2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #225 on: April 13, 2019, 07:20:35 AM »

TDP CM has gone to Delhi to protest the 30%-40% failure rate of EVM in AP elections claim that ECI is rigging the election on behalf of the BJP and YSRCP.  This is a clear sign that he has lost.  Also EVM mostly are rarely a source of fraud.  First EVM does not have wifi so it is pretty much impossible to "hack" EVMs.  Also rigging EVM to map a vote for candidate A to candidate B is unlikely because the sequence of candidates on EVM is by last name and not by party name so in each district the sequence of candidates are different.  So to rig the hardware to map a vote for position A to position B is possible but it is impossible to do that to help one party or another.

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jaichind
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« Reply #226 on: April 13, 2019, 08:03:53 AM »

New Delhi based Political Analysis & Research Centre predicted:

AP assembly: YSRCP 129 TDP 49 JSP 4
AP LS: YSRCP 18 TDP 7 (my model currently have it at YSRCP 20 TDP 5)
Telangana LS: TRS 14 AIMIM 1 BJP 1 INC 1 (my model currently have it at TRS 16 AIMIM 1)
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jaichind
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« Reply #227 on: April 13, 2019, 08:07:31 AM »

In Goa BJP regional ally MGP have defected from BJP to back INC in LS elections.  In 2016 assembly elections MGP ran separately from BJP and caused BJP to fall behind INC in terms of seats.  After the election MGP backed BJP.  Then to ensure that MGP does not defect BJP got 2 out of 3 of MGP MLAs to defect to BJP.  Now MGP is hitting back by throwing its support to INC.  If the BJP was en route to win 2 out of 2 seats if MGP vote base does swing to INC then BJP will get most likely only 1.
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jaichind
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« Reply #228 on: April 14, 2019, 08:29:36 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2019, 08:33:37 AM by jaichind »

There are rumors that Priyanka Gandhi has indicated that she will be willing to contest from Varanasi against Modi if INC Prez Rahul Gandhi is willing to support such a move.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019/uttar-pradesh/news/will-congress-field-priyanka-from-varanasi/articleshow/68869768.cms

It is clear what the strategy is.  This move would enthuse INC morale and if she can tied down Modi to Varanasi so much the better.  I think a prerequisite for this would be for SP-BSP to back her as well so her likely defeat would by a fairly narrow margin and the Gandhi brand not damaged.

If Priyanka Gandhi were to run then it would be 5 members of the Gandhi clan that will run in UP.  Rahul Gandhi from Amethi, Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Maneka Gandhi of the BJP (daughter in law of Indira Gandhi and wife of her son Sanjay Gandhi) from Sultanpur, Varun Gandhi of the BJP (grandson of Indira Gandhi and son of Sanjay Gandhi) from Pilibhit, and now Priyanka Gandhi from Varanasi.

There are other rumors that Priyanka Gandhi's husband Robert Vadra might also contest as well.  Robert Vadra  have been wanting to join politics for a while but has been dogged by corruption allegations over a shady land deal.  He has been tentatively cleared by the courts, for now, and I guess now it is all clear for him and his wife  Priyanka Gandhi to jump into politics.
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jaichind
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« Reply #229 on: April 14, 2019, 08:30:43 AM »

Example of someone hedging their bets.  Famous cricketer Ravindra Jadeja who seem want to get into politics in Gujarat had his wife join BJP last month and today have his father and sister join INC.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/after-ravindra-jadeja-s-wife-joins-bjp-his-father-and-sister-join-congress-1501760-2019-04-14
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jaichind
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« Reply #230 on: April 14, 2019, 09:07:20 AM »

In the Nawada seat of Bihar which just voted it seems the election is criminal vs criminal.  The NDA candidate is LJP's Chandan Kumar Singh who is the brother of Surajbhan Singh, a feared criminal don of the 1990s who have since joined LJP.  On the UPA side is RJD's Veebha Devi, wife of a criminal don who is now behind bars for the rape of a minor.
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jaichind
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« Reply #231 on: April 14, 2019, 04:28:05 PM »

NDTV analysis of TN

Some demographics


TN fairly urbanized


TN elections historically have been lopsided


AIADMK does better with women.  But that most likely have to do with Jayalalitha who has passed away already


Jayalalitha's mobilization also have turned out women turnout over the years


The women mobilization has most been in rural areas


So I guess the key question is with Jayalalitha gone and AIADMK split can this rural women mobilization be maintained.
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jaichind
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« Reply #232 on: April 15, 2019, 05:24:15 AM »

Quote
India’s enforcement agencies have so far seized cash, liquor, drugs, gold and other contraband worth 25 billion rupees ($361 million) as the country’s polling gets underway, already double the value of goods seized in the entire 2014 elections.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/cash-booze-and-gold-india-seizures-surge-compared-to-2014-vote/articleshow/68886631.cms
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jaichind
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« Reply #233 on: April 15, 2019, 05:29:07 AM »

SBSP who was BJP ally in UP in the 2017 assembly elections had decided to go it alone as the BJP could not spare enough seats to SBSP and insisted that any SBSP candidates run on the BJP symbol.  There will be some impact but not clear if it will swing any seats.  Similar to NISHAD going with BJP in UP in the other direction.
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jaichind
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« Reply #234 on: April 15, 2019, 08:20:20 AM »

Looks like AAP and INC are converging toward a deal in Delhi.  It is mostly AAP backing down and accepting an AAP 4 INC 3 deal without a INC-AAP deal in Punjab or Haryana.  In Haryana  AAP made a deal with JJP which mostly excludes any deal with INC.  AAP also then dropped the link between Delhi and Punjab and have indicated it would accept an AAP 4 INC 3 deal.  Rahul Gandhi just tweeted that INC is ready to give 4 seats to AAP in Delhi.  So I guess now it is to work out the exact seats and wait for the AAP and INC rebels to emerge.  In the end AAP blinked and concluded that a AAP wipe-out in Delhi is relatively worse for AAP than INC.  INC will live no matter what but AAP might end up in the graveyard.  So in the game of chicken INC won.  In my view all of this assumes AAP-INC can win 5-6 seats in Delhi which I doubt.  They will be lucky to win 2 given the anti-incumbency against AAP.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #235 on: April 16, 2019, 07:41:33 AM »

Some recent stories of voter intimidation that does not make the BJP look good and could give a sign that while BJP should win it is not a BJP landslide

BJP MP in UP
Quote
In a video that has gained considerable attention on social media, Sakshi Maharaj, the Bharatiya Janata Party candidate for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 from Uttar Pradesh’s Unnao constituency, can be heard threatening to curse people if they do not vote for his party.
https://scroll.in/video/919877/watch-bjp-leader-sakshi-maharaj-threatens-to-curse-people-who-don-t-vote-for-him

Story on Maneka Gandhi. BJP MP and daughter-in-law of Indira Gandhi takes a page from Singapore's PAP
Quote
“We win in Pilibhit every time, so what is the parameter that we work more for one village and less for the other?” she asked at an election meeting. “The parameter is that we segregate all villages as A, B, C, and D. The village where we get 80% cent votes is A, the village in which we get 60% is B, the village in which we get 50% is C and the village where we get less than 50% is D.”
She elaborated: “The development work first happens in all A category villages. Then comes B and only after work in B is done, we start with C. So this is up to you whether you make it to A, B or C and no one should come in D because we all have come here to do good.”
https://scroll.in/article/920231/the-daily-fix-the-abcd-of-menaka-gandhis-contempt-for-indias-constitution

In Gujarat
Quote
BJP MLA Ramesh Katara told voters in Gujarat's Dahod that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has installed CCTV cameras in polling booths and will know if people voted for Congress
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-dont-vote-for-congress-pm-modi-has-got-cctv-cameras-in-polling-booths-bjp-mla/328850
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jaichind
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« Reply #236 on: April 16, 2019, 04:29:31 PM »

Looks like ECI have canceled elections in the TN district of Vellore.  It seems that a government raid revealed a warehouse controlled by the DMK candidate of $1.6 million dollars worth of cash which is to be used for vote buying.  DMK is crying foul that they are being framed by authorities which are focused on helping AIADMK-BJP.     

The race in Vellore is AIADMK splinter PNK for NDA vs DMK for UPA.  My current model has this race neck-to-neck with a tiny lead for PNK.  So I can see why vote buying would make sense here as it could make a difference.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-polls-in-tamil-nadus-vellore-cancelled-after-huge-cash-haul-2024089

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jaichind
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« Reply #237 on: April 16, 2019, 04:38:16 PM »

On the subject of TN when all of TN votes on Thursday as part of Phase II voting there will be 22 by-elections for TN assembly which could determine if the AIADMK government would fall or not.

The 2016 TN assembly election produced:

AIADMK   136

DMK          89
INC            8
MUL           1

AMMK won the by-election for Jayalalitha's seat and the pro-TTV Dinakaran faction of AIADMK defected to AMMK and were disqualified by the AIADMK speaker.  So now we have

AIADMK    114

AMMK          1

DMK           88
INC              8
MUL             1
 
with 22 by-elections needed.  If AIADMK does not win at least 4-5 out of the 22 by-elections it will lose its majority and most likely early TN assembly elections are needed.  In many ways this elections is more important that the TN LS elections.   NDTV reports that the going rate for vote buying for the LS elections is around $50 per vote but the going rate for assembly by-elections are around $300 per vote.   These 22 by-elections will be a 3 way battles between AIADMK vs DMK vs AMMK with what I have to assume as the DMK with the edge given the old AIADMK base is split down the middle between AIADMK and AMMK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #238 on: April 17, 2019, 05:52:26 AM »

With APP-INC talks for Delhi alliance in progress there are more media analysis that claims that AAP-INC alliance will help in Delhi but not Haryana based on math.  I still think given the history of hostility between INC and AAP in Delhi that any alliance will be hard to work on the ground while in Haryana that is not the case and an opposition alliance can take advantage of anti-incumbency there against the BJP state government.     

https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elections/aap-congress-coalition-likely-to-fare-well-in-delhi-than-haryana-suggests-data/story-LR6EmKdb6YQxST2rTUvYuN.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #239 on: April 17, 2019, 05:55:40 AM »

This news18 analysis of the community backgrounds of the SP, BSP, and INC candidates in UP pretty much came to the conclusion I did a while ago, that INC and SP have a de facto understanding to help each other cut into BJP votes while it is all out war between INC and BSP.

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/eye-on-post-poll-scenarios-congress-and-sp-pick-candidates-that-minimise-mutual-damage-2104317.html

Once I looked over the INC candidate list (so far) for UP I can sort of map out what the INC strategy in UP might be.  Out of the 80 UP seats the INC have solid candidates only in around 10-15 seats with another 10 that might gain some significant vote share.  The rest are either withdrawals for SP-BSP-RLD VIP candidates or just dummy candidates.  What the INC is mostly doing is to run strong Muslim candidates in heavy Muslim areas that BSP is running to cut into the BSP vote while mostly leaving SP alone.  Even when INC runs strong candidates against SP the community of the INC candidate makes it clear that INC is trying to cut into both BJP and SP candidates while a strong INC candidate running in BSP seats seems to have community makeup to cut into only BSP candidates.    Even when INC runs dummy candidates you can tell they are trying to cut into the BJP vote when a SP candidate is in the fray. 

So the INC strategy in UP seems clear: help the SP but hurt BSP.  The main reason for this is SP is local to UP but the BSP Dalit base in other Hindi heartland states are part of the vote share the INC needs to win back to be competitive with the BJP on the long run so trying to destroy BSP is part of the mid-term INC strategy.
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jaichind
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« Reply #240 on: April 17, 2019, 11:52:33 AM »

Now it is the INC's turn to threaten voters.  INC Chhattisgarh minister tells voters that if they vote for anyone else other than INC the EVM will give them an electric shock.

https://scroll.in/latest/920390/voters-will-suffer-electric-shock-if-they-press-second-third-button-on-evm-chhattisgarh-minister
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jaichind
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« Reply #241 on: April 18, 2019, 07:28:41 AM »

Voting for phase 2 almost done.  Phase 2 includes all of TN.  Money power seems to be a lot stronger in TN than previous elections.   In 2014 around $2.3 in cash was sized by authorities in TN that was related to vote buying.  In 2019 that number have surged to over $29 million.
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jaichind
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« Reply #242 on: April 18, 2019, 08:00:41 AM »

Prelim ECI figures on turnout.  Most likely will be adjusted upward by a few percentages.   If so turnout will mostly mimic 2014 with a small drop across the board.

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jaichind
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« Reply #243 on: April 18, 2019, 08:02:27 AM »

Example of cash seized by ECI.

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jaichind
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« Reply #244 on: April 18, 2019, 08:13:41 AM »

Turnout in Srinagar in Kashmir will most likely be around 17% which is higher than the 7% in the 2017 by-election but still low.  The level of militancy which have been dropping in the 1995-2010 period is rising again and this type of turnout is reflective of the anger as well as the relative safety given threats from radical separatist groups. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #245 on: April 18, 2019, 09:30:00 AM »

I have been reading up on defections this LS election and found the one in Ahmednagar in Maharashtra quite interesting and  at the same time gives us some clues on how things are going. 

The situation in Ahmednagar is Sujay Vikhe Patil, the son of the INC leader of opposition in the state assembly Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil,  defected to BJP and was given the BJP ticket to run.  The BJP dropped the incumbent Dilip Kumar Gandhi who won here in 1999 2009 and 2014 whose son will be running as a BJP rebel.    Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil the father of the INC defector seems to insist that he will stay in INC but was seen campaigning for his son who is now running on the BJP ticket.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2019-congress-red-faced-maharashtra-leader-campaigns-for-son-who-joined-bjp-2023895

The background of this is interesting.  INC leader of the opposition in the state assembly Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil is the son of Balasaheb Vikhe Patil who is a long time INC leader who passed away in 2016.  Balasaheb Vikhe Patil was a key rival to Sharad Pawar (who went on to form NCP in 1999) inside the INC.  When Sharad Pawar was giving the power to run the INC campaign in Maharashtra in 1998,  Balasaheb Vikhe Patil defected to SHS who fielded him in Ahmednagar and defeated the INC candidate despite a INC sweep in the rest of Maharashtra.  In 1999 Sharad Pawar split from INC and formed NCP.     Balasaheb Vikhe Patil stayed in SHS given the national wave seems to be on the BJP side in 1999.  The Ahmednagar seat was given by SHS to BJP so Balasaheb Vikhe Patil ran for SHS in another seat and won.  But soon after that Balasaheb Vikhe Patil defected back to INC running for in this nearby seat and winning in 2004.  As for  Ahmednagar Dilip Kumar Gandhi ran and won in 1999 with the INC and NCP candidate splitting the anti-BJP vote.   In 2004 INC-NCP formed an alliance and the seat was given to NCP and BJP dropped Dilip Kumar Gandhi which resulted in the victory of NCP in 2004.  In 2009 Dilip Kumar Gandhi came back to run for BJP and defeated the NCP candidate due to the presence of an INC rebel.  In 2014 Dilip Kumar Gandhi won in a landslide over NCP on the Modi wave.

Now in 2019 Balasaheb Vikhe Patil  has passed away and his son Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil is the INC leader of the opposition in the state assembly.  Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil wanted Ahmednagar to be given back to INC by NCP who the Patil clan view as a rival given the Patil-Pawar rivalry going back decades so his own son Sujay Vikhe Patil can run here.  INC-NCP talks led to NCP retaining the seat so    Sujay Vikhe Patil defected to BJP who gave him the ticket to run for BJP and dropping Dilipkumar Mansukhlal Gandhi along the way. Dilipkumar Mansukhlal Gandhi's son jumped in as a BJP rebel.

The Patil family is called a "sugar baron" since they control all the sugar mills in the area and all the sugar co-ops and workers are dependent on them economically so for the BJP the Patil clan is a nice catch.  The question is, why would the BJP spend the political capital to bring on board the Patil clan when in 2014 the result was

BJP    57.0%
NCP   37.3%

The BJP dropped an incumbent who won by 20% last election to import an rebel from INC and along the way provoked an internal BJP rebellion.  It logically does not make sense.  The logical expatiation would be a combination of BJP's desire to get the Patil clan on-board which would be useful later in the year in state assembly elections and the fact that BJP-SHS, at least in this area, is nowhere as strong as 2014 as the Modi wave recedes so this is a risk worth taking.  If so then at least in central Maharashtra the BJP-SHS might be in more trouble than recent polling would suggest. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #246 on: April 18, 2019, 06:44:33 PM »

In UP, a Dalit BSP supporter voted for BJP by mistake and chopped his finger off in anger and then put this news on social media.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/dalit-youth-bsp-supporter-chops-finger-vote-bjp-elections-mistake-1505330-2019-04-18
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jaichind
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« Reply #247 on: April 18, 2019, 06:54:49 PM »

My initial reactions to the turnout figures are

1) TN turnout seems to have stayed at historic highs which in the current context is pretty negative for AIADMK-BJP combine.
2) UP an Bihar turnout might fall somewhat which I guess is receding of the Modi wave the clearly took place in 2014.  What is interesting is that in Muslim areas in Bihar turnout if anything is higher than 2014.  Of course this narrative might be reversed if more up-to-date figures show the turnout falloff ends up being very small.
3) Karnataka turnout seems to have dropped off significantly.    Either this is a falloff in the Modi wave or it is INC and JD(S) voters not voting due to anger of the INC-JD(S) alliance which does not seem to be working on the ground.  Most likely it is both so I think these two effects might be canceling each other out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #248 on: April 18, 2019, 07:19:34 PM »

The AAP-INC alliance talks collapsed again.  It seems once again it is over AAP's desire to link it to an alliance in Haryana.  The back an forth seems to be:

INC: Lets go for an alliance in Delhi where it is AAP 4 seats INC 3 seats
AAP:  Either it is AAP 5 seats INC 2 seats in Delhi OR AAP 4 seats INC 3 seats in Delhi IF there is also an INC-AAP alliance in Haryana
INC: AAP 5 seats INC 2 seats in Delhi is not acceptable.  What sort of alliance do you propose in Haryana
AAP: In Haryana we already formed an alliance with JJP where it is JJP 7 seats AAP 3 seats.  Just for you we are willing to accept INC 6 seats JJG 3 seats AAP 1 seat.
INC: No, in Haryana the best we can do is INC 7 seat JJP 2 seats AAP 1 seat
AAP: There is no way we can get JJP to accept that
INC: OK, so I guess the alliance talks are coming to an end.


Still with 3-4 more days before candidates are finalized I suspect there will be one more round of brinkmanship before this alliance is truly dead.
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jaichind
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« Reply #249 on: April 18, 2019, 07:29:22 PM »

One thing that is interesting about the on again off again AAP-INC alliance talks are that the BJP now is constantly delaying coming out with its own candidate list.  BJP ideally want to know if the AAP-INC alliance is on before figuring out which candidates to run in Delhi.  All 7 Delhi incumbents are from BJP and for them this is torture since they cannot really get going to spend the money and resources to mobilize for the election.  I am not if that is a feature or a bug of the AAP-INC on again and off again alliance talks but in Delhi candidate selection has become frozen for the BJP.  To some extend this sort of proves that the BJP bravado that BJP will win all 7 Delhi seats no matter what is not really true although I personally think the BJP will have the edge in Delhi one way or another.
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