  2              0.88%

Both PDP and INC outperformed relative to the 1999 LS election results.  The PDP effort was especially helped by the efforts of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's daughter Mehbooba Mufti who was his clear political heir.


After much haggling a PDP-INC government was formed by cobbling up various independents with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed taking on the CM role for 3 years out of the 6 year term and INC taking the CM for the remaining 3 years.  This election cemented the 4 party system of J&K.  If you look at the spectrum of Muslim and Hindu the relative lean of each of these 4 parties are

      BJP                INC                 JKN                 PDP
  <-------------------------------------------------------->
 Hindu                                                               Muslim

with BJP appealing to Hindu and very little Muslims, PDP appealing to Muslims and very little Hindus, INC appealing to mostly Hindus but some Muslims, and JKN appealing to mostly Muslims but some Hindus.  Obviously parties like BSP appeal to Dalits which would be mostly Hindus.  So in Hindu districts it would be BJP vs INC with JKN sometimes getting in there.  In Muslim seats it would be JKN vs PDP with INC sometimes getting in there.  In Buddhist plurality Ladkah it is mostly INC vs BJP for the Buddhist vote with a clear INC advantage and JKN vs PDP for the Muslim vote with JKN with a clear advantage.

The 2004 LS elections which saw BJP defeated at the federal level saw INC and its local ally PDP forming a tactical alliance and taking most of the seats but JKN still doing well enough to best PDP in the Kashmir region as anti-incumbency builds up against PDP in Kashmir.

2004 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          4                  3              30.81% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of INC+)

PDP            3                  1              11.94%

JKN            6                  2              22.02%

BJP            6                   0             23.04%

BSP            3                  0              2.22%

JKNPP        4                   0              3.02% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

BJP outperformed their 2002 assembly election vote share but that is partly because turnout for LS elections in Kashmir is lower relative to Jammu.  It is sort of SF in North Ireland not taking their seats in the UK parliament.  Separatists in Kashmir do not recognize Indian rule so they often do not turn out in LS elections but will turn out, starting in the early 2000s for assembly elections.  So the relative vote count in Jammu in higher than Kashmir in LS elections.   Of course part of it is because BJP does better in LS elections given that popular BJP PM  Vajpayee is running at the top of the BJP effort.  Of course the BJP level of support is a significant drop relative to 1998 and 1999 at the peak of the Vajpayee  wave.   Most of that drop went to INC.

[jaichind]

The 2008 J&K assembly election saw the INC and PDP alliance fall apart and running separately.  The INC lost ground across the board due to anti-incumbency at the federal level with BJP making gains at the expense of INC in Jammu.

2008 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          82                17             18.71%

INC rebel                         0               3.38%
 
JKN+          87               29             23.61% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of JKN+)

JKN rebel                         0              1.91%

PDF            27                 1              1.80% (JKN splinter)

JKANC        56                 0              1.02% (JKN splinter)

PDP            78               21            15.33%

PDP rebel                         0             1.40%

JKDPN        25                 1              1.25% (PDP splinter)

BJP             64               11            12.44%

BJP rebel                         2              1.36%

JKPC            2                 0              0.38% (Separatist)

BSP           83                  1              3.67%

JKNPP        36                  3             3.33% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            8                  1              0.80%

AIP             1                  1              0.20% (Separatist)

This election saw the participation of separatist outfits for the first time since the 1980s.  After some haggling JKN and INC formed an alliance and formed the government with JKN's Omar Abdullah  as CM as JKN leader Farooq Abdullah continued to work at the federal level.  

This JKN-INC alliance continued in the 2009 LS election where where INC outperformed in Northern India as well as Jammu leading to JKN-INC victory.

2009 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  5              43.78% (JKN was part of INC+)

JKN rebel                        0               0.94%
INC rebel                        0               1.25%

LUTF           1                  1                0.87% (Buddhist Ladkah party)

PDP            6                  0              20.05%

BJP            4                   0             18.61%

JKPC          1                   0              2.51% (Separatist)

BSP            5                  0              3.10%

JKNPP        2                   0             2.81% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

In Ladkah INC and JKN rebels running against the INC candidate threw the election to LUTF  which is really a Buddhist Ladkah INC splinter.  INC won re-election at the federal level as well.  Once again JKPC which is a Separatist party also ran in this election.

[jaichind]

The 2014 LS elections where held with INC credibility shot and the surge of the Modi wave.  In J&K JKN-INC ran as allies to no avail as there was also anti-incumbency against the JKN-INC government.  The result was a PDP sweep of Kashmir and BJP sweep of Jammu.  In Ladkah INC splinter LUTF ran on the BJP ticket and won with an INC rebel to split INC vote.

2014 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  0              34.29% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.33%

PDP+         6                  3              21.52% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            6                   3             32.65%

JKPC          1                   0              2.01% (Separatist)

BSP            4                  0              1.53%

JKNPP        5                   0             1.23% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             0.62%  (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K LS election (Kashmir)

JKN           3                  0              34.86% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.41%

PDP           3                   3             46.89%

BJP            3                   0              1.38%

JKPC          1                   0              6.25% (Separatist)

JKNPP        3                   0             0.80% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             1.94%  (Separatist)

In Kashmir it is mostly PDP vs JKN (backed by INC).  With the situation deteriorating in Kashmir the Muslim vote swung over to the sovereignists PDP on an anti-incumbent wave.  The Separatist vote is also growing.  BJP is very weak here as there are very few Hindus left in Kashmir.
 


2014 J&K LS election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           1                  0              22.60%

INC rebel                        0             26.60%

ISK            1                  0              24.17% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            1                   1             26.63% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF ran on BJP ticket)

Here the Muslim vote split between the ISK and INC Muslim rebel.  LUTF running as BJP was able to win enough of the Buddhist vote away from the INC candidate to win.



2014 J&K LS election (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            2                  0              34.60% (backed by JKN)

PDP            2                  0                8.73%

BJP            2                  2              48.56%

BSP           2                  0                2.09%

JKNPP        2                  0               1.51% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

Here it is INC (backed by JKN) vs BJP with PDP taking some votes in Muslim areas.  The Hindu vote clearly swung over to BJP by a large margin leaving it with a clear victory.

After the LS election a BJP government was formed at eh federal level.  The INC-JKN alliance ended given the disastrous election results.  The thinking in both parties was that part of its base defected to BJP (for INC) or PDP (for JKN) given the negativity toward the other ally.  And for the upcoming J&K assembly election it is best to part ways to try to save as many votes as possible.