2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Telangana seat so far is TRS 8 BJP 6 INC 3.  Unlikely to hold given ECI vote share reported as TRS 42% INC 29.5% BJP 18.5%.  BJP leading in Hyderbad over AIMIM clearly cannot hold.

[jaichind]

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

[jaichind]

UP vote share (slight shift away from BJP)

BJP              49.1%
SP-BSP-RLD  39.1%
INC                6.0%

The SP-BSL-RLD vote share is actually not that bad and is only slightly below what these 3 parties got in 2014.  What really is pushing BJP ahead is the collapse of the INC vote and BJP consolidation other votes that went to minor players in 2014.  This seems the INC strategy in reverse.  INC was going to cut into the BJP vote by running separately from SP-BSP-RLD but instead they lost votes to BJP.

[jaichind]

Slight shift toward NDA

NDA    329(-23)
UPA      99(+34)
OTH    114(-11)

[jaichind]

YSRCP ahead in 24 out of 25 seats in AP.  Massive landslide

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi is still trailing in Amethi. And why are NDTV pundits taking Telengana results at face value?

ECI numbers are further behind media counts so Rahul Gandhi is still ahead.  ECI are good for getting vote shares that gives you  sense what the macro picture looks like while a seat by seat picture is not accurate.   I think NDTV did show surprise that AIMIM is behind BJP in Hyderbad. 

[jaichind]

Kerala not going well at all for Left Front but also surprising also not well for BJP.  Rahul Gandhi is making an impact here

INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP   47.4%
Left Front                      31.2% (does not count a couple of pro-Left independents so the real vote share is around 33%-34%)
BJP                               12.5%

[jaichind]

Further shift toward NDA

NDA    331(-21)
UPA      94(+29)
OTH    117(-8)

This is that shift I was talking about that the winning side gains as time continues.

[jaichind]

NDTV expresses "shock" that MP is now BJP 28 INC 1.  Of course I been saying for a while now that this will be the case.  Just look at the ECI vote shares will tell you the seat share result.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra is now at BJP-SHS 43 NCP 4 AIMIM 1.  INC completely shut out with zero.  AIMIM ahead in Aurangabad because the Hindu vote there split between SHS INC and a SHS rebel.

[jaichind]

Odisha assembly so far it is BJD 101 BJP 26 INC+ 13.   AP assembly so far is YSRCP 145 TDP 25

[jaichind]

NDTV now has Rahul Gandhi behind in Amethi

[jaichind]

INC now down to 54 seats.  If that does not go up then just like 2014 INC might not even get the position of Leader of Opposition.

[jaichind]

Back to my theme of BJP vs INC vision of nation building. I think another angle of the Ayodhya conflict is is about the fact that the masque there was build by Babur on top of an allegedly Ram Hindu temple.  The BJP/RSS narrative of Indian history does not consider the Moghul empire as a part of true Indian history.  They are seen as invaders just like the British.  Removing any symbols of this occupation is part of this national building narrative above and beyond the religious sentiments of Hindus toward the Ram temple that was supposedly there for centuries ago.

[jaichind]

The ECI result site crashed ... sigh..

[jaichind]

Further shift toward NDA

NDA    340(-12)
UPA      90(+25)
OTH    112(-13)

[jaichind]

Telangana now at TRS 9 BJP 4 INC 3 AIMIM 1.  I think TRS will gain a couple of more seats but it seems overall TRS under-performed.  It seems KCR's move to call assembly elections early in 2018 was very wise.  INC also learned the right less from the 2018 assembly election to drop TDP as its ally.  That mostly got some of the anti-TDP vote to come back and that hurt TRS enough to also get BJP ahead in some seats.

[jaichind]

Assam vote share (massive BJP surge in a state where the Muslim population is above 30%)

BJP-AGP-BPF  47.7%
INC               32.6%
AIUDF             8.6%

[jaichind]

It seems that although AIADMK was smashed in LS elections it did fairly well in the assembly by-elections.  Most likely for now the AIADMK government will survive.  If so then it is clear that AIADMK should not have allied with BJP in the LS elections as it drove the anti-BJP vote to DMK-INC.  Of course since the BJP was coming back to power at the center AIADMK most likely formed such an alliance knowing that it will be beaten in the LS elections but gains an ally at the federal level and instead invest all their resources toward winning the assembly by-elections

[jaichind]

In AP it is now YSRCP 25 TDP 0.  Another enemy of Modi, TDP's Naidu, bites the dust.

[jaichind]

UP vote share (fairly stable now)

BJP                  49.2%
SP-BSP-RLD     39.2%
INC                   6.1%

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis My India exit poll ended up being spot on.  What a good call they made.

[jaichind]

NDA    337(-15)
UPA      93(+28)
OTH    112(-13)

[jaichind]

Seems like best exit pollster is Today's Chanakya who was the best exit pollster in the 2014 LS election but then was off in several state assembly election and roundly mocked by me as hopelessly pro-BJP although I admitted that in BJP wave elections (like 2017 UP assembly election and now 2019 LS election) it is very accurate.

They have for 2019

BJP 300 ± 14 Seats                 
NDA 350 ± 14 Seats
Cong 55 ± 9 Seats                   
UPA 95 ± 9 Seats
Others 97 ± 11 Seats

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi concedes defeat in Amethi.  That is symbolic of the Modi wave in 2019.