2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #75 on: February 18, 2019, 09:57:07 AM »

After the 2004 LS elections the INC led UPA government was installed at the federal level while Naveen Patnaik led the BJD-BJP government in Orissa.  In the lead up to the 2009 LS and Orissa assembly election, using the pretext of Hindu-Christian communal conflict  Naveen Patnaik broke off BJD's alliance with BJP.  Most likely this was based on the fact that the BJP seems unlikely to win the 2009 LS elections and that INC has been reduced by 9 years of BJD rule that Naveen Patnaik feels that he can take on INC without support from BJP.  The 2009 LS and Orissa assembly election would prove him right.

2009 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  6             32.75%

BJD+        21                 15             41.75% (CPI CPM NCP were part of BJD+)

BJP           21                  0             16.89%

SAMO        7                   0               0.74% (BJP splinter)

JMM           4                   0              1.75%

BSP          19                   0              1.90%


2009 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          146                27            29.02%

INC rebel                         2              2.77%

BJD+        147              109            41.59%  (CPI CPM NCP were part of BJD+)
 
BJD rebel                         1              1.04%

SKD            1                   1             0.25% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP+         146                 7            15.27%
 
SAMO         99                 0              1.05% (BJP splinter)
  
JMM           32                 0              1.58%

BSP          113                 0              1.52%

BJD splinter OGP have since merged into NCP which in turn allied with BJD.  BJD now without BJP as an ally was able to pull in CPI CPM and NCP as allies which added to its vote share.  The INC effort was led again by  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and was once again defeated with INC not being able to take advantage of the BJD BJP split given the large number of INC rebels and large decrease in BJD rebels relative to 2004.  At the national level UPA won re-election while  Naveen Patnaik  continued as CM with a BJD majority on its own.  After 2009 INC high command had enough of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and "retired" him by making him governor of Assam.
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« Reply #76 on: February 18, 2019, 04:26:05 PM »

BJP and SHS has made a deal. BJP gets 25 and SHS 23 seats in Maharashtra. In 2014 it was BJP 24, SHS 20 and others 4.

In UPA NCP got 24 seats allocated to them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #77 on: February 18, 2019, 05:41:04 PM »

BJP and SHS has made a deal. BJP gets 25 and SHS 23 seats in Maharashtra. In 2014 it was BJP 24, SHS 20 and others 4.

In UPA NCP got 24 seats allocated to them.

As expected.  It seems they also agreed to split the Maharashtra assembly election seats 50/50.   To be fair it will not be BJP 25 SHS 23.  Both parties will have to give up some seats for other allies like RPI, RSP and BVA.  SWP which went with BJP-SHS in 2014 most likely will go with INC-NCP while BVA which was part of INC-NCP in 2014 will most likely go with BJP-SHS this time.  It will be interesting to see what SHS splinter and now avowed anti-Modi NMS will do in now.  Most likely some sort of tactical alliance with INC-NCP where NMS no run and de facto INC-NCP in a bunch of seats and in parts of Mumbai where NMS is strong the INC-NCP will run weak candidates and de facto back NMS to take on SHS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #78 on: February 18, 2019, 05:49:38 PM »

It seems that AIADMK-BJP alliance will be announce soon.  It seems it will be AIADMK 25 BJP 15 for the 40 seats in TN/Pondicherry.  Of course this is just the first cut and these seats will have to be carved out between other possible allies like PMK DMDK TMC and AINRC (in Pondicherry).
Most likely it will be AIADMK 20 BJP 8 PMK 5 DMDK 4 PT 1 TMC 1 AINRC 1.  KMK might get a seat.  PMK is also in talks with DMK-INC but is demanding 6 seats and there is no way DMK-INC who feel they are en route to a landslide victory will give away that many seats so PMK will most likely have to go with AIADMK-BJP.  Of course unless somehow AMMK can be brought into the AIADMK-BJP bloc the DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-CPI bloc seems likely to sweep TN especially given the toxic brand of the BJP in TN.  What AIADMK-BJP have to hope for is the anti-BJP vote is split between DMK-INC and AMMK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: February 18, 2019, 09:28:37 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2019, 07:27:14 AM by jaichind »

To finish up Orissa election history, after 2009 LS election UPA was returned to power as well as  Naveen Patnaik's BJD at the Orissa state level.  2009-2014 saw a rapid drop in support for INC due to corruption scandals as well as poorly handled Telengana split from AP and a surge of support for BJP.  In Orissa without Janaki Ballabh Patnaik leading INC did leave INC gaining since it was now without the negative image of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik  but left it leaderless and rudderless losing more ground to BJP and BJD.  For 2014 the anti-INC mood mostly pushed the anti-INC vote to BJD with BJP making very limited gains even as the Modi wave swept across the rest of India.

2014 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  0             26.38%

AOP            9                  0               0.74% (INC splinter)

BJD           21                20             44.77%

BJP           21                  1             21.88%

CPI+          5                   0              0.48% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JMM           1                   0              0.82%

BSP          21                   0              1.03%

AAP          18                   0              0.70%


2014 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          147                10            26.04%

INC rebel                         1              2.25%

AOP            76                 0              1.03%

BJD          147              117            43.91%
 
BJD rebel                         1              0.87%

SKD           51                  1              0.41% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP           147               16            18.22%
 
CPI+           44                  1              0.90% (CPM was part of CPI+)
  
JMM           13                 0              1.04%

BSP          113                 0              0.87%

AAP          106                 0              0.61%

The INC was crushed and Naveen Patnaik's BJD was returned to power as the BJP rode Modi's wave to power at the federal level.  Since 2014 Naveen Patnaik's BJD has taken a pro-BJP position even as the BJP grew in Orissa to be the main opponent for BJD as INC's fortunes continues to decline.  INC splinter AOP merged into BJD.  For 2019 LS and assembly elections Naveen Patnaik will lead BJD into battle against a surging BJP and a weakening INC.  INC most likely will try to have an alliance with JMM and CPI-CPM to try to avoid a complete collapse of the INC vote.  Most likely for 2019 we will see as BJD vs BJP battle.

The narrative of election history of Orissa is the steady decline of INC from the most powerful party in the state to a permanent state of opposition against BJD-BJP to a second tier party where it is no longer even in contention to win power anymore.  Despite his organizational skills long time INC leader Janaki Ballabh Patnaik with his long list of scandals and died in 2015 has to take most of the blame.
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: February 19, 2019, 07:45:50 AM »

AIADMK PMK BJP forms alliance in TN

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/its-official-bjp-aiadmk-pmk-mega-alliance-tn-general-elections-2019-96999



Not clear where is DMDK or TMC.  I assume they will be roped in later.  I also assume they will back AINRC in Pondicherry
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jaichind
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« Reply #81 on: February 19, 2019, 08:14:43 AM »

Since TN is in the news due to AIADMK-BJP-PMK alliance it would be interesting to talk about MDMK and how it is part of the DMK-INC alliance.  MDMK was formed in 1993 by Vaiko


Vaiko was the right hand man of DMK leader Karunanidhi in the 1980s and was viewed as his natural successor


But by the early 1990s it was clear that Karunanidhi  was grooming his son Stalin to be his successor


That fact should have been clearly in the 1970s since the future role of Stalin was part of the cause of the Karunanidhi-MGR fued in the 1970s and MGR leading AIADMK as a DMK splinter in 1972 when  DMK leader and TN CM Karunanidhi was trying to push his son Stalin into politics and saw MGR popularity as a threat to Stalin's future in DMK.


Seeing that Karunanidhi was pushing Stalin into the #2 spot in the DMK  Vaiko quit DMK in 1993 and formed MDMK.  In theory the reason was that Vaiko felt that the DMK was not taking a strong enough pro-LTTE position in Sri Lanka but in reality it was all about Stalin. MDMK since then has taken a anti-DMK position in TN politics except for a brief 2004-2006 period when it was part of a grand anti-AIADMK alliance led by DMK.

Now after Karunanidhi passed away in 2018 Vaiko has joined with Stalin led DMK and will be working toward Stalin becoming CM in the next TN assembly election.  Which pretty much means there was no real point on why even MDMK was formed in the first place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: February 24, 2019, 10:18:34 PM »

There seems to be an assumption that the BJP-SHS alliance in Maharashtra should mean a sweep of BJP-SHS similar to 2014.  I do not see why that is the case.  The fact is the BJP-SHS split which only ended recently with a patched up alliance has already seen the SHS paint the BJP led by Modi-Amit Shah as the Gujarati BJP.  This narrative will not go away overnight with the re-creation of the alliance.  Also if SHS ran separately from SHS could have picked up and even split the anti-incumbent vote from INC-NCP.  Now a good part of the SHS Maratha base could go over to SHS splinter NMS or even NCP led by Maratha leader Sharad Pawar.  I say that BJP-SHS will most likely split the Maharashtra seats with INC-NCP down the middle.

It also seems SHS has ulterior motives for being a part of BJP led alliance.  If BJP itself does not cross 200 seats SHS could play a role to overthrow Modi and put in pro-SHS and Maratha leader Nitin Gadkari as PM. And if BJP falls below 160 seats SHS might even back Sharad Pawar as PM.  Either way SHS was to able to take credit for putting a Maratha in the PM seat and lock in the Maratha vote for SHS.  Of course if BJP get about 220 seats then it will be Modi and SHS will have to accept its place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: February 27, 2019, 03:00:13 PM »

Well, clearly the India-Pakistan escalation is getting more heated.  I am not so sure this actually works in the BJP advantage.  If India can be viewed as "winning" the escalation with Pakistan Kargil  in 1999 then for sure that will help the incumbent PM.  And even then it is not clear if the 1999 BJP victory was because of the Kargil conflict or the way Vajpayee was brought down in 1999 and the vote more about rejecting the opportunistic politics regional parties like AIADMK.   Given that a Indian plant was shot down an a pilot capture and becoming a POW I am not sure India is "winning" this escalation. 

I think all things equal this conflict should help BOTH BJP and INC at the expense of various regional players.  Really depends on this conflict plays out but that is my hunch.
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jaichind
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« Reply #84 on: February 27, 2019, 05:07:17 PM »

Since the current India-Pakistan standoff is trigger by the Kashmir conflict (again) and it is likely that J&K will have assembly elections this Spring along with LS elections it would be useful to go over the election history of J&K.

J&K or Jammu and Kashmir should really be called Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladkah since it is 3 separate regions..  The root causes of the conflict is mostly well known where the Hindu Maharaja of Muslim majority Kashmir wanted to stay independent versus joining India or Pakistan in 1947.   Sheikh Abdullah of JKN which was the main political party in Kashmir was a friend of Indian INC PM Nehru.   


Pakistan feared that Sheikh Abdullah will push Kashmir into India so they launch and invasion of Kashmir in 1947 which led to the unoccupied part Kashmir joining India as an autonomous region called J&K.


Due to the special nature of how J&K joined India it was given special autonomous powers spelled out in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.   Elections are held every 6 years as opposed to 5 and the CM role is actually called PM (Sheikh Abdullah being the first PM of J&K leading a JKN ministry.)   India J&K itself having 3 separate sub-regions of Kashmir (mostly Muslim), Jammu(Hindu majority but significant number of Muslims) and Ladkah (very thinly populated with Buddhist plurality but a significant and growing Muslim minority.)
In 1962 PRC-India war the PRC also took over Aksai Chin (the Chinese position which is also my is that Ladkah is also part of China but I guess I will mention this one and stay away from that issue.)


The status of Kashmir became very controversial.  INC wanted to make sure J&K stay in India, proto-BJP (BJS) was very concerned about the special status of J&K and wanted to get rid of Article 370 and Sheikh Abdullah and his JKN took on a sovereigntist position that the population of an undivided Kashmir should make the final decision on the status of Kashmir.   All this came ahead in 1953 when INC split JKN and overthrew Sheikh Abdullah  to ensure that JKN does not become a force that might take J&K out of India.  Sheikh Abdullah  was then jailed with a pro-INC JKN continued.

In 1964 JKN merged into INC while the pro-Sheikh Abdullah  faction of JKN took on the JKN name.
 Soon after that Sheikh Abdullah was freed as part of a deal with Nehru to represent India in talks with Pakistan on a solution to the Kashmir problem.  Then Nehru passed away and things got frozen again with Sheikh Abdullah frozen out of power.  In 1965 the PM of J&K position was renamed to CM but the 6 year election cycle (vs 5 years in the rest of India) continued.   Elections continued but with JKN boycotting elections.

As time went out it was clear that Sheikh Abdullah was the most popular politician of J&K and freezing him out of power was reducing India's legitimacy in J&K, especially the Kashmir region.  So in 1975 Indira Gandhi made a deal with Sheikh Abdullah where Sheikh Abdullah was made CM and a INC-JKN alliance formed.  The 1977 LS election JKN-INC alliance swept the polls in J&K while INC was defeated in North India.  What was a warning for India was that proto-JMI which is a Kashmir separatist group came onto the scene and is beginning to take some votes in Kashmir.

With a JNP government installed at the federal level JKN saw no more need to ally with INC.  The 1977 J&K assembly elections later in 1977 it was a 3 way battle between JKN INC and JNP with JKN winning a majority.  INC and JNP tend to be stronger in Hindu Jammu and JKN sweeping Kashmir.

The 1980 LS elections saw JKN form an alliance with JNP with JKN winning the Kashmir seats and INC winning the Jammu/Ladkah seats while INC stormed back to power at the federal level.  In 1982 Sheikh Abdullah passed away and his son Farooq Abdullah took over JKN and the CM of J&K.


By the 1983 assembly elections JNP mostly imploded with BJP taking its place but in a weak position even in Hindu Jammu.  In 1983 it was a JKN vs INC battle with JKN winning with JMI and  separatist  JKPC still playing a minor role in Kashmir.  In 1984 was when the J&K began to head downward fast.  One of Indira Gandhi's last acts a few month before she was assassinated was that he arranged for the JKN to be split  with Farooq Abdullah's brother-in-law Ghulam Mohammad Shah leading a bloc of JKN MLAs to create a splinter JKN party and became CM with INC support.  Farooq Abdullah's JKN started to fight in the streets to the loss of power.  The war in Afghanistan against the USSR  also led to a surge of Islamic radicalism which also led to greater protests.   Law and order became such an issue as to make J&K ungovernable and the Ghulam Mohammad Shah ministry had to be dismissed in 1986.

Rajiv Ghandhi then made a deal with  Farooq Abdullah where in the 1987 election JKN-INC will form an alliance and pretty much monopolize power in J&K.  But the genie has been let out of the bottle.  The Islamic radicalism which JKN help to promote when it was out of power took a life of its own and used JMI as a core to form a grand radical Muslim-Kashmir separatist umbrella MUF.  In order to make sure MUF does not make gains there was significant rigging of the election results with MUF winning only 4 seats.  It was estimated that MUF should have won 20+ seats in the 76 member J&K assembly.   Separatist  JKPC running separately clearly did not help the MUF cause.  But the 1987 assembly election was a clear turning point. All truest in the Indian government and election process in Kashmir disappeared.  Law and order totally broken down as armed insurgency became the main method of opposition.   Radical Islam began to dominate in Kashmir where large number of Hindus were driven out of Kashmir in 1989-1990.  The 1989 LS election saw turnout in Kashmir crash to single digits with JKN taking meaningless victories in Kashmir.  By 1990 Kashmir was a war zone and  the   Farooq Abdullah government had to be dismissed and he left India soon after that .  In the 1990-1996 period no elections took place in J&K as Kashmir moved into a insurgency conflict.

After years of battle the insurgency began to recede that by 1996 LS elections J&K was able to hold elections even as JKN boycotted them.  A JD government came into power after the 1996 LS elections and made a deal with Farooq Abdullah  for him to return and lead JKN in the 1996 J&K assembly election.  The 1996 was the first post-insurgency election and saw a landslide JKN victory and Farooq Abdullah reinstalled as CM of J&K

1996 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          85                 7             20.40%

INC rebel                         1              1.80%

AIIC(T)        9                  1              0.70% (INC splinter)

JKN            81                57             34.78%

JKN rebel                         1              2.73%

JKAL          27                  1              2.43% (JKN splinter)

BJP            53                  8            12.13%

BJP rebel                         0              0.88%

JD             76                  5            10.87%

BSP           29                  4              6.43%

JKNPP        27                  1              2.25% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            4                  1              0.96%

JKN mostly swept the Kashmir seats and the Jammu seats are mostly split between INC, BJP, JD, and BSP with JKN winning the Muslim seats in Jammu.  The various separatists opposition and insurgency mostly boycotted the polls but they would not have done well given the damage they inflicted during the peak of the insurgency in the early 1990s. 
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« Reply #85 on: February 27, 2019, 06:31:29 PM »

The Indian Armed Forces just conducted raids on alleged terror camps in Pakistan.
Unsurprisingly the opposition backed the government. For Indian internal politics this clearly
gives a boost to the Prime Minister who will now, at least for a brief period, be seen as a statesman in the public eye.
The question will now be how Pakistan responds. If they keep things to diplomatic complaining and dont escalate the situation further, Pakistan will be internationally seen as the sensible one and the Boost for Modi will largely subside as other Issues become more important.
However if Pakistan escalates militarily they keep the issue on the Agenda during the elections, and that is certainly what the BJP wants.


Pakistan is the one who started this, as they clearly committed an attack of war
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« Reply #86 on: February 28, 2019, 09:52:08 AM »

After the return of Farooq Abdullah's JKN to power to J&K tensions continue to diffuse in J&K as the armed insurgency continues to fall.   In the meantime the JD government at the federal level with outside INC support continues to bicker and loses support to BJP.  The fall of the JD government in 1998 and midterm LS election saw a BJP surge and a BJP government formed.  In J&K the BJP surge came in Hindu Jammu as BJP became the dominate party in Jammu while JKN continue to dominate Kashmir.

1998 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             6                  1             19.24%

INC rebel                        0               4.32%

JKN            6                  3              36.35%

KAL            1                   0              0.97% (JKN splinter)

BJP            6                   2             28.64%

BSP            4                  0              4.97%

The BJP government at the federal level was pulled down by AIADMK in 1999 leading to 1999 LS elections.  In between the 1998 and 1999 LS elections two key events took place which would have a large impact on J&K politics.

First India and Pakistan fought a low intensity called the Kargil War (Kragil being in Ladkah) which India mostly prevailed but had the two nuclear power coming to total war led to a rethink on both sides to find ways to deescalate the Kasmir conflict.  This would play a key role in the early 2000s thaw in conflict in J&K.  Second INC Muslim leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed left INC to form his separate PDP.  Mufti was a member of JKN back in the 1950s and stayed in the pro-INC faction of JKN after  Sheikh Abdullah was removed from power.  He joined INC when the pro-INC JKN faction merged into INC.  In the late 1980s he had a falling out with Rajiv Gandhi and joined JD.  He rejoined INC in the early 1990s but in 1999 left INC again when it was clear that Sonia Gandhi was now the top dog in INC as he is from the anti-Rajiv Gandhi branch of INC.  PDP platform is more sovereigntist while JKN is more pro-autonomy.


The creation of PDP led J&K to turn into a 4 party system (JKN INC BJP PDP) where JKN will fight PDP in Kashmir and Muslims pars of Jammu while INC will fight BJP in Hindu parts of Jammu.   The 1999 LS election took place too quick for PDP to make a big splash but it was able to capture some vote share.  The BJP surge continues eating into the INC Hindu vote.

1999 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             5                  0             17.83%

JKN            6                  4              28.94%

JKAL           3                   0              1.84% (JKN splinter)

PDP            4                  0              6.86%

BJP            6                   2             31.56%

BSP            2                  0              4.84%

After the BJP returned to power in a bid to de-escalate the J&K problem the BJP brought JKN into the NDA with Farooq Abdullah's and and heir Omar Abdullah joining the NDA cabinet.
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jaichind
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« Reply #87 on: March 01, 2019, 08:23:46 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2019, 12:42:33 PM by jaichind »

The 2002 J&K assembly election took place under a circumstance of thaw in the Kashmir conflict.  Also the BJP is clearly running into anti-incumbency at the federal level.  Both trends tend to help the INC relative to the BJP in the Jammu area.  The rise of an sovereigntist alternative in the PDP is also drawing some of the separatist vote to come out to PDP which means that JKN loses ground in Kashmir to PDP.  The result of this 4 way fight was a clear hung assembly.

2002 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          81                23             25.27%

INC rebel                         3               2.72%

DM              1                  1              0.62% (INC splinter)

JKN            85                28             28.24%

JKN rebel                         3              1.73%

PDF             2                  1              0.80% (JKN splinter)

JKAL            9                  1              0.91% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         64                17            11.32%

PDP rebel                         1             0.82%

BJP+          63                  2            10.48%

BJP rebel                         0              1.08%

BSP           33                  1              4.50%

JKNPP        36                  4             3.83% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            7                  2              0.88%

Both PDP and INC outperformed relative to the 1999 LS election results.  The PDP effort was especially helped by the efforts of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's daughter Mehbooba Mufti who was his clear political heir.


After much haggling a PDP-INC government was formed by cobbling up various independents with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed taking on the CM role for 3 years out of the 6 year term and INC taking the CM for the remaining 3 years.  This election cemented the 4 party system of J&K.  If you look at the spectrum of Muslim and Hindu the relative lean of each of these 4 parties are

      BJP                INC                 JKN                 PDP
  <-------------------------------------------------------->
 Hindu                                                               Muslim

with BJP appealing to Hindu and very little Muslims, PDP appealing to Muslims and very little Hindus, INC appealing to mostly Hindus but some Muslims, and JKN appealing to mostly Muslims but some Hindus.  Obviously parties like BSP appeal to Dalits which would be mostly Hindus.  So in Hindu districts it would be BJP vs INC with JKN sometimes getting in there.  In Muslim seats it would be JKN vs PDP with INC sometimes getting in there.  In Buddhist plurality Ladkah it is mostly INC vs BJP for the Buddhist vote with a clear INC advantage and JKN vs PDP for the Muslim vote with JKN with a clear advantage.

The 2004 LS elections which saw BJP defeated at the federal level saw INC and its local ally PDP forming a tactical alliance and taking most of the seats but JKN still doing well enough to best PDP in the Kashmir region as anti-incumbency builds up against PDP in Kashmir.

2004 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          4                  3              30.81% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of INC+)

PDP            3                  1              11.94%

JKN            6                  2              22.02%

BJP            6                   0             23.04%

BSP            3                  0              2.22%

JKNPP        4                   0              3.02% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

BJP outperformed their 2002 assembly election vote share but that is partly because turnout for LS elections in Kashmir is lower relative to Jammu.  It is sort of SF in North Ireland not taking their seats in the UK parliament.  Separatists in Kashmir do not recognize Indian rule so they often do not turn out in LS elections but will turn out, starting in the early 2000s for assembly elections.  So the relative vote count in Jammu in higher than Kashmir in LS elections.   Of course part of it is because BJP does better in LS elections given that popular BJP PM  Vajpayee is running at the top of the BJP effort.  Of course the BJP level of support is a significant drop relative to 1998 and 1999 at the peak of the Vajpayee  wave.   Most of that drop went to INC.
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« Reply #88 on: March 01, 2019, 12:42:16 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2019, 06:52:38 PM by jaichind »

The 2008 J&K assembly election saw the INC and PDP alliance fall apart and running separately.  The INC lost ground across the board due to anti-incumbency at the federal level with BJP making gains at the expense of INC in Jammu.

2008 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          82                17             18.71%

INC rebel                         0               3.38%
 
JKN+          87               29             23.61% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of JKN+)

JKN rebel                         0              1.91%

PDF            27                 1              1.80% (JKN splinter)

JKANC        56                 0              1.02% (JKN splinter)

PDP            78               21            15.33%

PDP rebel                         0             1.40%

JKDPN        25                 1              1.25% (PDP splinter)

BJP             64               11            12.44%

BJP rebel                         2              1.36%

JKPC            2                 0              0.38% (Separatist)

BSP           83                  1              3.67%

JKNPP        36                  3             3.33% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            8                  1              0.80%

AIP             1                  1              0.20% (Separatist)

This election saw the participation of separatist outfits for the first time since the 1980s.  After some haggling JKN and INC formed an alliance and formed the government with JKN's Omar Abdullah  as CM as JKN leader Farooq Abdullah continued to work at the federal level.  

This JKN-INC alliance continued in the 2009 LS election where where INC outperformed in Northern India as well as Jammu leading to JKN-INC victory.

2009 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  5              43.78% (JKN was part of INC+)

JKN rebel                        0               0.94%
INC rebel                        0               1.25%

LUTF           1                  1                0.87% (Buddhist Ladkah party)

PDP            6                  0              20.05%

BJP            4                   0             18.61%

JKPC          1                   0              2.51% (Separatist)

BSP            5                  0              3.10%

JKNPP        2                   0             2.81% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

In Ladkah INC and JKN rebels running against the INC candidate threw the election to LUTF  which is really a Buddhist Ladkah INC splinter.  INC won re-election at the federal level as well.  Once again JKPC which is a Separatist party also ran in this election.
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« Reply #89 on: March 04, 2019, 01:37:37 PM »

The 2014 LS elections where held with INC credibility shot and the surge of the Modi wave.  In J&K JKN-INC ran as allies to no avail as there was also anti-incumbency against the JKN-INC government.  The result was a PDP sweep of Kashmir and BJP sweep of Jammu.  In Ladkah INC splinter LUTF ran on the BJP ticket and won with an INC rebel to split INC vote.

2014 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  0              34.29% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.33%

PDP+         6                  3              21.52% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            6                   3             32.65%

JKPC          1                   0              2.01% (Separatist)

BSP            4                  0              1.53%

JKNPP        5                   0             1.23% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             0.62%  (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K LS election (Kashmir)

JKN           3                  0              34.86% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.41%

PDP           3                   3             46.89%

BJP            3                   0              1.38%

JKPC          1                   0              6.25% (Separatist)

JKNPP        3                   0             0.80% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             1.94%  (Separatist)

In Kashmir it is mostly PDP vs JKN (backed by INC).  With the situation deteriorating in Kashmir the Muslim vote swung over to the sovereignists PDP on an anti-incumbent wave.  The Separatist vote is also growing.  BJP is very weak here as there are very few Hindus left in Kashmir.
 


2014 J&K LS election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           1                  0              22.60%

INC rebel                        0             26.60%

ISK            1                  0              24.17% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            1                   1             26.63% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF ran on BJP ticket)

Here the Muslim vote split between the ISK and INC Muslim rebel.  LUTF running as BJP was able to win enough of the Buddhist vote away from the INC candidate to win.



2014 J&K LS election (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            2                  0              34.60% (backed by JKN)

PDP            2                  0                8.73%

BJP            2                  2              48.56%

BSP           2                  0                2.09%

JKNPP        2                  0               1.51% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

Here it is INC (backed by JKN) vs BJP with PDP taking some votes in Muslim areas.  The Hindu vote clearly swung over to BJP by a large margin leaving it with a clear victory.

After the LS election a BJP government was formed at eh federal level.  The INC-JKN alliance ended given the disastrous election results.  The thinking in both parties was that part of its base defected to BJP (for INC) or PDP (for JKN) given the negativity toward the other ally.  And for the upcoming J&K assembly election it is best to part ways to try to save as many votes as possible.  
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« Reply #90 on: March 04, 2019, 02:25:45 PM »

The 2014 J&K assembly election saw the JKN and INC fight separately to to prevent the PDP and BJP surge in Kashmir and Jammu respectively.  To some extent they recovered some votes but it was clear that PDP and BJP came out ahead in their respective regions as the anti-incumbent wave was too strong.

2014 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            86                12             18.20%

INC rebel                         0               0.48%
 
JKN+          86               16             21.13%

JKN rebel                         0              1.21%

PDF             3                  1              0.73% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         85                28             23.32%

PDP rebel                         0             0.22%

JKDPN+        5                 0              0.61% (PDP splinter)

BJP             75               25            23.22%

BJP rebel                         1              1.14%

JKPC          26                 2              1.95% (Separatist)

BSP           50                  0             1.42%

JKNPP        60                  0             2.01% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            3                  1              0.50%

AIP             1                  1              0.38% (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K assembly election (Kashmir)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            45                 4             12.92%

INC rebel                         0               0.56%
 
JKN            46               12             29.58%

JKN rebel                         0              2.04%

PDF             3                  1              1.66% (JKN splinter)

PDP            46               25             37.91%

PDP rebel                         0             0.50%

JKDPN+        5                 0             1.39% (PDP splinter)

BJP             34                 0             2.27%

JKPC          25                 2              4.43% (Separatist)

CPM            2                  1              1.11%

AIP             1                  1              0.87% (Separatist)

The battle was mostly PDP vs JKN but it seems some of the anti-JKN INC vote that went PDP in the LS election came back.  Turnout in Kasmir assembly elections are at lot higher than LS elections which should have helped PDP and Separatist parties but JKN and INC running separately did seem to help to retain the core vote bases from PDP.




2014 J&K assembly election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              4                  3            51.25%
 
JKN+            3                 1             13.90%           

PDP              3                 0             11.89%

BJP               4                 0            22.37%

Without directly LUTF support BJP support fell a bit and the INC was able to consolidate its Buddhist  and Muslim base to win 3 out the 4 seats while PDP managed to split the JKN Muslim vote.



2014 J&K assembly election  (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            37                 5             21.01%

INC rebel                         0              0.44%
 
JKN            37                 3             14.51%

JKN rebel                         0              0.59%

PDP+         36                  3             11.87%

BJP            37                25             40.47%

BJP rebel                         1              2.13%

BSP           36                  0             2.45%

JKNPP        34                  0             3.43% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

The BJP wave continued from the 2014 LS election.  In theory it should be a BJP clean sweep in Hindu areas with INC-JKN split but the INC was able to gain back some anti-JKN votes to dent the BJP vote share to retain a few seats.

With the assembly hopelessly hung months of debates and talks produced a bizarre PDP-BJP government with PDP leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as CM again. Despite the contradictory nature of this alliance  it managed to continue until 2016 when Mufti Mohammad Sayeed passed away.
 Again after several months of talks PDP-BJP government was reformed with now PDP leader  Mehbooba Mufti as CM.    The PDP-BJP alliance clearly hurt PDP in Kashmir as the anti-BJP Muslim vote must have drifted to JKN.    In the meantime JKN-INC restored their alliance.

Then in June 2018 PDP and BJP had a finally falling out and J&K was put under "Governor's rule" which is really rule from the federal government.  The 2019 J&K assembly election will most likely seen BJP vs PDP vs JKN-INC.  It is clear that in Kashmir JKN should defeat PDP and in Ladkah INC should defeat BJP as Buddhist Ladkah LUTF seems to have drifted away from BJP.  The real question will be in Jammu on if the BJP can hold on to the Hindu vote against the INC.  All things equal a JKN-INC government will be formed after the assembly election.  The question is with how large of a majority which is a function of Jammu results.
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« Reply #91 on: March 05, 2019, 06:20:40 AM »

CNX poll for UP after the India-Pakistan conflict (change relative to early Feb poll)

NDA                41 (+12)
SP-BSP-RLD    35 (-14)
INC                  4 (+2)


Like I guessed, the India-Pakistan conflict tends to help both BJP and INC relative to regional parties.  If India-Pakistan conflict now dies down I suspect the impact of this will be fairly small as level of support might revert over the next month or so.
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« Reply #92 on: March 05, 2019, 09:58:06 AM »

In TN DMK-INC alliance talks done:  In Puducherry the alliance will back the INC candidate.  In the 39 TN seats it will be DMK 20 INC 9 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 2 MDMK 1 IJK 1 IUML 1 KMDK 1.
MDMK is also allocated a Upper House seat when the TN elect its next batch of Upper House MPs in June.

What is striking about this distribution is the relative weakness of MDMK in these talks. I would have expected MDMK to get 2 if not 3 seats.  CPI and CPM getting 2 seats each is way above what they are worth but I guess DMK is betting that the small CPI and CPM vote base are more transferable so it makes sense to get them on board.

On the AIADMK side it already have BJP PMK and PT in the alliance and there are talks with DMDK to bring them in.  Both PMK and DMDK held talks with DMK but they are went nowhere because DMK has a winning hand and saw no need to give up large number of seats to either PMK nor DMDK.  AIADMK with AMMK splitting the AIADMK base and taking an the anti-BJP mood in TN is more desperate and willing to deal.

Even if AIADMK ropes in DMDK most likely DMK bloc will have the upper hand if not sweep the state.  On risk for DMK-INC bloc is if AMMK and upstart NMN ends up eating into the anti-BJP vote letting in AIADMK bloc in some seats.
 
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« Reply #93 on: March 08, 2019, 07:45:43 PM »

News Nation poll for Bihar and Jharkhand.

For Bihar it has
 
            Seat   Vote share
NDA       27         45%
UPA       12          37%
Other      1

which seems reasonable given the relative sizes of the social bases of the two blocs.



For Jharkhand  it has

           Seat   Vote share
NDA      10         42%
UPA         4         34%

Which given the INC-JMM-JVM-RJD grand alliance is surprising.  One would expect UPA to at least fight BJP to a draw.  If this poll is true then it implies UPA allies are not able to transfer votes to each other.



Separately VPA came out with a projection that NDA will win 240-260 seats.  Back in early Feb VPA projected 242 seats for NDA.  If so it seems NDA gained around 10 seats from the conflict with Pakistan which implies that impact of the conflict with Pakistan is already wearing off.
 
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« Reply #94 on: March 09, 2019, 10:15:26 AM »

More alliance news which mostly are favorable to BJP

1) In Jharkhand BJP-AJSU alliance formed.  BJP will contest 13 out of 14 seats and AJSU will contest 1 seat.  I am surprised that AJSU was willing to accept 1 seat but this does give BJP a fighting chance in Jharkhand to win a majority of seat against INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.

2) In Delhi there are still on again off again INC-AAP talks but most likely they will fight separately and BJP should sweep all 7 seats.

3) In UP RJD has joined SP-BSP alliance so it will be BSP 38 seats SP 37 seats 3 RJD with the alliance not running in the 2 Gandhi INC seats.  There are still rumors of ongoing talks between SP-BSP and INC.  I still think the most likely outcome are for a tactical alliance where SP-BSP vacate 5-6 more seats where INC is fairly strong and INC vacate 30-40 seats where INC is more likely to split the anti-BJP vote and run in other seats where INC has Upper Caste support to ensure that those votes does not go INC.  

4) In TN it seems DMDK has agreed to join AIADMK-BJP-PMK-PT alliance where it will contest 4 seats.  This is not confirmed but if so then this is a big climb-down for DMDK.  Of course the 2016 TN assembly election results show the true size of the DMDK base without the novelty factor of 2006-2009.

5) In AP it is pretty clear now that TDP and INC will run separately so TDP can run a clear anti-Telengana  campaign by pinning YSRCP as a puppet of TRS given the recent de facto alliance between YSRCP and TRS.

6) In Assam it is still not clear of AGP will join the BJP alliance now that the new citizenship bill has been withdrawn.  There are rumors of INC-AGP alliance talks but most likely in the end AGP will go with BJP.

7) Former BJP head of Kerala Kummanam Rajasekharan who is now the governor of Mizoram has resigned as governor and it is said he will contest for the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram of Kerala which is BJP's strongest district.  This gives BJP a clear shot at winning its first seat ever in Kerala if the INC and Left Front vote are evenly split.

8  ) In Maharashtra it seems SHS splinter NMS which has turned to a harsh anti-Modi stance is unlikely to contest and de facto throw its support behind NCP (although taking a more neutral stance on INC).  Not sure how this will work out on the ground but should give INC-NCP a chance to fight BJP-SHS to a draw here.

9) In WB there has been on again off again talks between INC and Left Front for an alliance.  At this stage that no longer seems possible but there could be some sort of tactical alliance where INC and Left Front support each other in some seats but have "friendly fights" in other seats.  Main problem here is geographical.  Some of the INC strongholds happens to have strong Left Front presence with AITC and BJP far behind.  So the idea here is where INC and Left front can form an alliance both are so weak as not to be able to take on AITC nor BJP.  Where INC or Left Front are strong both are strong so they view each other as the enemy as opposed to AITC and BJP.

10) In Karnataka INC-JD(S) talks are getting heated there is danger of the entire alliance breaking down with both sides sticking to their guns.  I suspect this is a game of chicken and a INC-JD(S) alliance will be formed.

11) In Bihar it is the same in RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP talks where INC insist on 12-14 seats out of 40 while RJD only could part with 10 given the need to accommodate other allies like RLDP HAM VIP and perhaps CPI CPM CPM(ML).  RJD has made a final offer of 11 seats to INC but it seems INC insist on at least 12.  I suspect this is just a game of chicken since if this alliance splits then for sure BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar.
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jaichind
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« Reply #95 on: March 10, 2019, 08:35:10 AM »

ECI announces LS election dates which will be 7 phases between April 11 to May 19

Date      April 11 April 18 April 23  April 29   May 6   May 12  May 19
States       20     13           14          9           7          7            8
Seats        91       97         115        71         51        59          59

There will be 543 LS seats, the number of eligible votes are around 900 million, there will be around 1 million polling stations and around 11 million polling staff.

For assembly elections AP, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Odisha (Orissa) will be held at the same time as the LS but not J&K.  The opposition in J&K (JKN PDP INC) are crying foul saying that this is an attempt to lower turnout in J&K and help BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #96 on: March 10, 2019, 08:50:36 AM »

Based on this schedule one should expect exit polls to come out 5/19 and counting to take place 5/23.
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jaichind
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« Reply #97 on: March 10, 2019, 02:06:58 PM »

Now that poll dates are announced a bunch of polls came out.  The first one is India TV-CNX  which has it at

            Seats    Diff vs 2014     Diff vs Jan 2019 poll   
NDA        285         -70                     +28
UPA         126         +46                    -20
Others     132         +24                     -8


                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      23                  6                                                        29
Chhattisgarh         6                   5                                                       11
Rajastahan          20                   5                                                       25
Punjab                        SAD:3     9                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               9                   1                                                        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U)12   2  RJD:8                                             40
                                 LJP:3                                           
WB                     12                  0                                      AITC:30      42
                                                                                       Left:0
Odisha                 7                   0                BJD:14                             21   
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          13                 13  JD(S):2                                           28
AP                      0                   0   TDP:3     YSRCP:22                          25
Kerala                 1                   8  MUL:2                           Left:5          20
                                                   KEC(M):1                      Left Ind: 2
                                                   RSP:1
TN                      1  AIADMK:12 5  DMK:16                        AMMK:2      39 
                              PMK:2                                               NMN:1
UP                    40   AD:1         4                                      SP:18         80
                                                                                       BSP:16
                                                                                       RLD:1
Maharashtra      22   SHS:10     9  NCP:7                                              48     
Delhi                  7                   0                                       AAP:0           7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Assam                8                   4                                      AIUDF:2       14     
Northeast           3  MNF:1        3                                      Left:1           11
                             SDF:1                                               
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
UT                    4   AINRC:0    2                                                           6
Telengana         0                    2                   TRS:14        AIMIM:1       17                   
Jharkhand         8                   2  JMM:3                           JVM:1          14
Goa                  2                   0                                                           2
Uttarakhand      5                   0                                                           5
HP                    4                   0                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              238  47           82  45             50               81              543


I think this poll still does not categorize JVM correctly as UPA and also still counts TDP as UPA when TDP does not have an alliance with INC in AP.

Overall NDA lost ground in the Northeast due to the Citizenship bill but gained ground in the Hindi North due to the Pakistan conflict and also gained in TN due to AIADMK-BJP alliance.  I am still skeptical that AIADMK-BJP can do so well in TN given the anti-Hindi sentiment there.  Also J&K result of (BJP 2 INC 2 JKN 1 PDP 1) does not make sense.  It implies that INC or BJP would win a seat in Kashmir when that is not possible.  Overall the trend of this poll relative to Jan does seem to make sense and the momentum so far is with BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #98 on: March 10, 2019, 03:08:09 PM »

Map an details of the 7 LS phases



Phase 1
Last date of polling: April 11
Andhra Pradesh - 25
Arunachal- 2
Assam - 5
Bihar - 4
Chattisgarh - 1
Jammu Kashmir - 2
Maharashtra - 7
Manipur - 1
Meghalaya - 2
Mizoram - 1
Nagaland - 1
Orissa - 4
Sikkim - 1
Telangana - 17
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 2
Andaman Nicobar Islands- 1

Phase 2:
Last date of polling: April 18
Asaam - 5
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 3
Jammu and Kashmir - 2
Karnataka  - 14
Maharashtra - 10
Manipur - 1
Orissa - 5
Tamil Nadu - 39
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 3
Puducherry - 1

Phase 3:
Last date of polling: April 23
Assam - 4
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 7
Gujarat - 26
Goa - 2
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Karnataka - 14
Kerala - 20
Maharashtra - 14
Orissa - 6
Uttar Pradesh - 10
West Bengal - 5
Dadar and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1

Phase 4:
Date of counting: May 23
Bihar - 5
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh  - 6
Maharashtra  - 17
Orissa - 6
Rajasthan - 13
Uttar Pradesh - 13
West Bengal - 8

Phase 5:
Last date of polling: May 6
Bihar- 5
Jammu and Kashmir- 2
Jharkhand  - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 7
Rajasthan - 12
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 7

Phase 6:
Last date of polling: May 12
Bihar - 8
Haryana - 10
Jharkhand - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 8
Delhi - 7

Phase 7:
Last date of polling: May 19
Bihar - 8
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Punjab - 13
West Bengal - 9
Chandigarh - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 13
Himachal Pradesh - 4
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jaichind
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« Reply #99 on: March 10, 2019, 04:55:22 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2019, 05:56:53 PM by jaichind »

C-voter poll for LS elections (change from Jan 2019 poll)

           seats        vote share
NDA     264(+31)    41.1%(+3.5%)
UPA     141(-26)     30.9%(-1.3%)
Others 183(-5)       28.0%(-2.2%)


Most of the NDA gains especially with respect to vote share are from alliance with AIADMK in TN and alliance with SHS in Maharashtra. Of course the BJP surge in the Hindi heartland also adds to the gain in seats relative to Jan 2019.

By state
Bihar



Gujarat



Kerala



Assam
UPA- 7
NDA-6
AIUDF- 1
UPA- 42.6%
NDA-42.5%
AIUDF- 3.9%
Others-11%


UP



Maharashtra



MP



Rajasthan



Odisha



Haryana



Punjab



WB



HP



TN



Jharkhand



Karnataka



Delhi



AP



J&K



Telangana



Goa



Uttarakhand



Chhattisgarh



Manipur



Arunachal Pradesh



Meghalaya
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