2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

The 2014 J&K assembly election saw the JKN and INC fight separately to to prevent the PDP and BJP surge in Kashmir and Jammu respectively.  To some extent they recovered some votes but it was clear that PDP and BJP came out ahead in their respective regions as the anti-incumbent wave was too strong.

2014 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            86                12             18.20%

INC rebel                         0               0.48%
 
JKN+          86               16             21.13%

JKN rebel                         0              1.21%

PDF             3                  1              0.73% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         85                28             23.32%

PDP rebel                         0             0.22%

JKDPN+        5                 0              0.61% (PDP splinter)

BJP             75               25            23.22%

BJP rebel                         1              1.14%

JKPC          26                 2              1.95% (Separatist)

BSP           50                  0             1.42%

JKNPP        60                  0             2.01% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            3                  1              0.50%

AIP             1                  1              0.38% (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K assembly election (Kashmir)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            45                 4             12.92%

INC rebel                         0               0.56%
 
JKN            46               12             29.58%

JKN rebel                         0              2.04%

PDF             3                  1              1.66% (JKN splinter)

PDP            46               25             37.91%

PDP rebel                         0             0.50%

JKDPN+        5                 0             1.39% (PDP splinter)

BJP             34                 0             2.27%

JKPC          25                 2              4.43% (Separatist)

CPM            2                  1              1.11%

AIP             1                  1              0.87% (Separatist)

The battle was mostly PDP vs JKN but it seems some of the anti-JKN INC vote that went PDP in the LS election came back.  Turnout in Kasmir assembly elections are at lot higher than LS elections which should have helped PDP and Separatist parties but JKN and INC running separately did seem to help to retain the core vote bases from PDP.




2014 J&K assembly election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              4                  3            51.25%
 
JKN+            3                 1             13.90%           

PDP              3                 0             11.89%

BJP               4                 0            22.37%

Without directly LUTF support BJP support fell a bit and the INC was able to consolidate its Buddhist  and Muslim base to win 3 out the 4 seats while PDP managed to split the JKN Muslim vote.



2014 J&K assembly election  (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            37                 5             21.01%

INC rebel                         0              0.44%
 
JKN            37                 3             14.51%

JKN rebel                         0              0.59%

PDP+         36                  3             11.87%

BJP            37                25             40.47%

BJP rebel                         1              2.13%

BSP           36                  0             2.45%

JKNPP        34                  0             3.43% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

The BJP wave continued from the 2014 LS election.  In theory it should be a BJP clean sweep in Hindu areas with INC-JKN split but the INC was able to gain back some anti-JKN votes to dent the BJP vote share to retain a few seats.

With the assembly hopelessly hung months of debates and talks produced a bizarre PDP-BJP government with PDP leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as CM again. Despite the contradictory nature of this alliance  it managed to continue until 2016 when Mufti Mohammad Sayeed passed away.
 Again after several months of talks PDP-BJP government was reformed with now PDP leader  Mehbooba Mufti as CM.    The PDP-BJP alliance clearly hurt PDP in Kashmir as the anti-BJP Muslim vote must have drifted to JKN.    In the meantime JKN-INC restored their alliance.

Then in June 2018 PDP and BJP had a finally falling out and J&K was put under "Governor's rule" which is really rule from the federal government.  The 2019 J&K assembly election will most likely seen BJP vs PDP vs JKN-INC.  It is clear that in Kashmir JKN should defeat PDP and in Ladkah INC should defeat BJP as Buddhist Ladkah LUTF seems to have drifted away from BJP.  The real question will be in Jammu on if the BJP can hold on to the Hindu vote against the INC.  All things equal a JKN-INC government will be formed after the assembly election.  The question is with how large of a majority which is a function of Jammu results.

[jaichind]

CNX poll for UP after the India-Pakistan conflict (change relative to early Feb poll)

NDA                41 (+12)
SP-BSP-RLD    35 (-14)
INC                  4 (+2)


Like I guessed, the India-Pakistan conflict tends to help both BJP and INC relative to regional parties.  If India-Pakistan conflict now dies down I suspect the impact of this will be fairly small as level of support might revert over the next month or so.

[jaichind]

In TN DMK-INC alliance talks done:  In Puducherry the alliance will back the INC candidate.  In the 39 TN seats it will be DMK 20 INC 9 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 2 MDMK 1 IJK 1 IUML 1 KMDK 1.
MDMK is also allocated a Upper House seat when the TN elect its next batch of Upper House MPs in June.

What is striking about this distribution is the relative weakness of MDMK in these talks. I would have expected MDMK to get 2 if not 3 seats.  CPI and CPM getting 2 seats each is way above what they are worth but I guess DMK is betting that the small CPI and CPM vote base are more transferable so it makes sense to get them on board.

On the AIADMK side it already have BJP PMK and PT in the alliance and there are talks with DMDK to bring them in.  Both PMK and DMDK held talks with DMK but they are went nowhere because DMK has a winning hand and saw no need to give up large number of seats to either PMK nor DMDK.  AIADMK with AMMK splitting the AIADMK base and taking an the anti-BJP mood in TN is more desperate and willing to deal.

Even if AIADMK ropes in DMDK most likely DMK bloc will have the upper hand if not sweep the state.  On risk for DMK-INC bloc is if AMMK and upstart NMN ends up eating into the anti-BJP vote letting in AIADMK bloc in some seats.
 

[jaichind]

News Nation poll for Bihar and Jharkhand.

For Bihar it has
 
            Seat   Vote share
NDA       27         45%
UPA       12          37%
Other      1

which seems reasonable given the relative sizes of the social bases of the two blocs.



For Jharkhand  it has

           Seat   Vote share
NDA      10         42%
UPA         4         34%

Which given the INC-JMM-JVM-RJD grand alliance is surprising.  One would expect UPA to at least fight BJP to a draw.  If this poll is true then it implies UPA allies are not able to transfer votes to each other.



Separately VPA came out with a projection that NDA will win 240-260 seats.  Back in early Feb VPA projected 242 seats for NDA.  If so it seems NDA gained around 10 seats from the conflict with Pakistan which implies that impact of the conflict with Pakistan is already wearing off.
 

[jaichind]

More alliance news which mostly are favorable to BJP

1) In Jharkhand BJP-AJSU alliance formed.  BJP will contest 13 out of 14 seats and AJSU will contest 1 seat.  I am surprised that AJSU was willing to accept 1 seat but this does give BJP a fighting chance in Jharkhand to win a majority of seat against INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.

2) In Delhi there are still on again off again INC-AAP talks but most likely they will fight separately and BJP should sweep all 7 seats.

3) In UP RJD has joined SP-BSP alliance so it will be BSP 38 seats SP 37 seats 3 RJD with the alliance not running in the 2 Gandhi INC seats.  There are still rumors of ongoing talks between SP-BSP and INC.  I still think the most likely outcome are for a tactical alliance where SP-BSP vacate 5-6 more seats where INC is fairly strong and INC vacate 30-40 seats where INC is more likely to split the anti-BJP vote and run in other seats where INC has Upper Caste support to ensure that those votes does not go INC.  

4) In TN it seems DMDK has agreed to join AIADMK-BJP-PMK-PT alliance where it will contest 4 seats.  This is not confirmed but if so then this is a big climb-down for DMDK.  Of course the 2016 TN assembly election results show the true size of the DMDK base without the novelty factor of 2006-2009.

5) In AP it is pretty clear now that TDP and INC will run separately so TDP can run a clear anti-Telengana  campaign by pinning YSRCP as a puppet of TRS given the recent de facto alliance between YSRCP and TRS.

6) In Assam it is still not clear of AGP will join the BJP alliance now that the new citizenship bill has been withdrawn.  There are rumors of INC-AGP alliance talks but most likely in the end AGP will go with BJP.

7) Former BJP head of Kerala Kummanam Rajasekharan who is now the governor of Mizoram has resigned as governor and it is said he will contest for the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram of Kerala which is BJP's strongest district.  This gives BJP a clear shot at winning its first seat ever in Kerala if the INC and Left Front vote are evenly split.

8  ) In Maharashtra it seems SHS splinter NMS which has turned to a harsh anti-Modi stance is unlikely to contest and de facto throw its support behind NCP (although taking a more neutral stance on INC).  Not sure how this will work out on the ground but should give INC-NCP a chance to fight BJP-SHS to a draw here.

9) In WB there has been on again off again talks between INC and Left Front for an alliance.  At this stage that no longer seems possible but there could be some sort of tactical alliance where INC and Left Front support each other in some seats but have "friendly fights" in other seats.  Main problem here is geographical.  Some of the INC strongholds happens to have strong Left Front presence with AITC and BJP far behind.  So the idea here is where INC and Left front can form an alliance both are so weak as not to be able to take on AITC nor BJP.  Where INC or Left Front are strong both are strong so they view each other as the enemy as opposed to AITC and BJP.

10) In Karnataka INC-JD(S) talks are getting heated there is danger of the entire alliance breaking down with both sides sticking to their guns.  I suspect this is a game of chicken and a INC-JD(S) alliance will be formed.

11) In Bihar it is the same in RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP talks where INC insist on 12-14 seats out of 40 while RJD only could part with 10 given the need to accommodate other allies like RLDP HAM VIP and perhaps CPI CPM CPM(ML).  RJD has made a final offer of 11 seats to INC but it seems INC insist on at least 12.  I suspect this is just a game of chicken since if this alliance splits then for sure BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar.

[jaichind]

ECI announces LS election dates which will be 7 phases between April 11 to May 19

Date      April 11 April 18 April 23  April 29   May 6   May 12  May 19
States       20     13           14          9           7          7            8
Seats        91       97         115        71         51        59          59

There will be 543 LS seats, the number of eligible votes are around 900 million, there will be around 1 million polling stations and around 11 million polling staff.

For assembly elections AP, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Odisha (Orissa) will be held at the same time as the LS but not J&K.  The opposition in J&K (JKN PDP INC) are crying foul saying that this is an attempt to lower turnout in J&K and help BJP.

[jaichind]

Based on this schedule one should expect exit polls to come out 5/19 and counting to take place 5/23.

[jaichind]

Now that poll dates are announced a bunch of polls came out.  The first one is India TV-CNX  which has it at

            Seats    Diff vs 2014     Diff vs Jan 2019 poll   
NDA        285         -70                     +28
UPA         126         +46                    -20
Others     132         +24                     -8


                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      23                  6                                                        29
Chhattisgarh         6                   5                                                       11
Rajastahan          20                   5                                                       25
Punjab                        SAD:3     9                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               9                   1                                                        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U)12   2  RJD:8                                             40
                                 LJP:3                                           
WB                     12                  0                                      AITC:30      42
                                                                                       Left:0
Odisha                 7                   0                BJD:14                             21   
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          13                 13  JD(S):2                                           28
AP                      0                   0   TDP:3     YSRCP:22                          25
Kerala                 1                   8  MUL:2                           Left:5          20
                                                   KEC(M):1                      Left Ind: 2
                                                   RSP:1
TN                      1  AIADMK:12 5  DMK:16                        AMMK:2      39 
                              PMK:2                                               NMN:1
UP                    40   AD:1         4                                      SP:18         80
                                                                                       BSP:16
                                                                                       RLD:1
Maharashtra      22   SHS:10     9  NCP:7                                              48     
Delhi                  7                   0                                       AAP:0           7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Assam                8                   4                                      AIUDF:2       14     
Northeast           3  MNF:1        3                                      Left:1           11
                             SDF:1                                               
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
UT                    4   AINRC:0    2                                                           6
Telengana         0                    2                   TRS:14        AIMIM:1       17                   
Jharkhand         8                   2  JMM:3                           JVM:1          14
Goa                  2                   0                                                           2
Uttarakhand      5                   0                                                           5
HP                    4                   0                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              238  47           82  45             50               81              543


I think this poll still does not categorize JVM correctly as UPA and also still counts TDP as UPA when TDP does not have an alliance with INC in AP.

Overall NDA lost ground in the Northeast due to the Citizenship bill but gained ground in the Hindi North due to the Pakistan conflict and also gained in TN due to AIADMK-BJP alliance.  I am still skeptical that AIADMK-BJP can do so well in TN given the anti-Hindi sentiment there.  Also J&K result of (BJP 2 INC 2 JKN 1 PDP 1) does not make sense.  It implies that INC or BJP would win a seat in Kashmir when that is not possible.  Overall the trend of this poll relative to Jan does seem to make sense and the momentum so far is with BJP.

[jaichind]

Map an details of the 7 LS phases



Phase 1
Last date of polling: April 11
Andhra Pradesh - 25
Arunachal- 2
Assam - 5
Bihar - 4
Chattisgarh - 1
Jammu Kashmir - 2
Maharashtra - 7
Manipur - 1
Meghalaya - 2
Mizoram - 1
Nagaland - 1
Orissa - 4
Sikkim - 1
Telangana - 17
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 2
Andaman Nicobar Islands- 1

Phase 2:
Last date of polling: April 18
Asaam - 5
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 3
Jammu and Kashmir - 2
Karnataka  - 14
Maharashtra - 10
Manipur - 1
Orissa - 5
Tamil Nadu - 39
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 3
Puducherry - 1

Phase 3:
Last date of polling: April 23
Assam - 4
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 7
Gujarat - 26
Goa - 2
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Karnataka - 14
Kerala - 20
Maharashtra - 14
Orissa - 6
Uttar Pradesh - 10
West Bengal - 5
Dadar and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1

Phase 4:
Date of counting: May 23
Bihar - 5
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh  - 6
Maharashtra  - 17
Orissa - 6
Rajasthan - 13
Uttar Pradesh - 13
West Bengal - 8

Phase 5:
Last date of polling: May 6
Bihar- 5
Jammu and Kashmir- 2
Jharkhand  - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 7
Rajasthan - 12
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 7

Phase 6:
Last date of polling: May 12
Bihar - 8
Haryana - 10
Jharkhand - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 8
Delhi - 7

Phase 7:
Last date of polling: May 19
Bihar - 8
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Punjab - 13
West Bengal - 9
Chandigarh - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 13
Himachal Pradesh - 4

[jaichind]

C-voter poll for LS elections (change from Jan 2019 poll)

           seats        vote share
NDA     264(+31)    41.1%(+3.5%)
UPA     141(-26)     30.9%(-1.3%)
Others 183(-5)       28.0%(-2.2%)


Most of the NDA gains especially with respect to vote share are from alliance with AIADMK in TN and alliance with SHS in Maharashtra. Of course the BJP surge in the Hindi heartland also adds to the gain in seats relative to Jan 2019.

By state
Bihar



Gujarat



Kerala



Assam
UPA- 7
NDA-6
AIUDF- 1
UPA- 42.6%
NDA-42.5%
AIUDF- 3.9%
Others-11%


UP



Maharashtra



MP



Rajasthan



Odisha



Haryana



Punjab



WB



HP



TN



Jharkhand



Karnataka



Delhi



AP



J&K



Telangana



Goa



Uttarakhand



Chhattisgarh



Manipur



Arunachal Pradesh



Meghalaya

[jaichind]

Zee 24 Taas poll

             Seats
NDA        264
UPA         165
Others     114


Some state details

Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats
BJP - 50
INC - 5
SP-BSP - 25


Bihar: 40 seats
NDA - 28
UPA - 10
Others - 2


Jharkhand: 14 seats
NDA - 7
UPA - 7

 
Chhattisgarh: 11 seats
BJP - 4
INC - 7


Punjab: 13 seats
NDA - 3 (SAD -2 BJP -1)
INC - 10


Haryana: 10 seats
BJP - 6
INC - 3
Others - 1 (I assume INLD)

 
Gujarat: 26 seats
BJP - 24
INC - 2

 
Maharashtra: 48 seats
NDA - 30  (BJP 16 SHS 14)
UPA - 17 (INC 7 NCP 10)
Others - 1

 
Karnataka: 28 seats
BJP - 8
UPA - 20


Jammu and Kashmir: 6 seats
BJP - 3
UPA - 2 (INC 0 JKN -2)
PDP - 1

[jaichind]

News nation poll

          Seats  Vote share
NDA      270      34%
UPA      134      28%
Others  139      29%



State level results

TN



Karnataka



Maharastra



Chhattisgarh



Bihar



WB



Odisha



Gujarat



Jharkhand



MP



J&K
The BJP is expected to win 3 of the 6 seats. Congress, NC and PDP may win one seat each.


Assam
BJP - 7 seats, Congress - 4 seats, AIUDF - 2 seats


UP
BJP may win 35 seats, SP-BSP-RLD may win 43 seats.  I guess INC 2


Uttarakhand:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 1 seat


Haryana:
BJP - 6 seats, Congress - 2 seats, INLD - 1 seat, JJP - 1 seat (INLD splinter)


HP:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 0 seats


Delhi:
BJP - 4 seats, AAP - 3 seats

[jaichind]

In seems in WB INC and Left front are close to a full alliance.  It is said INC will contest 17 seats and Left front 25 seats.  It seems both INC and Left Front are concerned that if there is no Left Front-INC alliance then anti-AITC Left Front voters might vote BJP.

[jaichind]

How many seats does the NDA have to win to be certain that they will form the next government? A majority? Or how many below the magic 272?

Also, how many for Modi to stay as PM? (as opposed to having a different BJP Prime Minister)
And how many for Gandhi to be the likely next PM?

I would say if BJP (not NDA) is at 220 or above then PM is for sure Modi.  If BJP is between 200 and 220 it is most likely Modi but could end up being BJP's Nitin Gadkari.  If BJP is between 180 and 200 then most likely it will be Nitin Gadkari but could still be Modi.  If BJP is below 180 then it would be Nitin Gadkari or someone like NCP leader Sharad Pawar as a leader of some sort of Grand Alliance government.

If INC gets above 150 (which means BJP is most likely at most 150 or a bit more) I can see INC forming the government but most likely not Rahul Gandhi as I suspect he could not rally support of parties like SP or BSP to back him.  It might even end up being Sonia Gandhi or again NCP leader Sharad Pawar.  INC getting above 150 this election is far fetched so this is a fairly unlikely scenario.
 Frankly I do not even think Rahul Gandhi is planning to fight to become PM in 2019.  His goal should always be 2024.   

[jaichind]

India Today Axis poll on preferred PM is interesting.

They have it at (change from Jan)
Modi              52(+4)
Rahul Gandhi  33(-2)

Usually these polls overestimate the sitting PM and Rahul Gandhi at 33 is actually pretty good at the start of a campaign.   The Jan 2019 numbers were just after the INC victory in late 2018 assembly elections which was an artificial high number for Rahul Gandhi anyway.   

The demographic breakdown and compared to a Jan 2019 poll are interesting
 
By community
                      Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Upper Caste      72(+15)         15(-11)
OBC                 67(+12)          20(-7)
Tribals              44(-5)             40(+8)
Dalits               41(-6)             44(+10)
Muslims            18(+1)            61(+4)

So the conflict with Pakistan has consolidated Hindu Upper Caste and OBC behind Modi which Rahul Gandhi is gaining ground with Dalits and Tribals.  This would be relatively good news for BJP in places like MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, HP, and Uttarakhand, mixed news in places like UP, Bihar, Haryana, WB and bad news for BJP in places like Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. 


By region it is
                    Modi          Rahul Gandhi
North            54(+5)            31(-1)
South           38(+3)            45(-1)
West             56(+3)            29(-1)
East              57(+3)            27(-2)


By gender it is
                   Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Male             53(+6)            32(-5)
Female         51(+2)             35(+1)


By urban/rural it is
                  Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Urban          50(+4)             31(-2)
Rural           49(+3)             35(-1)

So Modi starts the campaign consolidating the urban male Upper Caste voter with Rahul making gains with Tribals and Dalits.  Bad news for INC is that BJP vs INC battleground states like MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, HP, and Uttarakhand are exactly the states that Modi has done well in the past and seems to start the election with a large lead which would give again the BJP an outsized seat share relative to vote share.

[jaichind]

In Assam BJP and AGP renews alliance now that Citizenship bill is put on hold.  AGP has no real choice since if AGP ran separately it would have no chance to wins seats.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/agp-bjp-join-hands-two-months-after-separation-722964.html

[jaichind]

In TN INC splinter TMC also joins AIADMK-BJP alliance.   On the whole AIADMK have been giving out a large number of seats in its bid to form a grand alliance.  I am not sure if that is a good idea.  By giving out more seats than "market value" AIADMK can build a large coalition but sends a signal that AIADMK is weak and in decline.  To some extent DMK has a similar problem as it gave out 2 seats to CPI and CPM which is more than they are worth.  But on the whole the problem is worse on the AIADMK side.

Articles like

"When Amma is not there Modi is our daddy, India's daddy: AIADMK minister"

https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/when-amma-is-not-there-modi-is-our-daddy-india-s-daddy-aiadmk-minister-119031100004_1.html

Where an AIADMK leader calls Modi "Daddy" projects weakness and allows the DMK to attack the AIADMK as a puppet of BJP and provoke the specter of Hindi chauvinism which TN is fairly sensitive to.

[jaichind]

VPA poll which tends to have a pro-BJP bias but recently came out with some poor poll results for NDA came out with a poll which puts NDA at above majority.

             Seats    Vote share
NDA        291         41%
UPA        120         33%
Others     132         26%




By region
                               Seats                                           Vote share
                    NDA        UPA      Others     Total         NDA        UPA      Others
Northeast        17           4            4           25
East                69          13          36        118          43%        29%       28%
South              31          48          51        130         27%        40%       33%
West               81          23           0         104          49%        41%      10%
North              93          32          41        166          48%        31%       21%

Looking at seat count we can derive the regions to be

Northeast - Assam, Arunachal P, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Meghalaya, Sikkim
East - Bihar, Jharkhand, WB, Orissa, A&N
South - Karnataka, AP, Telangana, TN, Kerala, Pondicherry
West - Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, D&N H, D&D, Lakshadweep
North - J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Chandigarh

Some state level data

Bihar
             Seat        Vote share
NDA        34              49%  (BJP 16 JD(U) 14 LJP 4)
UPA          6              38%  (RJD 4 INC 2)
Others                      13%


Jammu only - BJP 58% INC 32% Other 10% -> BJP wins the 2 seats with ease in Jammu


MP
            Seat        Vote share
BJP        22              49%
INC         7              42%
BSP                          5%


Chhattisgarh
              Seat        Vote share
INC          9              45%
BJP           2             38%
Others                     17%


Punjab
             Seats
INC          7
NDA         5   (SAD 4 BJP 1)
AAP          1


Haryana
             Seats    Vote share
BJP           9           46%
INC           0           19%
JJP            1           22%
Others                    13%


Gujarat
             Seats    Vote share
BJP          24           53%
INC           2           40%
Others                     7%


Rajasthan
             Seats
BJP         20
INC          5


Karnataka
             Seats        Vote share
BJP         15                 46%
UPA        13                 48%  (INC 10 JD(S) 3)


UP
             Seats         Vote share
SP-BSP    38                40.7%  (BJP 37 AD 1)
NDA        36                42.4%  (SP 21 BSP 15 RLD 2)
UPA          5                 11.0% (INC 5)
PSP(L)      1
Others                           5.9%


TN
             Seats         Vote share
UPA          18               38% (DMK 14 INC 2 VCK 2)
NDA          15               36% (AIADMK 12 PMK 2 BJP 1)
AMMK         6               20%
NMN                             2%
NTK                              2%

So we can infer some results in other large states.  This implies that in Jharkhand, WB, Orissa, A&N NDA would win 35 seats which would imply very strong BJP finishes in all of them.

Pretty much this poll paints a story of a Modi surge in the Hindi belt just large enough to win most of the seats despite a vote share lead that is not that massive while in TN an UPA sweep was averted by AMMK winning a large part of the anti-BJP vote and produced a larger than expected seat haul for NDA.

[jaichind]

Mint.com does their own scenario analysis of LS elections.

First they assume vote share in 2014 are unchanged but take into account changes in alliance.  This gives NDA 319 seats as NDA lost TDP as an ally in AP and Telenaga but gained AIADMK as an ally in TN  and, AJSU in Jharkhand, and  AGP/BPF as an ally in Assam as well as swapping RLSP for JD(U) in Bihar.
Thinking about this list despite all the talk about Modi driving away allies this record since 2014 is not bad for BJP/Modi.




The second scenario which is more realistic takes into account that the 2014 Modi wave was based on anti-incumbency.  Using recent assembly election results and taking into account of anti-incumbency for states that had assembly results as while ago generates a state-centric projection which has NDA as 250 seats but UPA only at 107 seats.
 


The third scenario builds on the second scenario by assuming another Modi wave which generates another significant majority for NDA with BJP at 240 seats.



The fourth scenario takes the second scenario and assumes Rahul Gandhi/INC catches fire by pinning rural distress and slow job growth on Modi/BJP.    This creates a virtual tie between NDA(187 seats) and UPA(184 seats) with BJP (142 seats) and INC (139 seats) also in a virtual tie.


Most polls seem to show the race somewhere between the second and third scenario.  The best Rahul Gandhi and INC can hope for now is a reversion of race to a pre-Pakistan conflict stage which would be something like a bit better than second scenario which is achieved by various alliances breakthroughs in UP, Bihar and WB.

[jaichind]

In Bihar there is still a deadlock between RJD and INC on seat sharing.  INC insist on 15 seats while RJD is proposing RJD 20 INC 11 RLSP 3 HAM 2 VIP 2 CPI 1 CPI(ML) 1 and LJD run on the RJD symbol.  INC position seems strange given the history of RJD-INC alliances.  Historically the alliance of RJD-INC in Bihar were

1999 LS: RJD 32 INC 5 RJD backed independent 1
2004 LS: RJD 26 LJP 8 INC 4 NCP 1 CPM 1
2009 LS: RJD and INC ran separately
2014 LS: RJD 27 INC 12 NCP 1

NCP in Bihar have since mostly merged into INC.  Still unlike 2014 RJD-INC now have to accommodate RLSP HAM VIP CPI CPM CPM(ML).  INC's position seems to be that RJD has to accommodate these new allies and if anything the INC quota should go up relative to 2014's 13 (INC 12 NCP 1).  Granted with Lalu Yadav in jail the RJD strength has weakened but under the circumstances INC at 11 seats seems reasonable.

The main reason for INC's position seems to be a bunch of BJP and JD(U) Upper Caste rebels want to join INC to run and INC could not accommodate all these rebels and make sure its main Bihar Kingpins also get to run.  I suspect INC will have to backdown as the premise of these BJP and JD(U) MP (or ex-MP) defections to INC are premised on INC being part of the RJD alliance which can marry the RJD Yadav-Muslim vote base to their Upper caste vote based to defeat BJP-JD(U)-LJP.

[jaichind]

In Bihar, it seems the RJD-INC alliance have reached at deal.  It will be RJD 20 INC 11 RLSP 3 HAM 2 LJD 1 VIP 1 CPI 1 CPI(ML) 1.  Getting CPI(ML) is quite a coup since the Maoist CPI(ML) have a fairly large base in central Bihar.  They seem to want to hold on announcing the exact candidates and seats since they want to see what BJP-JD(U)-LJP comes up with in terms candidates, and from which community to be exact.

In Karnataka INC reached a deal with JD(S) to contest together INC 20 JD(S) 8. I suspect after this election the BJP will overtake INC as the largest party in Karnataka since anti-JD(S) elements in INC will go over to BJP as will anti-INC elements in JD(S).  Still on the short term this will help INC-JD(S) gain a few extra seats.

In Delhi it seems Rahul Gandhi is asking INC poll workers to vote online to indicate they they are for forming an alliance with AAP.  I suspect this is too late as AAP has already announced their candidates.  Even if INC would want to make a deal with AAP, AAP will counter demand that INC also form an alliance with AAP in Haryana which I am sure is dead on arrival for the Haryana INC.

[jaichind]

Now that election season has started all sort if silly stuff are taking place.

In Karnataka, ECI officials made astrologers cover up their advertisement posters


Since the hand symbol are often used as the symbol of astrologers


The ECI say that the hand symbol is also the election symbol of INC so a poster so an astrologers advertisement poster could be interpreted as an endorsement of INC



In AP, ECI officials went into all government buildings to remove pictures of AP CM Naidu saying that Naidu's role as the leader of TDP conflicts with the neutrality of the government during elections.  TDP struck back by going to ECI offices demanding that all electric fans be removed from AP government buildings since an electric fan is the election symbol of TDP rival YSRCP.

[jaichind]

Political consultancy firm Political Edge  did a poll of Gujarat which is quite out of sync with other media polls.  It has it at

            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16            50%
INC         10            43%

Which is similar to the 2017 Gujarat assembly election implied results
           
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         19            50%
INC+        7            43%

The poll seem to indicate a swing toward INC in tribal areas in the North as well as in the Southern Saurashtra area where  Hardik Patel joining INC seems to have also generated a swing. The rest of Gujarat saw a swing away from INC but the net effect is help INC get ahead in some marginal seats.

This poll seems to indicate a lack of a Modi wave which could be problematic for BJP if true.

[jaichind]

So far the battle of defections of key politician assets (MPs MLAs ex-MPs ex-MLA and children of said key politicians)  is clearly in the favor of BJP but INC scored a few more wins recently.  

1) In places like Gujarat Haryana Maharashtra and Karnataka there has been a stream of INC->BJP defections.  In Karnataka and Maharashtra it has to do with INC-JD(S) and INC-NCP alliances although NCP seems to be holding together and there are signs that BJP-SHS alliance is provoking some possible SHS defections.
2) In AP the stream of defections seems to be INC -> TDP or YSRCP and TDP->YRSCP.  
3) In WB both the INC and to some extent AITC there has been defections to the BJP.
4) In UP there have been defections of Dalit BJP politicians to INC or SP-BSP but a somewhat large number of SP-BSP defections to BJP and INC.  Most of this is due to SP-BSP alliance.
5) In Bihar the defection game seems to be benefiting INC with some key BJP and JD(U) rebels going over to INC.
6) In Odisha there has been INC defections to both BJP and BJD while BJP has a small edge over BJD in the defection game.
7) In Uttarakhand and Assam the defection game has been fairly even between INC and BJP.
8 ) In Telangana some TDP leaders are defecting to INC but there is a large surge of INC to TRS defections.

The main takeaway from the defection game is that BJP seems to have a small momentum edge over INC, YSRCP seems poised to sweep AP, TRS seems poised to sweep Telangana, RJD-INC might do better than expected in Bihar despite polls showing a BJP-JD(U)-LJP sweep, INC out of the game in Odisha, BJP most likely fight INC-JD(S) to a draw in Karnataka, and that in Northern India the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland seems to be intact.

[jaichind]

BJP CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar passed away after being critically ill for some time.  This comes a a bad time for the BJP in Goa as the current BJP led government is formed by cobbling together various INC splinters/rebels and local BJP sometimes ally and sometimes rival MAG.  With INC splinter GFP already pulling support for the BJP government is pretty much already in minority. 

Now the BJP will have to pick a successor and get a vote of confidence through.  Most likely a series of political and most likely monetary bribes will be needed to get get such a vote through (like getting the lone NCP MLA to go over to the BJP camp.)  One way or another it will look ugly.  But the cost of losing CM position to INC is even worse for the BJP.