2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[Snipee356]

How likely is it that Congress forms the government in Haryana? The later trends seem to be moving in their favour.

Edit: Congress has caught up with BJP. 35-35

[jaichind]

How likely is it that Congress forms the government in Haryana? The later trends seem to be moving in their favour.

Edit: Congress has caught up with BJP. 35-35

JJP will go with BJP if it comes down to it.   After all JJP leader Dushyant Chautala's father Ajay Singh Chautala have been convicted for corruption and estranged grandfather Om Prakash Chautala  is behind bars for corruption.  JJP would want to ally with the party in power at the center.  Only real way that BJP does not form government is if INC backs JJP's Dushyant Chautala to be CM.  But even that is the repeat of Karnataka 2018 where INC backed JD(S) to form the government it ended up in a fiasco AND there is no way INC Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda would back another Jat to be CM lest his Jat base shift over to JJP.

Another INC CM scenario would be the fact that several of JJP's MLAs are actually pro-Bhupinder Singh Hooda INC rebels that could defect back.  I doubt this would go anywhere as these pro-Bhupinder Singh Hooda MLA would have to look out for themselves and not put INC's interest above their own.

[jaichind]

Enough votes have been counted on ECI to use ECI seat count

Mahabharata

                Win/ahead            Vote share
NDA               157                     42.4%
 BJP                   100                     25.3%
 SHS                    57                     17.1%
UPA                101                     33.1%
 INC                    43                     15.7%
 NCP                    55                     16.7%
 SP                       2                        0.3%
 CPM                     1                       0.4%
 SWP                    0
IND                13                    ~14.8%   (mostly BJP and SHS rebels)
VBA                  1                       3.5% (from NDTV)
NMS                 1                        2.4%
AIMIM               3                       1.4%
BSP                  0                        0.9%
BVA                  3                                 (pro-UPA)
JSS                   1                                (pro-NDA)
PWPI                1                                 (pro-UPA)
RSP                  1                                 (pro-NDA)
Minors              4

It seems that various rebels (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) ate into the 2019 LS NDA vote share in a significant way

Haryana

                Win/ahead            Vote share
BJP                  39                    36.2%
INC                 32                     28.2%
JJP                  10                     14.9% (from NDTV)
INLD-SAD         1                       2.6%
IND                  7                      ~13% (mostly BJP rebels)
HLP                  1                      (INLD splinter)

Again, rebels of all stripes but mostly BJP rebels ate into the 2019 LS BJP vote.

[jaichind]

Subhash Barala, BJP president of Haryana has resigned 

[jaichind]

Overall the INC ran a disastrous, leaderless and disorganized campaign.  These results shows how much the BJP could have been damaged had the INC bother to get organized and try to defeat BJP, especially in Maharashtra.   Had INC merely endorsed NCP's Sharad Pawar as the leader of UPA in Maharashtra the UPA performance could have been even better and in retrospect could have denied NDA a majority.   

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Satara LS by-election  - NCP mostly preserved its base.  The BJP candidate is the NCP winner from 2019 LS election that defected to BJP only to lose in the by-election

NCP  51.3%
BJP   43.6%
VBA    1.4%

In 2019 LS election

NCP  51.9%
SHS  40.6%
VBA    3.6%


Bihar Samastipur LS by-elections - Modi wave recedes as INC gains ground from LJP

LJP    49.5%
INC   36.5%
JAP      1.9% (RJD splinter)

In 2019 LS election

LJP    55.2%
INC   30.5%

[jaichind]

In Haryana it seems that JJP's Dushyant Chautala has decided to back BJP to form government.  Not a surprise given the corruption cases against his family.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra SHS demands 50/50 split of power and for BJP and SHS to share CM post with each getting 2.5 years as CM.  I assume that this demand would be BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis going on for 2.5 years and then SHS Aditya Thackeray being CM for the next 2.5 years.  BJP is evasive.

To show that SHS means business SHS is congratulating NCP and INC on their better than expected performance.

[jaichind]

ECI count - some but not a lot of seats which are not called yet so vote share are going to be stable with a slight shift in seats going forward

Mahabharata

                Win/ahead            Vote share
NDA               160                     42.2%
 BJP                   103                     25.7%
 SHS                    57                     16.5%
UPA                101                     33.1%
 INC                    46                     15.8%
 NCP                    53                     16.7%
 SP                       2                        0.2%
 CPM                     1                       0.4%
 SWP                    0
IND                13                    ~15.1%   (mostly BJP and SHS rebels)
VBA                  0                       3.5% (from NDTV)
NMS                 1                        2.3% (SHS splinter)
AIMIM               2                       1.4%
BSP                  0                        0.9%
BVA                  3                                 (pro-UPA)
JSS                   1                                (pro-NDA)
PWPI                1                                 (pro-UPA)
RSP                  1                                 (pro-NDA)
PJP                   2                                 (SHS splinter)
KSP                  1                                 (NCP splinter)
It seems that various rebels (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) ate into the 2019 LS NDA vote share in a significant way

Haryana

                Win/ahead            Vote share
BJP                  40                    36.5%
INC                 31                     28.1%
JJP                  10                     14.9% (from NDTV)
INLD-SAD         1                       2.8%
BSP                  0                       4.1%
IND                  7                     ~12.4% (mostly BJP rebels)
HLP                  1                      (INLD splinter)

Again, rebels of all stripes but mostly BJP rebels ate into the 2019 LS BJP vote.

[jaichind]

To counter SHS's aggressive posture BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis claims that he is in touch with various independents (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) and minor party MLAs (I assume parties like JSS RSP plus various splinter parties).  Of course from a numbers point of view this does not work since UPA-SHS will have a clear majority of seats.  In fact UPA seat count is about the same as BJP leaving SHS holding the balance of power.  In this case the SHS threat to go with UPA could be empty since such a move might split SHS (as well as INC) but nevertheless BJP rounding out various independents and minor party MLAs does not get it a majority without SHS.

[jaichind]

In the various assembly by-elections it seems NDA did worse than expected.  I will have to dig into details but in Bihar, UP, and Gujarat NDA lost ground when the ruling party should gain ground in assembly by-elections.  In other states the ruling party retained or gained ground as expected like TN, Punjab MP and so on.  In Assam it did seem that INC lost ground to BJP as the Hindu vote continue to consolidate behind BJP while the Muslim vote consolidates behind INC in INC-BJP seats. But that still has BJP winning.   

[jaichind]

Bihar assembly by-elections has JD(U) losing ground despite being the ruling party which means that it should gain ground in assembly by-elections.

Kishanganj (heavy Muslim district)
AIMIM        41.5%
BJP            35.5% (backed by JD(U)-LJP)
INC           14.9% (backed by RJD-RLSP-HAM-VIP)

2015
INC          38.8% (backed by RJD-JD(U)
BJP           33.8% (backed by LJP-RLSP-HAM)
AIMIM        9.6%
NCP           4.7%

BJP vote share fail to rise relative to 2015 despite having JD(U) support


Simri Bakhtiarpur
RJD          42.4% (backed by INC-RLSP-HAM)
JD(U)       33.2% (backed by BJP-LJP)
VIP          15.0%

2015
JD(U)       47.5% (backed by RJD-INC)
LJP          24.6% (backed by BJP-RLSP-HAM)

Despite split in UPA with VIP running separately JD(U) with BJP support  saw a large drop in support


Daraundha
BJP rebel   36.5%
JD(U)        17.1% (backed by BJP-LJP)
RJD           14.9% (backed by INC-RLSP-HAM)
RJD rebel   12.3%

2015
JD(U)       43.7% (backed by RJD-INC)
BJP          35.0% (backed by LJP-RLSP-HAM)
RJD rebel   4.4%

BJP rebel defeated official NDA candidate


Nathnagar
JD(U)      37.3% (backed by BJP-LJP)
RJD         33.9% (backed by INC-RLSP-VIP)
INC rebel  9.0% 
HAM         4.2%

2015
JD(U)     39.2% (backed by RJD-INC)
LJP         34.6% (backed by BJP-RLSP-HAM)
JAP          5.1% (RJD splinter)

JD(U) despite getting BJP-LJP support lost support and only won because of the split in the UPA vote with INC rebel and HAM in the fray


Belhar
RJD         50.8% (backed by INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP)
JD(U)      38.0% (backed by BJP-LJP)

2015
JD(U)      44.5% (backed by RJD-INC)
BJP         34.3% (backed by LJP-RLSP-HAM)
JMM         6.6%

JD(U) lost support and the seat to RJD despite gaining BJP-LJP support

[jaichind]

In the Maharashtra INC former CM  Vilasrao Deshmukh pocket bough of Latur Rural, NOTA came in second as his son won by a massive landslide

INC    67.6%
NOTA  13.8%
SHS     6.8%
VBA     6.5%

I think this is the first time NOTA came in second 

[jaichind]

Gujarat assembly by-elections.  BJP also lost ground here despite being the ruling party and 2 INC defectors running on BJP ticket for their old seat were defeated by INC

Tharad
INC             48.6%
BJP             44.3%
NCP              1.1%

2017
BJP             39.3%
INC             32.7%
INC rebel     24.2%

INC gaining back support for 2017 INC rebel allowed INC to capture this seat


Kheralu
BJP            62.8%
INC            32.8%
NCP             1.8%

2017
BJP            42.2%
BJP rebel    27.1%
INC            27.0%

BJP regained support that the 2017 BJP rebel took away


Amraiwadi
BJP             50.2%
INC             42.5%

2017
BJP             62.5%
INC            33.1%

INC clearly gained ground here since 2017


Lunawada
BJP             49.0%
INC             40.3%
NCP              9.0%

2017
BJP rebel    32.1%
BJP            30.2%
INC            27.4%

2017 BJP rebel winner rejoined BJP and went on to win in 2019 LS elections provoking this by-election.    INC clearly was able to gain ground since 2017


Radhanpur
INC           45.5%
BJP           43.3%
NCP            4.2%

2017
INC          48.8%
BJP          40.3%

2017 INC winner defected to BJP and ran as BJP candidate but was defeated by INC


Bayad
INC          46.5%
BJP          45.9%
NCP           2.9%

2017
INC          51.5%
BJP          46.3%

2017 INC winner defected to BJP and ran as BJP candidate but was defeated by INC

[jaichind]

UPA doing better than expected in Haryana and Maharashtra points to a medium term strategy for INC while they build up a national brand that can take on Modi which will be one or two election cycles away.  In the meantime what the INC stumbled into was to organize INC as a franchise where local INC or UPA  leaders become the face of the party and INC High command takes a hands off approach.  In this case INC High Command is in such shambles that they sort of had to execute this strategy which produced unexpected positive results.  This strategy does not defeat the BJP at the national level but does preserve INC to fight another day versus dying off as a party as it seems possible after the 2019 LS elections.

[jaichind]

ECI count  - we are pretty much done.  A couple of seats still outstanding in Maharashtra but unlikely to flip  

Mahabharata

                Win/ahead            Vote share
NDA               161                     42.2%
 BJP                   105                     25.8%
 SHS                    56                     16.4%
UPA                101                     33.2%
 INC                    44                     15.9%
 NCP                    54                     16.7%
 SP                       2                        0.2%
 CPM                     1                       0.4%
 SWP                    0
IND                13                     ~13.0%   (mostly BJP and SHS rebels)
VBA                  0                       3.5% (from NDTV)
NMS                 1                        2.3% (SHS splinter)
AIMIM               2                       1.3%
BSP                  0                        0.9%
BVA                  3                                 (pro-UPA)
JSS                   1                                (pro-NDA)
PWPI                1                                 (pro-UPA)
RSPS                1                                 (pro-NDA)
PJP                   2                                 (SHS splinter)
KSP                  1                                 (NCP splinter)
It seems that various rebels (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) ate into the 2019 LS NDA vote share in a significant way

Haryana

                Win/ahead            Vote share
BJP                  40                    36.5%
INC                 31                     28.1%
JJP                  10                     14.9% (from NDTV)
INLD-SAD         1                       2.8%
BSP                  0                       4.1%
IND                  7                     ~12.0% (mostly BJP rebels)
HLP                  1                      (INLD splinter)

Again, rebels of all stripes but mostly BJP rebels ate into the 2019 LS BJP vote.

[jaichind]

UP assembly assembly by-elections were also a disappointment to BJP given the fact that SP BSP INC all contested separately and should have given the BJP easy wins in most if not all the seats.  Also the BJP is the ruling party so the by-elections should work in their favor

Overall SP and to some extent INC gained vote share relative to 2017 while BJP and BSP lost ground.

Gangoh
BJP           30.4%
INC           28.0%
SP            25.6%
BSP          14.4%

2017
BJP           38.6%
INC           23.9%
SP            18.4%
BSP          17.4%

In 2017 SP-INC failed to form an alliance in this seat so it was 4 way back in 2017 as well.  BJP clearly lost ground since 2017.   Some sort of INC-SP alliance could have beaten BJP


Rampur
SP            49.1%
BJP          44.3%
INC            2.6%
BSP           2.1%

2017
SP            47.5% (backed by INC)
BJP           25.7%   
BSP          25.2%

BJP clearly gained ground by anti-BJP forces also consolidated to defeat BJP


Iglas
BJP          51.7%
BSP         34.0%
INC           7.4%
LD             3.3% (SP splinter)
SP             0.7%

2017
BJP          54.8%   
BSP         22.8%
RLD         12.1%
INC           9.0% (backed by SP)

2019 by-election RLD candidate papers were denied.  Still BJP lost a bit of ground since 2017


Lucknow Cantt
BJP          51.0%
SP           19.1%
INC         17.5%
BSP           9.6%

2017
BJP         50.9%
SP          32.9% (backed by INC)
BSP        13.9%   

Mostly status quo election with BJP support flat


Govindnagar
BJP         50.1%
INC        32.4%
SP            9.9%
BSP          4.5%

2017
BJP       60.5%
INC       21.9% (backed by SP)
BSP       15.5%   

BJP lost ground to INC and SP


Manikpur
BJP       37.4%
SP        30.2%
BSP       21.6%
INC        4.7%

2017
BJP       43.7%
INC       20.8% (backed by SP)
BSP       16.7%   
BMP        5.0% (Dalit based party)

BJP clearly lost ground to SP.  SP-BSP alliance potentially could have beaten BJP


Pratapgarh
AD(S)    35.5% (backed by BJP)
SP         15.6%
AIMIM   13.6%
INC       13.2%
BSP       12.6%

2017
AD(S)   43.7% (backed by BJP)
SP        25.0% (backed by INC)
BSP      22.6%

BJP backed AD(S) lost ground but still won due to splintered opposition


Zaidpur
SP        35.3%
BJP       33.4%
INC      19.9%
BSP        8.2%

2017
BJP       43.3%
INC       32.0%
BSP      18.8%   
SP          1.7%   

In 2017 INC and SP failed to have an alliance here but most of the SP-INC vote went to the INC candidate.  This time BJP lost ground and part of the anti-BJP vote consolidated around SP to defeated BJP despite splintered opposition.


Jalalpur
SP        31.6%
BSP      31.3%
BJP       27.6%
INC        1.1%

2017
BSP      37.5%
BJP       32.1%   
SP        24.4% (backed by INC)

BJP support did not change but there was a strong from BSP to SP for SP to win the seat over BSP


Balha
BJP       48.3%
SP        23.3%
BSP      17.1%
JAP        2.6% (RJD splinter, Yadav based)
INC        0.7%

2017
BJP       51.5%
BSP      28.4%   
SP        14.5% (backed by INC)

Both BJP and BSP lost some ground to SP


Ghosi
BJP       31.0%
Ind(SP) 30.2%
BSP       23.0%
INC        5.3%

2017
BJP      36.5%
BSP      33.6%   
SP        24.5% (backed by INC)

BJP lost ground and almost lost the seat to SP.  Due to paperwork issues the SP candidate had to register as an independent and most likely would have beaten the BJP candidate if he had the SP symbol to his name.

[jaichind]

Assam assembly by-election is very positive for BJP.  Even though as the ruling party the BJP is expected to gain ground in by-elections, the scale of the BJP surge indicates that the Hindu vote are consolidating around BJP and the Muslim vote are consolidating around INC in seats where it is BJP-INC seats and not AIUDF-INC seats.  This means that 2019 LS realignment has staying power and is fairly positive for BJP-AGP-BPF retaining power in Assam in 2021.

To some extent Assam is the worst of both worlds for INC.  Increase in Muslim population is triggering complete Hindu consolidation around BJP but the increase in the Muslim population is in a narrow set of districts leading to a majority of seats as Hindu majority which will all go BJP.

Ratabari
BJP           59.2% (backed by AGP)
INC          38.4%

2016
BJP           48.3% (backed by AGP)
INC           26.4%
AIUDF       21.4%

AIUDF did not run to de facto support which merely triggered a Hindu consolidation behind BJP


Jania (heavy Muslim district)
AIUDF       54.4%
INC           31.0%
BJP           10.2% (backed by AGP)

2016
INC           56.7%
AIUDF       37.3%   
BJP             4.0% (backed by AGP)

BJP did grow and gained some Hindu vote as AIUDF get a swing of Muslim votes away from INC to win


Rangapara
BJP          66.3% (backed by AGP)
INC         24.3%
CPM          5.0%

2016
BJP          44.8% (backed by AGP)   
INC         24.8%
AIUDF      11.5%
CPM          7.0%

AIUDF did not run to consolidate Muslim votes behind INC which merely triggered a Hindu consolidation around BJP


Sonari
BJP          54.6% (backed by AGP)
INC         42.0%

2016
BJP          57.2% (backed by AGP)
INC          38.4%

This is in Upper Assam where the Muslim population is low.  Here the threat of Mulsim population growth is lower and as a result INC actually gained a bit of ground in a losing effort.  

[jaichind]

Punjab assembly by-elections has INC gaining ground as expected.  Does not mean INC will win re-election in the 2022 election but it is in a position to win.


Phagwara
INC           47.6%
BJP            22.3% (backed by SAD)
BSP           15.5%
AAP             2.8%

2017
BJP           35.0% (backed by SAD)
INC          33.5%
AAP          24.9%
BSP            4.7%

INC gained from AAP and BJP to gain this seat.


Mukerian
INC           46.6%
BJP           43.7%
AAP            7.1%

2017
INC           41.8%
BJP           24.8%
BJP rebel   15.1%
AAP          12.5%
BSP            2.0%

The 2017 BJP rebel now runs for BJP but even the unified BJP vote was not able to prevent a INC increase in support to still win.


Dakha
SAD         50.3% (backed by BJP)
INC          39.2%
LIP            6.4%
AAP           2.1%

2017
AAP         40.3% (backed by LIP)
SAD         37.4% (backed by BJP)
INC          19.5%

INC gained support by a large margin but not enough to defeat SAD as both gained from AAP.  LIP-AAP alliance breaking also served to drive AAP-LIP votes toward SAD and INC despite the fact that AAP won back in 2017.


Jalalabad
INC         49.3%
SAD        38.5% (backed by BJP)
AAP           7.3%
INC rebel   3.8%

2017
SAD        44.5% (backed by BJP)
AAP        33.6%
INC         18.7%

INC gained a large swing from both SAD and AAP to capture the seat.

[pikachu]

Any particular reason why the NDA struggled in this round of elections? Is the economy finally biting back at them?

[jaichind]

Any particular reason why the NDA struggled in this round of elections? Is the economy finally biting back at them?

I think it is the deteriorating rural economy, a state election where the Modi NOTA factor is not in play, and a BJP attempt to finish off the opposition by building a coalition of everyone finding that it cannot accommodate everyone in its now super big tent party with the result being large number of rebels that undermined its own official candidates.

[jaichind]

I calculated my own Haryana non-NOTA vote shares

2019 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                31               28.23%

INC rebel                        1                 2.49%

RJD            7                  0                 0.26% (INC splinter)

INLD+       84                 1                 2.84% (SAD part of INLD+)

INLD rebel                      1                 1.42%

HLP            5                  1                 0.66% (INLD splinter)

JJP            87               10                14.92% (INLD splinter)

JJP rebel                        0                  0.29%

BJP           90               40                36.69%

BJP rebel                       5                  4.34%

LSP           66                0                  1.25% (BJP Jat splinter)

SHS rebel                     0                  0.18%

BSP          87                0                  4.17%

AAP          46                0                  0.48%

The Greater INC bloc (INC, INC splinters, INC rebels) vote share actually fell from 2014 just like the Greater BJP bloc (BJP, BJP splinters, BJP rebels) vote share actually rose from 2014 but since the INC is mostly united with no splinter the INC seat share went up while BJP lost seats.



Orange - BJP
Blue - INC
Yellow - JJP

[jaichind]

Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar is set to return to power.  INLD splinters JJP and HLP as well as various BJP rebels have all pledged to support the BJP to form a government.   Given BJP aversion to unstable majorities, on the medium run the BJP will look to have the BJP rebels rejoin BJP as well as trying to break JJP and HLP to have their MLA join BJP.

[jaichind]

Kerela assembly by-elections are mixed but somewhat negative for LDF since one would expect the ruling bloc to main gains.   Instead it has UDF and BJP gaining support all things equal although in some cases LDF gained.

All things equal for the by-election result to be mixed versus the ruling bloc generally gaining bodes ill for the LDF in the 2021 assembly election

Manjeshwar

IUML            40.2% (UDF)
BJP              35.2% (backed by BDJS)
CPM             23.5% (LDF)

2016
IUML            35.9% (UDF)
BJP              35.9% (bakced by BDJS)
CPM             26.9% (LDF)

LDF lost ground to UDF


Eranakulam
INC               42.1% (UDF)
Ind(CPM)      38.0% (LDF)
BJP               14.9% (backed by BDJS)

2016
INC               52.8% (UDF)
CPM              32.7%   (LDF)
BJP               13.6% (backed by BDJS)

LDF gained from UDF


Aroor
INC               44.9% (UDF)
CPM              43.5% (LDF)
BJP               10.5% (backed by BDJS)

2016
CPM               52.6% (LDF)
INC               28.7%(UDF)
BDJS             17.2% (backed by BJP)

UDF gained from both LDF and BJP to gain the seat


Konni
CPM               39.0% (LDF)
INC                31.8% (UDF)
BJP                28.7% (backed by BDJS)

2016
INC                51.0% (UDF)
CPM               36.5%(LDF)
BJP                11.7% (backed by BDJS)

BJP support surged and ate into the UDF vote leading to LDF taking the seat.


Vattiyoorkavu
CPM               44.3% (LDF)
INC                42.6% (UDF)
BJP                22.2% (backed by BDJS)

2016
INC               37.7% (UDF)
BJP                32.1% (backed by BDJS)
CPM               29.7% (LDF)

Both UDF and LDF gained from BJP but with LDF taking the seat from UDF.

[jaichind]

Assembly by-elections in the 3 states that INC just capture end of 2018 has INC mostly holding or growing a bit of ground.  At this stage one should expect INC to gain ground given that it is the ruling party so soon after winning power.  INC made gains in Rajasthan but that state is fairly elastic so one cannot read too much into it.  These results show that in 2023 could be a though fight for INC to retain power in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan


Chitrakot (Chhattisgarh)
INC          47.3%
BJP          33.7%
JCC            5.0%

2018
INC          50.7%   
BJP           36.3%
JCC            6.1% (backed by BSP)

Mostly status quo


Jhabua (MP)
INC          55.8%
BJP          39.7%

2018
BJP           39.2%
INC           33.0%
INC rebel   21.2%   

INC was able to gain back the vote share lost to 2018 rebel to take the seat from BJP


Mandawa (Rajasthan)
INC          59.3%
BJP           38.1%

2018
BJP          49.0%
INC          47.6%

INC gets a swing from BJP to win the seat


Khinwsar
RLP          49.8% (backed by BJP)
INC          46.9%

2018
RLP          45.2% (BJP Jat splinter)
INC          36.0%
BJP           14.6%

RLP is a is a BJP Jat splinter that INC should have roped in as an ally after the 2018 assembly elections.  Due to infighting within INC, BJP was able to step in and gain RLP as an ally despite its role as a BJP splinter.  RLP was able to merge its support with the BJP vote and hold the seat against a swing toward INC.