Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 23, 2019, 09:21:49 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Socialist Mod Stands with ProudWhatsHisName)
  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 [26] 27 28 29 30 31 Print
Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 22791 times)
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #625 on: May 23, 2019, 09:52:55 am »

Core BJP-INC swing states

Rajasthan vote share

BJP-RLP   60.5%
INC          34.2%


Gujarat vote share

BJP        62.2%
INC        32.1%


Chhattisgarh vote share

BJP        50.8%
INC        40.8%
BSP         2.3%


MP vote share

BJP       58.0%
INC       34.5%
BSP-SP   2.6%


HP vote share

BJP      69.0% !!!
INC      27.4%


Uttarakhand vote share

BJP      60.7%
INC      31.6%
BSP       4.5%
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #626 on: May 23, 2019, 09:58:33 am »

Delhi vote share

BJP     56.6%
INC     22.5%
AAP    18.1%

As mentioned before this seems to indicate that INC is taking back some of its lost votes to AAP from a few years ago and that an INC-AAP alliance would have made no difference.
Logged
Ishan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,631
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #627 on: May 23, 2019, 10:00:25 am »

What are the Andra Pradesh results?
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,991


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #628 on: May 23, 2019, 10:06:02 am »

As noted earlier, this elections message doesn't seem so bad for the INC, just like the BJP they killed some of the caste based parties but in less states. Like any other party caught on the backside of a realignment they need to rework their strategy, in these case towards a more nationally focused message. The parties that should be running scared after this election are the TRS, AITC, and probably a few others. If what is happening is the rise of the national BJP/NDA brand, then a national INC/UPA brand with eventually rise to challenge them, finally introducing India to that two-party squeeze so common in FPTP.

Aligning with one camp or another has to be much more tempting now, rather then going into an election 'alone.'
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #629 on: May 23, 2019, 10:12:52 am »

What are the Andra Pradesh results?

Total blowout.  Looks like YSRCP 25 TDP 0 (although a bunch of seats are close).  Vote share are

YSRCP    49.2%
TDP        39.7%
INC         1.3%
BJP          0.9%

When I have time I have to compute the JSP-BSP vote share.  I am pretty sure JSP is something around 5%-7%
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #630 on: May 23, 2019, 10:16:22 am »

Kerala vote share

INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP      47.3%
Left Front                        35.1%
BJP-BDJS-KEC(T)             15.6%

The Left Front lost less votes to NDA than expected.  BJP was expected to win Thiruvananthapuram but Left Front voters seems to voted tactically for INC instead.  I guess the anti-Hindi sentiments still plague BJP brand in the deep south.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #631 on: May 23, 2019, 10:17:50 am »

I wonder if the BJP continue building their Hindu Indo-Aryan brand and political coalition there might be a revival of something that died with the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by LTTE Tamil extremists: Dravidian Separatism. 
Logged
RoboWop
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,601
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #632 on: May 23, 2019, 10:19:48 am »



Oops. He's got a seat in Kerala though.

Yes, but losing Amethi is a disastrous symbol for his party. The seat has been held by three Gandhis, none receiving less than a majority and frequently not contested. Imagine Joe Kennedy III losing re-election. (I think you already know this, but I am emphasizing for anyone coming across this thread confused.)
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #633 on: May 23, 2019, 10:24:19 am »



Oops. He's got a seat in Kerala though.

Yes, but losing Amethi is a disastrous symbol for his party. The seat has been held by three Gandhis, none receiving less than a majority and frequently not contested. Imagine Joe Kennedy III losing re-election. (I think you already know this, but I am emphasizing for anyone coming across this thread confused.)

Totally.  The last time the Gandhi clan lost Amethi was in 1977 in the anti-Indira Gandhi wave and her son Sanjay Gandhi lost (by a mile) here.  But I guess this defeat shows that this was a true wave, even more so than 2014.
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,920
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #634 on: May 23, 2019, 10:54:34 am »

I wonder if the BJP continue building their Hindu Indo-Aryan brand and political coalition there might be a revival of something that died with the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by LTTE Tamil extremists: Dravidian Separatism. 

Doubt it, but they deserve better.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #635 on: May 23, 2019, 11:10:28 am »

NDTV count has a bug.  The leader of Amravati in Maharashtra is labeled as an unaligned independent when it is a UPA backed YSP candidate and should be counted as part of UPA.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #636 on: May 23, 2019, 11:44:53 am »

Two real non-aligned independents are ahead

In Dadra & Nagar Haveli an INCrebel andex-MP captured the entire INC vote and is ahead of the BJP incumbent who beat him as the INC candidate back in 2014.  Seems like the INC made a real mistake in not nominating him.

In Kokrajhar the incumbent ex-ULFA MP is slightly ahead of BJP ally BPF.
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,998
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #637 on: May 23, 2019, 11:50:21 am »

As noted earlier, this elections message doesn't seem so bad for the INC, just like the BJP they killed some of the caste based parties but in less states. Like any other party caught on the backside of a realignment they need to rework their strategy, in these case towards a more nationally focused message. The parties that should be running scared after this election are the TRS, AITC, and probably a few others. If what is happening is the rise of the national BJP/NDA brand, then a national INC/UPA brand with eventually rise to challenge them, finally introducing India to that two-party squeeze so common in FPTP.

Aligning with one camp or another has to be much more tempting now, rather then going into an election 'alone.'

This. There is a YUGE market for a left-of-center or at least a liberal civic-nationalist party in India. Not only for the sake of Indian democracy but for the sake of Indian development, too. My bff from Bangalore is a Leftist who is a BJP person who likes Modi but deplores the bigotry. There are plenty of voters who share this sentiment over there I am sure. There could be a market in India in the future as the BJP becomes the "establishment elite" and there becomes room for a progressive nationalist party. That could years or decades away before they make anything competitive but India really needs a nationalist, globalist party that will help make India more compatible and competitive. A secular, "progressive", and "conservative" party as opposed to an ethno-sectarian national populist one.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,991


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #638 on: May 23, 2019, 12:15:07 pm »
« Edited: May 23, 2019, 12:36:59 pm by Oryxslayer »

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,216


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #639 on: May 23, 2019, 12:16:49 pm »

Trump already gave his thoughts:

Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,283
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #640 on: May 23, 2019, 12:43:51 pm »

In the current Lok Sabha, the BJP-led coalition government has 341 seats total (with 269 for the BJP) that they won in the last election.

Given the BJP looks like they are winning 300 seats alone, how big do you think the coalition majority will be if you include the parties likely to join with them in forming the next government?  Around 370?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 62,469
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #641 on: May 23, 2019, 01:59:20 pm »

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

Actually one huge factor in what has just happened appears to be that a lot of alliances between opposition parties backfired big time, to the benefit of the BJP. With the exception of the BSP they would probably all have won more seats had they run alone.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,991


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #642 on: May 23, 2019, 02:12:38 pm »

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

Actually one huge factor in what has just happened appears to be that a lot of alliances between opposition parties backfired big time, to the benefit of the BJP. With the exception of the BSP they would probably all have won more seats had they run alone.

By alliances here do you mean seat-allotments or party blocks? The later only really hurt JD(S), SP, and AIADMK, but some of these were always going to get punished. In that case then it makes sense if seats were divided up in between opposition blocks - the BJP has the best brand and will win a good number of 1 v 1 races with whomever. But if the INC brand starts improving in the future, then there really is little space left for third parties unless they hitch their horse to the big two.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,829
Mexico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #643 on: May 23, 2019, 02:39:48 pm »

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

Actually one huge factor in what has just happened appears to be that a lot of alliances between opposition parties backfired big time, to the benefit of the BJP. With the exception of the BSP they would probably all have won more seats had they run alone.

By alliances here do you mean seat-allotments or party blocks? The later only really hurt JD(S), SP, and AIADMK, but some of these were always going to get punished. In that case then it makes sense if seats were divided up in between opposition blocks - the BJP has the best brand and will win a good number of 1 v 1 races with whomever. But if the INC brand starts improving in the future, then there really is little space left for third parties unless they hitch their horse to the big two.

Alliances often backfire because parties incorrectly assume that the base voters of another party will automatically transfer their votes to their candidates when, in practice, many Yadavs clearly prefer the BJP to the BSP and certainly many non-Yadav OBC who might prefer the SP to the BJP prefer the BJP to the BSP. The same applies for Jatavs and non-Jatav Dalits, of course.

Because Indian politics is largely about clientalism and caste, alliances can easily backfire. Voters often have little reason to be loyal to an alliance - they might vote for Party X, not because they have faith in Party X, but due to a weak preference for Party X's caste alignment. In this case, it's easy to see why this kind of voter might not transfer their vote!
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #644 on: May 23, 2019, 03:07:50 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2019, 07:38:35 am by jaichind »

I did my own vote share computation and got

NDA:  45.4% (37.8% BJP)
UPA    27.1% (19.7% INC) [UPA is 27.3% if you add in votes for seats where UPA did not run and backed tactical allies (JKN in J&K, CPI(ML) in Bihar, RJD in Jharkhand, Left Front in WB)

Back in 2014 it was
NDA:  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:   23.1% (19.3% INC)

So INC vote share did not go up at all but INC got some extra allies.  BJP vote share grew a lot.

By state

                          BJP    NDA allies  NDA Total      INC   UPA Allies    UPA Total
J&K                    46.7%                   46.7%      28.7%                    28.7%
HP                     69.7%                    69.7%     27.5%                    27.5%
Haryana             58.2%                   58.2%      28.5%                    28.5%
Punjab                9.7%        27.8%   37.5%     40.6%                     40.6%
Delhi                 56.9%                    56.9%      22.6%                    22.6%
Uttarakhand       61.7%                    61.7%     31.7%                    31.7%
UP                     50.0%        1.2%    51.2%       6.4%        0.1%       6.4%
Bihar                 24.1%       30.3%   54.3%       7.9%     23.4%      31.2%
MP                    58.5%                    58.5%     34.8%                     34.8%
Rajasthan          59.1%        2.1%    61.1%      34.6%                    34.6%
Chhattisgarh     51.4%                    51.4%       41.5%                    41.5%
Jharkhand         51.6%        4.4%    56.0%      15.8%     16.8%      32.6%
Gujarat             63.1%                    63.1%      32.6%                    32.6%
Maharashtra      27.8%       23.5%   51.3%      16.4%     19.0%      35.5%
Goa                  51.9%                    51.9%      43.6%                    43.6%
WB                   40.6%                   40.6%        5.7%                      5.7%
Orissa               38.9%                   38.9%      14.0%      1.0%       14.9%
Karnataka         51.7%      2.0%      53.8%      32.1%      9.7%       41.9%
AP                     1.0%                     1.0%         1.3%                      1.3%
Telangana         19.7%                    19.7%     29.8%                     29.8%
TN                     3.7%      27.0%    30.7%      12.9%     40.4%      53.3%
Kerala              13.0%       2.6%     15.6%      37.5%    10.0%       47.5%
A&N                 45.6%                   45.6%      46.3%                     46.3%
Chandigarh       51.1%                   51.1%      40.7%                     40.7%
D&N H             41.5%                   41.5%        4.4%                       4.4%
D&D                43.7%                    43.7%      32.2%                     32.2%
Pondicherry                     31.9%     31.9%      57.1%                     57.1%
Lakshadweep    0.3%                      0.3%       47.0%                     47.0%
Assam              36.4%     10.9%    47.3%      35.7%                      35.7%
Arunachal P      58.4%                   58.4%      21.2%                      21.2%
Manipur           34.3%                    34.3%      24.7%                     24.7%
Mizoram            5.8%                     5.8%      43.5%                      43.5%
Nagaland                        49.8%    49.8%      48.2%                      48.2%
Tripura           49.5%                    49.5%       25.6%                      25.6%
Meghalaya        8.0%                      8.0%      48.7%                       48.7%
Sikkim            4.8%                       4.8%       1.2%                         1.2%

Total              37.8%         7.6%    45.4%     19.7%      7.4%         27.1%
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #645 on: May 23, 2019, 03:18:54 pm »
« Edited: May 23, 2019, 06:20:41 pm by jaichind »

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

Actually one huge factor in what has just happened appears to be that a lot of alliances between opposition parties backfired big time, to the benefit of the BJP. With the exception of the BSP they would probably all have won more seats had they run alone.

That clearly took place in Karnataka where INC and JD(S) local cadres were clearly and openly working against their allies given their ancient rivalry.

In Bihar it was clear that JD(U) splinter and ex-NDA member RLSP and RJD were not able to transfer votes to each other  but overall the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP did not really subtract value.  It was just not able to overcome the Modi wave.

In UP I would argue that SP-BSP-RLD alliance worked.  The 2019 SP-BSP-RLD vote share it really roughly similar to the 2014 vote shares of these parties.  What really took place is BJP-AD(S) cleaned up everyone else to gain extra votes to smash the alliance.  Had the SP-BSP-RLD alliance not taken place then I suspect that BJP-AD(S) might have ended up with 77-78 seats versus the 64 they ended up with.

In Maharashtra the INC-NCP alliance did not work well but neither  did  BJP-SHS.  It was just that the Modi factor added a bunch of votes to BJP-SHS.  UPA in Maharashtra actually got 35.5% of the vote by my calculation and is actually a slight improvement from 2014 when UPA got 35.0%.

In TN the DMK-INC-CPI-CPM-VCK-IMUL-MDMK-IJK-KMDK alliance worked very well.  But that is more about the AIADMK alliance lost out due to the toxic brand of BJP as an ally.

In Kerala INC did a good job of getting KEC(M) back into its alliance of INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP which swept the polls.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #646 on: May 23, 2019, 03:23:03 pm »

In the current Lok Sabha, the BJP-led coalition government has 341 seats total (with 269 for the BJP) that they won in the last election.

Given the BJP looks like they are winning 300 seats alone, how big do you think the coalition majority will be if you include the parties likely to join with them in forming the next government?  Around 370?

BJP would be more interested in allies that get them a bunch of Upper House seats since NDA still lack a clear majority there.  But BJD is de facto lean NDA anyway and BJP get get YSRCP and TRS to back them as needed since the central government hows cash that AP and Telangana state government needs.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #647 on: May 23, 2019, 03:27:09 pm »

Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

NDA+UPA vote share of 73.2% (that is my current number) is not unprecedented.  In 1999 the sum of NDA and UPA exceeded this number and in 2004 it was similar.  I think the sum of BJP+INC vote share of 57.5% is huge.  Last time we had anything like that was in 1991 when the sum was 56.5%.  In fact 1989-1991 was the period of the rise of the caste base parties which ate away at INC's vote starting that time and blocked the growth of the BJP.  This election seems to be the smashing of such caste base parties which led to a new high for the INC+BJP vote share.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #648 on: May 23, 2019, 03:30:59 pm »

NDA    350(-2)
UPA      92(+27)
OTH    100(-25)

BJP has 301 and INC 54.  I think INC with 54 is just enough to get Leader of Opposition spot.  I guess that some sort of progress from 2014.  BJP+INC at 354 seats is also a post-1991 high when INC+BJP seat count was 364.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,995
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #649 on: May 23, 2019, 03:54:14 pm »

Jaichind, can you explain to us exactly why the "winning party's seat count keeps growing as the counting goes on" phenomenon occurs? That was clearly the case tonight, since early seat counts had UPA flipping 50 seats or so from the NDA, and almost all those flips evaporated as counting went on. I have no idea why that would happen, though. I could understand if the counting bias always favored the UPA early on and the NDA always grew as the night went on, but you seem to suggest that whatever party is winning will be underestimated early on, which I can't think of a mechanism for.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 [26] 27 28 29 30 31 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC