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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 22300 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #700 on: May 27, 2019, 03:13:41 pm »

"Congress in disarray as Rahul insists on stepping down"

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/congress-in-disarray-as-rahul-insists-on-stepping-down/article27268440.ece

It seems Rahul Gandhi is pretty adamant on stepping down.  There are already rumors that the INC's CWC (Congress Working Committee) seeing Rahul Gandhi's insistence is starting a search for a new leader.   
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #701 on: May 27, 2019, 06:26:09 pm »

Complete list of gains and losses, by party and constituency.

DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Arakkonam
Tamil Nadu, Arani
Tamil Nadu, Chennai Central
Tamil Nadu, Chennai North
Tamil Nadu, Chennai South
Tamil Nadu, Cuddalore
Tamil Nadu, Dindigul
Tamil Nadu, Erode
Tamil Nadu, Kallakurichi
Tamil Nadu, Kancheepuram
Tamil Nadu, Mayiladuthurai
Tamil Nadu, Namakkal
Tamil Nadu, Nilgiris
Tamil Nadu, Perambalur
Tamil Nadu, Pollachi
Tamil Nadu, Salem
Tamil Nadu, Sriperumbudur
Tamil Nadu, Tenkasi
Tamil Nadu, Thanjavur
Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi
Tamil Nadu, Tirunelveli
Tamil Nadu, Tiruvannamalai
Tamil Nadu, Viluppuram

BJP gain from INC

Arunachal Pradesh, Arunachal East
Assam, Autonomous District
Assam, Silchar
Chhattisgarh, Durg
Haryana, Rohtak
Karnataka, Chikkballapur
Karnataka, Chikkodi
Karnataka, Chitadurga
Karnataka, Gulbarga
Karnataka, Kolar
Karnataka, Raichur
Karnataka, Tumkur
Madhya Pradesh, Guna
Maharashtra, Nanded
Manipur, Inner Manipur
Uttar Pradesh, Amethi
West Bengal, Maldaha Uttar

BJP gain from AITC

West Bengal, Alipurduars
West Bengal, Balurghat
West Bengal, Bangaon
West Bengal, Bankura
West Bengal, Barrackpore
West Bengal, Bishnupur
West Bengal, Burdwandurgapur
West Bengal, Cooch Behar
West Bengal, Hooghly
West Bengal, Jalpaiguri
West Bengal, Jhargram
West Bengal, Medinipur
West Bengal, Purulia
West Bengal, Ranaghat

YSRC gain from TDP

Andhra Pradesh, Amalapuram
Andhra Pradesh, Anakapalli
Andhra Pradesh, Anatapur
Andhra Pradesh, Bapatla
Andhra Pradesh, Chittoor
Andhra Pradesh, Eluru
Andhra Pradesh, Hindupur
Andhra Pradesh, Kakinada
Andhra Pradesh, Machilipatnam
Andhra Pradesh, Narasaraopet
Andhra Pradesh, Rajahmundry
Andhra Pradesh, Vizianagaram

BSP gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Ambedkar Nagar
Uttar Pradesh, Amroha
Uttar Pradesh, Bijnor
Uttar Pradesh, Ghazipur
Uttar Pradesh, Ghosi
Uttar Pradesh, Jaunpur
Uttar Pradesh, Nagina
Uttar Pradesh, Saharanpur
Uttar Pradesh, Shrawasti

INC gain from BJP

Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Assam, Nowgong
Chhattisgarh, Bastar
Chhattisgarh, Korba
Goa, South Goa
Jharkhand, Singhbhum
Maharashtra, Chandrapur
Tamil Nadu, Kanniyakumari

BJP gain from BJD

Odisha, Balasore
Odisha, Bargarh
Odisha, Bhubaneswar
Odisha, Bolangir
Odisha, Kalahandi
Odisha, Mayurbhanj
Odisha, Sambalpur

INC gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Karur
Tamil Nadu, Krishnagiri
Tamil Nadu, Sivaganga
Tamil Nadu, Thiruvallur
Tamil Nadu, Tiruchirappalli
Tamil Nadu, Virudhunagar

JD (U) gain from BJP

Bihar, Gaya
Bihar, Gopalganj
Bihar, Jhanjharpur
Bihar, Siwan
Bihar, Valmiki Nagar

INC gain from CPI (M)

Kerala, Alathur
Kerala, Attingal
Kerala, Kannur
Kerala, Kasaragod
Kerala, Palakkad

BJP gain from CPI (M)

Tripura, Tripura East
Tripura, Tripura West
West Bengal, Raiganj

BJP gain from SP

Uttar Pradesh, Badaun
Uttar Pradesh, Firozabad
Uttar Pradesh, Kannauj

BJP gain from TRS

Telangana, Adilabad
Telangana, Karimnagar
Telangana, Nizamabad

INC gain from AAP

Punjab, Faridkot
Punjab, Fatehgarh Sahib
Punjab, Patiala

JD (U) gain from RJD

Bihar, Banka
Bihar, Bhagalpur
Bihar, Madhepura

JD (U) gain from RLSP

Bihar, Jahanabad
Bihar, Karakat
Bihar, Sitamarhi

JKNC gain from PDP

Jammu and Kashmir, Anantnag
Jammu and Kashmir, Baramulla
Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar

SP gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Mordabad
Uttar Pradesh, Rampur
Uttar Pradesh, Sambhal

CPI gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Nagapattinam
Tamil Nadu, Tiruppur

CPI (M) gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore
Tamil Nadu, Madurai

BJP gain from INLD

Haryana, Hisar
Haryana, Sirsa

INC gain from Independent

Kerala, Chalakudy
Kerala, Idukki

INC gain from SAD

Punjab, Anandpur Sahib
Punjab, Khadoor Sahib

NCP gain from SS

Maharashtra, Raigad
Maharashtra, Shirur

YSRC gain from BJP

Andhra Pradesh, Narsapuram
Andhra Pradesh, Visakhapatnam

AD gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Robertsganj

AITC gain from CPI (M)

West Bengal, Murshidabad

AITC gain from INC

West Bengal, Jangipur

AIM-e-IM gain from SS

Maharashtra, Aurangabad

AJSU gain from BJP

Jharkhand, Giridih

BJP gain from AD

Uttar Pradesh, Pratapgarh

BJP gain from AIUDF

Assam, Karimganj

BJP gain from JMM

Jharkhand, Dumka

BJP gain from RJD

Bihar, Araria

BJP gain from NCP

Maharashtra, Madha

CPI (M) gain from INC

Kerala, Alappuzha

DMK gain from PMK

Tamil Nadu, Dharmapuri

Independent gain from BJP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

Independent gain from JD (S)

Karnataka, Mandya

Independent gain from SS

Maharashtra, Amravati

INC gain from AINRC

Puducherry

INC gain from AIUDF

Assam, Barpeta

INC gain from BJD

Odisha, Koraput

INC gain from CPI

Kerala, Thrissur

INC gain from TDP

Telangana, Malkajgiri

INC gain from TRS

Telangana, Bhongir

IUML gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Ramanathapuram

JD (U) gain from INC

Bihar, Supaul

JD (U) gain from LJSP

Bihar, Munger

JD (U) gain from NCP

Bihar, Katihar

LJSP gain from BJP

Bihar, Nawada

NDPP gain from NPC

Nagaland

NPF gain from INC

Manipur, Outer Manipur

MNF gain from INC

Mizoram

RLP gain from BJP

Rajasthan, Nagaur

SKK gain from SDF

Sikkim

SS gain from BJP

Maharashtra, Palghar

SS gain from INC

Maharashtra, Hingoli

SS gain from NCP

Maharashtra, Kolhapur

SS gain from SwP

Maharashtra, Hatkanangle

TRS gain from INC

Telangana, Nagarkurnool

TRS gain from YSRC

Telangana, Khammam

VCK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Chidambaram
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jaichind
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« Reply #702 on: May 27, 2019, 06:42:24 pm »

Back to my topic of key role of languages.  

2014 BJP surge was a Hindi one
 


2019 was one an Indo-Aryan one




NDA/BJP performance by state type (Hindi, Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Dravidian, Sino-Tibetian) where I count Kannada as Indo-Aryan vs Dravidian given its level of  Sanskritisation

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  56.9%  60.4%  61.8%  37.8%  39.6%  89.3%  90.2%
Indo-Aryan   18.0%  28.2%  42.2%  47.6%  44.2%  33.5%  53.4%  68.0%
Sino-Tibetian  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  22.2%  66.7%  22.2%  44.4%  66.7%
Dravidian       1.0%    0.0%  33.3%  60.2%    6.8%    0.0%  21.4%    4.9%
Total            23.1%  34.3%  47.3%  55.4%  34.8%  29.5%  62.1%   65.2%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  52.4%  54.2%  49.8%  34.7%  28.0%  84.4%  78.7%
Indo-Aryan   16.0%  20.9%  25.7%  28.6%  28.2%  25.7%  42.2%  57.8%
Sino-Tibetian  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%   0.0%   22.2%   0.0%  11.1%  33.3%
Dravidian       1.0%    0.0%    6.8%  10.7%    0.0%   0.0%    3.9%   3.9%
Total            22.3%  29.7%  33.5%  33.5%  25.4%  21.4%  51.9%  55.8%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             0.0%    4.4%    6.2%   12.0%    3.1%   11.6%   4.9%  11.6%
Indo-Aryan    2.0%    7.3%   16.5%  18.9%   16.0%    7.8%  11.2%  10.2%
Sino-Tibetian 0.0%    0.0%     0.0%   22.2%  44.4%   22.2%  33.3% 33.3%
Dravidian      0.0%    0.0%   26.2%   49.5%    6.8%     0.9%  17.5%  1.0%
Total             0.7%    4.6%   13.8%   21.9%    9.4%     8.1%  10.1%  9.4%

The BJP maintained its massive lead in Hindi speaking states by forming an alliance with JD(U) in Bihar but the real surge came in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.  The NDA also went up in the Sino-Tibetian speaking Northeast states.  In Dravidian states the NDA/BJP went nowhere and the loss of TDP alliance meant that NDA is now looks like the NDA in 2004 and 2009 in  Dravidian states.

The main reasons why the BJP Hindi Sanskritisation cultural assimilation program had worked in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas but not in Dravidian areas is mostly because Dravidian languages have their own literary tradition just like Indian Muslims have a Persian influenced independent Urdu  literary tradition.  Having such a tradition tends to make a population more resilient to cultural assimilation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #703 on: May 27, 2019, 08:38:00 pm »

Some addition color

INC gain from Independent

Kerala, Chalakudy
Kerala, Idukki
This is really INC gain from pro-CPM independents with both are part of Left Front.


Independent gain from BJP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli
This is really an INC rebel and ex-MP


Independent gain from JD (S)

Karnataka, Mandya
This is really an INC rebel running with BJP support


Independent gain from SS

Maharashtra, Amravati
This independent is really YSP which is a NCP splinter that still have good relations with UPA and was running as the UPA candidate here.


DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Viluppuram
This is really VCK gain from AIADMK.  The VCK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.


DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Erode
This is really MDMK gain from AIADMK.  The MDMK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.


DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Namakkal
This is really KMDK gain from AIADMK.  The KMDK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.


DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Perambalur
This is really IJK gain from AIADMK.  The IJK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.
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Ishan
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« Reply #704 on: May 27, 2019, 09:02:54 pm »

What about Gandhi's sister for leader.
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jaichind
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« Reply #705 on: May 28, 2019, 06:40:56 am »

What about Gandhi's sister for leader.

Not sure that works.  It would still give the INC the stain of dynasty.  I personally think INC is still better off with Rahul Gandhi as leader given how he has grown since 2014.  But if he had to go I would say INC CM of Punjab Amarinder Singh would be a good person to lead INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #706 on: May 28, 2019, 07:03:41 am »

I been looking over the election result seat by seat I noticed something which would also help explain the size of the BJP victory.  Usually around 6%-10% of the vote on average (depending on the state) would go to micro-candidates which are tiny parties and irreverent independents.  This time around that vote share fell drastically to be around 2%-3% pretty much everywhere with the exception of Bihar and partly Jharkhand where there was some drop but not dramatic.

I think this is a sign that the TINA factor is at play.  Most of this drop, it seems, went to BJP/NDA as well as a swing in many places away from INC/NDA and/or other opposition forces most likely due to fear that there will be chaos at the national level of the NDA does not get a majority.

If you look at the results, parties that was clearly interested in state level politics and would be open to supporting the winning side to form a stable government (YSRCP and BJD) did well and beat back the BJP wave.  Parties that clearly had national aspirations (BSP backed by SP, AITC, TDP, TRS) did poorly. 

In fact this picture of JD(S) CM Kumaraswamy swearing in ceremony in May 2018 which I thought represented a threat to Modi ended being the very thing that help BJP win a landslide.  This picture have the impression that the alternative to Modi is choas led by a 20+ headed monster with a different PM and DPM every other day.  This picture had in in several PM, DPM, puppetmaster aspirants (Rahul Gandhi, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Deve Gowda, Sharad Pawar,  Chandrababu Naidu etc etc)


So while my model of 2019 was 2004 where it was going to be a series of state level elections, a better model seems to be 1980 and 2009.  In 1980 Indira led INC won a surprising large majority over JNP and JNP(S)-INC(U) blocs.  The main reason for such a large victory was that while it was not clear that INC would be able to win a majority and form a stable government, her party was the only one with such prospects.  As a result most of the floating vote went to INC to produce a stable majority.  In 2009 it also seemed like the result will be a fractured result but it was clear that NDA was not in a position to win a majority while UPA was.  So the floating vote went to UPA, especially in urban areas, giving it a near majority and easy majority with parties that are pro-UPA.   In 2019 it was clear, in retrospect, that the NDA was headed to a majority, but the prospect that it might not and that NDA was the only formation that can get to a majority lead the floating vote to give NDA a landslide, just like Indira Gandhi's INC did in 1980.   This dynamic seems especially true for women voters which in the end clearly broke for NDA.

So what does this mean for INC for 2024.  It seems that no matter what INC has to form pre-election alliance with various anti-BJP parties by, if necessary, being generous with seat distribution BUT only on the condition that the said anti-BJP regional party will support Rahul Gandhi (assuming he is still the leader) for PM post election.  This approach of multiple PM candidates vague opposition tactical alliances only plays into the BJP hands in terms of paining the election as Modi vs chaos.
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jaichind
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« Reply #707 on: May 28, 2019, 07:20:08 am »

With a total wipe-out for RJD in Bihar there seems to be open rebellion within RJD to overthrow the power of the Lalu Yadav clan within the party.  RJD is currently led by Lalu Yadav's younger son Tejashwi Yadav.  Infighting between Tejashwi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav played a role in the defeat of RJD.  Key RJD leaders are indicating that this family feud and perception that the RJD is the party of Yadav has hurt their election chances and that a non-Yadav should take over as the head of RJD.  If the RJD does end up falling apart then the party that gains would be INC which pick up a lot of the Muslim and even Yadav support that went to RJD and would not vote BJP-JD(U).
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jaichind
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« Reply #708 on: May 28, 2019, 07:28:57 am »

One comical character in all this is Bihar HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi,  He managed to be on the losing side for all 3 Bihar elections in a row (2014 2015 2019.)  In 2014 he was part of JD(U) which was driven the third place in a 3 way battle between BJP-LJP-RLSP vs RJD-INC vs JD(U)-CPI.  In 2015 he formed HAM and allied with BJP which was beaten by the grand alliance of RJD-JD(U)-INC.  For 2019 HAM jumped ship again to join up with RJD-INC-RLSP-VIP but was defeated again.  Every significant party has been on the winning and losing slide at least over of the the last 3 elections (2014 2015 2019).  Only Jitan Ram Manjhi found a way to be on the losing side for all three.
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jaichind
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« Reply #709 on: May 28, 2019, 07:55:04 am »

While many point to BJP's 4 seats in Telangana with 19.7% of the vote as unprecedented and a precursor to a BJP surge there in the future, I am not so sure.  Back in 1991 BJP won 1 seat on its own with around a 18% vote share in a highly charged Hindu-Muslim polarization environment in urban Telangana.  Over time that BJP surge subsided.   The same could take place again once Modi moves off the scene.  It is not clear to me that BJP will overtake INC as the main opponent to TRS here.       

Between 1989 to 1991 there was significant political realignment due to the rise of Dalit based BSP and polarization of the Upper Caste vote toward BJP due to the Ram temple issue.  Both trends hurt INC.  1991 LS elections were called after JD split and BJP withdrew support to the JD over the Ram Temple issue and quotas for OBC.  The BJP was headed to a strong performance to push INC to second place when the Rajiv Gandhi assassination took place and the sympathy wave brought INC back to power nationally.  In AP/Telangana BJP broke from the TDP bloc and ate into both the INC and TDP+ vote share.  Since part of the election here were held after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination the result in AP/Telangana in the LS election was a slight edge for INC.

1991 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                15             50.06%

TDP+        26                11             42.18% (ICS was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       0               0.52%

BJP          25                  0               4.61%


1991 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16               10              38.06%

TDP+        16                 4              31.09% (CPM CPI JD were part of TDP+)

CPM rebel                      0                1.11%

BJP           16                1              17.98%

AIMIM        1                 1               4.75%

The BJP surge really came in Telangana where the old BJS was always strong due to polarization around AIMIM and Hyderabad Muslims and would have been even bigger if it was not for the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.    At the national level INC was able to come back to power with a near absolute majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #710 on: May 29, 2019, 08:40:18 am »

Back on the topic of NDA/BJP performance in states grouped by languages. I also computed vote share in the 1991-2019 period by such groups.

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%   37.1%  40.7%  42.8%  34.7%  31.8%  46.4%  55.3%
Indo-Aryan    22.0%   21.7%  39.9%  41.1%  38.4%  28.0%  37.5%  48.1%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%   13.2%  10.1%  18.5%   7.2%   31.2%  29.0%
Dravidian        5.5%    4.7%   27.0%  40.3%  33.5%   3.9%   26.2%  17.9%
Total            20.9%   23.9%   37.5%  41.3%   35.8% 24.1%  38.9%   45.4%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%  32.1%   35.7%  34.1%  30.1%  25.9%  44.2%  49.6%
Indo-Aryan    19.9%  17.6%   22.2%  23.1%  22.4%  20.4%  29.9%  39.8%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%    9.0%    5.6%   13.2%   7.2%  11.4%  19.8%
Dravdian         5.4%    4.6%   12.1%   8.2%    7.7%    3.7%    6.9%    7.2%
Total             20.1%  20.3%   25.6%  24.0%  22.3%  18.7%  31.1%  37.6%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi              0.0%    5.0%    5.0%    8.7%    4.6%   6.0%    2.2%   5.7%
Indo-Aryan     2.1%    4.1%   17.7%  18.1%  16.0%   7.7%    7.6%   8.4%
Sino-Tibetian   0.0%   0.0%     4.2%    4.5%    5.3%   0.0%  19.8%   9.2%
Dravidain        0.0%   0.1%   15.0%   32.2%  25.8%   0.2%  19.3% 10.7%
Total              0.8%    3.6%   11.8%   17.3%  13.5%   5.4%   7.8%    7.7%

Some main takeaways
1) BJP core strength in the 1990s was in the Hindi areas but had a solid based of around 20% in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas where they were able to leverage that base to gain allies in 1996-2004.
2) BJP always weak in Dravidian area and only did well in the 1998-1999 period due to its ability to gain allies (AIADMK/DMK and NTRTDP/TDP).  The 1998 BJP vote share in Dravidian states in 1998 is artificially high as BJP ally in undivided AP, NTRTDP, let BJP run in most LS seats with their support as NTRTDP was focused on winning power at the state assembly level.
3) After 2004 defeat BJP lost a lot of allies which drove down its vote share across the board as it became not viable in many states in 2009
4) The 2014 surge was mostly in Hindi areas and to some extent non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while regaining some allies in Dravidian areas (PMK/DMDK/MDMK and TDP)
5) The 2019 surge was mostly in Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while gaining some more in Hindi areas but the gains are mostly due to new allies (JD(U) in Bihar and AJSU in Jharkhand) while in Dravidian areas the BJP brand lost it allies (TDP) or dragged down the performance of new allies (AIADMK)
6) As of 2019 the BJP is truely a Hindu Indo-Aryan party that dominates that region with the help of allies.
7) The INC position in 2019 is not that dire.  In 2019 INC won 19.7% of the vote with UPA winning 27.1% of the vote.  Both numbers are higher than BJP (18.7%) and NDA (24.1%) respectively in 2009.   In many ways 2019 wiped out a lot of rivals of INC for the main opponent to the BJP. If and when BJP declines the INC is expected to gain once it can survive the current crisis of leadership.
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« Reply #711 on: May 29, 2019, 06:28:02 pm »


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« Reply #712 on: May 29, 2019, 08:20:05 pm »

CSDS post-election poll by age.  BJP have a slight relative advantage with the youth vis-a-vis INC and vice versa with older voters.

Age groups        Congress (%)   Congress allies (%)       BJP (%)   BJP allies (%)    Other parties (%)
18-22 yrs              20 (+3)               5 (+3)                   41 (+4)        7 (0)                 28 (-7)
23-27 yrs              18 (-2)                6 (+3)                   40 (+8)        7 (0)                 29 (-8)
28-35 yrs             19 (0)                 7 (+4)                   39 (+6)        7 (0)                 28 (-8)
36-45 yrs             20 (2)                 7 (+4)                   37 (+7)        7 (0)                 29 (-11)
46-55 yrs             20 (0)                 8 (+5)                   36 (+6)        7 (1)                 29 (-10)
56 yrs and above  19 (-1)                8 (+3)                   35 (+7)        7 (-1)                31(-8)
Overall vote share 19 (0)                 7 (+4)                   37 (+6)        7(0)                  29 (-9)
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« Reply #713 on: May 29, 2019, 08:26:36 pm »

CSDS post-election poll of  Karnataka

The fact that BJP won the Vokkaliga vote and is fairly close to the UPA for the Dalit vote shows the extent of the defections of the JD(S) and INC base over to the BJP and in this disastrous alliance at the grassroots level.   The massive lead of the BJP in the Lingayat is not a surprise but the scale is.

Caste/Community    Cong-JDS (%)      BJP (%)       Others (%)
Upper Caste                 31                     63                   6
Vokkaliga                     33                     60                   7
Lingayat                       10                    87                   3
Other OBC                   46                     47                   7
Dalit                            49                    42                   9
Adivasi                        36                     54                 10
Muslim                        73                     18                   9
Others                         36                    55                    9
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« Reply #714 on: May 29, 2019, 08:33:43 pm »

CSDS post-election survey of WB

The Hindu, Dalit, Tribal vote consolidated around BJP from Left and INC while the Muslim vote consolidated around AITC from Left and INC.

                             BJP               AITC           Left           INC
Community   2014 2019   2014 2019   2014 2019   2014 2019
Hindus                21    57       40      32     29      6       6       3
Muslims                2     4        40      70     31    10      24     12
Upper caste        24    57       38       31     27      9       5       3
OBC                   21    65       43       28     26     4        4       2
Dalits                 20    61       40       27     29     6        8       4
Adivasis             11     58      40       28     41    12        5       2
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« Reply #715 on: May 29, 2019, 08:38:00 pm »

CSDS post-election Kerala survey

INC grew its lead with its core Muslim and Christian vote and held on to its vote based with the Upper Caste voters (Nair and other Upper caste) while containing the Left lead with Dalits ahd Ezhavas.  The result was a UPA landslide.

Caste/Community      UPA (%)     BJP (%)    Left (%)    Others
Nair                            34              34            20              11
Other Upper caste        31              42            27               0
Ezhavas                      28              21            45               6
Other OBC                  29              18             37             16
SC                             39               12            44               6
Muslim                       65                2            28                4
Christian                     70               2             24               5
Others                        34               7             51               7
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« Reply #716 on: May 29, 2019, 08:46:18 pm »

CSDS post-election survey of UP.  Similar to others where BJP furthers its hold of Upper Caste and wins the battle of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalits.  The Jat numbers look fishy.  RLD did not win its seats in the heavy Jat areas but they came close relative to 2014 which means a good part of the Jat vote came back to RLD from BJP since 2014.

                              INC (%)     BJP+ (%)    SP-BSP (%)   Others (%)
Brahmin                     6              82                   6              6
Rajput                        5              89                   7               -
Vaishya                    13              70                   4             13
Jat                             2              91                   7              0
Other Upper caste       5              84                 10              1
Yadav                        5               23                 60            12
Kurmi+Koeri               5              80                 14              1
Other OBC                 5               72                 18              5
Jatav                         1              17                  75              7
Other SC                   7               48                  42             3
Muslims                   14                8                  73              5
Others                       1              50                  35            14
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« Reply #717 on: May 29, 2019, 08:52:45 pm »

CSDS post-election survey for TN

DMK-INC surprisingly ate into the AIADMK Upper Caste base and actually won the Vanniyars vote despite PMK being part of AIADMK-BJP bloc.  TTV Dinakaran's AMMK, as expected, at into the AIADMK Thevar base but it seems flopped everywhere else.  DMK-INC as expected kept its Dalit and Muslim base and grew that lead. 

Caste/Community      DMK-INC+ (%)    AIADMK-BJP+ (%)    AMMK (%)   Others (%)
Upper caste                     53                        33                          3               11
Thevar                            34                        25                         34                7
Gounder                          62                        21                          7               11
(Dominant Peasant caste)   
Mudaliars                        58                        31                         10                2
Vanniyars                        51                        40                          3                6
Other OBC                       45                        32                        12               10
SC                                  66                        24                          5                 5
ST                                  60                        37                          -                 3
Muslim                           82                          4                         10                 4
Others                           50                         22                          5                22
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« Reply #718 on: May 29, 2019, 08:58:00 pm »

CSDS Rajasthan post-election survey comparing 2018 assembly election to 2019 LS election.  Upper Caste, Jats, and OBCs swung strongly over to BJP while INC gains relatively with Dalits and Muslims.

                                 INC                BJP
                            2018  2019      2018  2019
Brahmin                 39     15           45    82
Rajput                    35     40           53    57
Other Upper Caste  30     19           50     58
Jat                         30     13           26    85
Other OBCs            38     23           46     72
SCs                       39     54           34     39
STs                        41     38           40     55
Muslim                  62     79            14     19
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« Reply #719 on: May 29, 2019, 09:07:21 pm »

How did the vote go depending on education level go and Urban vs Rural
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« Reply #720 on: May 29, 2019, 09:20:48 pm »

CSDS post-election survey of Bihar

It seems RJD-INC has been reduced to a Yadav-Muslim force with everything else consolidating around the new BJP-JD(U)-LJP bloc.  The RJD-INC alliance with HAM-RLSP-VIP totally failed to capture Dalit, Kushwaha and Nishad OBC votes.

                           UPA (%)     NDA (%)   Others (%)
Upper caste             5               65             30
Yadav                    55               21             24
Koeri-Kurmi             7               70             23
Other OBCs             9               76             15
Scheduled Caste      5               76             19
Muslims                77                 6             17
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« Reply #721 on: May 29, 2019, 09:24:49 pm »

CSDS post-election survey of MP comparing 2018 assembly elections with 2019 LS elections

Upper Caste OBCs consolidates toward BJP while INC holds on to their Dalit base while Muslims consolidates behind INC.

                    INC             BJP              Others
                    2018 2019    2018 2019   2018 2019
Overall             40    35      41     58        19      7
Upper castes    33     25     58     75          9       -
OBCs               41     27     48     66        11      7
Dalits              49     50      33    38        18       1
Adivasis           40    38      30     54        30      8
Muslims           52     67     15     33        33      -
Others             37     47     48     26        15    26
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« Reply #722 on: May 29, 2019, 09:37:38 pm »

CSDS post-election survey for AP

JSP is just like PRP of 2009 as both are eating into the TDP Kapu vote.   Of course PRP's leader Chiranjeevi is the brother of JSP leader Pawan Kalyan are both Kapus.    Other then that YSRCP is just the new INC as the voting pattern just follows the old INC-TDP partisan alignment.  TDP is doing better with Muslims than before.  YSRCP leader Jaganmohan Reddy being a Christian must have helped YSRCP do well with Dalits (many of which are crypto-Christians but do not disclose it because it might be losing out on Dalit quotas.)     

                                   TDP (%)      YSCRP (%)    JSP (%)
Upper castes                  57                 29                7
Reddy                             8                 86                 3
Kamma                         61                 34                 -
Kapu and
other peasant castes      47                 19               26
OBCs                            46                 41                 7
SC                                31                 64                 1
ST                                14                 86                 -
Muslims                        46                 49                 -
Others                          54                 24               17
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« Reply #723 on: May 30, 2019, 04:42:18 am »

How did the vote go depending on education level go and Urban vs Rural

All I can find are below which include rural vs semi-rural vs urban districts



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« Reply #724 on: May 30, 2019, 06:47:37 am »

CSDS Aasam post-election survey

Hindu, Dalit and Tribal consolidation around NDA while Muslims consolidated around INC.  The BJP has successfully framed the immigration issues as a Muslim Bangladesh illegal immigration issue which turned Tribals and Dalits in addition to caste Hindus toward BJP.

Social class     INC (%)   NDA (%)   AIUDF (%)   Others (%)
Upper caste      13            74                -               12
OBC                 22            60                -               18
Dalit                  9             66               -               26
Adivasi              7             86               -                 7
Muslim            70              7              20                 3
Others            14             75               2                 9

Hindus            16            70               <1              14
Muslims           70            7               20                 3
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