2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 64878 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #825 on: September 21, 2019, 09:15:31 AM »

Maharashtra, Haryana elections to be held on October 21, result on October 24
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jaichind
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« Reply #826 on: September 22, 2019, 09:05:43 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mns-says-it-will-contest-maharashtra-elections-fight-80-100-seats/articleshow/71229613.cms

In Maharashtra NMS will contest 80-100 seats.  It seems that they will tacitly back INC-NCP in the rest of the seats.  Most likely will not make that of a difference.  Voters that will vote NMS are much more likely to vote BJP-SHS than INC-NCP if NMS is not on the ballot regardless of what Raj Thackery might say or imply. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #827 on: September 22, 2019, 09:24:29 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2019, 09:28:08 AM by jaichind »

ABP poll

Maharashtra
                
             Seats      Vote share
NDA        205           46%
  BJP                         31%
  SHS                        15%
UPA         55            30%
  INC                         16%
  NCP                        12%
Others     28            24%



NDA seems to have lost some support since 2019 LS elections but it seems that so have UPA with NMS VBA and AIMIM plus various smaller parties or rebels picking up a lot of support.

If it is a 4 way race like 2014 then it is

BJP        144
SHS        39
INC         21
NCP         20
Others     64



I sort of do not buy this since in a 4 way race the 4 major parties will be able to rope in various allies among the minor parties so a lot seats minor players could win in a 4 way race will end up being won as an ally of one of the 4 key parties.


For Haryana it seems like a mega BJP blowout

         seats    vote share
BJP     78            46%
INC      8             22%
JJP       1              8%
INLD    0              3%
Others  3             21%


 
Where BJP lost some ground since 2019 LS elections but the INC success in getting Jat votes in 2019 LS election will see some of that vote flowing back to JJP and INLD while BJP still sweeps the non-Jat vote.  Result is a mega BJP landslide.

The good news for INC is that with the BJP as the incumbent party these polls all things equal overstate BJP support and INC can expect to do somewhat better than these polls suggest.  Still the outlook for INC seems dire and it is clear they have lost ground from the 2019 LS elections to minor parties and rebels of all types.
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jaichind
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« Reply #828 on: September 22, 2019, 09:42:28 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/election-commission-announces-bypolls-to-64-assembly-seats-one-lok-sabha-constituency/articleshow/71232389.cms

On Oct 21 in addition to Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections there will be 64 assembly and 1 LS by-elections.  Most of the assembly by-elections are for MLAs that won a LS seat and their seat became vacant.   

15 of the assembly by-elections are for Karnataka where 17 (14 IN and 3 JD(S)) MLA resigned to support BJP government on the premise that the BJP will nominate them in the by-election.  The outgoing INC Speaker trumped these rebels by ruling that they are ineligible to run in by-elections which led to a spat of lawsuits many of which have been dismissed.  As a result 15 out of 17 openings will see by-elections without the INC or JD(S) rebel being able to run on the BJP ticket.  INC and JD(S) have decided to run separately for these by-elections going by how badly their base fused on the 2019 LS elections.  They might be right but I suspect with the honeymoon period for the new BJP Karnataka government still in place  the BJP should win most of these by-elections.  One way or another Oct 21 will see a mini-assembly election for Karnataka.
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jaichind
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« Reply #829 on: September 22, 2019, 01:03:24 PM »

Looks like the Houston Trump-Modi rally seems to be a mutual endorsement so of what Trump has (or perhaps had) with Netanyahu.  This could be a critical factor on how Indian Americans might vote in 2020 given how popular Modi is with NRIs in USA. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #830 on: September 23, 2019, 08:50:55 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2019, 12:48:35 PM by jaichind »

In Maharashtra Dalit-Muslim VBA have ruled out, again an alliance with INC-NCP despite NCP attempts to pull VBA into the alliance.  INC less keen on VBA in the INC-NCP alliance since the VBA Dalit-Muslim base overlaps that of INC while there are a lot less overlap between NCP and VBA. VBA, on its own, is trying to rope in AIMIM to replicate the 2019 LS elections.  If VBA fails to rope in AIMIM then its Dalit base might tactically vote for INC-NCP so it is critical VBA gets AIMIM on board.  Right now that does not seem likely with time running out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #831 on: September 23, 2019, 01:52:06 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/diu/story/bjp-sena-comfortably-ahead-if-lok-sabha-election-results-mirror-assembly-polls-in-maharashtra-1602323-2019-09-23

India Today analysis shows that if you take the 2019 LS elections at the assembly segments BJP won 122 and SHS 105 seats.  INC and NCP won 22 and 23 assembly segments.  Looking at the map it seems UPA ally YSP won 3 segments and UPA ally SWP won 4 segments.  There was clearly a Modi wav that carried NDA.  UPA have to hope that recedes to give it a chance to avoid a landslide defeat.  INC and NCP local kingpin defections to BJP and SHS make this job harder.

The map clearly shows that SHS is stronger in coastal Mahabharata while BJP is stronger in the interior areas. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #832 on: September 24, 2019, 06:31:22 AM »

In Maharashtra the rumors are the BJP-SHS deal will look something like BJP 150 SHS 123 other allies 15 although certain factions within BJP and SHS fell that these numbers are a sellout and there are still pressures within both parties to contest alone.
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jaichind
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« Reply #833 on: September 26, 2019, 03:01:58 PM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/in-maharashtra-seat-pact-bjp-to-play-big-brother-to-shiv-sena-sources-2107790

Sources say that the BJP-SHS deal for Maharashtra will be BJP 144 seats SHS 126 and other allies 18.  144 would be tough for BJP to work with given the number of defectors it took in.    A bunch of current BJP MLAs will must likely be dropped to make it all work.  If true then even if SHS did not get a 50/50 split it prevented the BJP from pushing the number of SHS seat allocation to 110 or below as it seems was the original BJP position. 


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/karnataka-bypolls-deferred-ec-puppet-of-central-government-says-jds-first-victory-claims-bjp/articleshow/71316213.cms

In Karnataka the 15 assembly by-polls have been deferred by the high court pending appeals by the INC and JD(S) rebels that resigned to contest for BJP but barred from doing so from the INC Speaker right before the new BJP government came to power in the Summer.
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jaichind
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« Reply #834 on: September 27, 2019, 05:39:46 AM »

Newsx poll

Maharashtra (4 way battle which is obsolete given BJP-SHS deal that was just struck)

          Seats    vote share
BJP      155         31.77%
SHS      55          12.60%
INC       24         14.69%
NCP      25          15.72%
Others  29       

The scale of BJP and SHS seat lead over INC and NCP more reflects the uneven nature of the BJP and SHS vote shares where SHS are concentrated in coastal Maharashtra while BJP are relatively concentrated in interior Maharashtra.  Again I disagree with Others being that high as in a 4 way race a lot of various rebels will align with one of the 4 parties. 

Haryana

         Seats     Vote share
BJP      76           43.17%
INC       6           23.79%
INLD     1             2.94%
Others   7                     

 

This mostly matches ABP poll.  I think that the 2 way BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP might not work out as well for the BJP-SHS as polling might imply but BJP-SHS alliance should be headed toward around 180-200 out of 288 seats.  In Hayrana the election is all but over with the only issue being can INC get into double digits in terms of seats
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jaichind
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« Reply #835 on: October 01, 2019, 08:53:10 AM »

In Maharashtra, BJP and SHS have struck a deal but will not disclose the details of the agreement.  The issue here is that many ticket aspirants with one or most likely both sides will be disappointed by the deal and could run as a rebel.  So disclosing the details as late as possible gives these would be rebels less time to run.  In the meantime more INC and NCP leaders are defecting to BJP.  But that just builds up the list of ticket of aspirants that will have to be accommodated. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #836 on: October 02, 2019, 05:52:24 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2019, 12:45:14 PM by jaichind »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/maharashtra-assembly-elections-2019-uddhav-thackeray-devendra-fandnavis-1605390-2019-10-02

In Maharashtra in the end the BJP-SHS seat share is BJP 164 (of which 18 will go to allies like RPI(A) RSPS JSS) and SHS 124.  The SHS climb-down seems to be related to inability to get SHS splinter NMS to return to SHS to give SHS a chance to take on BJP on its own.  A SHS alliance with INC-NCP was ruled out and it was clear that if SHS went on its own that it will end up with less seats than BJP in which case SHS as a party could break.

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jaichind
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« Reply #837 on: October 02, 2019, 11:48:53 AM »

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/haryana-congress-rift-reaches-sonia-gandhis-doorstep-ex-chief-leads-stir-against-corrupt-ticket-distribution-2331173.html

In Haryana, it seems even when face with a likely BJP juggernaut, the factionalism of INC have not subsided between those which are for and againist former INC CM and Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
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jaichind
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« Reply #838 on: October 02, 2019, 12:07:17 PM »

In Maharashtra it seems RPI(A) and RSPS will be part of BJP-SHS alliance.  SS which ran on the BJP symbol in 2014 will also be part of the alliance but it is not clear if they will run on their symbol or still use the BJP symbol.  BJP tactical ally in 2014 JSS will run on their own and not be part of the BJP-SHS alliance.  BJP had hoped that RPI(A) RSPS and SS will all run on the BJP symbol but it seems RPI(A) have rejected this.

Even as the BJP-SHS seat sharing plans are being disclosed slowly the role of CM and DCM after the elections is left as not clarified.  That seems to be a feature and not a bug.  SHS leader  Uddhav Thackeray's son Aaditya Thackeray is running which is a first for the Thackeray family which historically  have projected themselves as above electoral politics.  The SHS's position must be for a rotation of CM between Aaditya Thackeray  and BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis which clearly have been rejected by the CM.  I suspect even SHS's backup plan of Aaditya Thackeray  as DCM have been rejected by BJP.  But plans for CM role after the election is going to be kept hidden for the SHS to be able to explain to its cadres on its climb down on being the junior partner to BJP with the assertion that "Aaditya Thackeray will be made CM" to motivate the SHS cardre and base.    Of course the SHS base will get a big surprise after the elections when Aaditya Thackeray will most likely end up with nothing and BJP running the entire show.
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jaichind
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« Reply #839 on: October 02, 2019, 12:52:19 PM »

In Maharashtra on the opposition side it seems that INC-NCP roped in SP BVA and SWP.  There will most likely be tactical alliances with CPI-CPM while talks are ongoing to get PWPI into the alliance.  It seems any chances of an INC-NCP alliance with VBA is pretty much gone and INC-NCP will have to hope Dalit and Muslim anti-NDA tactical voting will see them through. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #840 on: October 02, 2019, 02:03:20 PM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/govt-bans-onion-export-imposes-stock-limit-on-traders-764896.html

Fearing that rising onion prices could hit BJP chances in the upcoming elections the Indian government has imposed and export ban on onions which is sending onion prices upward at a rapid rate for various importing nations of Indian onions.  The Indian government also imposed on onion wholesalers caps on how much onions they can hold to deal with assertions of "hording."  Overall this is hurting the rural sector, especially rural farm traders and helping urban dwellers.  It sort of shows where the BJP thinks their vote might be weak in the upcoming election.
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« Reply #841 on: October 03, 2019, 07:11:19 AM »

Surely the BJP is so powerful at this point they don't even need Shiv Sena as a partner to get into government?
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jaichind
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« Reply #842 on: October 03, 2019, 11:28:22 AM »

Surely the BJP is so powerful at this point they don't even need Shiv Sena as a partner to get into government?

Well if it is BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP I think BJP wins a plurality but not a majority.  But BJP can then break the SHS post-election and form a government on its own.   

In fact a BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP would destroy INC-NCP long term since it would mean INC and NCP defectors would rush to BJP and perhaps SHS who will hand out tickets.  So even if INC-NCP wins a few extra seats in a 3 way race the long term INC and especially NCP base would be eroded. 

So why is BJP not taking this route?  Well I suspect most Maharashtra state BJP are mostly pushing for this.  It is the national BJP that seems to be taking it safe approach to ensure a large majority.  This difference also because of how the national BJP (read Modi-Shah) and the Maharashtra see the post-2014 BJP surge.  The national BJP sees it as a Modi led realignment so a permanent BJP majority nationally and in Maharashtra  is coming soon so there is no rush to finish off INC-NCP vote base.  The Maharashtra BJP sees the post-2014 BJP surge is partly realignment but also a temporary surge in BJP support on the back of anti-incumbency after 3 terms of INC-NCP state government.  Ergo the Maharashtra BJP is pushing for a path to finish off the INC-NCP vote base when they have the edge which could be fleeting

In the end it seems that the national BJP had its way and an alliance with SHS patched up.  BTW, SHS seems to also believe that this BJP surge is temporary so they choose to hold their head down and accept junior status and wait for its chance to get back on top the next couple if elections cycles.    In the meantime SHS comes out with

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/maharashtra-will-get-a-shiv-sena-cm-aaditya-thackeray-files-nomination-papers-1605854-2019-10-03

"Maharashtra will soon get a Shiv Sena CM, says Aaditya Thackeray as he files nomination papers"

to keep their cadres  motivated even as they now have accepted junior status vis-a-vis BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #843 on: October 03, 2019, 11:32:27 AM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/maharashtra-assembly-polls-rebellion-headache-looms-large-for-bjp-shiv-sena-1605738-2019-10-03

"Maharashtra Assembly polls: Rebellion headache looms large for BJP, Shiv Sena"

Is not a surprise given how many defectors BJP and SHS took in from the opposition in the run up to the election.  With so many local leaders to accommodate within BJP and SHS and now the large number of defectors from INC and NCP, there is no way BJP and SHS can accommodate everyone once they went into an alliance.  if they ran separately then this would work and would in fact pull in another wave of INC and NCP defectors. 

In the 1980s-1990s it was INC vs the rest with INC rebels taking a large bloc of votes and seats.  In think this time it will be BJP-SHS vs the rest with a large number of votes and perhaps seats won by BJP and to some extent SHS rebels.
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« Reply #844 on: October 03, 2019, 11:36:25 AM »

Thanks jaichind

what is the actual electorate of Shiv Sena as opposed to the BJP? I know a bit about the Thackeray cult and how the party was originally based around Marathi interests back in the day, but what niche do they fill that isn't being filled by the saffron party? Is it still just for Marathis who think the state is dominated by Gujratis and Southerners?
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jaichind
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« Reply #845 on: October 03, 2019, 11:45:46 AM »

https://thewire.in/politics/bjp-unethical-behaviour-sad-ally-inld-haryana

"Accusing BJP of ‘Unethical’ Behaviour, SAD Ties up With INLD in Haryana"

Historically SAD has allied with INLD in Haryana even as it is allied with BJP in Punjab.  SAD won a seat in the 2014 Haryana assembly elections as part of its alliance with INLD.  For 2019 with INLD pretty much finished BJP approached SAD for an alliance to rope in the Sikh vote.  SAD agreed to enter into negotiations.  Then for some reason a faction of the Haryana BJP got the sole SAD MLA to join BJP.  Furious, SAD, has decided to restore its alliance with INLD. Of course INLD-SAD is way weaker now than in 2014 let alone the early 2000s.  But this story is another example of the BJP eating into various regional parties.

The main problem with many Indian regional parties are they they were built as an anti-INC forces to take on INC.  So when BJP rose as the main party of India nothing in these regional party DNA allowed it to be able to take on BJP.  There might be a mass extension even for Indian regional parties before a new generation of regional parties that can be formed to take on BJP.  Some might evolve other will die.
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jaichind
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« Reply #846 on: October 04, 2019, 05:54:16 AM »

Thanks jaichind

what is the actual electorate of Shiv Sena as opposed to the BJP? I know a bit about the Thackeray cult and how the party was originally based around Marathi interests back in the day, but what niche do they fill that isn't being filled by the saffron party? Is it still just for Marathis who think the state is dominated by Gujratis and Southerners?

SHS are urban/coastal Marathas.  NCP are rural and interior Marathas.  INC are Muslim and Dalits which are more concentrated in coastal areas.  BJP are Gujaratis, Upper Caste and OBCs.  There is a movement for Vidarbha in far East Maharashtra to form an independent state to get away from domination of Mumbai/Coastal Maharashtra which BJP supports and in turn have shifted toward BJP and away from INC.

SHS base has mostly been the same since the late 1970s although it started as a Maratha regionalist  force and did not embrace Hindu nationalism consistently until the mid 1980s.  In the 1970s SHS backed INC in many cases and even had an alliance with the Muslim IMUL in 1979.  The shift to Hindu nationalism was partly to avoid losing support to BJP in the competition for the OBC vote and outflank the BJP there and still retain its Maratha base.
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jaichind
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« Reply #847 on: October 05, 2019, 07:49:00 PM »

In Maharashtra BJP-SHS announces last details of their alliance only on Oct 4th which is the last day to file nominations to try to prevent BJP and SHS ticket aspirants from filing as an independent rebel due to lack of time.  Overall it did not work as there seems to be a large number of SHS and especially BJP rebels.  It seems lot of old time BJP leaders were denied tickets and the BJP continue to morph into the INC of the 1980s where Modi's job is to fetch votes and you avoid internal feuds by not having mass leaders at the local levels so everyone is dependent on Modi for votes.  It was like this for INC in the 1980s period.

Given the large number of rebels I suspect BJP-SHS will not win this massive majority that they have been claiming (220+ seats out of 288.)  I suspect they will be at 180-200 with INC-NCP at 60-80 with VBA AIMIM and other minor parties winning few seats but at least something like 15 seats won by rebels of all stripes although mostly BJP and SHS rebels.     
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jaichind
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« Reply #848 on: October 06, 2019, 09:20:09 AM »

https://www.opindia.com/2019/10/viral-video-shows-ahmed-patel-asking-where-the-party-has-gone-in-haryana-after-told-about-dismal-internal-survey-results-for-assembly-elections/



It seems in a video of INC leaders including former Haryana INC CM Hooda discussing INC prospects in the Haryana assembly elections Hooda indicates that INC internal survey has INC at 14 out of 90 seats.  If INC can get to that level that would be good result when compared to other public polls.  In the end I suspect INC will get to around 15 seats given the large number of BJP rebels in the fray.  Of course INC has its own share of rebels but the decline of INC does have the advantage that INC rebels have a smaller base as well and will do a lot less damage BJP rebels will do.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #849 on: October 08, 2019, 11:29:50 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/assembly-election-2019/bjp-sena-faces-rebellion-in-30-odd-maharashtra-seats-766879.html

BJP-SHS managed to get a bunch of rebels with withdraw but will face significant rebellion in at least 30 seats.  INC-NCP actually have tactical alliances with some BJP-SHS rebels as well as separate tactical alliances with NMS in some parts of urban coastal Maharashtra
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