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jaichind
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« on: January 05, 2019, 07:47:02 pm »

2019 LS elections due to take place April/May 2019.  AP, Odisha, J&K assembly to take place at the same time.  Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand assembly elections to take place in late 2019.  There is a chance that Maharashtra assembly elections might take place at the same time as LS elections but that is unlikely.

LS elections will be of course ruling NDA vs UPA plus a bunch of other regional parties in the fray in their respective states.  BJP led NDA has the edge but it is not clear that it can win a majority on its own but might need other parties to support it which means Modi might have to be out as PM.
AP will be most likely ruling TDP allied with INC to take on YSRCP and JS as a third force with BJP as a minor force.
Odisha will be ruling BJD vs BJP vs INC with INC most likely being marginalized.
J&K will be BJP vs INC in Hindu areas and INC ally NC vs PDP in Muslim areas
Maharashtra will be ruling BJP perhaps SHS as an ally vs INC-NCP
Haryana will be ruling BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP vs INLD splinter JJP.  With INLD split down the middle it most likely be a two way battle between BJP and INC.
Jharkhand will be ruling BJP-AJSU vs JMM-INC-RJD with JVM most likely part of the JMM-INC alliance.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 01:46:36 pm by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2019, 08:09:17 pm »

It seems for LS elections SP and BSP reached a deal where out of the 80 seats they will split it 37-37, will not run in the 2 INC seats held by the Gandhis and leave 2 seats for RLD, 1 for NISHAD and the last seat for AD(S) or perhaps if SBSP were to defect from NDA over to the SP-BSP grand alliance.  This mostly leaves INC out of the Grand Alliance in UP


Most commentators feel that this will work to help BJP if INC is not part of the SP-BSP grand alliance.  I tend to think that this could work to hurt the BJP if INC were to run Upper Caste candidates in areas where INC is strong and will split the BJP Upper caste vote.

https://www.thequint.com/videos/news-videos/elections-2019-stock-market-portfolios-political-myths

seems to agree with me

Quote
allow me to argue that it makes tactical sense for the Congress not to have a Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in UP or WB or Odisha. Since the Congress’s core vote banks overlap with the BJP’s (example, Brahmins and Thakurs in UP), a strategically placed Congress candidate (who would not divide the Muslims or Dalits, but cut into Brahmin and Thakur votes) could actually damage the BJP. And thereby hand over the advantage to Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee or Naveen Patnaik!
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2019, 10:04:48 am »

India TV-CNX came out with a poll in Jan 2019 for LS elections

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/nda-may-fall-15-seats-short-of-majority-says-survey-119010600023_1.html

It has it at

              Seats           Vote Share
NDA      257(-24)          37.15%
UPA       146(+22)         29.92%
Others   140                  32.93%

If you do a breakdown you get

                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      18                 11                                                       29
Chhattisgarh         5                   6                                                        11
Rajastahan          15                 10                                                        25
Punjab                        SAD:5     7                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               8                   2                                                        10
Bihar                  13    JD(U)11   2  RJD:10                                           40
                                 LJP:3           RLSP:1                                
WB                     10                  2                                      AITC:26      42
                                                                                       Left:4
Odisha                 8                   0                BJD:13                             21    
Gujarat              24                   2                                                        26
Karnataka          15                   9  JD(S):4                                           28
AP                      0                   2   TDP:4     YSRCP:19                          25
Kerala                 1                   8  MUL:2                           Left:5          20
                                                   KEC(M):1                      Left Ind: 2
                                                   RSP:1
TN                      0   PMK:1       3  DMK:21   AIADMK:10     AMMK:4      39  
UP                    40   AD:1         2  RLD:2                           SP:20         80
                                                                                       BSP:15
Maharashtra      22   SHS:8       9  NCP:9                                              48    
Delhi                  5                   1                                       AAP:1           7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Northeast         17   MNF:1                                               AIUDF:2       25
                             SDF:1                                                Left:1
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
UT                    4   AINRC:1    1                                                           6
Telengana         0                    0                   TRS:16        AIMIM:1       17                  
Jharkhand         7                   2  JMM:4                           JVM:1           14
Goa                  1                   1                                                           2
Uttarakhand      4                   1                                                           5
HP                    4                   0                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              223  34           83  61             58               84              543

Mistakes I see are
1) It seems they did not add up the seats correctly.  I think for WB they flipped the INC and Left Front seat count of 2 and 4 into 4 and 2.  UPA seat count should really be 144 and not 146.
2) In TN PMK is no longer in NDA but the report counts them as NDA
3) In UP the report counts RLD as a part of UPA but it is really a part of SP-BSP grand alliance
4) In Kerela, KEC(M) is really not back as a part of UPA but I agree most likely they will rejoin UPA

Thoughts I have are:
1) I think the poll overall might be overestimating Modi's impact on BJP strength in the Hindi North but I could be wrong.
2) I am confused how in  Karnataka  the same poll in Nov which had BJP vs INC vs JD(S) can came out with the same seat seat result now the poll has it as BJP vs INC-JD(S)
3) The Maharashtra poll assumes a BJP-SHS alliance which now seems somewhat less likely but the poll results should worry BJP if BJP-SHS could "only" collect 30 seats when the CW is that such an alliance should get at least 35 out of 48 seats.  One thing is for sure INC-NCP will be allies here.
4) I suspect the UP result will be worse than this if INC runs a bunch of Upper Caste candidates in areas of strength to split the BJP Upper Caste vote as SP-BSP consolidate their Dalit-Muslim core.
5) TN results does not make that much sense.  Usually TN tends to swing uniformly which often leads to one sided victories.  If AIADMK and AMMK could split the seats 10 and 4 respectively then the AIADMK base is most likely split which should mean DMK-INC sweeping the vast majority of the seats.
6) In Assam, what about BPF? Even if BPF does not win Kokrajhar there is no way BJP nor AIUDF would win it.  Unless this projection has the BPF candidate running on the BJP symbol?

But if these were the results then NDA would need to rope in AIADMK and YSRCP into the NDA to form a majority which means that Modi might not be PM.

The Nov 2018 poll had
                         BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      20                   9                                                       29
Chhattisgarh         7                   4                                                        11
Rajastahan          12                 13                                                        25
Punjab                        SAD:4     8                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               8                   1                                      INLD:1        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U):9    1  RJD:10                                           40
                                 LJP:3
                                 RLSP:1
WB                      8                   2                                      AITC:27      42
                                                                                       Left:5
Odisha                 5                                     BJD:16                             21    
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          15                   9                                      JD(S):4       28
AP                      1                   0                 YSRCP:16       TDP:8          25
Kerala                 1                   7  MUL:2                           Left:7          20
                                                   KEC:1                           Left Ind: 2
TN                      0                   3  DMK:17   AIADMK:14     AMMK:3       39
                                                  MDMK:1   PMK:1
UP                    55   AD:1         5                                      SP:9            80
                                                                                       BSP:9
Maharashtra      30   SHS:8       5  NCP:5                                              48    
Delhi                  7                    0                                                          7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Northeast         17   BPF:1                                                AIUDF:2       25
                              AGP:1
                             SDF:1
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
                             UDF:1
UT                    4                    1  NCP:1                                               6
Telengana         1                    5                   TRS:9          TDP:1           17
                                                                                     AIMIM:1                    
Jharkhand         5   AJSU:1      2  JMM:5                                              14
                                                 JVM:1
Goa                  1                   1                                                           2
Uttarakhand      4                   1                                                           5
HP                    3                   1                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              247  34           79  45             56               82              543

So it is BJP 247 BJP allies 34 -> 281
           INC 79 INC allies 45 -> 124
           Pro-BJP others 56
           Anti-BJP Others 82
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 10:35:40 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2019, 02:56:35 pm »

As elections get close there will be more and more articles in the media that will fit my standard defection news template.

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

There is an example today where an ex-BJD MLA in Orissa has defected to INC.

https://odishasuntimes.com/odisha-politics-bjd-veteran-joins-congress-ahead-of-polls/

Quote
Congress veteran and legislature party leader Narasingha Mishra, former MP Bhakta Charan Das, AICC Secretary Shaik Mastan Vali, former PCC president Sarat Patnaik, senior party leaders Kishore Patel and Santosh Singh Saluja among others were present during the programme where massive crowd turned up.

The party reiterated its poll promise of waiving farm loan and increasing MSP of paddy besides pension to farmers and employment to youth in the state.

“The anti-farmer policies of BJP and BJD have destroyed the agri sector of Odisha. The Congress govt. in Odisha will ensure that our annadatas get their proper due,” Niranjan Patnaik said while addressing the huge gathering of farmers.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2019, 08:59:47 pm »

In Assam AGP has left the BJP led NDA over the new citizenship bill.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/agp-breaks-alliance-with-bjp-over-citizenship-bill/articleshow/67420676.cms

AGP's agenda is to block all Bengali migrants from Bangladesh (Hindu or Muslims) into Assam and expelled those that have migrated into Assam where possible.  BJP's agenda is to block Muslims from immigrating into Assam.  BJP's new citizenship bill gives religious minorities of Bangladesh (read Hindus) a path to citizenship if they immigrate to Assam.  This is unacceptable to AGP who left the BJP alliance as a result. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2019, 02:50:53 pm »

https://www.dnaindia.com/delhi/report-dna-exclusive-aap-congress-reach-deal-to-support-yashwant-sinha-2705483

It seems in Delhi INC and AAP have agreed to form an alliance where each will contest 3 out of 7 seats and both will back BJP rebel and former BJP Minister of Finance in the Vajpayee cabinet Yashwant Sinha in the 7th seat.   Former CM Sheila Diksh**t will also take over again as head of Delhi.  This is ironic as back in 2012-2013 AAP was THE anti-INC party and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal ran in 2013 in Sheila Diksh**t's seat to take her on directly and defeated her as the INC was crushed in the 2013 Delhi assembly elections.

Overall the INC and AAP base are fairly commutable and as long as the past bitterness at the leadership level can be overcome AAP-INC should be able to pose a significant challenge to the BJP.  Until the AAP-INC alliance it was accepted that the BJP will win all 7 Delhi seats.  Now it looks neck-to-neck.

On the other hand this will help SAD-BJP in Punjab.  AAP is already a much reduced force in Punjab since the 2015-2017 peak.  Now with AAP forming an alliance with INC in Delhi the AAP brand in Punjab as an anti-INC party in Sikh areas will take a hit and the AAP anti-INC base in Punjab will drift to SAD in Sikh areas.

So while this alliance could cost BJP ~3 seats in Delhi relative to baseline it could also cost INC ~2 seats in Punjab relative to baseline although that loss will most likely be to SAD and not BJP.

What would be interesting is if this might mean an INC-AAP alliance in Haryana where AAP is an ascendant force unlike Punjab.
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2019, 03:02:16 pm »

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/upper-castes-reservation-live-updates-modi-government-constitution-amendment-bill-lok-sabha-bjp-congress/1436840/

The Modi government has proposed a change in reservation law to add another 10% quota for lower income but upper caste members. 

Currently around 50% (could be as high as 60% depending on the state) of all educational and government job allocations are part of a quota.  Around 25% of such slots are resolved for Dalits and Tribals and another 25% are reserved for OBCs.  What Modi is proposing is that another 10% quota gets added to that for low income Upper Caste population.  The BJP concluded that its defeat in MP and Rajasthan assembly elections late 2018 was partly because the Upper Caste vote defected to INC as it is angered by BJP pandering to Dalits and OBCs.  So the BJP sought to do this as a way to get back the Upper Caste vote before the 2019 LS elections.

The opposition pretty much other than calling it a pre-election gimmik could not afford to vote against it.  Main problem here is this law, once passed, could be ruled illegal by the Supreme Court which had ruled that quotas based on economic criteria is not Constitutional as the Constitution  provides for reservation by community but not income.  Still I guess Modi will worry about this after the election.  In the meantime scoring some points with the Upper Castes is the order of the day for the BJP.

 
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2019, 08:21:29 am »

More alliance trouble for BJP.

In the Northeast key BJP ally NPP is under pressure to leave NDA over the new citizenship bill.  AGP already left NDA over it.  Main issue here is this new law will open the way for Bangladesh Hindus to migrate to the India Northeast with a path to citizenship.  Northeast regional parties like NPP and AGP were on the same page with the BJP to block Muslim migrants from Bangladesh to move in the the Northeast and in fact roll them back.  But BJP wants continued Hindu migration into the India Northeast which is bitterly opposed by the local parties that represents Ahom Hindus (AGP) and tribal Christians (NPP and others.)

In UP seeing that BJP could be in trouble nationally and in UP given the SP-BSP alliance, small allies like AD(S) and SBSP are upping the pressure for seats and more quotas for their OBC constituents or else they will quit.  Even these small parties figure that the overall political environment for the BJP now is a lot worse than it was in 2017 and 2014  and now is the time to get their pound of flesh.  Most likely BJP will have to accommodate them.  The BJP backup plan seems to be, in case AD(S) and/or SBSP leaves NDA is to lure RLD away from SP-BSP.  Jats tend to vote BJP during strong BJP years so the BJP-RLD alliance makes sense at the social level to consolidate Jats behind BJP.  Not sure RLD will bit though.

In Mahabharata it seems to be a game of chicken between BJP and SHS.   SHS is pretty much spitting venom at the Modi-Amit Shah combine on a daily basis and praising INC at every turn.  SHS also calls the BJP the Gujarat BJP (in reference to the Modi-Amit Shah Gujarat background) in order to show their support to the growing anti-Modi bloc in BJP.   For SHS it seems every political enemy of Modi-Shah is its friend in public.   It seems SHS's endgame is still to ally with BJP but on a seat split formula which is humiliating for the BJP and reassert the SHS as the senior partner in the alliance.  BJP Prez Amit Shah seems to be having none of this and is taking SHS head on saying that if SHS does not want to ally with BJP, then BJP will crush SHS in the LS elections and win 40+ seats on its own which only provokes more escalated vitriol from SHS.  SHS has made it clear that it support suspected anti-Modi cabinet member, ex-Prez of BJP and key member of BJP Maharashtra Nitin Gadkari for PM after the elections making it clear that SHS wants to reduce BJP MP seat count as much as possible so BJP has no choice but to form a broad coalition government where Modi will have to go.  It just seems the level of public vitriol between BJP and SHS could soon get to the point where neither side could back down from the game of chicken and the two cars will crash to the benefit of INC-NCP. 
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2019, 09:51:45 am »

In UP, SP and BSP formally announces alliance.  Out of 80 seats it will be split 38-38 between the two.  The alliance will not contest, as per tradition of SP, the 2 INC Gandhi seats.  Other 2 will be for smaller allies.  I assume by these numbers that SP and BSP will work out how to accommodate RLD later which will come from the two 38 38 quotas.



INC will go into a huddle to work out an UP strategy without being in the SP-BSP grand alliance.
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2019, 10:41:12 am »

New India TV-CNX Opinion Poll for LS which has it at

NDA   245
UPA    146
Other 152


It is basically the same poll it has from Dec but with different UP results since SP-BSP alliance is formalized.  The poll then adjusted NDA seat count from 41 to 29.


NDA at 245 will now for sure need AIADMK (10), YRSCP(19), and TRS(16) to get to a majority in which case it is very likely Modi will be out and I have strong reason to believe that AIADMK at 10 seats seems unlikely unless there can be a AIADMK-AMMK merger or at least alliance before the LS elections.
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2019, 10:45:37 am »

The Telegu speaking regions war between TDP and TRS is driving all sorts of alliance formation ahead of LS elections.  TDP and TRS are rivals due to the nature of the AP split of 2014 which created Telenaga.   BJP is fairly weak in both states which leads both parties to try to form opposition alliances that tries to isolate the other.

TDP is trying to form an opposition bloc that is friendly to INC and while not endorsing Rahul Gandhi as PM of the alliance for sure does not rule it out.  TDP's main rival in AP is YSRCP and so TDP needs an INC alliance to beat back YSRCP

TRS is trying to form a Fedreal front which is an opposition bloc that is both anti-BJP and anti-INC and is working to exclude INC from the opposition bloc. TRS's main rival in Telengana is INC and is allied with Muslim based AIMIM so there is a need of an anti-BJP element to it especially when BJP is fairly weak in Telangana anyway. 

If we go state by state and look at key regional parties we can sort of map out what each regional party is likely to do:

AP: YSRCP is for sure going to join up with TRS's Federal Front given that TDP is its main enemy.
     TDP is for sure part of the pro-UPA front since it is the party that is trying to push it.

Telengana: TRS is the leader of the Federal front
                 AIMIM is competing with INC for the Muslim vote across India so is with TRS

Assam: AGP just quit NDA.  As long as it does not go back and given it competes with Ahom votes with INC it is likely to join TRS's Federal Front
            AIUDF sees both INC and BJP as rivals so most likely align with Federal Front perhaps with AGP.

WB: AITC's main rival in WB will be BJP with INC as a minor rival and perhaps tactical ally.  More likely to join the pro-UPA front than the TRS's Federal front both TDP and TRS are heavily lobbying for AITC

UP: SP and BSP see BJP as the main rival and INC as a minor rival and perhaps tactical ally.  More likely to join the pro-UPA front than the TRS's Federal front both TDP and TRS are heavily lobbying for SP-BSP.  SP more likely lean pro-UPA while BSP which suspects that INC is out to poach her Dalit base most likely lean TRS's Federal Front

Bihar: JD(U)'s main rival is RJD so it is with BJP this time
          LJP always goes with the side that gives better deal which this time is BJP
          RJD sees JD(U) and BJP are main rivals and is allied with INC so clearly will be for the pro-UPA front
         RLSP and HAM see JD(U) as their main enemy and since JD(U) is with BJP is more likely to be for the pro-UPA front and alliance with INC

Karnataka: JD(S) is part of an alliance with INC since it needs INC support for its state government.  So in the past it JD(S) would be a prime candidate for the Federal Front since it traditionally see both BJP and INC as rivals this time around it will be part of the pro-UPA front.

TN: DMK has a long history of alliance with INC as a way to counter AIADMK and will be in the pro-UPA bloc
      AIADMK sees DMK as it main rival  so it will have to make a call if it should ally with BJP or join TRS's Federal front. Really comes down to SWOT analysis of BJP alliance
     MDMK wants to go with DMK this time so it will be part of pro-UPA bloc
     PMK,DMDK both were allies of BJP in the past and for now is disillusioned with BJP that for now they will not join up with BJP.  Both with try to see if they can join up with AIADMK or DMK and if not look into TRS's Federal front
     AIADMK splinter AMMK tends to be anti-BJP could either look for a reunification with AIADMK in which case there is no way a unified AIADMK would ally with BJP or look to join TRS's Federal front as AMMK does see DMK as a rival and not ally

Maharashtra: NCP is allied with INC and sees BJP as its main rival  so will go with pro-UPA front
                   SHS will have to make a call on alliance with BJP or perhaps aligning with the Federal Front.  Most likely will go with BJP alliance
                   MNS has taken an anti-BJP position and is trying to get into the INC-NCP alliance but will let be let in due to ideological reasons

Delhi:  AAP will have to make a call on if it wants to ally with INC or join Federal Front as it sees BJP as its main enemy

Punjab: SAD clearly is allied with BJP so this one is easy
            AAP here is both anti-SAD and anti-INC so is a prime candidate for Federal Front. But the Delhi AAP have different incentives (BJP is the main enemy) so this conflict will have to be worked out

Haryana: INLD sees BJP and INC as its main enemy and is allied to BSP.  Is a prime candidate for Federal Front

J&K: NC sees PDP and BJP as enemies and allied with INC so that part is easy. 
        PDP left its bizarre alliance with BJP but still sees NC-INC as rivals so is a candidate for Federal Front

Orissa: BJD see BJP and INC as rivals and is a good candidate for the Federal Front.

Chhattisgarh: INC splinter JCC which is allied with BSP sees both INC and BJP as rivals so most likely will be part of Federal Front

Jharkhand: JMM sees BJP as its main rival so will be allied with INC
                 JVM also sees BJP as its main rival so will most likely join INC as an ally but if seat talks break down might end up going to the Federal Front
                AJSU is in theory allied with BJP but it is not clear seats talks will end up well and AJSU might up aligning with the Federal Front
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2019, 08:20:35 pm »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/congress-announces-grand-alliance-in-jharkhand-for-lok-sabha-state-assembly-polls/articleshow/67577945.cms

In Jharkhand, INC announces that it has formed a Grand anti-BJP alliance with consist of INC, JMM, JVM, RJD, CPI. CPM, CPI(ML) and MCC.   The same alliance will contest assembly elections later in the year under the leadership of JMM which is led by former CM Hemat Soren.  It is a surprise INC could get the RJD to be in the same bloc as the Maoist CPI(ML) and MCC as the two forces have rival social bases (RJD have support in small landowners while CPI(ML) and MCC have support in landless laborers.)  Anyway the detail will be in the details as like Bihar getting to a workable seat sharing formula will be hard.  I think in the end CPI CPM CPI(ML) and MCC will break away since the larger parties will not be able to accommodate in the seat sharing.  Otherwise this is a coup for INC to get the old rivals JMM and JVM in the same bloc.

This development means that BJP will almost have to get AJSU to be in an alliance with BJP even if it has to give up a couple of extra seats to AJSU.
 
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2019, 02:16:20 pm »

For the Jharkhand Grand alliance it seems out of 14 LS seats INC will contest 6 seats, JMM 4, JVM 2, RLD 1, CPI 1.Not sure where that puts CPM or the Maoist CPI(ML) MCC although as I suspected they were not able to be accommodated.  On the whole I am surprised how little JVM got but I guess that reflects the revival of INC in Jharkhand which seems came at the expense of JVM.   


For the assembly JMM will clearly contest more seats as Hemat Soren will be projected as the CM candidate of the grand alliance.  This seems to be the repeat of the paradigm set in the INC-AIADMK alliance in TN in the 1980s and BJP-SHS allaince in Maharashtra in the 1990s and 2000s where the national party contest more LS seats but yields most seats in assembly elections to the regional party. 
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2019, 06:42:36 pm »

https://www.bloombergquint.com/bq-blue-exclusive/sp-bsp-alliance-why-mayawati-akhilesh-said-no-to-rahul-gandhi-and-erred-versus-modi#gs.mZyIN6E3

Makes the argument that UP SP-BSP alliance did not take INC into the the alliance because past history  shows that the INC Upper Caste base is not transferable to its allies.  Namely the 1996 BSP-INC alliance and the 2007 SP-INC alliance.


It also shows that the social bases of the SP-BSP alliance is roughly equal to the BJP+ base.


It also makes an argument that SP-BSP is not completely right since it argues that the OBC and Dalit bases of INC is transferable. 

I mostly agree but I think the transferable nature of the the INC vote really depends on the communal nature of the INC candidate and its ally.  The best way for SP-BSP and INC to take down the BJP is for a tactical alliance where in areas of INC strength the INC runs a Upper Caste candidate to cut into the BJP vote.  In the few BJP-INC marginal seats the SP-BSP should run a Upper Caste candidate to cut into the BJP vote.   Also a SP-BSP-INC alliance might play in the BJP trap of making the election more "Presidential" where Modi's relative popularity and name recognition could help the BJP.
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2019, 07:07:10 pm »

In Karnataka the last 2 weeks has been a non-stop crisis for the JD(S)-INC government.

The government vs BJP opposition seat breakdown was

Government
  JD(S)          38
  INC             80
  BSP              1
  KPJP             1
  pro-INC Ind  1
------------------------
                 220

Opposition
  BJP          104

But simmering beneath the surface there are 4 concurrent battles
1) JD(S) (which mostly represents Vokkaligas) vs INC rivalry as the CM is JD(S)'s Kumaraswamy and both JD(S) and INC MLAs are fighting for what they see as their fair share of resources and ministries
2) INC infighting between pro-Siddaramaiah (ex-CM and old JD(S) rebel and mostly lower caste) and anti-Siddaramaiah factions (most upper castes)
3) BJP vs INC struggle for the national narrative as the national party with momentum going into the 2019 LS elections
4) Internal BJP infighting between pro-Yeddyurappa (ex-CM who represents Lingayats) and anti-Yeddyurappa forces.

Due to JD(S)-INC battles as well as INC infighting some INC factions seems, starting a couple of weeks ago, to break away from INC.  Then the KPJP and pro-INC independent both broke away from the government which made the government-opposition balance  218-206.  Then 4 INC rebel MLAs disappeared and there seems to be talk that they might defect to BJP.  The BJP itself seems to be divided to push to overthrow the JD(S)-INC government.  BJP's Yeddyurappa is the mastermind of this most recent BJP attempt to take control of the government as this is his last chance to become CM while anti-Yeddyurappa BJP factions feel that doing so would only hurt BJP chances in the LS elections.

Main issue now is will more INC MLAs defect since 4 is not enough.  The Anti-defection law means that all such defectors will be expelled from the assembly and have to run for re-election.  So if the balance is 218-206 right now then the BJP has to get 12 MLAs to defect.  Some can be bribed with money.  Others can be bribed with giving them BJP nominations for LS elections coming up.  But all things equal this seems like a tall order.  Also INC-JD(S) can counterattack by trying to poaching BJP MLAs.

Both INC and BJP have been reduced to "Resort Politics" with to avoid their MLAs to be poached, all of them have been put in luxury resorts with strict control  over outside communications.    The cost of these hotel stays are over $400 a day for each MLA which is a large sum of money in India.  I guess it is worth given how much resources are stake. 
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« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2019, 07:28:29 pm »

WB CM and AITC leader organized a massive anti-BJP in Kolkata.  Pretty much all anti-BJP parties are with different degrees being allied with INC (from an INC ally to seeing BJP as a greater enemy than INC) represented





Parties represented are
INC
BSP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in UP)
SP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in UP)
AITC (INC as local rival but BJP is becoming a greater rival in WB)
JD(S) (INC as local rival but current ally against BJP in Karnataka)
NCP (INC ally in Maharastra to take on BJP)
TDP (INC as local rival but need INC alliance to take on its main rival YSRCP in AP)
AAP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in Delhi)
DMK (INC ally to take on main rival AIADMK in TN)
RJD (INC ally in Bihar and Jharkhand to take on BJP)
LJD (INC ally in Bihar to take on JD(U))
NC (INC ally in J&K)
RLD (SP ally in UP)
JMM (INC ally in Jharkhand)
JVM (INC as local rival but currently ally to take on BJP in Jharkhand)
ZNP (rival of INC in Mizoram but sees BJP ally MNF as an even greater rival)

Parties which are on paper anti-BJP or non-BJP who did not attend are
BJD (Rival of BJP in Orissa but for now sees INC as just as big as a rival)
TRS (On paper anti-BJP but in Telanagna INC is its main rival)
YRSCP (On paper anti-BJP but in is the main rival of TDP in AP who is now pro-INC so YSRCP is anti-INC)
AIADMK (Not even anti-BJP but neutral.  But with its enemy DMK being an ally of INC it will be either a de jure or de facto ally of BJP)
INLD (ally of BSP an sees BJP as an enemy in Haryana but sees INC as just as big of an enemy)
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« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2019, 02:59:22 pm »

Generally anti-BJP Deccan Herald did a state by state back-of-the-envelope of each state for the LS election

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/will-narendra-modi-come-back-713960.html

And concluded that if BJP did not get SHS to join it in an alliance, even if INC failed to form an alliance with TDP in AP and AAP in Delhi that the INC+ will edge out BJP+ ~190 to ~170


The analysis seems to assume the the Modi magic is completely gone and BJP has to fight based on basic alliance fundamentals and the ebb-and-flow of anti-incumbency.  One should see this as a floor of the BJP+ bloc and cap of the INC+ bloc. 
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« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2019, 04:03:06 pm »

The Wire points out despite Media painting the 2019 LS election as "Modi against ALL" it is in reality quite different on a state by state basis

https://thewire.in/politics/bjp-narendra-modi-2019-opposition-gathbandhan



It has

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI
UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC
Maharashtra: BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP (The Wire views BJP-SHS as inevitable)
WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC (All vs All)
TN: DMK-INC-MDMK-MNM vs AIADMK vs AMMK vs BJP (Perhaps AIADMK-BJP might ally)
Kerala: INC-AIFB-KEC(M)-IMUL vs CPM-CPI vs BJP-BDJS
Northeast: BJP vs INC vs Local BJP ally (Here All vs All helps BJP and local regional allies as BJP appeals to Hindu and local BJP allies appeals to Christians and running separately hurts catch-all parties like INC the most)
MP,Rajasthan,Uttarakhand,HP,Gujarat,Chhattisgarh,Goa,Union territories: BJP vs INC
Pubjab: INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP
Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC (most likely AAP-INC alliance will not take place)
Haryana: BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP vs JJP (INLD splinter)
Odisha: BJD vs BJP vs INC
AP: TDP-INC vs YRSCP (backed by TRS-AIMIM) vs BJP
Telangana: TRS-AIMIM-YSRCP vs INC-TDP vs BJP 
Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP
Jharkhand: BJP-LJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD-CPI vs AJSU (AJSU might ally with BJP)
J&K: BJP vs PDP vs INC-NC
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2019, 04:06:29 pm »

Another example of my defection story template

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.


https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/impressed-with-rahul-gandhi-unhappy-with-bjp-leader-quits-party-1434281-2019-01-19

Quote
A former BJP parliamentarian announced his resignation from the party on Friday. Uday Singh, an ex-BJP MP who has represented Bihar's Purnea Lok Sabha constituency twice, alleged the party has surrendered before the discredited Janata Dal (United) headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Quote
Although Singh did not reveal his future plans, he dropped plenty of hints suggesting he may join a Grand Alliance constituent.  Singh praised Congress president Rahul Gandhi for his growing popularity. He claimed that PM Modi has withdrawn himself from reality, even if he had good intentions.

Quote
Singh also claimed widespread resentment among the BJP cadre over the alleged undemocratic style of the party leadership.
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« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2019, 04:25:55 pm »

The Wire points out despite Media painting the 2019 LS election as "Modi against ALL" it is in reality quite different on a state by state basis

https://thewire.in/politics/bjp-narendra-modi-2019-opposition-gathbandhan



It has

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI
UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC
Maharashtra: BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP (The Wire views BJP-SHS as inevitable)
WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC (All vs All)
TN: DMK-INC-MDMK-MNM vs AIADMK vs AMMK vs BJP (Perhaps AIADMK-BJP might ally)
Kerala: INC-AIFB-KEC(M)-IMUL vs CPM-CPI vs BJP-BDJS
Northeast: BJP vs INC vs Local BJP ally (Here All vs All helps BJP and local regional allies as BJP appeals to Hindu and local BJP allies appeals to Christians and running separately hurts catch-all parties like INC the most)
MP,Rajasthan,Uttarakhand,HP,Gujarat,Chhattisgarh,Goa,Union territories: BJP vs INC
Pubjab: INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP
Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC (most likely AAP-INC alliance will not take place)
Haryana: BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP vs JJP (INLD splinter)
Odisha: BJD vs BJP vs INC
AP: TDP-INC vs YRSCP (backed by TRS-AIMIM) vs BJP
Telangana: TRS-AIMIM-YSRCP vs INC-TDP vs BJP 
Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP
Jharkhand: BJP-LJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD-CPI vs AJSU (AJSU might ally with BJP)
J&K: BJP vs PDP vs INC-NC

Wow, even though India is sort of a 2 party country (INC vs BJP) there aren't that many states where the election will be a straight INC vs BJP affair without anyone else
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« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2019, 09:11:13 pm »

Some more bad news for the BJP on the alliance front.  In Jharkhand, BJP ally AJSU will most likely go its own way.  The BJP won 12 out of 14 seats here in 2014 so I doubt the BJP can accommodate AJSU anyway.  The INC-JMM-JVM-RJD-CPI alliances is also full and would not take on AJSU.  JD(U) is looking to expand in  Jharkhand again and could ally with AJSU but the JD(U) base last couple of years have mostly go over to a resurgent INC.

In WB, pro-Gorkhaland GJM which already broke ties with the BJP last year seems to have decided to ally with AITC which means a clear net loss for the BJP in the Darjeeling seat which it won in 2014 due to support from GJM. 
 
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« Reply #21 on: January 22, 2019, 09:22:09 pm »

Wow, even though India is sort of a 2 party country (INC vs BJP) there aren't that many states where the election will be a straight INC vs BJP affair without anyone else

I think over time INC has slowing became a non-tier one party in many key states one at a time.  The history of this process are

1967 Kerala - after the 1967 assembly elections it was clear that INC can only win with regional allies to take on Left front.  So while INC is a key play but it has to share power with allies (namely KEC(M) and MUL.)
1977 TN - after the 1977 assembly elections it was clear that INC can no longer win power on its own and has to be the junior partner of DMK or AIADMK
1991 UP - after the 1991 LS elections it was clear that INC can no longer win a majority on its own as its key vote bases has shifted to SP (Muslims), BSP (Dalits) and BJP (Upper Castes) and will become a second tier party
1991 Bihar - after the 1991 LS elections it was clear that INC can no longer win a majority on its own as its key vote bases has shifted to proto-RJD (Muslims) and BJP (Upper Castes) and will become a second tier party
1998 WB - after the 1998 LS elections it was clear that INC has lost its role as THE anti-Left Front party it is splinter AITC and will be a second tier party
1999 Maharashtra - after the 1999 assembly elections it is clear that INC can no longer win a majority on its own without allying with its splinter NCP.  INC will have to share power going forward 
2005 Jharkhand - after the 2005 assembly elections it is clear that INC can only win if it allies with a regional party (JMM or JVM).  It is relevant but has to share power
2014 AP - after the 2014 assembly elections it is clear that INC has lost its position as THE anti-TDP party to its splinter YSRCP and that it will be a second tier party
2015 Delhi - after the 2015 assembly elections it is clear that AAP has taken over as THE anti-BJP party and that INC will be a second tier party
2018 Tripura - after the 2018 assembly elections it is clear that BJP has taken over as THE anti-Left front party and INC will be a second tier party
2018 Nagaland - after the 2018 assembly elections it is clear that NPF splinter NDPP-BJP has taken over as THE anti-NPF party and that INC will be a second tier party
2019 Orissa - most likely after the 2019 Orissa assembly election INC might lose its position as THE anti-BJD party to BJP and become a second tier party in a worse case scenario. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: January 23, 2019, 05:54:46 am »

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra Appointed Congress General Secretary For Uttar Pradesh
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/priyanka-gandhi-vadra-appointed-congress-general-secretary-for-uttar-pradesh-east-live-updates-1981935



INC plays its trump card.  Rahul Gandhi's older sister as well as daughter of Sonia Gandhi enters active politics.  She was always seen as being the more popular of the Gandhi siblings but did not enter politics due to the views of her husbands family.   Given the rising popularity of Rahul Gandhi due to his victory in the late 2018 assembly elections I think impact of this is smaller than what the INC cadres might hope.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: January 23, 2019, 02:35:58 pm »

Latest India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation poll for UP after the announcement of SP-BSP alliance has bad news for BJP.

If it is BJP-AD vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC it is
      
                  Seats   Vote share
BJP-AD         18            36%
SP-BSP-RLD  58           46%
INC                4           12%



And if INC joins the SP-BSP-RLD alliance BJP will be down to single digits

                       Seats    Vote share
BJP-AD                 5         36%
SP-BSP-INC-RLD  75        58%


I mostly do not buy the BJP-AD vs SP-BSP-INC-RLD result as a good part of the INC Upper Caste bast would drift to BJP so just adding the INC vote share to the SP-BSP-RLD vote share is not a valid way of projecting results.   Still for BJP-AD to poll 36% vs 43.3% in 2014 should be worrying for BJP.

Also for INC to poll at 12% if pretty positive for INC as that gives INC some room negotiate a tactical alliance with SP-BSP-RLD and gain some support in the dozen seats where INC base is relevant.  And the poll is before Priyanka Gandhi announced that she is entering politics.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2019, 03:25:28 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: January 23, 2019, 10:04:19 pm »

How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?
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