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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 22700 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #675 on: May 24, 2019, 10:37:12 am »
« edited: May 24, 2019, 04:54:17 pm by jaichind »

Some more complex states

Punjab
                 Vote share                Seats
INC           40.6%(+7.4%)        8(+5)
SAD-BJP    37.5%(+2.4%)        4(-2)
AAP             7.5%(-17.0%)       1(-3)
BSP+        10.6% (+8.7%)        0

AAP have collapsed in Punjab.  AAP splinter PEP formed a BSP led from with BSP, PEP, CPI, LIP (SAD splinter), RMP (Leftist), and PF(AAP splinter.)    The AAP vote going in all directions help blunt the INC surge from 2014 and prevented an INC sweep.  AAP actually managed to hold on to a seat due to the personal appeal of one of its MPs and INC SAD splitting the anti-AAP vote.


Maharashtra
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP-SHS       51.3%(-0.5%)          41(-1)
INC-NCP+    35.5%(+0.5%)           6(--)
VBA-AIMIM    7.7%(+6.9%)           1(+1)
BSP              0.9% (-1.7%)            0

INC-NCP formed a larger coalition than in 2014.  INC-NCP got SWP to defect from BJP-SHS, retained BVA as an ally, got pro-NCP YSP to also join up, and got PWPI to stand down and back UPA.  An attempt to form an alliance with a Dalit-Muslim bloc BVA-AIMIM based on the old Dalit based RPI splinter BBM failed.  NCP also got NMS to stand down and de facto back UPA.  After all this UPA only fought BJP-SHS to a draw despite the BJP-SHS alliance being a last minute deal between frenemies BJP and SHS. Such is the power of the Modi wave that the net result was a draw relative to 2014.  AIMIM won a seat due to the Hindu vote split between INC SHS and SHS rebel allowing the Muslim vote to give AIMIM a shock victory.  
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #676 on: May 24, 2019, 10:44:14 am »

I think the difference comes from  Viduthalai and the Revolutionary socialist party which I countied as unaligned, but some sites count as UPA. As you say, this gets weird - some sites don't count JKNC as UPA others do. Some count the eastern tribal alliances as NDA, some don't.
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jaichind
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« Reply #677 on: May 24, 2019, 02:59:59 pm »

Tripura see the amazing continued collapse of the Left front.  Historically Tripura is about Left Front versus INC-INPT where INPT represents tribal as opposed the ever growing Bengali majority and BJP as a minor force.  But this has chanced a lot last couple of years.  The Left Front have been dominate in Tripura for decades.

2013 Tripura assembly election

                      Vote share      Seat
Left Front             52.4%         50

INC                     44.1%         10

BJP                       1.5%           0

Then in 2014 LS elections saw an anti-INC wave that shifted INC votes to Left Front, Bengali based AITC and BJP

2014 Tripura LS election

                      Vote share      Seat
Left Front             64.8%         2

INC                     15.4%          0

AITC                     9.7%          0                   
 
BJP                       5.8%           0

IPFT                     1.1%          0

With IPFT being an emerging rival force to represent tribals

After the BJP captured power at the center it began an effort to move into Tripura given is large Bengali Hindu population.  BJP formed an alliance with IPFT.  The INC could not found a counter to BJP and BJP aggressive campaign pulled in INC voters who were shifting to BJP to try to defeat the Left Front.  The result was a shock BJP-IPFT victory as the INC vote completely moved over to BJP.

2018 Tripura assembly election

                      Vote share      Seat
BJP-IPFT               50.9%        43

Left Front             45.4%         16

INC                       1.8%           0


After the BJP took over the state government it broke the Left Front election machine and took it over.  For 2019 LS elections BJP broke off its alliance with IPFT now that it is secure in its power and rolled over the opposition. 

2019 Tripura LS election

                      Vote share      Seat
BJP                      49.6%         2

INC                     25.6%          0

Left Front             17.5%         0

IPFT                     4.2%          0

Some of the INC vote that went over to BJP in 2018 assembly election came back now the mission of removing the Left Front government was complete.  But after breaking and taking over the Left Front Clientelist network plus the BJP control of federal subsidies a large part of Left Front vote when over to the BJP producing a convincing BJP victory.   

So in rapid secession we went from a dominate Left Front vs INC to a dominate BJP vs INC with the Left now continues to decline to irrelevance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #678 on: May 24, 2019, 04:52:30 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 08:53:26 am by jaichind »

Some more complex states

Assam
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP-AGP-BPF        47.2%         9
INC                     35.8%         3
AIUDF                   7.9%          1
ex-ULFA                 2.7%         1
UPP                       1.8%

Back in 2014 it was

                     Vote share     Seats
BJP-UPP              38.7%         7
INC                     29.9%        3 (tactical alliance with BPF)
BPF                     2.2%          0 (tactical alliance with INC)
AIUDF                15.0%         3
AGP+                  4.0%          0
ex-ULFA              4.3%           1

AIUDF choose to only run in 3 seats and tactically back INC in the rest.  This lead to a polarization around BJP-AGP-BPF and INC.  The ex-ULFA independent MP was elected defeating BPF and UPP


Jharkhand

                      Vote share     Seats
BJP-AJSU             56.0%        12
INC-JMM-JVM       32.6%          2 (had tactical alliance with RJD)
RJD                      2.4%           0 (had tactical alliance with INC-JMM-JVM)
AITC                    0.5%            0

Back in 2014 it was

                     Vote share     Seats
BJP                    40.7%         12
INC-JMM-RJD      24.6%          2
JVM                    12.3%          0
AJSU                    3.8%          0
AITC-JBSP            4.1%          0

JBSP since merged into INC since 2014.  The grand alliance of INC-JMM-JVM and RJD seems to have kept their 2014 vote with some small amount of losses  but the BJP-AJSU cleaned up all the remaining vote to repeat their 2014 landslide.  BJP was suppose to be weak with tribal but it seems the Modi wave carried them over that.


Bihar
                                  Vote share     Seats
BJP-JD(U)-LJP                54.3%        39
RJD-INC-RLSP-VIP-HAM  31.2%         1 (tactical alliance with CPM(ML)+)
CPM(ML)-CPI-CPM            2.2%         0 (tactical alliance with UPA)
BSP                                1.7%         0

Back in 2014 it was

                           Vote share     Seats
BJP-LJP-RLSP            39.4%       31
RJD-INC-NCP            30.2%         7
JD(U)-CPI                 17.2%         2
CPI(ML)                     1.3%         0
BSP                           2.2%         0

Since 2014 RLSP joined UPA as did JD(U) splinter HAM.  VIP which was pro-NDA joined UPA.  But JD(U) rejoined NDA and it seems the 2014 BJP and JD(U) vote was able to merge to utterly smashed the UPA.  The NDA vote share here is the largest of any bloc since the 1977 JNP landslide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #679 on: May 24, 2019, 07:00:52 pm »



For NDA the "Rest 4" are RJP in Rajasthan, NDPP in Nagaland, AJSU in Jharkhand, and pro-BJP independent (really an INC rebel) in Karnataka.

So this source decides to count JKN as UPA because it is a tactical ally. For UPA "Rest 5" are 1 KEC(M) in Kerala, 1 RSP in Kerala, 1 VCK in TN, 1 JMM in Jharkhand, 1 JD(S).  So this method choose to count the 2 CPM and 2 CPI seats won in TN as part of the UPA alliance ias NOT part of UPA.  It also choose to count the 1 NCP win in Lakshadweep over INC as part of UPA even though this seat was won by NCP by defeating INC.

Note there is an error.  This should be UPA 92.  Since 1 YSP which they have Independent 3 is really part of UPA in Maharashtra. 
 
Under Others, The Independents 3 which I explained above are Independents 2 are 1 INC rebel that won in Dadra & Nagar Haveli and 1 ex-ULFA incumbent MP in Assam that won re-election.

The Rest 16 are: 1 AAP in Punjab, 2 AIMIM (1 in Telangana and 1 in Maharashtra), 1 AIUDF in Assam, 2 CPI in TN, 3 CPM (2 in TN and 1 in Kerala), 1 MNF in Mizoram, 1 NPF in Manipur, 1 NPP in Meghalaya. 1 SKM in Sikkim, 3 TDP.

One thing that is funny about NPF is that NPF as Naga People Front did not run in Nagaland and instead backed INC to take on BJP ally and NPF splinter NDPP.  But NPF ran in Manipur and won Outer Manipur where there are significant Naga population.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #680 on: May 24, 2019, 07:35:07 pm »

How you count the Sears is always going to be different depending on perspective, it probably best to say the NDA has ~350, UPA ~90, and others ~100.

Also, is the leader of the opposition in India a meaningful title with privileges attached, or is it it just that, a title? Because if it affords the INC some privileges, it shouldn't be too hard to get 2 people to switch parties within the block or extend membership to some Indies...can it? Something naturally would have to go back in exchange of course, either officially or unofficially.
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jaichind
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« Reply #681 on: May 25, 2019, 06:15:40 am »

How you count the Sears is always going to be different depending on perspective, it probably best to say the NDA has ~350, UPA ~90, and others ~100.

Also, is the leader of the opposition in India a meaningful title with privileges attached, or is it it just that, a title? Because if it affords the INC some privileges, it shouldn't be too hard to get 2 people to switch parties within the block or extend membership to some Indies...can it? Something naturally would have to go back in exchange of course, either officially or unofficially.

LOP role is has rank equal to a member of the cabinet and would be involved in key decisions like appointments of CBI director and other key posts.  Part of it is about prestige but part of it is also getting a political stage.  If there is an INC revival I suspect INC will win enough by-elections to eventually get to 54 MPs for Rahul Gandhi to be LOP.  Due to anti-defection laws the way to increase INC's MP count would be party mergers or getting independents to join INC.  The INC rebel that won in Dadra & Nagar Haveli would be such a target but that is only 53.
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jaichind
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« Reply #682 on: May 25, 2019, 06:23:02 am »

We now have the maga state UP

UP
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP-AD(S)            51.2%         64
SP-BSP-RLD         39.2%         15
INC-JAP                 6.4%           1
PSP-PECP              0.3%           0
SBSP                    0.3%           0

Back in 2014 it was

                          Vote share     Seats
BJP-AD(S)                43.6%       73
SP                           22.4%         5
BSP                         19.8%         0
INC-RLD                    8.4%         2
QED-SBSP-JPS           0.6%         0
PECP                         0.6%         0

QED since merged into BSP.  SBSP allied with BJP in 2017 assembly elections but in the LS election split from NDA and ran separately.  The SP-BSP-RLD alliance mostly worked to merge the vote share but there was a swing toward the BJP from the alliance and INC.  Several key SP and INC strongholds led to the defeat of several key SP and INC leaders like Dimple Yadav and Rahul Gandhi.  SP splinter PSP was a total flop and merely split the SP vote leading to a defeat of the key SP stronghold.
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jaichind
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« Reply #683 on: May 25, 2019, 10:26:05 am »
« Edited: May 28, 2019, 07:46:22 am by jaichind »

Then we have some Southern States

Karnataka
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP+                  53.8%          26
INC-JD(S)           41.9%           2
UPP                     0.3%            0
SDPI                   0.1%            0

In 2014 it was
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP                     43.4%         17
INC                    41.2%           9
JD(S)-SDPI         11.2%           2

The BJP backed an INC rebel in one of the seats that INC gave to JD(S).  The INC-JD(S) alliance clearly did not work on ground plus the Modi wave have the BJP a landslide.


AP
                             Vote share     Seats
YSRCP                       49.9%         22
TDP                           40.2%          3
JSP-BSP-CPI-CPM         6.3%          0
INC                             1.3%          0
BJP                             1.1%          0

In 2014 it was

                      Vote share     Seats
TDP-BJP              48.0%        17 (backed by JSP)
YSRCP                45.7%          8
INC                      2.9%          0

A swing toward YSRCP lead to a large landslide in terms of seats.  JSP fell flat and failed to split the anti-TDP vote as TDP had hoped.  INC and BJP irrelevant for now.  


Telangana

                      Vote share     Seats
TRS                   41.7%           9
INC                    29.8%          3
BJP                    19.7%           4
JSP-BSP              0.7%           0
CPI-CPM              0.9%           0
AIMIM                 2.8%           1

In 2014 it was

                      Vote share     Seats
TRS                    35.0%        11
INC-CPI              25.7%         2
TDP-BJP              22.8%         2 (backed by JSP)
YSRCP                  4.5%         1
BSP                      1.2%         0
AIMIM                   3.5%        1

TDP has dropped out of Telangana and backed INC while YSRCP has dropped out of Telangana and backed TRS since 2014.  The INC and BJP performance was surprising as everyone had expected a TRS sweep.  It seems there were significant amount of anti-TRS tactical that helped both INC and BJP.  JSP which is more of a AP party was nowhere here.
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jaichind
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« Reply #684 on: May 25, 2019, 05:56:01 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2019, 07:22:28 pm by jaichind »

The we have the Deep South states

Kerala
                                       Vote share     Seats
INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP          47.5%         19
Left Front                            35.3%           1
BJP-BDJS-KEC(T)                 15.6%           0

In 2014 it was

                                            Vote share    Seats
INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP-SJD        42.5%         12
Left Front                                 41.6%           8
BJP-KEC(N)-RSP(B)                   10.9%           0

There had been an expectation of a BJP surged that would eat into both the INC led bloc as well as the Left Front.  In the end NDA merely matched the 2016 assembly election results of 15.0% and failed to win a seat while a swing toward the INC led to a near sweep for the INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP bloc.  INC did a good job of getting KEC(M) back into the alliance which merely added to the landslide.

TN
                                                                       Vote share    Seats
DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-MDMK-KMDK-IJK         53.3%       37
AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK-PT-TMC-PNK                       30.7%        1
AMMK-SDPI                                                             5.3%        0
MNM                                                                       3.8%        0
NTK                                                                        3.9%

Back in 2014 it was

                                                                       Vote share    Seats
AIADMK                                                                 44.9%      37
DMK-VCK-PT-MKK-IMUL                                           27.2%       0
BJP-DMDK-PMK-MDMK-PNK-KMDK-IJK                      18.8%       2
INC                                                                         4.4%       0
CPI-CPM                                                                  1.1%       0

Due to the toxic brand of the BJP the DMK led bloc swept to victory.  AIADMK splinter AMMK ended up with a lot less support than expected but its failure to cut into the AIADMK vote did not stop the DMK-INC bloc sweep given the direct swing away from the AIADMK-BJP bloc.  The new center-left MNM also did a bit worse than expected although Tamil nationalist NTK did fairly well.

Note that in TN the seat of Vellore where it is UPA's DMK vs NDA's PNK had the election halted due to the suspicion of vote buying.  The vote will be held later.

It is clear that in Kerala and TN there was a vote against Modi which produce massive landslides for the UPA in the Deep South.  Maybe Rahul Gandhi can try to run for the PM of Dravidia Nadu

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« Reply #685 on: May 25, 2019, 06:26:15 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 10:00:13 am by jaichind »

My computation of the all-India vote share are

NDA       45.35%
 BJP          37.77%
 SHS          2.08% (Maharashtra)
 JD(U)        1.47% (Bihar)
 AIADMK    1.23% (TN)
 SAD          0.62% (Punjab)
 LJP           0.53% (Bihar)
 PMK          0.38% (TN)
 AGP          0.24% (Assam)
 AD(S)       0.17% (UP)
 DMDK       0.15% (TN)
 Others      0.72%

UPA       27.09%
 INC         19.70%
 DMK         1.89% (TN)
 NCP          1.38% (Maharashtra)
 RJD          1.03% (Bihar)
 JD(S)       0.56% (Karnataka)
 JMM         0.31% (Jharkhand and Odisha)
 IMUL        0.26% (TN and Kerala)
 RLSP        0.24% (Bihar)
 CPI          0.18% (TN and Odisha)
 CPM         0.17% (TN and Odisha)
 VCK         0.17% (TN)
 HAM         0.16% (Bihar)
 Others      1.04%

For UPA do not count tactical allies like RJD in Jharkhand, CPI(ML) in Bihar, and JKN in J&K which adds up to 0.13% (CPI(ML) in Bihar 0.07% JKN in J&K 0.02% and RJD in Jharkhand 0.05%).  This means the sum of all UPA backed candidate vote share are 27.22%


BSP Bloc  6.97%  
 BSP          3.67%
 SP            2.57% (UP and MP)
 JSP           0.32% (AP and Telangana)
 RLD          0.26% (UP)
 Others      0.15% (includes CPI CPM when running with BSP in AP and Punjab)

AAP Bloc  0.54%
 AAP          0.44% (Punjab Haryana Delhi Goa, A&N, and Chandigarh)
 JJP           0.10% (Haryana)

AITC       4.11% (WB, Asasm, Jharkhand, and Tripura)
YSRCP    2.56% (AP)
Left        2.21% (CPI CPM CPI(ML) RSP AIFB not running with another front(like BSP or UPA))
TDP        2.06% (AP)
BJD        1.67% (Odisha)
TRS        1.27% (Telangana)
VBA        0.62% (Maharashtra)
AMMK     0.36% (TN and Pondicherry)
NTK        0.27% (TN and Pondicherry)
NMN       0.27% (TN and Pondicherry)
AIUDF    0.23% (Assam)
AIMIM    0.20% (Telangana Bihar and Maharastra)

Besides the obvious BJP surge, the Left and AAP vote has dropped a lot since 2014
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« Reply #686 on: May 26, 2019, 06:01:29 am »

Rahul Gandhi offers to step down as INC leader which was rejected by the CWC which is INC's highest body. But a couple of days later Rahul Gandhi insists on stepping down and seems to be supported by his mother Sonia and sister Priyanka.

In separate news new AP CM and YSRCP leader Jagan Reddy is looking to align with BJP after the elections where he captured the majority of Muslim Christian and Dalit votes.  The main motivation besides the need for federal funds is of course that right now TDP has taken a pro-INC position.  Of course YSRCP's condition would be special status (aka lots of extra money) for AP.  Not sure how BJP/Modi will respond but I think they are unlikely to give in on that demand. 
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« Reply #687 on: May 26, 2019, 06:19:06 am »

would Rahul be succeeded by Priyanka or will they give someone outside the dynasty a go?
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« Reply #688 on: May 26, 2019, 06:43:06 am »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 06:48:14 am by jaichind »

J&K results which because of vast differences in turnout between Jammu and Kashmir I broke up into Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh.

Kashmir
                 Vote share     Seats
JKN               37.1%          3  (tactical alliance with INC)
PDP               16.0%          0
INC                 9.0%          0 (tactical alliance with JKN)
BJP                 3.0%          0
JKNPP             0.7%          0 (Muslim Leftist-Progressive)
JKPC             17.7%          0 (Separatists)
AIP               13.5%          0 (Lean Separatism)

In 2014 it was
                 Vote share     Seats
PDP              46.9%          3
JKN              34.9%          0 (backed by INC)
INC rebel       1.4%           0
BJP               1.4%           0
JKNPP           0.8%           0
JKPC             6.3%           0
AIP               1.9%           0
BSP              0.6%           0

Clear move away from PDP given the now failed PDP-BJP alliance after the 2014 assembly election.  Also a clear shift toward radicalization with a large vote share for separatists parties while JKN is clearly in a strong position.


Ladakh
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP               34.2%           1
INC               16.9%           0
ISK               25.5%           0  (Muslim based and backed by both PDP and JKN)
INC rebel      23.4%            0  (Muslim)

Back in 2014 it was
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP               26.6%           1
INC               22.6%           0 (backed by JKN)
ISK               24.2%           0  (Muslim based and backed by PDP)
INC rebel      26.6%            0  (Muslim)

Despite the Buddhist BJP incumbent MP breaking with BJP and retiring from politics the BJP was able to consolidate the Buddhist-Hindu vote to win beating the divided Mulsim field.


Jammu
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 59.7%          2
DSSP               1.0%           0  (BJP splinter)
INC                34.8%           0  (backed by both JKN and PDP)
JKNPP              1.1%           0
BSP                 1.2%           0

Back in 2014 it was
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 48.6%          2
INC                 34.6%          0 (backed by JKN)
PDP                   8.7%         0
JKNPP               1.5%          0
BSP                  2.1%          0

Just like the rest of Hindi Hindu majority states there was a large swing toward the BJP with significant Hindu consolidation for the BJP.

What would be interesting would be what takes place in assembly elections that will most likely take place later this year.  Going by these results as JKN-INC alliance should be able to win a majority by sweeping Kashmir, fighting BJP to a draw in  Ladakh, and while BJP will sweep Jammu the Muslim pocket districts in Jammu will go JKN-INC.  I suspect the separatist vote will decline in Kashmir as turnout rises since turnout for LS polls for Kashmir has been low for a while but the turnout for assembly elections are significantly higher.
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« Reply #689 on: May 26, 2019, 06:46:19 am »

would Rahul be succeeded by Priyanka or will they give someone outside the dynasty a go?

I think in the end Rahul Gandhi will stay but will move out key leaders to consolidate his power so he has more of a free hand to change strategy.  Yes, if Rahul is out then the main pressure will be for Priyanka  to take over although I do not see the point.  Rahul going would be saying that the Gandhi dynasty has failed and could not lead INC to a revival.  If so Priyanka is also from the Gandhi dynasty as well so there is no point putting her in charge.
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« Reply #690 on: May 26, 2019, 07:36:09 am »

Nearly 50 per cent MPs in new Lok Sabha have criminal records

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/50-per-cent-mps-new-lok-sabha-criminal-records-1534465-2019-05-25

Quote
Out of the 539 winners analysed in Lok Sabha election 2019, 233 MPs have declared criminal cases against themselves

It seems 159 has serious criminal case (rape, murder, terrorism etc etc)


300 out of 542 winners are first time MPs.  The BJP aggressively swap out a good number of its candidates leading to this large number.
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« Reply #691 on: May 26, 2019, 10:24:19 am »

Number of criminal MPs increasing over time. Same with those with serious cases (murder rape etc etc)
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« Reply #692 on: May 26, 2019, 12:54:12 pm »

What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy

On paper it would be a solid majority for NDA.  I still feel Modi being out and having someone else from the BJP as PM would be better.  This demonetization was a disaster and all this fake economic data scandals all seems to be ways to cover up the impact of demonetization which continues to today.  An alternative would be a solid majority for UPA although while I do think Rahul Gandhi have matured as a campaigner this election cycle I think it would be a mistake to make him PM this election cycle.  

What do you think of the likelihood of Modi going through with these reforms now that he has won such a huge mandate?

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« Reply #693 on: May 27, 2019, 03:13:02 am »

Is there a single other political party in the world which is so resistant to having their leader resign after he leads them to two of their worst performances ever? I just don't understand the INC's strategy moving forward beyond just hoping that Modi eventually trips up.
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« Reply #694 on: May 27, 2019, 04:53:44 am »

What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy

On paper it would be a solid majority for NDA.  I still feel Modi being out and having someone else from the BJP as PM would be better.  This demonetization was a disaster and all this fake economic data scandals all seems to be ways to cover up the impact of demonetization which continues to today.  An alternative would be a solid majority for UPA although while I do think Rahul Gandhi have matured as a campaigner this election cycle I think it would be a mistake to make him PM this election cycle.  

What do you think of the likelihood of Modi going through with these reforms now that he has won such a huge mandate?



I doubt it.  I think from the grassroots point of view "Reforms" are not things listed in that link.  That list would be what investment community want.  Reforms from the grassroots are really development like electrification and toilets.   I suspect that NDA would end up focusing on those than neo-liberal reforms that I would be for.
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« Reply #695 on: May 27, 2019, 04:56:49 am »

Is there a single other political party in the world which is so resistant to having their leader resign after he leads them to two of their worst performances ever? I just don't understand the INC's strategy moving forward beyond just hoping that Modi eventually trips up.

Just to be fair. In 2014 Rahul Gandhi was not the President of INC.  He only took place in late 2017.  Despite the results his performance in the LS elections was fairly credible when compared to his performance as a campaigner in 2014.  Main issue of removing him is that without the Gandhi clan the INC would just devolve into various state level local parties.  Perhaps that might be the right way forward as NCP is now stronger than INC in Maharashtra, YSRCP is very strong in AP and AITC despite the BJP surge is fairly strong in WB.  Still for anyone that wanted a national party like INC to exist there might be no alternative to Gandhi clan. 
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« Reply #696 on: May 27, 2019, 05:11:19 am »

Bloomberg quint had their post-election analysis of UP and came up with vote share based on community





Which puts the vote share by community at
                                     
                                      NDA                SP-BSP-RLD                  INC
                             2014          2019    2014          2019       2014        2019
Upper Caste              77            85         7               10           9             5
Jat                           77            55       13               30           10            5
Non-Yadav OBC         60            75       25               15            8            5
Yadav                       27            20       60               70            8            5
Jatav                        15            20       75               10           2             5
Non-Jatav Dalit          45            60      40               25            4            5
Muslim                      10           10       76               75          11          10
Total                         43            50      43               39            8            6

So BJP won the battle for the Non-Yadav OBC and Non-Jatav Dalit vote and won the election.  One thing about this analysis that seems off are the Muslim vote.  In 2014 this analysis has the 3 main blocs with 97% of the Muslim vote and in 2019 95% of the Muslim vote.  That seems off.  In 2014 Muslim parties like PECP and RUC won around 0.7% of the vote or around 7% of the Muslim vote.  In 2019 RUC did not run and PECP could not even get to 0.1% of the vote.  So the Muslim vote is much more concentrated in 2019 than 2014.  This analysis seems to show the opposite which is clearly wrong.  Still the marco picture is clear: INC failed in its battle to capture the Upper Caste vote (which is the whole point of running separately), SP failed in its battle to capture to non-Yadav OBC vote and BSP and INC failed in its battle to capture the non-Jatav Dalits. 
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« Reply #697 on: May 27, 2019, 05:28:19 am »

2019 Odisha assembly election

                                     Vote share            Seats
BJD                                    45.2%               112
BJP                                    32.8%                23
INC-JMM-CPI-CPM               17.2%                10
INC rebel                                                       1
BSP                                    0.8%                   0

BJP gained a lot in vote share but not much in seats relative to 2014.  INC lost a lot of vote share but did not lose that much in terms of seats relative to 2014.

election not held in 1 seat due to death of BJD candidate.  See for background

https://www.outlookindia.com/blog/story/india-news-naveen-patnaik-exposed-why-odisha-cm-fielded-an-82-year-old-icu-patie/4080

Is a very interesting story of political battle in Odisha between two rivals.  It involves Biju Patnaik who was the leader of JD in Odisha which was the main rival to INC in the 1970s to 1990s.
  

After Biju Patnaik passed away his son Naveen Patnaik split the JD and formed BJD and formed an alliance with BJP


A key Biju Patnaik lieutenant which helped Naveen Patnaik from BJD was Bijoy Mohapatra who as a result had great influence within BJD and worked with Naveen Patnaik win the LS elections in 1998 and 1999 with their alliance with BJP over INC.   Bijoy Mohapatra had been an MLA from Patkura since 1980 and had already won in 1980 1985 1990 and 1995.


By 2000 it was clear that BJD-BJP was poised to win the Odisha assembly election.  Bijoy Mohapatra was the head of the BJD political committee in charge of handing out tickets.  But on the day when the deadline Naveen Patnaik who decided that he did not want to share power with Bijoy Mohapatra expelled him from the party and invalided his BJD ticket.  It was too late for Bijoy Mohapatra to file as an independent Patkura.  Instead he backed a AITC candidate Trilochan Behera who was a tribal leader and shifted his local base over to him.  Trilochan Behera went on to win with Bijoy Mohapatra's support.  But  Naveen Patnaik had another card to play.  After the elections when BJD-BJP came to power with Naveen Patnaik as CM he was able to, using his resource as the CM, to get Trilochan Behera to defect over to BJD and removing a political proxy for Bijoy Mohapatra.  

The main goal for Naveen Patnaik  going forward is to deny Bijoy Mohapatra to get elected as a MLA since given the connections that Bijoy Mohapatra had with various BJD MLAs he could make a lot of trouble for  Naveen Patnaik.  Bijoy Mohapatra went on to form OGP and formed an alliance with INC in 2004 and was narrowly defeated in Patkura by the BJD with Naveen Patnaik  throwing in vast resources to the district to ensure his defeat.

For the 2009 assembly elections Bijoy Mohapatra had merged his OGP with NCP but with BJD-BJP alliance breaking up the NCP choose to form an alliance with BJD.  In anger Bijoy Mohapatra joined BJP and ran again in Patkura but was defeated given the negative sentiment against the BJP in Odisha.

For 2014 Bijoy Mohapatra switched over to Mahakalapada to run as the BJP candidate and was again defeated as while the BJP support rose it was still a BJD landslide year.

For 2019 Bijoy Mohapatra switched back to Patkura run for BJP.   Naveen Patnaik insisted on nominating the 82 year BJD incumbent  Bed Prakash Agrawalla who was gravely ill.  The Agrawalla family begged Naveen Patnaik to not insist on Bed Prakash Agrawalla and suggested that his wife or son run instead.  Naveen Patnaik refused which confused many.  Bed Prakash Agrawalla was so ill that it took lot of effort for him to even file his papers and it would be impossible for him to campaign.  

Naveen Patnaik's strategy became clear Bed Prakash Agrawalla passed away a few days ago.  Due to the death of the a candidate the election for Patkura was halted until the BJD can come up with another candidate and the election will be held months after the assembly election.  It is now clear that given the fact that the BJP is much stronger in 2019 than in 2014 that Naveen Patnaik did not feel confident that he can keep Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  So with a ploy of a candidate on his deathbed followed by a death during the election he was able to stop Bijoy Mohapatra from getting into the Odisha assembly.  Naveen Patnaik's plan must be, win the 2019 assembly election, most likely narrowly, and then when the Patkura election takes place month later he can use the honeymoon period of his renewed mandate and all to resources of the state government to throw into the election to stop  Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  What a ploy.  Genius.


Back in 2014 assembly the result was

2014 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          147                10            26.04%

INC rebel                         1              2.25%

AOP            76                 0              1.03%

BJD          147              117            43.91%
 
BJD rebel                         1              0.87%

SKD           51                  1              0.41% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP           147               16            18.22%
 
SAMO        44                  1              0.90% (CPM was part of CPI+)
  
JMM           13                 0              1.04%

BSP          113                 0              0.87%

AAP          106                 0              0.61%

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« Reply #698 on: May 27, 2019, 08:46:28 am »

Tiny (population wise)  Northeast Arunachal Pradesh had assembly elections in addition to LS elections

Arunachal Pradesh LS elections

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 60.0%         2 (backed by JD(U))
INC                 21.1%         0
INC rebel           1.8%        0
JD(S)                9.1%         0
NPP                  4.2%         0 (pro-BJP NCP splinter, on and off ally of BJP in the Northeast)
PPA                  4.3%         0  (INC splinter but pro-BJP)

Back in 2014 it was

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                46.6%          1
INC                41.7%          1
PPA                  8.0%          0
AITC                1.5%          0
NCP                 1.0%          0


Arunachal Pradesh assembly elections

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 51.4%       41
INC                 17.0%        4 (tactical alliance with NPP)
INC rebel                           1
NPP                14.7%         5 (tactical alliance with INC)
JD(U)              10.0%         7
JD(S)                2.2%         0
PPA                  1.7%         1
PPA rebel                           1

Back in 2014 INC actually swept the assembly elections but then the entire INC party in 2016 defected to PPA and then most of the MLAs defected to BJP for the BJP to form the government.  So in many ways the 2019 BJP at the state level is really the 2014 INC at the state level. 

Just like Odisha we see the BJP doing better in the LS elections than assembly held at the same time but part of that has to do with the JD(U) which backed the BJP in the LS election but ran separately in the assembly elections.
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« Reply #699 on: May 27, 2019, 11:05:20 am »



As you can see, Congress managed to squeak out a late gain: the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
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