2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

After being invited by the governor to form government in Maharashtra, BJP handed the mandate back saying it could not form a majority.  Now it is not clear what the governor will do. It could invite SHS as the second largest party or it could invite INC-NCP.  Overall it seems NCP is leaning toward backing a SHS government while INC is splint on the issue.  Most likely what the BJP is hoping for is a SHS attempt to form government fail and then have to crawl back to the BJP. 

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand BJP has started to announce candidates while talks continues with AJSU.  In 2014 the seat distribution was BJP 72 AJSU 8 LJP 1.  This time around AJSU had demanded 20+ seats but have scaled down their demand to 15.  The BJP, fearing losses in the tribal vote might accept a higher AJSU seat allocation but was hoping it would be something like 10.  LJP is likely to get 1 or 2 seats. 

Meanwhile HAM have left the UPA alliance in Bihar and will be running separately in Jharkhand.  HAM have some strength in Mahadalits in Bihar but is mostly a non-entity in Jharkhand so while this development will be a blow to the RJD-INC alliance in Bihar its impact in Jharkhand will be tiny.  What is more worrying for JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand is that RJD does not seem happy with its allocation of 7 seats  and is not coming out to endorse this deal. 

[jaichind]

What is funny about the situation in Maharashtra is how the BJP shot itself in the foot.   The was always a significant but minority pro-BJP faction within NCP.  In the 1999 assembly elections where it was INC vs NCP vs SHS-BJP and no party/bloc emerged with a majority NCP chief and Sharad Pawar and the pro-BJP wing of the NCP wanted to back SHS-BJP to form the government but was stopped by the even larger anti-BJP faction within NCP.  So in theory given the fact that SHS will not play ball what the BJP could do is to threaten to do a deal with NCP to get the SHS to come crawling back.  This is what pretty much took place in 2014.   

But for the 2019 Maharashtra assembly election in order to make sure the BJP comes close to on its own to majority the BJP inducted en masse the entire pro-BJP set of NCP leaders many of whom actually LOST in the election but could have won had they stayed in NCP.  So pretty much the entire pro-BJP faction of NCP was gone. Furthermore by poaching from the NCP in an attempt to break NCP, the BJP burned bridges even from the parts of the NCP that was sort of neutral on BJP. 

So while SHS and INC are busy putting their MLA in guarded 5 star hotels and taking away their smart phones the NCP is not taking as much precaution since they know that their MLAs are all pretty much anti-BJP and will not support BJP no matter what price the BJP might name.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/maharashtra-governor-invites-shiv-sena-to-form-government/articleshow/71995275.cms

"Maharashtra governor invites Shiv Sena to form government"

It is said that NCP will back SHS if SHS exits from NDA.  Maharashtra INC is for backing SHS but INC High Command (Sonia Gandhi) seems to be opposed.  Of course if INC just abstains, SHS+NCP plus a bunch of independents could outnumber BJP plus pro-BJP independents.   

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/shiv-sena-mp-arvind-sawant-to-quit-as-union-minister/articleshow/72000245.cms

SHS sole member of the Union cabinet quits in preparation for a possible SHS departure from NDA to form a SHS government with INC-NCP support.  NCP seems willing while INC seems divided on this issue.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra it seems NCP leader  Sharad Pawar has been deployed by Maharashtra INC to speak to Sonia Gandhi to convince her to back a INC-NCP support of SHS government.  What is ironic is that back in the mid 1980s when Sharad Pawar led ICS which was the main opposition to the INC government re-joined INC saying that he had to stop  the surge of SHS in Maharashtra.  Now he is lobbying INC to back a SHS government. 

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ncp-gets-governors-invite-after-shiv-sena-fails-to-show-numbers-top-developments/articleshow/72013039.cms

In a fast paced set of developments, SHS have handed back its mandate to the governor after it failed to get INC support for a SHS government.   The governor immediately asked NCP, the third largest party, to try to form a government.   If NCP failed then President's rule will be imposed with some more time for horse trading and potentially new elections.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra put under Presidents rule.   SHS goes to SC to overturn this as INC seems to be becoming open to working with SHS along with NCP.

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand AJSU is playing hardball with BJP by naming 12 candidates.  AJSU wants 15 seats and at least 12 while BJP will only agree to 9.  Most likely they will end up having a tactical alliance versus a full one.  BJP Bihar allies LJP and JD(U) will also run separately.  JD(U) has a small base in Jharkhand while LJP has no real base.

[jaichind]

In Karnataka the SC ruled that the 17 INC JD(S) defectors were legally disqualified but could run in the by-election.  Most likely BJP will nominate most if not all of them. Main problem is that this will create a bunch of BJP rebels that will run as an independent or even join INC to run.  INC and JD(S) will run separately.    Voting will be Dec 5th and counting Dec 9th.    This mega by-election is not as critical because even if the BJP fail to win enough seats to keep its majority the JD(S) will come and support the BJP.  But if the INC can form such an alliance it will only help INC on the long run.

[bigic]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1195015343934230528

[jaichind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1195015343934230528

Yeah but the real agreement is yet to come which is how to share power.  Will it be SHS and NCP CM with 2.5 year rotation.  Would INC accept not having a INC CM.  It might be a 3 way power sharing with INC NCP and SHS CM each at the helm 1.66 years. This just represents that all 3 parties agree to start real negotiations on power sharing to keep BJP out.   The main risk for SHS is if SHS does not get enough share of power out of this then there might be mass SHS defection to BJP.

[jaichind]

Funny stories from Jharkhand  elections.

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/jharkhand-elections-brother-kills-brother-their-wives-contest-against-each-other-in-polls-1618681-2019-11-14

Jharkhand elections: Brother kills brother, their wives contest against each other

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/bjp-mla-to-contest-against-his-wife-in-jharkhand-775960.html

BJP MLA to contest against his wife in Jharkhand


What took place here was the INC MLA for  Jharia,  Niraj Singh, was defeated by his cousin and BJP candidate Sanjeev Singh in 2014.  Afterwards Niraj Singh became deputy mayor of the city and became very popular and was viewed as a major threat to retake the seat from his cousin and current BJP MLA Sanjeev Singh.  So Sanjeev Singh arranged for have is cousin and political rival murdered  in 2017 which got him to be behind bars on murder charges.  So now the wives of both cousins and political rivals will run against each other as the INC and BJP candidates respectively.


Now, a further complication is the BJP MLA behind bars  Sanjeev Singh


Is angry that the BJP nominated his wife and not himself.  He then arranged to get a parole from jail and now will run as a BJP rebel against his wife as BJP candidate  and the INC candidate who is the wife of the cousin he allegedly murdered.

Note: this might be a feature and not a bug.  This "rebellion" might have been drummed up by BJP and   Sanjeev Singh so that the BJP and distance from himself while now both he and his wife can campaign (with now double the spending cap since there are two candidates) with the local BJP base being told to vote  Sanjeev Singh and not the official BJP candidate which is  Sanjeev Singh's wife.

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand the BJP-AJSU alliance has pretty much broken down where BJP will pretty much contest almost all 81 seats and AJSU will also contest a large number of seats.  So the entire NDA of Bihar-Jharkhand has broken up in the upcoming assembly election where BJP, JD(U), LJP and AJSU will contest separately.  There also seems to be some unrest within the BJP where BJP CM Raghubar Das who leads the BJP OBC bloc is at odds with former CM and leader of the BJP tribal bloc Arjun Munda.  It seems the the BJP High command has pretty much decided to sideline both and just have Modi be the face of the BJP in the upcoming election.

In many ways the BJP is learning lessons from the disappointing Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections.  Both had a BJP CM who was not from the dominate community (Jats in Haryana and Marathas in Maharashtra) which in turn seems to pushed the dominate community into anti-BJP tactical voting.  Both the BJP took on a lot of opposition leaders which led to a lot of BJP rebels and in Maharashtra squeezing in SHS as an ally merely created yet another bloc of BJP and SHS rebels.

So now with those lessons in mind, the BJP decided to contest separately from AJSU so their own leaders and imported opposition leader can coexist with more tickets to distribute and hope that AJSU cuts into the opposition vote as much as the BJP vote.  Also since the  BJP CM Raghubar Das has alienated the dominate tribals just have Modi be the face of the BJP and hope that running this election as a national election would work.  But if the electorate votes more on local issues when without a CM face for the BJP and JMM-INC-RJD projecting former JMM CM Hemant Soren as their CM face could hit the BJP and lead the a fractured mandate.   

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/shiv-sena-ncp-congress-will-form-government-in-maharashtra-it-will-run-for-5-years-sharad-pawar-2132990

Sena-NCP-Congress Will Form Government, Will Run Full Term: Sharad Pawar

NCP leader Sharad Pawar claims that SHS-NCP-INC government will be formed soon and will last 5 years.  Former BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis says this government will not last 6 months

[jaichind]

It seems that the SHS-NCP-INC alliance CM will be from SHS.  INC is pushing for 14-14-14 share of power while SHS is asking for 16-14-12 distribution to reflect the number of MLAs.  This point is still being negotiated.  BJP now claims it has support if 119 MLAs (105 BJP plus various independents and minor pro-BJP parties) and that it can form government.  Main problem with this BJP talking point is that once a SHS-NCP-INC deal is reached most of those pro-BJP independents will shift over to the ruling alliance to get a share of power.

[jaichind]

It seems that the in Maharashtra the SHS-NCP-INC government will be 14-14-12 in terms cabinet member distribution with a SHS CM and 2 DCM (one from NCP and one from INC).  Will see if this deal will hold without last minute changes or massive rebellion.

[jaichind]

Some historical background on Jharkhand.  Jharkhand was a part of Bihar but was split out in 2000 into its own state



What is unique about Jharkhand is that it has a high tribal population (something like 28% of the population) with rich natural resources but an economically backward region.  For decades there have been an on an off movement to create a separate state of Jharkhand given the view that the natural wealth of the region was being controlled by elites in Patna and not for the benefit for the backward tribal population.  This goal was finally achieved in 2000 when the BJP federal government pushed for the creation of Jharkhand.

The INC has been historically weak here.  There are several reasons.  The INC was not strong with the tribal vote which represent the largest demographic group in the state.  The tribal vote was first dominated by the Christian tribal elite in the form of JKP.  Hindu tribals and Sarnaism tribals are more backward and started in the 1950s and 1960s following the lead of the moderate conservative Christian tribal led JKP which pushed for the creation of Jharkhand state but leaving existing social structures intact.   Like Rajasthan, the local landed elites do not align with INC like other Northern Indian states but historically aligned with local Righist forces which all fused into INC Right wing splinter SWA.   All this meant that the INC vote is smaller than other Northern Indian states and rest of Bihar starting in the 1950s and 1960s.

The LS election results of 1962 1967 and 1971 in Jharkhand demonstrate this

1962 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            13                3                33.06%

INC rebel                        0                 1.77%

SWA+        12                6                29.09%

JKP            10                3                22.92%

PSP             3                 0                 1.35%

CPI+           5                 1                  8.41%

After the 1962 LS elections INC, eager to gain a foothold in the Tribal vote, co-opted the JKP and got the JKP to merge into INC.  A anti-merger faction of JKP continued but became a rump version of the original JKP.   Without a real voice pushing for a separate Jharkhand state BJS (proto-BJP) moved in.  BJS's position has always been for small states (to enhance the power of the federal government) and wanted to grow in Jharkhand to capture the pro-statehood vote.


1967 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            13                9                31.76%

INC rebel                        0                 6.54%

BJS            13                0                16.29%

SWA+          8                3                14.32% (pro-landed elite JKD was part of SWA+)

SSP+           8                0                11.30% (CPI was part of SSP)

PSP             2                 0                 2.71%

CPM+          4                0                  4.18%

JKP              6                1                  6.00%

HJS             1                0                  1.18%  (JKP splinter)

With JKP merging into INC reducing JKP into a rump the JKP vote splintered.  INC actually did not gain much from the merger as it merely created a sizable set of INC rebels.  BJS moving it help to split the SWA vote and gave INC an undeserved victory.


1971 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          13               11                39.83%

INC rebel                        0                  1.63%

CPI              4                 0                  6.58%

BJS+          10                 0                14.72% (tactical alliance with INC(O))

INC(O)         3                 0                  4.97% (tactical alliance with BJS+)

JAP              3                 0                  5.85% (post-SWA, landed elites)

SSP+           3                  0                 3.42%

PHJ+           6                  1                  5.21% (JKP splinter)

HJS             1                  0                  0.99% (JKP splinter)
 
AIJP           11                  1                 5.84%  (JKP splinter)

JKP             3                   0                 2.76%

CPM            1                   0                 1.67%

The 1971 Indira Gandhi wave also hit Jharkhand.  In the rest of Bihar CPI had a tactical alliance with INC but not in Jharkhand given the CPI tribal base anti-INC stance.   INC's victory was based on the splinter of various opposition parties as well as the splintering of the various JKP splinter parties.

In the aftermath of 1971 the tribal vote in Jharkhand started to shift away from its Christian tribal elites toward more radical and Leftist alternatives.  In 1972 JMM was formed by Shibu Soren along with Marxist activists.  JMM will over time eat up a large part of the tribal vote and will represent a Leftist shift in the tribal movement for a separate Jharkhand led by Sarnaism tribals and not Christian tribal elites.
 

[jaichind]

The general trend in Jharkhand is that LS elections tend to give decisive verdicts but tend to give very splintered verdicts in assembly elections.

In 1977 the INC was swept from power by the JNP wave which also hit Bihar where the INC was defeated in a landslide.  The scale of the JNP landslide is a bit smaller in Jharkhand where some tribal parties joined forces with JNP but others did not.

1977 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                0                22.95%

CPI              5                0                  4.08%

JNP+          14              14                63.08% (AIIP and JMM were part of JNP+)

JKP              5                0                 2.53%

PHJ              3               0                  0.75%

After the JNP came into power at the federal level assembly elections were called in Bihar along with other Northern Indian states.  JNP swept the Bihar assembly elections but in Jharkhand the scale of the JNP victory was more muted even as JNP won a solid majority in Jharkhand and a larger majority in the rest of Bihar.   JNP tribal allies in the LS elections JMM and AIJP mostly went on its own and help split the anti-INC vote in tribal areas and there were a large number of INC and JNP rebels.


1977 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          73               11                19.98% (tactical alliance with CPI)

INC rebels                      1                   3.97%

CPI            13                3                   4.21% (tactical alliance with INC+)

JNP+          81              56                 41.74%

JNP rbeel                       3                   6.35%

AIJP           21               1                   2.73%

JKP            31               2                   2.52%

PHJ+         11               0                    1.70%

JMM          21                0                   3.37%

CPM            5               1                    1.04%

The tribal vote was very splintered while JNP rebels hit JNP hard in terms of winning a landslide level of seats.

[jaichind]

The JNP government of 1977 collapsed by 1979 leading the the split of JNP and mid term LS elections in 1980.  JNP splinter JNP(S) was stronger in the rest of Bihar but was fairly weak in Jharkhand but regardless split the JNP vote to give the INC the edge while in the rest of Bihar where JNP and JNP(S) was evenly split it was a INC sweep.  Overall the tribal parties kept their base in the tribal heavy zones.

1980 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                7                34.73%

INC rebel                       0                  1.97%

JNP            14                4                26.46%

JNP(S)       12                 0                 7.60% (tactical alliance with INC(U))

INC(U)        4                 0                 0.99% (tactical alliance with JNP(S))

CPI+          6                 0                  6.97% (FBL was part of CPI+)

JMM+         6                 2                10.34%

JKP           13                 1                 3.70%


After the INC returned to power they also called for Bihar assembly elections along with other Northern states.  INC won a convincing victory in the rest of Bihar but failed to win a majority of seats in Jharkhand even as BJP split from JNP and further split the anti-INC vote as INC rebels hurt INC in several seats.



1980 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          79               37               33.05%

INC rebels                      2                  3.79%

JNP+          52                3                  4.87%

JNP rebels                      1                  0.79%

JNP(S)+     53                2                  6.54% (tactical alliance with INC(U))

INC(U)       35                0                  2.65% (tactical alliance with JNP(S))

BJP            72              11                13.77%

CPI+          40               9                10.55% (CPM SUCI were part of CPI+)

JMM+         40             14                12.85%

JKP            26               0                  0.84%

PHJ             4               2                   0.91%

INC formed the government in Bihar given its sweep outside of Jharkhand.  But in Jharkhand the BJP and JMM have established themselves as competitors to INC.  BJP was able to rally OBC Hindu votes that shifted to BJP in response to rising tribal political assertions while JMM was able to rally the radical tribal sentiments.  BJP also benefited from being for the creation of of the state of Jharkhand.  

[jaichind]

The 1984 LS elections took place after the assassination of Indira Gandhi and lead to a massive INC landslide in Northern India which included Bihar as well as the Jharkhand part of Bihar.

1984 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14               14                51.28%

BJP            12                 0                12.80% (tactical alliance with LKD)

LKD             3                 0                 0.81% (renamed from JNP(S), tactical alliance with BJP)

JMM+        11                 0                 9.66%

JMM rebel                       0                 2.32%

JNP+         11                 0                 5.69%

CPI+          9                  0                 9.63% (INC(J) and CPM were part of CPI+)

JKP            2                  0                 1.53%


After the INC 1984 LS landslide the INC won reelection in Bihar 1985 assembly elections but with a increased majority riding the 1984 LS landslide INC wave.  INC even managed to win a majority of seats in Jharkhand.


1985 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          81               43               37.78%

INC rebel                        2                 2.98%

BJP            65               12               12.56% (tactical alliance with LKD)

LKD           52                1                  4.00% (tactical alliance with BJP)

LKD rebel                       1                 1.14%

JMM+        59                 9               10.35%

JMM rebel                      4                 3.03%

JNP+        51                 2                 5.14%

CPI           41                5                 9.66%

CPM         12                 0                 2.23%

JKP            6                 2                 1.59%


BJP and JMM continue to be the main opposition to INC in Hindu and tribal areas respectively even as the INC managed to win a majority of Jharkhand seats despite significant INC rebels.

[jaichind]

The 1989 LS elections saw anti-INC tactical voting between the new JD (merger of LKD and JNP) and BJP across the board in North India which led to an minority JD government with outside support from BJP and Left Front.  In Bihar the JD surge with tactical support led to a collapse of INC although in Jharkhand the INC defeat was less decisive since JMM split the anti-INC vote.

1989 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            14                 2               25.18%

INC rebel                        0                 1.95%

BJP            10                 5               27.74% (tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+             9                 4               19.36% (CPI CPM  MCO (JMM splinter) was part of JD+)

JMM+        10                 3               17.69%

JKP             5                 0                 2.01%

IPF+           4                 0                 1.73% (proto-CPI(ML))

In the rest of Bihar JD ran very strongly but in Jharkhand it is BJP that emerged as the stronger alternative to INC given its support for an separate Jharkhand state.


The 1990 Bihar assembly saw JD and BJP form a tactical alliance to pull down INC but given BJP's ambitions in Jharkhand it was a much weaker tactical alliance in Jharkhand as to make it nearly non-existent .  JD won a large plurality overall as INC was decisively defeated  but in Jharkhand it was a splintered verdict as the INC managed to hold on to a greater part of their base in this 4 way battle (INC vs BJP vs JD vs JMM).

1990 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            81               20               22.34%

INC rebel                        0                 1.28%

BJP            76               21               20.90% (weak tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+           69                 8               12.58% (weak tactical alliance with BJP)

JD rebel                         3                  1.51%

CPI+          42               5                  8.68%

JMM           70              19                15.44%

JMM rebel                      1                  1.11%

JKP+         29                1                  2.22%

IPF+          22               3                   2.66% (proto-CPI(ML))

JD formed the government in Bihar as it won a near majority in the rest of Bihar with support from JMM.   In the Jharkhand region JMM continues to gain ground as the tribal party as well as the BJP which is gaining ground with the OBC Hindu vote as well as supporters of a separate Jharkhand.  

[jaichind]

The JD government collapsed in 1991 triggering the 1991 LS elections.  The Ram Temple movement clearly shifted some INC Upper caste and OBC votes toward BJP as JNP suffered a split with JD(S) being created.  Then the Rajiv Gandhi assassination shifted some votes back to INC.  In Bihar where the part of the LS election where held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination including Jharkhand  while the a good part of Bihar voted after the assassination so the INC failed to gain back support from the BJP.  The BJP surge pushed JD and JMM to form an alliance and JMM led the alliance in the Jharkhand region.   This election represents "peak JMM" given the size of JMM support as part of the JD+ alliance.

1991 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP            14                 5                32.94%

INC            14                 0               17.95%

JMM+        14                 9                33.62% (JD CPI were part of JMM+)

JMM rebel                      0                  2.83%

MCO           1                 0                  2.75%

JD(S)        11                 0                 1.26%

IPF             5                 0                 1.33%

JKP           10                 0                 1.65%

Thanks to the INC wave based on the Rajiv Gandhi assassination the INC was able to win back enough support from BJP to win a near majority.   JMM broke from JD+ post election to back INC in order to gain INC support for a separate Jharkhand.  It seems that in reality JMM leader Shibu Soren accepted a bribe from INC to support a INC government.  When this came out in 1994 it along with charges that Shibu Soren committed murder to cover up this bribe it  damaged the JMM brand in a way that helped the BJP gain some tribal votes.

In 1992 JMM withdrew support from the JD government in Bihar but JMM(M) split from JMM to continue to support JD. The 1995 Bihar assembly election saw INC continue to lose ground to JD that was able to consolidate its OBC base.  JD splinters like BPP, SAP and CSP-JSD did not seem to have hurt the JD from gaining a majority on its own.  In Jharkhand the JD also made gains but again the result was splintered.

1995 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          81               22               19.84%

BJP rebel                        1                  0.62%

INC            79               14               18.31%

INC rebel                        1                 1.10%

JD+           67               16               16.36% (MCO was part of JD+)

CPI            18                 2                3.95% (tactical alliance with JD+)

CPM           11                 1                1.76% (tactical alliance with JD+)

CPI(ML)      17                1                 1.35%

BPP            43                0                 0.90%

SAP            73                0                 2.41% (Nithsh Kumar outfit)

CSP-JSD      41               0                 1.18%

JMM+         76              16                14.38%

JMM rebel     1               1                  0.28%

JMM(M)      58               3                  3.87%

JKPP          33               2                  1.36% (JMM splinter)

BSP            33               0                 0.91%

JKP            29                1                 0.74%

No party of bloc even crossed 20% of the vote in this very splinted result.  But in Bihar overall JD was able to form the government with a stable majority.

After the JD government was re-elected in Bihar came the 1996 and 1998 LS election where a minority JD government was installed after 1996 and fell which allowed the BJP to form a government after 1998 LS elections.  In Bihar BJP allied with SAP and was able to gain ground both elections.  In Jharkhand the BJP surged into the dominate party by itself as JMM lost ground to BJP and JD split and collapse between 1996 and 1998 also shifted votes to BJP.

1996 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP            14                12               34.04%

INC            14                 1               15.98%

INC rebel                        0                 1.07%

JMM           13                 1                11.03%

JMM(M)       5                 0                  3.67%

MCO           1                  0                 1.44%

JD+          14                 0                24.33% (CPI was part of JD+)


1998 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP            14                12               45.52%

INC+           9                 2                21.05% (MCO was part of INC+, tactical alliance with RJD)

RJD             5                 0                  9.16% (JD Lalu Yadav splinter, tactical alliance with INC+)

JMM+          9                 0                11.30%

JMM(M)       3                 0                  2.76%

JD              6                 0                   2.75%

CPI             3                 0                  3.22%

CPI(ML)+    5                 0                  1.25% (CPM was part of CPI(ML)+)

The decline of JMM and JD meant that by 1998 the BJP was the dominate party in Jharkhand at the LS election based on its Hindu Upper caste and OBC vote plus tribal support for BJP to create a separate Jharkhand state.
 

[jaichind]

After the BJP came to power at the federal level in 1998 a break in the BJP and AIADMK alliance led to the 1999 mid-term elections which BJP won based on the Vajpayee wave.  In Bihar JD split into pro- and anti- BJP factions and the pro-BJP JD(U) merged with SAP and produced a JD(U)-BJP-BPP victory over RJD-INC.  In Jharkhand only BJP ran and defeated the INC-RJD tactical alliance.  JMM(M) merged back into JMM but another JMM splinter JMM(U) emerged to hit JMM.

1999 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP            14               11                45.53%

INC+         12                 2                29.23% (MCO was part of INC+, tactical alliance with RJD)

RJD             4                 1                 7.48% (tactical alliance with INC)

JMM+        13                 0                 9.41%

JMM(U)       4                 0                 2.03%

CPI(ML)      6                 0                 0.96%

CPI             3                 0                 2.61%

BSP          10                 0                 0.99%


Based on the JD(U)-BJP victory in the 1999 LS elections in Bihar the NDA was confident of victory in the 2000 Bihar assembly election.  The BJP was campaigning on creating Jharkhand as a separate state which RJD took advantage of to gain votes in the rest of Bihar.  Also the SAP-JD(U)-BPP merger failed to take place in time and due to overconfidence each only had a tactical alliance with BJP.  The result was RJD actually winning a plurality and formed the government with INC support.  In Jharkhand the BJP actually managed to come close to winning a majority with its tactical allies SAP and JD(U)

2000 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP            72               32               25.13%

BJP rebel                        1                 1.22%

SAP           17                 5                 4.23% (tactical alliance with BJP)

JD(U)+      16                 4                 2.73% (tactical alliance with BJP)

INC           81               11               20.09%

RJD+        79                 9               12.41% (CPM SJP were part of RJD+)

JMM          74               12               15.93%

UGDP         6                 2                 1.20% (JMM splinter)

AJSU          2                 0                 0.55% (JMM splinter)

CPI(ML)     19                1                 1.63%

MCO           8                 1                 1.30%

BSP          60                 0                 1.53%

JKP+        17                 0                 0.82%

CPI+        43                 0                 4.42% (AIFB was part of CPI+)

SP            32                0                  1.49%



In Nov 2000 true to its promise the state of Jharkhand was created with a BJP led government. The first BJP CM was Babulal Marandi who was a long time leader of the BJP tribal bloc.  He had close links to RSS and was able to marry the Hindu and Tribal base of the BJP under his leadership
  

But Babulal Marandi eventually ran afoul its JD(U) who demanded that he is removed or else JD(U) will withdraw support from the BJP government.   So in 2003 Arjun Munda was made the BJP CM.  Arjun Munda had a JMM background and was also a tribal leader but joined BJP due to BJP's devotion to creating a separate Jharkhand state.

[jaichind]

The 2004 LS election took place after the BJP had to switch CMs which in conjunction with INC, RJD and JMM forming a tactical alliance led to the defeat of BJP in Jharkhand.  JD(U) running separately added to the unexpected defeat of the BJP.  Nationally the BJP was defeated paving the way for a UPA government at the federal level.

2004 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
BJP            14                1                33.01%

BJP rebel                       0                  1.13%

JD(U)          5                0                  3.80%

INC+         10                7                25.25% (CPI was part of INC+, tactical alliance with JMM RJD)

RJD             2                2                  3.51% (tactical alliance with INC)

JMM+          6                4                16.91% (tactical alliance with INC)

AJSU          5                0                  1.69% (JMM splinter)

CPI(ML)+    9                0                  3.74% (MCO was part of CPI(ML)+)

BSP          14                0                  2.34%

JKP             6                0                  0.61%



As a result of the UPA victory JMM joined the ruling alliance and JMM leader Shibu Soren was made a minister at in the federal government.

The UPA was hopeful of dislodging the BJP in the 2005 Jharkhand assembly elections based on the 2004 LS elections.  But overconfidence meant that INC failed to get an alliance with JMM and LJP and formed only a tactical alliance with RJD.   The BJP, learning from the 2004 LS setback, quickly secured an alliance with JD(U) and was able to emerge as the largest bloc in a splintered verdict.

2005 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          81               36               27.57% (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 1.02%

JBSP           1                 1                 0.27% (BJP splinter)

INC+         50               10               13.81% (tactical alliance with RJD)

INC rebel                       0                0.72%

NCP           13                1                0.43%

JVC           18                 0                0.97% (INC splinter)

RJD          51                  7                8.48% (tactical alliance with INC+)

RJD rebel                       0                0.80%

LJP           38                 0                1.57%

JMM+       53                18              15.22%

AJSU+      41                 2                2.91% (JMM splinter)

UGDP       22                 2                1.52% (JMM splinter)

CPI(ML)    24                 1                2.46%

MCO          5                 0                1.01%

BSP         75                 0                3.01%

JKP          27                 1                0.97%

CPI+       40                  2                3.79% (CPM AIFB were part of CPI+)

SP          37                  0                1.79%


 
The vote was very splintered with JMM splinter AJSU hitting JMM pretty hard and the split of the UPA vote allowed the NDA to win a plurality.  At first the pro-UPA governor tried to installed JMM's Shibu Soren as CM but he did not have the numbers and BJP's  Arjun Munda  was able to form a government with JD(U) and other independents support.

In 2006 former BJP CM Babulal Marandi split from BJP and formed JVM.  Then Madhu Koda who was the leader of BJP tribal splinter JBSP  withdrew his support from the BJP government.  This paved the way for an UPA government.  On paper it should be JMM's Shibu Soren that should lead the UPA government but he was convicted for murder as part of his cover-up of the 1991 INC bribe to Shibu Soren for JMM to back the INC federal government.    Eventually a compromise CM was selected in the form of JBSP's Madhu Koda


In 2008 Shibu Soren murder conviction was overturned and after some complex horse trading Madhu Koda stepped aside to support Shibu Soren to be CM.  The main problem was that Shibu Soren was not an MLA.  Over 2018 Shibu Soren contested a by-elections and failed to win. As a result he was removed as CM and Jharkhand went into Presidents rule in early 2009 as the UPA had a fractured majority but does not have anyone that can lead the government.  The decision was to keep that status quo and wait to hold an early assembly election later in 2009 after the 2009 LS elections.