2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Once I have a chance to look over all the exit polls I will use my old exit poll to result projection algorithm.

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

[jaichind]

India Today Axis My India Maharashtra exit poll.   Has NDA vs UPA vote share at a closer 45% to 35% with VBA at 6%.  Also has Others which are mostly rebels of all sorts at 27 seats





India Today Axis My India exit poll for Haryana has BJP actually losing ground from 2014 with BJP vs INC vote share at a neck to neck 33% to 32% and JJP at 14%

[jaichind]

ABP C Voter exit poll for Haryana




Has INC actually holding the 2019 LS vote share while JJP eats into the BJP 2019 LS Jat vote.  The result is still a BJP landslide but getting BJP down to 42% is significant

[jaichind]

ABP C Voter exit poll for Maharashtra




NDA-UPA vote share lead is 45%-36%.  Here INC-NCP holds on to their 2019 LS vote but BJP-SHS loses a bunch of votes to rebels of all types.

[jaichind]

From 2019 LS exit poll Republic TV show

The panel of Republic TV to discuss the C-Voter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls looks like the Last Supper

Once again Republic TV has a massive panel which is large enough to run its own parallel Parliment

[jaichind]

Now on to projections based on exit polls based on my algorithm for Maharashtra

First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
-> This step is easy since Todays Chanakya did not come out with an exit poll

All exit polls in descending order

                                NDA        UPA         Others
News 18                    243         41               4
Times Now                230          48             10
Jan Ki Baat                223          54             11
VPDA                         214         59             15
ABP CVoter                204          69             15
TV9 Cicerio                197         75              16
NewsX                       196         83               9
India Today-Axis        181          81             26
--------------------------------------------------------------
Average                    212          64             12

Now picking polls which same pollster had pre-election polls

Pre-election polls
ABP CVoter                194          86               8
Jan Ki Baat                200          77             11
NewsX                       210         49              29

Exit polls
ABP CVoter                204          69             15
Jan Ki Baat                223          54             11
NewsX                      196           83              9

2 out of 3 pollsters saw a move toward NDA and one pollster saw a move toward UPA.  So I read this as a small move toward NDA.  So I would take the average of the 3rd and 4th exit polls which gives us

Projection                 219          56             13

Since this is not a defeat of an incumbent party so there is no need for adjustment in favor of the winning party.

So my algorithm produces for Maharashtra

NDA   219
UPA     56
Others 13  

[jaichind]

Now on to projections based on exit polls based on my algorithm for Haryana

First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
-> This step is easy since Todays Chanakya did not come out with an exit poll

All exit polls in descending order

                          BJP         INC         Others
NewsX                 77           11              2
News 18              75           10              5
VDPA                   74            7              9
Covter                 72            8             10
Times Now           71           11              8
TV9 Cicero           69            11           10
Jan Ki Baat           57           17            16
TV9 Bharat           47           23            20
India Today-Axis   38           36            16
----------------------------------------------------------
Average               64            15           11

Now picking polls which same pollster had pre-election polls

Pre-election polls
NewsX                 76             6              8
Jan Ki Baat           68             8            14


Exit polls
NewsX                 77           11              2
Jan Ki Baat           57           17            16

One of the polls was flat and the other saw a move away from BJP so I would read this is a slight movement away from BJP so I would go with 6th and 7th out of 9 exit poll to give us

Projection            63           14            13

Since this is not a defeat of an incumbent party so there is no need for adjustment in favor of the winning party.

So my algorithm produces for Haryana

BJP      63
INC      14
Others  13 

A key caveat here is the Jan Ki Baat exit poll looks fishy where it gives BJP 56% of the vote to INC's 18% but only 57 out of 90 seats.  One could argue that that exit poll could be read as a movement toward BJP in which case BJP should win around 75 out of 90 seats and not 63.

[jaichind]

India Today My Axis who went out on a limb back in 2019 LS elections to call a massive NDA landslide was proved correct.  Now they are making the opposite call.  Their Maharashtra  exit poll has NDA winning by a smaller margin than other exit polls and with NDA below 200 seats.  Their Haryana exit poll has a shock BJP-INC near draw even though most exit polls has a massive BJP landslide.  We will see Thursday if they win their bet again. 

[jaichind]

The India Today  My Axis exit poll for Haryana that had BJP and INC at neck to neck indicates that the Jat and Dalit vote that voted for Modi in 2019 LS have drifted back toward the opposition.   It has the Dalit vote going back to INC and the Jat vote voting tactically between INC and JJP to defeat BJP. These same voters voted BJP to support the Modi nationalist agenda as well as the NOTA factor in terms of PM candidate.  The Muslim vote of course will mostly go iNC which along with the Dalit and Jat vote would propel INC into a tie with the BJP cornering the non-Jat non-Dalit non-Muslim mostly Upper Caste and OBC vote.   Most other exit polls has the BJP 2019 LS Dalit and Jat vote mostly staying with BJP with along with the BJP core Upper Caste and OBC vote would produce and BJP landslide. 

The Haryana exit polls have high variation for the BJP seat going from almost 80 out of 90 to 32 for India Today My Axis.  This is the largest variation I have seen so the count tonight would be very fun.

In Maharashtra the BJP-SHS victory is clear.  The main outstanding issue are how much BJP and SHS rebels hurt NDA, what the balance of power between BJP and SHS would be, and would NCP win enough seats to avoid disintegration.

[jaichind]

The different Haryana scenarios  put up by different exit polls are interesting.  

We have those that have BJP with a massive vote lead and some Jat tactical voting for INC and JJP leading to a large BJP seat lead but not a total wipe out.

News 18 where a BJP vote share of 50% gets them 75 out of 90 seats.





Then we have those that the BJP with a solid but not massive vote share but failure of Jat tactical voting for INC and JJP leads to a very large BJP seat share

NewsX has BJP vote share of around 43% but seat share of around 77


ABP Cvoter has BJP vote share of 42% but a seat share of 70





Then we have those that have a much lower BJP vote share plus Jat tactical voting for INC and JJP

India Today Axis My India has BJP vote share at 33% and seat share of 38



Then we have the bizarre scenario of Jan Ki Baat  where it has BJP with a monster vote share of 56% but a equally monster INC JJP and INLD Jat vote tactical voting/coordination to drive BJP to around 58 seats.

 



These exit polls are truly all over the place and even respect to vote share to seat share translation.

What is interesting is that the NewsX, ABP-Covter, and India Today Axis My India all have INC+JJP vote share around 45%-46% where the BJP seat count is more about how much rebels (mostly BJP) eats into the BJP vote and the level of Jat anti-BJP tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Counting started.  Still some of the results are postal ballots.  NDA ahead in both state but not by the blow out levels many had expected.

Maharashtra 
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              156                -8
UPA                65                -5
VBA                 0                 --
Others            30              +14 

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  47              -1
INC                 25            +10
INLD+SAD         3             -17
JJP                  12            +12
Others              4               -2

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

More votes coming in so the part of the vote which are postal ballots are going down.  NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              161               -20
UPA                87                +8
VBA                 3                 +3
Others            26                +9

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually gaining versus 2014

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  41              -6
INC                 32            +17
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                    8             +8
Others              7              +1

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD and now below majority territory. 

[jaichind]

More votes coming in so the part of the vote which are postal ballots are going down.  NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              166               -19
 BJP                 105              -17
 SHS                 61                -2
UPA                85               --
 INC                 36                -6
 NCP                47                +6
 CPM                 1                 --
 SP                    1                +1
 SWP                 0                  --
VBA                 4                 +4
Others            30               +13

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually flat vs 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  45              -2
INC                 28            +13
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                    9             +9
Others               6             --

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now very close to losing majority with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              163               -22
 BJP                 104              -18
 SHS                 59                -4
UPA                88                +3
 INC                 36                 -6
 NCP                 50                +9
 CPM                  1                --
 SP                    1                 --
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                6                +6
Others           30              +13

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually flat vs 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  41              -6
INC                 29            +14
INLD+SAD         1             -19
JJP                    9             +9
Others             10             +4

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now lost its majority with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

In Haryana it seems that BJP is trying to reach out to JJP to get JJP to back BJP post election.  JJP seems to be sending messages to INC to try to form a JJP-INC post-election alliance to form a government. 

[jaichind]

India Today Axis My India exit polls seems to be on the spot.  They had NDA well below 200 in Maharashtra and they had BJP not getting majority in Haryana.  Both seem to be true so far.

[jaichind]

ECI vote share so far

Maharashtra
(VBA is a new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
NDA       43.8%
  BJP        26.7%
  SHS       17.1%
UPA       32.7%
  INC        15.1%
  NCP       16.8%
  CPM         0.4%
  SP           0.4%
NMS      2.6%
BSP       0.8%
AIMIM    0.8%

Haryana
(JJP is new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
BJP           35.5%
INC           28.4%
INLD-SAD   2.8%
BSP            3.2%

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              168               -17
 BJP                 101              -21
 SHS                 66                +3
UPA                83                -2
 INC                  34                -8
 NCP                 48                +7
 CPM                  0                 -1
 SP                    1                 --
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                4                +4
Others           30              +13

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually flat vs 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  37             -10
INC                 33            +18
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                  10            +10
Others              7             +1

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now lost its majority with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

Looks like BJP is now scrambling in Haryana to try to form government and have canceled their victory celebrations there.   

[jaichind]

SHS is now in a much stronger position vis-a-vis BJP in Maharashtra if these trends hold.  SHS will now demand CM post and most likely will get a DCM post much to the anger of the local BJP.

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              161               -24
 BJP                  94               -28
 SHS                 67                +4
UPA                96               +11
 INC                  41                -1
 NCP                 52              +11
 CPM                  1                 --
 SP                    2                 +1
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                4                +4
Others           26               +9

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually gained versus 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  42              -5
INC                 28            +13
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                  10            +10
Others              8             +2

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now short of majority by a few seats with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

ECI vote share so far

Maharashtra
(VBA is a new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
NDA       43.4%
  BJP        26.4%
  SHS       17.0%
UPA       32.4%
  INC        15.0%
  NCP       16.7%
  CPM         0.4%
  SP           0.3%
NMS      2.5%
BSP       0.8%
AIMIM    1.1%

Haryana
(JJP is new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
BJP           36.1%
INC           28.7%
INLD-SAD   2.9%
BSP            3.1%

Vote share mostly stable now.  It seems that rebels of all types did well.  VBA and JJP in Maharashtra and Haryana clearly won a good chunk of the vote, especially JJP.

[jaichind]

The 3 parties that did well in this election relative to expectations are JJP (it showed that it is the real INLD in Haryana), NCP (it survived the BJP attempt to destroy the party), and SHS (it has the leverage over the BJP now to gain a large part of power within the BJP-SHS government).  Another winner is Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana where he was put in charge of INC campaign and turned it around and avoided a complete meltdown.

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              160               -25
 BJP                  96               -26
 SHS                 64                +1
UPA                99               +14
 INC                  43               +1
 NCP                 53              +12
 CPM                  1                 --
 SP                    2                 +1
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                2                +2
Others           26               +9 (15 IND, 2 NMS, 2 BVA, 2 AIMIM, 1 BSP 1 PWPI, 3 minor)

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually gained versus 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  41              -6
INC                 29            +14
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                  11            +11
Others              7             +1 (6 IND 1 LSP(BJP Jat splinter))

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now short of majority by a few seats with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[Snipee356]

After the exit polls I was really concerned that India was veering into one-party-rule status even at the statewide level. I'm glad my fears have been staved off at least for the time being.