2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #975 on: November 20, 2019, 03:43:03 PM »
« edited: November 21, 2019, 10:04:46 PM by jaichind »

The 2009 LS election saw INC win re-election with an overall victory for UPA.  In Jharkhand in theory the BJP should be in trouble given the JVM taking away part of its tribal base.   But with INC RJD and JMM not able to form a solid alliance the UPA vote was split and with the UPA chaos at the state government level the BJP was able to secure a victory in Jharkhand.

2009 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
BJP+           13                9                28.72% (tactical alliance with JD(U))

BJP rebel                        0                  0.83%

JD(U)           2                 0                 1.21% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

JVM            14                 1               10.48%

INC              9                1                15.02% (tactical alliance with RJD JMM)

RJD             5                 0                 5.33% (tactical alliance with INC JMM)

JMM+        10                 3               16.00% (JSBP part of JMM+, tactical alliance with INC RJD)

CPI(ML)+   13                0                 5.49% (CPI MCO CPM were part of CPI(ML)+)

BSP           14                 0                3.52%

AJSU           6                 0                2.19%

JKP             7                 0                1.38%



After the UPA returned to power in the 2009 LS election came the early Jharkard assembly election which was necessary as no government was possible.   INC opted to form a tactical alliance with JVM nut one again the assembly election threw up a fractured verdict with no real winner.

2009 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          80               20               22.89% (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

INC            59               14               15.99% (tactical alliance with JVM)

JVM            25               11               9.06% (tactical alliance with INC)

RJD            55                5                5.05%  

RJD rebel                        1               0.68%

JMM+         78              19              15.42%

AJSU          54                5               5.16%

CPI(ML)      33                1               2.37%

MCO            6                1                1.10%

JBSP           9                 1               0.91%

AITC          39                0                0.94%

BSP           78                0                2.46%

JKP            41               1                 1.11%

CPI+         18                0                1.33% (CPM AIFB were part of CPI+)

JJM            9                 1                0.73% (tribal)

RKP           3                 1                0.71% (tribal)



The fractured result led to no viable majority.  The JMM and BJP struck a deal to form a government with Shibu Soren as CM with BJP and AJSU support with the understanding that the CM role will rotate to BJP halfway through the term.  The alliance fell apart after a few months after JMM insisted on supporting UPA at the federal level.  Then JMM was working with INC-RJD to try to form a government with support from AJSU.  Then Shibu Soren failed to win a by-election to become a MLA and this entire structure broke down as JMM splintered with a pro-BJP faction threatening to go over to the BJP.  After a few months of Presidential rule the BJP-JMM alliance was restored with BJP's Arjun Munda becoming CM again.  

Then in 2013 the BJP-JMM alliance broke down again and a JMM-INC-RJD government was formed.  To deal with the fact that Shibu Soren kept on losing by-elections to become a MLA his son Hemant Soren  who was a MLA was made the CM
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jaichind
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« Reply #976 on: November 21, 2019, 03:17:20 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:55:16 AM by jaichind »

One of the conditions of INC backing a JMM government in 2013 was that JMM will play a subordinate role to INC in the 2014 LS elections as part of a INC-JMM-RJD alliance.  But the anti-INC mood nationally was too strong as well as local anti-incumbency against the JMM government which led to a Modi wave BJP sweep in the 2014 LS elections as part of a BJP landslide victory nationally.  JD(U) broke with BJP in Bihar so JD(U) contested separately in Jharkhand but even with that an a fusion of the INC-JMM-RJD vote failed to stop the BJP Modi wave.

2014 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
BJP            14               12                40.71%

JVM           14                 0                12.25%
  
INC+         14                2                 24.56% (JMM RJD were part of INC+)

AJSU           9                0                   3.77%

CPI(ML)+    9                 0                  3.36% (MCO was part of CPI(ML)+)

AITC+       11                0                  4.08% (JBSP was part of AITC+)

JKP            4                 0                  1.59%

BSP          14                 0                  1.10%

AAP            5                 0                 0.70%

JD(U)         5                 0                 0.67%

CPI+         5                  0                 1.14%



In the aftermath of the BJP landslide INC and JMM broke up their alliance for the 2014 assembly elections later in the year so each party can focus on shoring up their core support base (tribals for JMM and Dalit/Muslims for INC.)  INC had a tactical alliance with RJD-JD(U).  In the meantime BJP tied up with AJSU and LJP.  AJSU has had pro-BJP leanings since its founding as a JMM splinter where it got started as the JMM youth wing that broke away from the parent party.  The result was a narrow majority for BJP+.

2014 Jharkhand assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          81               42               35.69% (AJSU LJP were part of BJP+)

AJSU rebel                      0                 0.55%

JVM           73                 8               10.16%

INC+         64                 7               11.20% (NSM was part of INC+, tactical alliance with RJD+)

INC rebel                        0                 0.72%

RJD+         31                 0                 4.39% (tactical alliance with INC+)

JMM           79               19               20.78%

CPI(ML)      39                1                 1.54%

MCO           13                1                 1.04%

JBSP+        29                1                 1.32% (AITC was part of JBSP+)

JKP            19                1                 1.13%

BSP            61               1                 1.85%
 
CPI+          51                0                 1.77%

SP             46                 0                 0.80%



INC and JMM was able to regain some of their base but the splintering of the anti-BJP vote allowed the BJP to form a majority with its allies.  In a surprise move BJP named Raghubar Das who has a OBC background as the BJP CM as opposed to BJP tribal leader and 3 time CM Arjun Munda.


This seems to be an attempt by the BJP to corner the non-tribal vote and then muse Modi to sweep in the tribal vote to add up to a winnable coalition in the future.

2014 Jharkhand assembly election post-election survey by CSDS

                      BJP-AJSU   JMM       INC
Upper caste         50          15         10
OBC                    40          19         15
Dalits                  29           24        11
Tribal                  30           29        10       
Muslims              14           18        34
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jaichind
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« Reply #977 on: November 21, 2019, 03:37:01 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 07:33:59 AM by jaichind »

The BJP government in Jharkhand was able to last the entire term which is a first in state history.  But the fear of an invincible BJP provoked the opposition to unite leading to a massive grand alliance of JMM-INC-JVM-RJD to take on the BJP-AJSU in the 2019 LS elections.  The agreement being that INC leads the grand alliance in the LS elections while JMM will lead the alliance in the assembly elections.  

The BJP was viewed as vulnerable as its OBC CM turned of tribal support and the opposition was united.  JBSP also merged into INC.  On the plus side JD(U) in Bihar rejoined the NDA in 2017 which meant the JD(U) would back BJP in Jharkhand in 2019.  But the JD(U) base was not large in Jharkhand.  it was expected that the BJP will suffer a setback in Jharkhand in 2019.  But the Modi wave was able to carry the BJP to shock landslide win in Jharkhand and in the rest of India with a massive 56% vote share.

2019 Jharkhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          14               12                56.00% (AJSU was part of BJP+)

INC+          13                2                32.57% (JMM and JVM was part of INC+, RJD tactical ally)

RJD              2                0                 2.45% (tactical alliance with INC+)

CPI(ML)+     6                0                 1.22% (CPI CPM were part of CPI(ML)+)

BSP             6                0                 0.49%

CSDS post-election survey
                         UPA   NDA  OTH
Upper caste         36    60      5
OBC                    26    70      4
SC                      48    46      6
Hindu STs            29    65      6  (Hindu tribals)
Muslim                78    11     11
Christian              56   33     11  (Christian tribals)
Others                 31   60      9  (most of them are Sarnaism tribal)


The Modi wave seems to have carried the tribal vote despite tribal resentment toward the BJP CM with BJP winning the Hindu tribal vote (logical) but also the Sarnaism tribal vote which is a surprise and really a sign of the Modi wave.  The Modi wave also managed to split the Dalit vote with the UPA.  The Dalit and Sarnaism tribal vote are likely to swing away from BJP in the assembly election.

It was expected that the BJP-AJSU would still win a majority in the 2019 assembly elections despite the unpopularity of the BJP government based on the Modi wave.   The BJP and AJSU heavily recruited and poached from opposition parties to enlarge their local base.  The JVM caucus was pretty much decimated as almost all its MLA defected to BJP or AJSU.  This weakened JVM's hand in alliance talks with JMM-INC-RJD who refused to grant JVM a seat allocation that JVM felt it deserved.  As a result JVM walked out the JMM led alliance.  

But the Oct Maharashtra and Haryana assembly election results showed that local factors was able to weight down on an incumbent BJP government even with Modi being popular as the BJP suffered unexpected setbacks in both states.

The net result was that the BJP and AJSU became less confident of victory which provoked both sides to take a hardline position in seat talks in view of a likely fractured verdict.  As a result talks failed and AJSU and LJP broke away from the BJP and will run separately.  JD(U) despite being a BJP ally in Bihar will also run separately.  Furthermore BJP tribal win led by former CM Arjun Munda started to assert itself by demanding to take on a larger role in the campaign.  The tribal vs non-tribal conflict got to a point in the BJP where BJP high command pretty much made the call that Modi will lead the campaign sidelining both the BJP CM Raghubar Das and tribal leader  former CM Arjun Munda.

So now on paper the BJP could be in trouble and while it is likely to emerge as the largest party it is less and less likely it can win a majority on its own.  The BJP main hope has to be that Modi can transfer a lot of his support over to the BJP and that JMM JVM AJSU can split the tribal vote and allowed the BJP Upper Caste-OBC vote to carry it to victory.  In the JMM-INC-RJD favor is that they have a clear CM face of former JMM CM Hemant Soren.
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jaichind
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« Reply #978 on: November 21, 2019, 03:53:09 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/jharkhand-cm-raghubar-das-bjp-rebel-saryu-rai-file-nominations-against-each-other-1620108-2019-11-18

"Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das, BJP rebel Saryu Rai file nominations against each other"

BJP MLA Saryu Rai and long time anti-corruption crusader who exposed the Bihar fodder scam that brought down RJD kingpin Lalu Yadav and several other Bihar CM has quit BJP.  Saryu Rai  did not get along well with BJP CM Raghubar Das and was not renominated for his seat.  In anger he bolted from BJP and will be running as a BJP rebel with JD(U) support as well as  Raghubar Das's seat.

Overall both BJP and AJSU was looking a massive rebellions in both parties given that both recruited a lot of opposition defectors plus the prospect of victory got a lot of internal leaders being determined to run.  With the BJP-AJSU alliance broken that actually helps on the rebel front for both parties.  But the BJP pro- and anti-  Raghubar Das faction will continue to dog the BJP effort.
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jaichind
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« Reply #979 on: November 21, 2019, 03:57:45 PM »

Due to continued Maoist Naxal rebel threat the Jharkhand election has to be in 5 phases so the security forces can deploy in areas that are due to vote one phase at a time.  This indirectly helps BJP as Modi can then can have a targeted campaign over a longer period as each phase are due to vote.

In the first phase which vote Nov 30 there are 13 mostly tribal heavy seats.  BJP will face rebels in at least 3 of these 13 seats, JMM-INC-RJD have strong candidates in 7 others and in 3 seats AJSU will be in the fray to split the NDA vote.
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xelas81
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« Reply #980 on: November 21, 2019, 05:31:50 PM »

Due to continued Maoist Naxal rebel threat the Jharkhand election has to be in 5 phases so the security forces can deploy in areas that are due to vote one phase at a time.  This indirectly helps BJP as Modi can then can have a targeted campaign over a longer period as each phase are due to vote.

In the first phase which vote Nov 30 there are 13 mostly tribal heavy seats.  BJP will face rebels in at least 3 of these 13 seats, JMM-INC-RJD have strong candidates in 7 others and in 3 seats AJSU will be in the fray to split the NDA vote.

Are Naxalites supporting anyone or do they ignore party politics and elections?
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jaichind
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« Reply #981 on: November 21, 2019, 09:02:56 PM »

Not all worked out yet but the emerging SHS-NCP-INC government in Maharashtra want itself to be called the Maha Vikas Alliance (or Maharashtra Victory Alliance)


It seems what stopping this bloc from claiming power is the NCP insistence that all 3 parties are in the government and share power as well as all details of power sharing worked out.  NCP's concern is that if this government falls mid-term the resulting election will see a mega BJP landslide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #982 on: November 21, 2019, 09:44:56 PM »

Due to continued Maoist Naxal rebel threat the Jharkhand election has to be in 5 phases so the security forces can deploy in areas that are due to vote one phase at a time.  This indirectly helps BJP as Modi can then can have a targeted campaign over a longer period as each phase are due to vote.

In the first phase which vote Nov 30 there are 13 mostly tribal heavy seats.  BJP will face rebels in at least 3 of these 13 seats, JMM-INC-RJD have strong candidates in 7 others and in 3 seats AJSU will be in the fray to split the NDA vote.

Are Naxalites supporting anyone or do they ignore party politics and elections?

The reality is all parties do deals with the Naxalites and all parties accuse everyone else of having secret deals with the Naxalites.  In fact in many but not all cases the Naxalite rebels are a feature and not a bug.  When a district have Naxalite activity the local MLAs would claim that they are the result of economic underdevelopment and demand state and federal subsidies.  When such subsidies flow in the local political machine capture most of economic value and often share them with the Naxalites which they are often connected to.
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jaichind
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« Reply #983 on: November 21, 2019, 09:45:56 PM »

The 5 phases of Jharkhand assembly elections

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jaichind
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« Reply #984 on: November 21, 2019, 10:26:20 PM »

If seems that if SHS-NCP-INC does form the government in Maharashtra, SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray will become CM and not his son Aaditya Thackeray which SHS have been projecting as SHS CM candidate.  It seems NCP objected to Aaditya Thackeray and insisted on Uddhav Thackeray on being the CM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #985 on: November 22, 2019, 09:38:15 PM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/jharkhand-assembly-election-2019-bjp-going-solo-for-first-time-in-state/story-xgUtRrmdoGCcVfc9asxLnJ.html

"Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019: BJP going solo for first time in state"

Points out that BJP is now contesting by itself for the first time in several Jharkhand assembly election cycles



Although it points out that on paper BJP and AJSU have not officially broken the alliance nor have they attacked each other.  BJP also have not nominated a candidate against the leader of AJSU and vice versa.  It is possible that both parties agreed that there are just too many potential rebels on both sides and that to avoid massive rebellion on both sides the alliance will have to be off and later in the campaign both parties can potentially try to work out tactical voting to try to save seats for both parties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #986 on: November 22, 2019, 09:46:15 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/diu/story/jharkhand-elections-bjp-united-opposition-jmm-jvm-congress-rjd-1621801-2019-11-22

"In Jharkhand, united opposition has upper hand over solo BJP"

India Today analysis of 2014 results indicated that BJP would be vulnerable to a fusion of the INC JMM and RJD vote bases while losing the AJSU vote base based a view of the marginal seats.



Main problem is there must been a lot of churn since 2014 with the BJP and AJSU having taken on a bunch of JVM and some JMM leaders as defectors.  On the other hand there are a bunch of BJP rebels so the seats that he BJP are vulnerable are not necessary where it won narrowly in 2014.  It is also not clear that JMM INC and RJD vote bloc will fuse perfectly. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #987 on: November 22, 2019, 09:53:49 PM »

Suddenly there is a last minute twist in Maharashtra just as SHS-NCP-INC government is to be formed.  Devendra Fadnavis  of the BJP takes the oath as new CM with NCP's Ajit Paawar as DCM.  It seems that BJP-NCP did a sudden double-cross over SHS and INC to form a government.  It is not clear if NCP have split or if NCP have gone over to BJP wholesale.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #988 on: November 22, 2019, 10:07:33 PM »

INC and SHS seems to be in total shock on how they were sold out by Sharad Pawar's NCP.  It seems NCP was talking with INC and SHS to form a government but insisted on all details to be worked out to buy it time to work out a deal with BJP to double cross INC and SHS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #989 on: November 22, 2019, 10:48:34 PM »

It is reported that NCP leader Sharad Pawar, on a call with SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray this morning said that what took place was a coup within the NCP where his nephew Ajit Pawar has split NCP and taken his faction over to back the BJP and that this BJP-Ajit Pawar alliance does not have his knowledge or support.  If this is true then for this to work Ajit Pawar have to have taken over 38 out of 54 NCP MLA (more than 2/3) for this to be a legal split of NCP.  Of course 38 would be enough anyway to add to BJP's 105 MLA and other pro-BJP MLAs to form a majority.

BJP source reject this story saying that Sharad Pawar was part of this deal and the entire NCP is with the BJP-NCP government.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #990 on: November 22, 2019, 10:55:04 PM »

What is ironic is that the same thing took place in Haryana and Maharashtra.  In Haryana JJP ran an aggressive anti-BJP campaign and exceeded expectations only to join BJP to form a coalition government post election.  In Mahabharata, the NCP ran a strong anti-BJP campaign only to join BJP form a coalition government post-election. 

BTW, in Jharkhand do not rule out JMM outperforming expectations on a strong anti-BJP campaign only to join BJP in a coalition post election if BJP fail to win a majority.  That is what took place in 2009.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #991 on: November 22, 2019, 11:03:17 PM »



Sharad Pawar as good cop and Ajit Pawar as bad cop ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #992 on: November 22, 2019, 11:15:42 PM »

This reminds me of Karnataka 2006.  In 2004 Karnataka assembly elections none of INC BJP and JD(S) was able to win a majority.  JD(S) which took an anti-BJP position backed INC to form the government.  Then in 2006 Kumaraswamy, son of JD(S) leader Deve Gowda, "rebelled" against is father and too over JD(S) to form a government with BJP support.   Deve Gowda kept on complaining along the way saying none of these moves had his support but just sat there an allowed all his MLA back his son to take over as CM with BJP support.   Of course in reality this was an act so JD(S) can take power with BJP support but not lose the anti-BJP vote in the next election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #993 on: November 23, 2019, 07:12:04 AM »

It seems as the day develops, for now, the  Sharad Pawar public narrative is correctly: namely a minority faction led by Ajit Pawar have decided to back BJP.  The size of this Ajit Pawar faction was around 11 MLAs but now have been reduced to around 7 MLA as most of the NCP caucus are rallying around Sharad Pawar.  Of course it is not clear how many of the 54 NCP MLA are sitting on the fence versus actively backing Sharad Pawar.

Ajit Pawar

 
Sharad Pawar does seem non-committal on how  Ajit Pawar and faction would be punished for this rebellion.  This could either be a) Sharad Pawar is still really behind this move or b) Sharad Pawar wants his caucus restored without damage and have not given up on getting   Ajit Pawar faction to end their rebellion

If what seems to be playing out is correct then the either Ajit Pawar or the pro-BJP Maharashtra  governor have perpetuated a large fraud.  The governor should not have allowed the BJP's Devendra Fadnavis to be installed as CM  without verification that there is a majority for the BJP government.  The only way that could be true is if Ajit Pawar presented letters of support from all NCP MLAs for a BJP government.  So either the  Maharashtra  governor failed to do his duty (which becomes a Constitutional matter) or  Ajit Pawar  forged letter of support of the NCP MLAs in his role as the leader of the NCP Legislative Party.

Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari (former BJP CM of Uttarakhand)
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jaichind
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« Reply #994 on: November 23, 2019, 07:19:35 AM »

A key NCP MLA of the Ajit Pawar faction is Dhananjay Munde.  Dhananjay Munde is actually the nephew of BJP leader Gopinath Munde.  Gopinath Munde was the leader of the BJP in Maharashtra until his untimely death in 2014.  Dhananjay Munde broke with his family in 2012 and joined BJP.  In this latest assembly election actually defeated his cousin who was the BJP candidate.


Although now it seems Dhananjay Munde might be flipping back to the Sharad Pawar side seeing that the Ajit Pawar faction does not have the numbers to split the party and back BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #995 on: November 23, 2019, 07:32:46 AM »

Joint press conference with NCP leader Sharad Pawar  and SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray indicating that Ajit Pawar has gone rouge and that his action was not authorized by the NCP


I suspect we will soon go into the mode where SHS INC and what is left of the NCP MLAs will be put in 5 star resorts with their smart phones taken away to deal with another round of potential BJP poaching.  BJP is around 40-50 MLAs short.  You got to figure it will cost $6-$8 million to buy each MLA to resign with a promise for the BJP to re-nominate them in the by-election.  So the cost for the BJP to buy their way out of this would be $400 million or so.  Seems like a price worth paying.  Question is would there be enough takes for this sort of deal.
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jaichind
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« Reply #996 on: November 23, 2019, 07:42:04 AM »

I would guess this BJP maneuver is really part of a plan to break SHS.  By showing SHS that they can break NCP (even if does not given the the numbers) the BJP want to project an image to the SHS MLAs that the BJP will rule Maharashtra come hell or high water.  The SHS MLAs are desperate to be in government and only went along with the   Uddhav Thackeray's plan to go with INC-NCP one the basis that they will get a better deal than to go with BJP.  Now if it seems BJP will form the government one way or another then the SHS ranks will break.  So the critical question over the next few days would be: Can SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray hold his MLA together ?

Game theory wise this sounds like classical prisoners dilemma for SHS and NCP MLAs: If all of them hold they will share power with INC without BJP.  But for that to take place they have to trust others will not break ranks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #997 on: November 23, 2019, 07:49:04 AM »

Ajit Pawar was the DCM back in 2010-2012 as part of the INC-NCP government. Due to his role he is under investigations for several massive corruption scandals.  Due to all this there were already signs that Sharad Pawar was distancing himself from his nephew.  In fact the BJP explicitly ran against Ajit Pawar as a symbol of NCP corruption in the 2014 and 2019 LS and assembly elections.  And now the BJP will take on Ajit Pawar as the DCM in a BJP government.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #998 on: November 23, 2019, 08:31:03 AM »

SHS-NCP-INC will now go to Supreme Court saying that the Maharashtra governor act of installing a BJP government is illegal and based on false documents.  They are also demanding a floor test within 24 hours feeling that they have the numbers to bring down this new BJP government. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #999 on: November 23, 2019, 08:42:11 AM »

It seems NCP and SHS MLAs will be kept in 5 star hotels in Mumbai while the INC MLAs will be flown out to a 5 star resort in Rajasthan where there is an INC state government.   In all cases I am sure smartphones will be either taken away or apps installed to monitor commutations activity.
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