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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 22639 times)
urutzizu
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« Reply #600 on: May 23, 2019, 05:56:46 am »
« edited: May 23, 2019, 06:24:24 am by urutzizu »

India vote share:
NDA: 45%
UPA: 30%
Others: 25%

Four BJP seats in Telengana almost secure now. If there is anything that i would not have expected, it is that. It shows that the BJP has managed to penetrate the dravidian south outside of karnataka (where the BJP is at 25/28, and where the Cong-JD(S) Government is probably dead). The BJP is truly a national Party now, which is all the more remarkable considering its hindi-hindu-hindustan campaign. Also the Congress is on 55(+11) right now, almost 60% of the UPAs seats are from Kerala and TN.  
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urutzizu
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« Reply #601 on: May 23, 2019, 06:55:28 am »
« Edited: May 23, 2019, 07:00:48 am by urutzizu »

Anti-muslim Terrorist Pragya Singh Thakur has won by more than 200000 Votes for the BJP in Bhopal.
She is charged with a series of bombings that killed six people and injured more than 100.

Imagine if the Congress had run Masood Azhar as a candidate.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #602 on: May 23, 2019, 07:08:17 am »

Seems like best exit pollster is Today's Chanakya who was the best exit pollster in the 2014 LS election but then was off in several state assembly election and roundly mocked by me as hopelessly pro-BJP although I admitted that in BJP wave elections (like 2017 UP assembly election and now 2019 LS election) it is very accurate.

They have for 2019

BJP 300 ± 14 Seats                 
NDA 350 ± 14 Seats
Cong 55 ± 9 Seats                   
UPA 95 ± 9 Seats
Others 97 ± 11 Seats
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jaichind
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« Reply #603 on: May 23, 2019, 07:34:09 am »

Rahul Gandhi concedes defeat in Amethi.  That is symbolic of the Modi wave in 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #604 on: May 23, 2019, 07:39:58 am »

Back to my theme of BJP vs INC vision of nation building. I think another angle of the Ayodhya conflict is is about the fact that the masque there was build by Babur on top of an allegedly Ram Hindu temple.  The BJP/RSS narrative of Indian history does not consider the Moghul empire as a part of true Indian history.  They are seen as invaders just like the British.  Removing any symbols of this occupation is part of this national building narrative above and beyond the religious sentiments of Hindus toward the Ram temple that was supposedly there for centuries ago.

Most people I know believe this as well, and many tell me they were worse than the British as well.

Sure.  And I would argue this would be a big difference between the INC vision and BJP vision of India.  INC would would the Moghul empire as part of Indian history vs the British.  That is because the Moghul empire thought of itself as the Empire for Indians (ok with Central Asian connections as well) while the British ruled India in the name of a monarch living in a island thousands of miles away.  The INC vision would not rule out the Moghul empire as part of Indian history due to issues of religion or ethnic background but focus on "do you identify with India/Hindustan".  The BJP vision is more of a shared cultural heritage before the advent of the Muslim/Turkic invasions of the 1000AD+.  Anyone that identify that pre-1000AD cultural heritage is part of BJP vision of India.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #605 on: May 23, 2019, 07:45:55 am »

NDTV vote share

NDA   45%
UPA    29%
OTH    26%

So the UPA vote held up relative to pre-election polls (over-performing in the South but underpinning in the North) but the NDA vote share is higher than pre-election estimates.

Comparison to exit polls and estimates

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.7%             254                   30.8%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%                  93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128
CSDS                        41%                                          29%
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jaichind
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« Reply #606 on: May 23, 2019, 07:49:23 am »

NDA    344(-8)
UPA      90(+25)
OTH    108(-17)

INC at 53 seats which means they miss getting the Leader of Opposition position by one seat if that does not change.
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jaichind
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« Reply #607 on: May 23, 2019, 07:57:08 am »

On the subject of TN when all of TN votes on Thursday as part of Phase II voting there will be 22 by-elections for TN assembly which could determine if the AIADMK government would fall or not.

The 2016 TN assembly election produced:

AIADMK   136

DMK          89
INC            8
MUL           1

AMMK won the by-election for Jayalalitha's seat and the pro-TTV Dinakaran faction of AIADMK defected to AMMK and were disqualified by the AIADMK speaker.  So now we have

AIADMK    114

AMMK          1

DMK           88
INC              8
MUL             1
 
with 22 by-elections needed.  If AIADMK does not win at least 4-5 out of the 22 by-elections it will lose its majority and most likely early TN assembly elections are needed.  In many ways this elections is more important that the TN LS elections.   NDTV reports that the going rate for vote buying for the LS elections is around $50 per vote but the going rate for assembly by-elections are around $300 per vote.   These 22 by-elections will be a 3 way battles between AIADMK vs DMK vs AMMK with what I have to assume as the DMK with the edge given the old AIADMK base is split down the middle between AIADMK and AMMK.

AIADMK ahead in 9 out of 22 by-elections with DMK ahead in 13.  If so AIADMK hangs on to a majority by a wafer thin margin if these leads holds.  It is clear AIADMK

1) Threw more resources into the by-elections than the LS election as the by-elections means is survival
2) Lost a bunch of votes in the LS election due to alliance with BJP but with BJP in charge AIADMK had no choice and in the end BJP did not win 1 single seat in TN anyway.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #608 on: May 23, 2019, 08:02:56 am »



Oops. He's got a seat in Kerala though.
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jaichind
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« Reply #609 on: May 23, 2019, 08:10:58 am »

Other shocking results other than BJP landslide

1) INC ahead in Nagaland!!!??  BJP ex-ally NPF dropped out and backed INC to take on BJP ally and NPF splinter NDPP seems to have worked
2) NPF ahead in Outer Manipur.  Outer Manipur has a bunch of Naga voters but it was expected to be a BJP victory over INC here.  But instead the Naga vote consolidated behind NPF with the non-Naga vote split between INC and BJP
3) Telangana TRS 8 BJP 4 INC 4 AIMIM 1 is a shock.  The TRS has a large vote share lead over INC and BJP.  It seems that the anti-TRS vote tactically voted for INC or BJP to defeat TRS.  
4) AIMIM ahead in Maharastra's Aurangabad.  The Muslim-Dalit vote consolidated around AIMIM (abandoning INC along the way) and the non-Muslim-Dalit vote split between SHS and SHS rebel.
5) AP YSRCP 25-0 sweep over TDP
6) UPP ahead in Assam's Kokrajhar when it was suppose to be a BJP ally BPF fight versus the ex-ULFA incumbent MP.  UPP was allied with BJP in 2014 LS elections and then allied with INC in 2017 assembly election.  If this lead holds then this is a shiock
7) SDF lost in Sikkim to SDF splinter SKM.  Does not matter that much.  Both SDF and SKM are going to be BJP allies no matter who wins. Still SDF was expected to win easily
8  ) AAP won in Punjab's Sangrur when it was left for dead.  AAP vote share is in the single digits but the AAP incumbent MP had good personal appeal with INC and SAD splitting the rest of the vote.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #610 on: May 23, 2019, 08:14:25 am »

Dimple Yadav, wife if SP leader and former CM Akhilesh Yadav is behind in her seat which is a shock.  She won easily back in 2014 despite the Modi wave.  Now with BSP support she lost.

She is considered one of the most attractive of Indian women politicians but is sort of consider an airhead in political circles.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #611 on: May 23, 2019, 08:23:49 am »

In the 188 seats where it is mostly BJP vs INC the BJP won/is ahead 174-14.
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jaichind
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« Reply #612 on: May 23, 2019, 08:28:51 am »

Telangana vote share

TRS     41.3%
INC     29.6%
BJP     19.3%
AIMIM   2.8%

On the other hand seat count so far are TRS 8 BJP 4 INC 4 AIMIM 1.  Very clear sign of anti-TRS tactical voting.  It also seems a part of the 2018 assembly TRS vote was really the BJP vote that tactically voted TRS to defeat INC-TDP and now came back to BJP in the LS election.  KCR is very wise in holding the assembly election early in 2018 to get the win instead of having to deal with the Modi wave in the LS election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #613 on: May 23, 2019, 08:31:12 am »

NDA    349(-3)
UPA      88(+23)
OTH    105(-20)

BJP at 299 seats.  BJP president Amit Shah claimed during the election that the BJP goal in this election is to win 300 seats.  Many read that as NDA 300 seats and when asked to clarify he said "No BJP 300 seats" which provoked laughter.  I guess he now has the last laugh.
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jaichind
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« Reply #614 on: May 23, 2019, 08:42:40 am »

TN vote share

DMK-INC bloc       52.9%
AIADMK-BJP bloc  30.3%

This is is a repeat of 2004.  Unfortunately for INC that is the only state where this year it is a repeat of 2004.
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jaichind
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« Reply #615 on: May 23, 2019, 08:54:00 am »

Bihar vote share

BJP-JD(U)-LJP                53.3%
RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP  30.6% (31.6% if you add in CPI(ML) backed by UPA)
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jaichind
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« Reply #616 on: May 23, 2019, 09:01:46 am »

Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS                        50.9%
INC-NCP-SWP-BVA-YSP   35.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #617 on: May 23, 2019, 09:04:36 am »

Karnataka vote share

BJP-(BJP backed INC rebel)    53.3%
INC-JD(S)                             41.6%

Utter disaster for INC-JD(S)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #618 on: May 23, 2019, 09:06:14 am »

Another upset: Jyotiraditya Scindia trailing badly at Guna and presumably defeated. Elsewhere in the state, Chhindwara continues its unique record of unbroken Congress victories at General Elections,* though with a new candidate (Kamal Nath's son rather than the man himself this time) it was close.

*It was once lost at a by-election so not quite unbroken representation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #619 on: May 23, 2019, 09:12:04 am »

Haryana  vote share

BJP       57.9%
INC       28.5%
JJP-AAP   5.3%
INLD       1.9%

INLD and JJP-AAP together are only slightly above 7%.  What a massive defeat for the INLD and its splinter JJP.  This is part of the death of caste base (Jat) parties.  INC vote share is actually around what I thought it would be.  But the INLD vote completely collapsed and mostly went over to BJP
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tack50
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« Reply #620 on: May 23, 2019, 09:28:01 am »

So is this some sort of realignment where BJP/NDA has become the dominant party in India? I certainly can't see how UPA can get out of this one
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jaichind
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« Reply #621 on: May 23, 2019, 09:30:01 am »

Odisha count is very slow.  But now a lot of votes are in we can look at vote share again

BJD                       42.9%
BJP                       38.3%
INC-JMM-CPM-CPI  14.6%

All things equal BJD managed to contain the BJP storm and held on to its vote share even as the INC vote collapsed and shifted to BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #622 on: May 23, 2019, 09:35:26 am »

So is this some sort of realignment where BJP/NDA has become the dominant party in India? I certainly can't see how UPA can get out of this one

This is a shift to a post-caste partisan alignment.  In many ways if INC can figure out a way to survive this might be good for the INC on the long run.  The pre-1989 domination of INC was broken both by the rise of BJP's Hindu nationalism but also by the rise caste base parties.  This election more broke the caste base parties more than INC.  At some stage in the future, and it seems far future, the BJP narrative will exhaust itself and if INC is still around they can take over that space versus the caste based parties. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #623 on: May 23, 2019, 09:44:13 am »

UP vote share

BJP-AD(S)      50.7%
SP-BSP-RLD   39.0%
INC                 6.2%

SP splinter PSP(L) got very little but PSP(L) founder and leader Shivpal Singh Yadav did cut into the SP vote in Firozabad to let in BJP defeating SP candidate which is his cousin along the way.
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jaichind
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« Reply #624 on: May 23, 2019, 09:46:01 am »

NDA    348(-4)
UPA      91(+26)
OTH    103(-22)

BJP at 300 and INC at 53.  In UP it is now BJP-AD(S) 60 SP-BSP-RLD 19 INC 1 just like those "wild" pro-BJP exit polls predicted.
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