2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of AP

Demographics (note that Christians are underestimated as a lot of Dalits in AP are really Christian but does not ID as such for fear of losing out on job quotas for Dalits)


Shows that TDP stronger in coastal AP while YSRCP stronger in Rayalseema in 2014


Points out TDP stronger with Hindus and YSRCP stronger with Muslims (which is ironic as YSRCP is much more likely to ally with BJP post-election)


TDP stronger with Upper Caste and OBC while YSRCP stronger with Dalits, Reddy, and Christians.  Note YSRCP leader Jagan Reddy is a Reddy (of course) and a Christian 


TDP stronger in cities and YSRCP stronger in villages. 


These patterns show that YSRCP is really just the old AP INC in terms of voting base.

Key factor is where the JSP vote will come from.  JSP will clearly pull in the youth vote (which in theory hits YSRCP) as well as Kapus (which will hit TDP)

[jaichind]

India TV-CNX poll

NDA    295
UPA    127
Others 121


NDA gains 20 seat from previous poll.  First sign of momentum either side since March.

By state

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 46, BSP 13, SP 15, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.
Uttarakhand: BJP 4, Congress 1. Total 5.
Rajasthan: BJP 19, Congress 6. Total 25.
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 29, BJP 12,  Cong 1, LF 0. Total 42.
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 13, BJP 7, Congress 1. Total 21.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29.
Chhattisgarh: BJP 5, Congress 6, Total 11.
Punjab: Congress 10, Akali Dal 3. Total 13.
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10.
Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 5, JD(U) 13, Congress 2, LJP 3, RLSP 1, VIP 1. Total 40.
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 2, AJSU 1.  Total 14.
Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2.  Total 26.
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1, Total 4.
Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 15, Congress 6, NCP 6. Total 48.
Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1. Total 2.
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 4, BJP 1, PMK 2, Others 6. Total 39
                   [Note should be UPA 24 NDA 15)
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 20, TDP 5.  Total 25.
Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17.
Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2, Total 28.
Kerala: UDF 16, LDF 4. Total 20.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1. Total 6.
Assam: BJP 6, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Others 2. Total 14. [Note should be NDA 8 UPA 4 AIUDF 2]
Other North East states: BJP 6, Congress 1, NPP 2, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Delhi: BJP 7.  Total 7.
Other Union Territories:  BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.

[jaichind]

CSDS poll

https://www.lokniti.org/media/upload_files/Compiled%20Report%20Day%204.pdf

NDA      273
UPA      120
Others  140

Vote share 

BJP  35% Allies 6% -> NDA 41%
INC 23% Allies 7% -> UPA 30%
BSP 5% Allies 4% -> Grand Alliance 9%
Left 3%
Others 17%

State projections


AP with NDA at 0-3 makes no sense.  Which 3 seats does CSDS think BJP can win in AP ?

[jaichind]

With a bunch more new polls I can update my poll of polls chart

Based on the data I have I can construct this chart of average NDA seats per state and state level anti-incumbency adjusted values

State    Total Seats    Date of last             State Ruling       Average NDA      Adjusted NDA
                              assembly election        party                  seats                    seats
J&K               6            2014                          PDP                     2.1                      2
HP                4         Late 2017                      BJP                      3.8                      4
Haryana       10             2014                         BJP                      8.1                     7
Punjab         13         Early 2017                     INC                     3.0                      4
Delhi             7             2015                         AAP                     6.4                      7
Uttarakhand   5         Early 2017                    BJP                      4.6                      4
UP               80         Early 2017                    BJP                     40.7                    36
Bihar           40             2015                        JD(U)                  30.8                    28
MP              29          Late 2018                    INC                     21.7                    18
Rajasthan     25         Late 2018                    INC                     19.1                    17
Chhattisgarh 11         Late 2018                    INC                      4.2                      3
Jharkhand    14            2014                         BJP                      7.3                      4
Gujarat         26         Late 2017                    BJP                    22.5                     23
Maharashtra  48           2014                         BJP                    36.2                     33
Goa                2         Early 2017                   BJP                     1.6                       1
WB               42            2016                        AITC                    9.7                     14
Orissa           21            2014                        BJD                     9.5                     13
Karnataka     28         Early 2018                   INC                   15.9                     16
AP                25             2014                       TDP                     0.4                      0
Telangana     17          Late 2018                   TRS                     0.3                      0
TN                39            2016                     AIADMK                11.7                      7
Kerala           20             2014                       Left                     0.6                      1
A&N                1                                                                        1                      1
Chandigarh     1                                                                        1                       1
D&N H            1                                                                     0.9                       1
D&D               1                                                                        1                       1
Pondicherry     1             2016                       INC                    0.4                       0
Lakshadweep   1                                                                       0                       0
Assam           14            2016                        BJP                    7.5                       7
Arunachal P     2             2014                       BJP                    1.7                       2
Manipur           2          Early 2017                 BJP                    1.4                       1
Mizoram          1          Late 2018                   MNF                   0.3                      1
Nagaland         1          Early 2018                 NDPP                     1                      1
Tripura            2          Early 2018                 BJP                        2                       2
Meghalaya       2          Early 2018                 NPP                    1.4                       2
Sikkim             1            2014                       SDF                       1                       1
Total             543                                                                  280.7                  263

Mizoram is tough as some pollsters count MNF as part of NDA and others to not. For the proposes of my fair value model I count them as part of NDA.

[jaichind]

In pretty big news, YSRCP leader Jagan Reddy indicated that "I have forgiven INC" for the Jagan Reddy break with INC back in 2010 and that he will back UPA after the election.  I suspect this is done because I wants to trigger INC->YSRCP tactical voting to beat off any TDP chances due to the split of anti-incumbency vote by JSP.  Not sure if he will hold to this promise to back INC post-election.  If it does AND BJP does well in Odisha which shuts down any BJD support for NDA then NDA HAS to win a majority on its own to form a government or take support from unpredictable TRS whose leader last few days have been slamming Modi.  Lucky for NDA most recent polls seems to converge toward a narrow majority for NDA.   

[jaichind]

BJP MLA killed in Chhattisgarh by Maoist rebels.  Elections to go ahead as scheduled.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/several-killed-including-bjp-mla-bhima-mandavi-in-ied-blast-in-dantewada/article26782767.ece

[jaichind]

The situation with the BJP in the UP seat Etawah is comical.  First its existing MP Ashok Kumar Doharey defected to INC and will run for INC.  So the BJP drafted its senior leader Mridula Katheria who was the BJP MP from Agra to be its candidate here as a defector from SP was going to be the BJP candidate from Agra.  But Mridula Katheria's wife who was also a big-shot in the BJP in this area claimed that she was promised the seat and will be running as a BJP rebel against her own husband.

https://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/state-editions/katheria---s-wife-files-papers-as-independent.html

[jaichind]

RJD in Bihar has its own family comedy.  RJD leader Lalu Yadav is behind bars so the leadership fell to younger son Tejashwi Prasad Yadav  


Lalu Yadav older son Tej Pratap Yadav is lower in the RJD pecking order but still a significant leader.  Tej Pratap Yadav got married last year


But then had a falling out with his new wife right away and is demanding a divorce.  As his new wife's father is a top RJD leader (and her grandfather was a former INC CM back in the 1970s) Lalu Yadav blocked his attempt at divorce.   Now  Tej Pratap Yadav  is angry that RJD will field his fathter-in-law in Saran and was threading to run against his father-in-law as RJD rebel although it seems recently he has backed off from that threat.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elections/tej-pratap-asks-tejashwi-to-rethink-on-sheohar-nominees-goes-campaigning-for-misa/story-IA3ZaNEoUHdEGNbGmwLcDL.html

[jaichind]

PEACS Media came out with a poll.  They are not that active and usually have a significant anti-BJP bias.  I had to read through their press release to build up to an implied

NDA    242 (BJP ~200)
UPA    163 (INC ~100)
Others 126

This poll mostly matches other media polls but has NDA only at 33 seats in UP and UPA fighting NDA to a draw in the Northeast.   They also have AITC defeating BJP easily in WB holding BJP to 5 seats.  That plus a moderate anti-BJP lean in the other states drives NDA down toe 242 seats.

[jaichind]

It seems earlier in the week a TV9/Covter poll had it at

NDA     261
UPA     143
Others  139

What was critical about this poll was that it had a major BJP defeat in UP where it had

                            seats      Vote share
NDA                        28           43.4%
UPA                          4             8.9%
SP-BSP-RLD            48            44.0%

They must assume significant tactical voting by the INC and SP-BSP-RLD voting bases to defeat BJP despite a very close vote share gap between NDA and SP-BSP-RLD.  It also has INC fighting NDA to a draw in the Northeast.  The other states result seems similar to other polls.

[jaichind]

Voting starts in Phase 1 which includes 91 constituencies spread across 18 states and 2 union territories.  It includes all of AP and Telangana and will include AP assembly elections.  

It will contain the 8 seats Western part of UP.  The key district I would be very interested would be Saharanpur which would be a 3 way battle between BJP INC and BSP.  It is 40% Muslim and without the Hindu polarization of the 2013-2014 Jat-Muslim communal riots the BJP could lose the seat if the Muslim vote consolidates behind either the INC or BSP candidate.  From the looks of it the INC could win this seat.  I am pretty sure all these media projections that have INC winning up to 4 seats in UP must include this seat. INC can only be sure of the 2 Gandhi seats in UP but there are 3-4 other seats where it could win and Saharanpur is actually the most likely to be the 3rd seat.  Of course if the Muslim vote does consolidate behind the INC it could be good news for BJP for the rest of UP since it shows that the SP could not throw its Muslim vote behind BSP.  If this is replicated in the rest of UP the BSP could be beaten by BJP across the board if the Muslim vote goes INC instead where INC has a strong Muslim candidate.   One way or another how the Muslim vote goes in Saharanpur  and why could set the tone on if the BJP can pull out a win (45+ seats in UP) or get hammered (low 30s or less) in UP.

[jaichind]

It seems ECI have banned NoMo TV as well as the showing of a Modi biopic movie before its released.

[Continential]

Who'll win in Andhra Pradash, my Grandfather said that the Desem party will win in a landslide.

[jaichind]

Voting for phase 1 over. Turnout mostly dropped a couple of percentage points in most places.  Telangana turnout dropped more which is not a surprise as there is no assembly election unlike 2014.  AP, Assam and Maharashtra turnout dropped a bit more.  AP

On the whole the 2014 increase in turnout reflected the Modi wave so it seems in places like UP and Bihar the Modi wave of 2014 is very much alive.  in places like Assam and Maharashtra the BJP might be in trouble although the turnout decline is not large but still significant.   

[jaichind]

Who'll win in Andhra Pradash, my Grandfather said that the Desem party will win in a landslide.

Well most likely your grandfather will be wrong.  All trends and reports from AP seems to indicate that YSRCP should win. The only wildcards are a) Will JSP hurt TDP or YSRCP more? b) impact of money power as in AP politics is a business the the role of money which TDP has more of will count a lot c) The impact Jagan Reddy came out to forgive INC for his break with INC in 2010 which seems to be a ploy to get Muslim votes given concerns that YSRCP will join up with NDA after the election

All things equal I would say YSRCP should win and most likely win convincingly

[jaichind]

Another funny family related news in the election. 

In HP a key INC Upper caste kingpin has been Sukh Ram who was a member of the INC cabinet at the federal level in the 1990s


In the 1990s Sukh Ram was implicated in various corruption scandals and expelled from INC.  He then formed HP INC splinter HVC and allied with BJP.  Eventually he and the BJP had a falling out and he merged HVC back into INC before the 2004 elections.

Then in 2017  Sukh Ram, his son Anil Sharma  and his grandson Ashray Sharma joined BJP before the 2017 HP assembly elections over seat allocation problems within the INC.  His son Anil Sharma  ran and won on the BJP ticket and became a minister in the HP government.   

Then earlier this year, Sukh Ram wanted is grandson  Ashray Sharma to be given the BJP ticket for Mandi which was denied.   Sukh Ram and his grandson Ashray Sharma rejoined INC who then field   Ashray Sharma as its candidate in Mandi.  Anil Sharma  stilled in BJP most likely because of the power that comes with being a minister of the state HP government.   

BJP then directed Anil Sharma to campaign against his son Ashray Sharma in Mandi as a member of the BJP cabinet of HP.  Anil Sharma refused.  Now the HP CM is telling Anil Sharma that he has to campaign against his son or else he will have to resign from the HP BJP cabinet.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/campaign-bjp-quit-himachal-cm-tells-minister-1499836-2019-04-11

[jaichind]

Some of the on the ground reports from the 8 Western UP seats that voted today does not sound good for the BJP.  The ground reports indicated that there is a surge of voting by Muslims, Dalits and Jats which are the communities that are likely to vote SP-BSP-RLD.  A RSS report seems to indicate that the BJP which won all 8 in 2014 are likely to lose 6 of them.  If this this would be very bad for BJP.  My current model for these 8 seats are 5 BJP and 3 SP-BSP-RLD with one of the seats going BJP is neck-to-neck.  My UP model overall gives NDA 35 out of 80 seats with the vote share near even between BJP-AD(S) and SP-BSP-RLD.  If the RSS report is true then the rest of UP could get ugly for BJP.  What the BJP will have to hope for if this report is true is that this swing is localized to the Jat vote that went to BJP in 2014 and to some extent even in 2014 assembly elections swung back to RLD.  With Jats only numerous in Western UP the BJP could perhaps recover in Central and Eastern UP.

[S019]

Do you know how the INC/UPA can get enough seats to actually form a government, because from what I've seen either the NDA (BJP itself will not have a majority) will keep a majority or there will be a hung Parliament, but the NDA would get the first chance at government formation

[jaichind]

Do you know how the INC/UPA can get enough seats to actually form a government, because from what I've seen either the NDA (BJP itself will not have a majority) will keep a majority or there will be a hung Parliament, but the NDA would get the first chance at government formation

Let me first start with why this scenario is very unlikely.   Sonia Gandhi alluded to 2004 as a example of how the ruling bloc could lose.  On the surface the 2004 comparison is apt.  Before the election campaign started polls showed NDA with around 350 seats.  There were even claims by BJP that BJP itself will win 300 seats.  By the time the voting started most polls had NDA at around 290 seats which is similar to today.  The NDA graph continued to drop and exit polls done after each round of voting (which was allowed back then) had them dropping over time to around 250.  When the results came out NDA was at 189.   Now there are two factors here that make 2019 not a repeat of 2004.  First the momentum going into voting does not seem to be moving against NDA.  I do not see it going in favor of NDA either so it is a wave-less election whereas 2004 it was clear that the momentum was moving against NDA.  Second the nature of OTHERS in 2004 and 2019 are very different.  In 2004 NDA pretty much included all parties that could back BJP to form a government and OTHERS were pretty much SP BSP Left parties and various anti-BJP parties so once NDA failed to come close to majority they are out.  In 2019 the composition of OTHERS will be different.  The Left will be decimated so while OTHERS will include anti-BJP parties like AITC SP BSP they will also include parties that could do business with BJP like YSRCP TRS and BJD.  Using the game theory logic "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", I can see YSRCP (pro-INC TDP is its main enemy) and TRS(INC is its main enemy)  backing BJP and BJD (BJP is its main enemy) most likely not.  Still YSRCP and TRS between them will get most likely at least 30 seats.  So NDA can be at around 250 and still be in pole position to capture power.  The way for NDA to be kept out of power would be for NDA to be driven down to something like 200 which is unlikely given the wave-less nature of this election.  I think NDA is overestimated in the polls based on my state level anti-incumbency model but for NDA to driven down to 200 is very hard to see taking place.

So now lets to move to, assuming NDA does get pushed to 200, what are the chances of a UPA government.   I would say it depends on the HOW the NDA is pushed to 200.  If the NDA is pushed to 200 because BJP gets clobbered in places like UP (where SP-BSP will benefit),  WB (where AITC will benefit) and Odisha (where BJD will benefit) then that does not really help UPA in gaining seats which means UPA itself will still be stuck at around 150 seats.  In such a case the various anti-BJP regional parties will force INC to backed a non-INC PM since INC will not have the numbers or leverage.  In such a case NCP leader Sharad Pawar is the most likely PM candidate.  He have the added benefit of being able to pull in SHS to back him as the first Maratha PM.  Now if the NDA is driven to 2000 based on a setback in INC-BJP states like Uttarakhand, MP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Haryana I can see UPA getting close to 190-200 seats itself in such a situation.   If this were the case then I think the UPA would be in a position to demand the various anti-BJP parties back a INC PM.  I am not certain that even in this sort of a case Rahul Gandhi would be PM.  Rahul Gandhi had to lead the INC campaign which means running against SP-BSP in UP and AITC in WB which does not help his relationships with these parties.  It is more likely that a more tenured INC leader with good rapport with SP BSP and AITC would be brought in in such a situation.

[jaichind]

Some more alliance news

1) Looks like, I am not sure it is final, that the INC APP alliance talks have failed.  I am not sure how seriously I should take this news.  Delhi votes in Phase 6 so the filing of candidates does nos start until 4/23 so AAP and INC have another week to start yet around of alliance talks.

2) In Haryana, INLD splinter JJP have formed an alliance with AAP.  This is bad news for INC as this might pull some anti-BJP votes over to JJP-AAP instead of INC.  What this space since this might provoke BJP and INLD to form an alliance which I think is a BAD idea for both.  Such a BJP-INLD alliance will just drive what is left of the INLD vote over to JJP or INC.  So Haryana which was facing a 6 way battle (BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP vs JJP) will now become 5 way (BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP-JJP) and could become 4 way (BJP-INLD vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP-JJP).

3) In good news for BJP, BJP Rajasthan Jat based splinter RLP which ran in the 2018 assembly elections and hit the BJP in some regions had decided to ally with BJP because talks with INC have broken down.  My understanding is that INC thinks it is in a strong position despite what the polls say and choose not to accommodate RLP who had to run back to BJP.   
 
4) Also good news for BJP in UP.  NISHAD party which is based on the Nishad catse broke with SP-BSP and decided to ally with BJP.  SP seems to really wanted NISAHD to be part of the alliance but SP have away some many seats to SP and RLD to get that alliance to work it could not give any to NISAHD.  The one NISHAD MP that was elected in a by-election last year with SP-BSP support will run on the BJP ticket.  The NISHAD party name is interesting and funny.  The party is a party that represents the fisherman based Nishad caste.  Indian election laws says a party could not make direct caste religious or community base appeals.  So when the party wanted to be called the Nishad  party it was rejected by the ECI.  So the party called itself the "Nirbal Indian Shosh**t Hamara Aam Dal" or NISHAD as an abbreviation as a workaround.  I think the fact is most parties make implicit and often explicit appeals based on caste or religious  lines so the ECI is better off just letting these parties do what they want to do then try to enforce a rule that is not enforceable anyway.

[jaichind]

If you look in detail on the turnout figure across different states now that more updated info are available you get some info on trends.

For J&K (2 out of 6 - 1 Jammu and 1 Kashmir seat) turnout increased slightly relative to 2014 which is mostly about the Jammu seat.  This means the BJP Hindu surge in Jammu continues and BJP should carry the 2 Jammu seats with ease.

For Odisha (4 out of 21) seats and WB (2 out of 42 seats) turnout was only a slight drop from 2014 turnout rates.  This sort of shows the energy of 2014 wave is still alive.  I read this as a continued desire for change and this trend should work in BJP's favor.

AP (25 out of 25) also saw a small dropoff in turns of turnout from 2014 and should be positive for YSRCP as part of that change narrative.

UP (8 out of 80), Bihar (4 out of 40) and Maharashtra (7 out of 48)  also had fairly small drop-off relative to 2014 but ground reports so far seems to indicate that the turnout surge are with Dalits Muslims Jats in UP and backwards in Bihar.  In Maharashtra  it is not clear about the nature of the drop but most likely it is related to the BJP-SHS alliance conflict which was patched up last minute.
 If so overall this is ominous news for the BJP.

Uttarakhand (5 out of 5)  had some drop-off in turnout but is still higher than 2009.   It seems the BJP will lose ground here as the Modi surge of 2014 has some decline but could be contained.

Telangana (17 out of 17)  had a large drop-off lin turnout (almost 9%) but that is almost certainly because there is no assembly election along with LS elections unlike 2014.  Things look like a replication of 2018 assembly elections and should be positive for TRS.

Assam (5 out of 14)  turnout dropped 9%-10% to levels close to 2009 LS elections.  It is not clear where the drop-off is but UPA did well in Assam and Maharashtra in 2009 and BJP has to hope the turnout fall are as much as about UPA voters as NDA votes.  But circumstantial evidence  says not.  We have citizenship bill issue and the BJP surge in 2014 which was partly about an anti-immigration push might not turn out over the Citizenship bill.

Overall reading tea leaves and I could be very wrong about this, the trend is BJP over-performing in WB, Odisha, and Jammu part of J&K but losing ground everywhere else.

[jaichind]

In AP, TDP leader and CM Naidu is complaining that a large number of EVM were malfunctioning in AP elections.  This is a pretty good sign that TDP have most likely lost the AP election. 

[PSOL]

Modi's party chief vows to throw illegal immigrants in India into Bay of Bengal

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah referred such illegal immigrants as “termites”, a description he also used last September, when he drew condemnation from rights groups. The U.S. State Department also noted the remark in its annual human rights report.

“Infiltrators are like termites in the soil of Bengal,” Shah said on Thursday at a rally in the eastern state of West Bengal, as voting in India’s 39-day general election started.

“A Bharatiya Janata Party government will pick up infiltrators one by one and throw them into the Bay of Bengal,” he said, referring to illegal immigrants from neighboring Muslim-majority Bangladesh.

[jaichind]

Modi's party chief vows to throw illegal immigrants in India into Bay of Bengal

Actually this headline is misleading as what he means to do is to expel all illegal Muslim immigrants.  The BJP vision as articulated in the new citizenship bill is that India is the homeland of all non-Muslim people of South Asia.  The BJP is for immigration, even if implicitly illegal (hard to know since the border can be quite porous), of all non-Muslims.   This has the support of non-Ahom Hindus in the Northeast but are opposed by tribal Christians and Ahom Hindus who fear Hindi immigrants as much as Muslim immigrants.

[jaichind]

Once I looked over the INC candidate list (so far) for UP I can sort of map out what the INC strategy in UP might be.  Out of the 80 UP seats the INC have solid candidates only in around 10-15 seats with another 10 that might gain some significant vote share.  The rest are either withdrawals for SP-BSP-RLD VIP candidates or just dummy candidates.  What the INC is mostly doing is to run strong Muslim candidates in heavy Muslim areas that BSP is running to cut into the BSP vote while mostly leaving SP alone.  Even when INC runs strong candidates against SP the community of the INC candidate makes it clear that INC is trying to cut into both BJP and SP candidates while a strong INC candidate running in BSP seats seems to have community makeup to cut into only BSP candidates.    Even when INC runs dummy candidates you can tell they are trying to cut into the BJP vote when a SP candidate is in the fray. 

So the INC strategy in UP seems clear: help the SP but hurt BSP.  The main reason for this is SP is local to UP but the BSP Dalit base in other Hindi heartland states are part of the vote share the INC needs to win back to be competitive with the BJP on the long run so trying to destroy BSP is part of the mid-term INC strategy.