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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Roy Rogers McFreely)
  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 26250 times)
Old School Republican
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« Reply #550 on: May 23, 2019, 12:15:40 am »

Watching the NDTV pundits trying to navigate all of the various crosstabs and state results and alliances versus parties is kind of hilarious.

Agreed
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jaichind
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« Reply #551 on: May 23, 2019, 12:17:05 am »

Wouldn’t u say this is more like UK 1983 than US 1936


In 1936 the Dems were dominant in every part of the nation while in the UK the Thatcher landslide was based on sweeping wins in England even though they got wiped out in Scotland

I use 1936 because 1932 FDR won mostly won based on anti-incumbency.  His 1936 reelection was based on a large realignment to produce a pro-incumbent surge.  UK 1983 is more about the LAB and LIB-SDP split.  Here even if INC did a better job with alliances the result would be the same, in retrospect. 
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RoboWop
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« Reply #552 on: May 23, 2019, 12:17:21 am »

Might do a hold/pick-up map tomorrow if I have the time and results are out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #553 on: May 23, 2019, 12:17:59 am »

At this rate INC would be lucky to cross 60 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #554 on: May 23, 2019, 12:20:19 am »

WB vote share is now

AITC  45.1%
BJP    38.9%
Left     6.9%
INC     5.4%

BJP most likely will start to lose ground in terms of seat count here if this vote share sustains itself.
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jaichind
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« Reply #555 on: May 23, 2019, 12:22:59 am »

MP seat count now BJP 23 INC 6 so INC is losing ground like I expected given the ECI reported vote share.  I think INC will end up losing all its seats here as counting goes on.
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jaichind
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« Reply #556 on: May 23, 2019, 12:28:36 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya
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jaichind
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« Reply #557 on: May 23, 2019, 12:35:30 am »

SENSEX up 2.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #558 on: May 23, 2019, 12:38:41 am »

Not many votes are on ECI for Odisha but the vote share so far are

BJD                      42.7%
BJP                      36.9%
INC-JMM-CPM-CPI 15.3%

It seems BJD has survived the storm
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jaichind
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« Reply #559 on: May 23, 2019, 12:40:37 am »

TN vote share

DMK-INC bloc        52.6%
AIADMK-BJP bloc   30.1%
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #560 on: May 23, 2019, 12:41:21 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people
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jaichind
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« Reply #561 on: May 23, 2019, 12:42:36 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

Well, I think the BJP is not moving on that because they want the issue more than the temple.  Of course their grassroots want the temple more than the issue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #562 on: May 23, 2019, 12:50:04 am »

In Assam's Kokrajhar, ex-INC ally UPP(L) is ahead and the ex-ULFA incumbent is running second.  BJP ally BPF surprising is running third. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #563 on: May 23, 2019, 12:51:53 am »

Uttarakhand vote share

BJP   60.7%
INC   31.7%
BSP    4.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #564 on: May 23, 2019, 12:55:21 am »

Telangana seat so far is TRS 8 BJP 6 INC 3.  Unlikely to hold given ECI vote share reported as TRS 42% INC 29.5% BJP 18.5%.  BJP leading in Hyderbad over AIMIM clearly cannot hold.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #565 on: May 23, 2019, 12:57:41 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people



Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.
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jaichind
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« Reply #566 on: May 23, 2019, 01:00:22 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people



Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #567 on: May 23, 2019, 01:14:43 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people



Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #568 on: May 23, 2019, 01:16:36 am »

UP vote share (slight shift away from BJP)

BJP              49.1%
SP-BSP-RLD  39.1%
INC                6.0%

The SP-BSL-RLD vote share is actually not that bad and is only slightly below what these 3 parties got in 2014.  What really is pushing BJP ahead is the collapse of the INC vote and BJP consolidation other votes that went to minor players in 2014.  This seems the INC strategy in reverse.  INC was going to cut into the BJP vote by running separately from SP-BSP-RLD but instead they lost votes to BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #569 on: May 23, 2019, 01:17:58 am »

Slight shift toward NDA

NDA    329(-23)
UPA      99(+34)
OTH    114(-11)

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jaichind
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« Reply #570 on: May 23, 2019, 01:19:04 am »

YSRCP ahead in 24 out of 25 seats in AP.  Massive landslide
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urutzizu
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« Reply #571 on: May 23, 2019, 01:19:16 am »

Rahul Gandhi is still trailing in Amethi. And why are NDTV pundits taking Telengana results at face value?
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jaichind
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« Reply #572 on: May 23, 2019, 01:24:11 am »

Rahul Gandhi is still trailing in Amethi. And why are NDTV pundits taking Telengana results at face value?

ECI numbers are further behind media counts so Rahul Gandhi is still ahead.  ECI are good for getting vote shares that gives you  sense what the macro picture looks like while a seat by seat picture is not accurate.   I think NDTV did show surprise that AIMIM is behind BJP in Hyderbad. 
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #573 on: May 23, 2019, 01:24:59 am »
« Edited: May 23, 2019, 01:28:11 am by Old School Republican »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people



Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.


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Bagel23
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« Reply #574 on: May 23, 2019, 01:29:31 am »

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people



Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.



Yeah, but I’d be willing to bet a penny or two on said mosque being torched by some hindutva element relatively quickly, there’s no point. Besides why is there even any talk of compromise? Muslims don’t hold any power or leverage to make any of that happened, they are powerless.
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