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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 26268 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #450 on: May 20, 2019, 10:13:16 pm »

Some of the exit pollsters came out with their methodology which sort of explains the divergence in their results. 

India Today-Axis which had a NDA landslide with NDA 352 UPA 93  seems did not poll based on candidates.  Instead they polled people's approval of different parties by various demographics and then used the demographics of each district to construct the winning party.   Given the relative popularity of Modi/BJP vis-a-vis Gandhi/INC one can see how a NDA landslide must be the result.

ABP-CSDS which has NDA with a bare majority at NDA 277 UPA 130 tried to filter out peer pressure to that might lead someone to voice support BJP/Modi.  It sounds a lot like Trafalgar tried to detect hidden Trump voters in 2016.

While India Today-Axis approach seems illogical because it seems like trying to predict the USA House of Rep election based on a series of generic party approval polls without consideration of the candidates it could end up being taking place.  If the 2019 election ends up being a post-caste election where Modi has transcended caste as a key factor in voting behavior but instead just view their vote to be for Modi then the result of the India Today-Axis could take place.  If so the LS election of 2019 after the 2014 Modi anti-INC wave victory would be like FDR realignment election 1936 after a 1932 FDR victory over an exhausted GOP regime.  2014 Modi victory would be a standard anti-incumbent surge but 2019 would be a complete political realignment of the voting patterns that would produce a framework of BJP majorities in several elections to come.  Modi start a new era of BJP domination much like Nehru built a INC machine that would win several elections in a role as a dominate ruling party.

I personally do not think that is what we are looking at but it could be what takes place on May 23.
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jaichind
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« Reply #451 on: May 21, 2019, 08:52:51 am »

Various opposition parties are convinced (or convinced themselves) that these exit polls that does not match their ground reports are part of a plot to rig the EVM.  They seem to have little faith in ECI.  So a lot of them are holding 24-7 watch on the EVM storage locations across the country.


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jaichind
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« Reply #452 on: May 21, 2019, 08:57:18 am »

A lot of local non-English media seems to come out with projection numbers not as favorable for the BJP as the national exit polls.  Does not mean they are right.  I think the results will show which of the two election models we are now living in, a candidate personality/caste driven election system or a post-caste national election system.  If the former then the local media approach of seat by seat analysis of the caste identities of the candidates and population will prove correct.  If the later then the Modi/BJP image will overcome anti-incumbency caste equation politics which was so prominent since 1989 and sweep to a massive BJP landslide. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #453 on: May 21, 2019, 09:25:26 am »
« Edited: May 21, 2019, 09:30:02 am by Oryxslayer »

Right now I don't think the election is rigged or corrupted, at least any more than the usual. What's likely happening is that Modi's and the BJP's approvals are carrying a lot of weight in the national models when they may not end up being factors in a bunch of seats - unless as you say there has been a reallignment. You don't have many variables to work with on a national level that are useful through all 7 waves and can match the intricacies of the religious/caste/ethnic/regional/tribal/etc issues. So everything rests on the assumption that Modi's approved will be the most powerful factor, it's up to each individual to decide if this variable is as powerful as assumed. There is a reason for the usually unreasonable levels of error in the exit polls.
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jaichind
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« Reply #454 on: May 21, 2019, 09:51:53 am »

A look at turnout data from constituency I got from the last few rounds seems to still show the same trends.  Relative under-performance in terms of turnout in urban areas and over-performance in term of turnout in tribal Muslim and rural areas.  In Modi's own seat of Varanasi turnout actually dropped.  For the BJP to win by a large margin like the exit polls indicated then a bunch of voters that voted against the BJP in 2014 during an pro-BJP anti-incumbent surge will not have to switch their vote to BJP this time around as well as BJP getting a large chunk of new voter votes.  There is no getting around that fact.
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jaichind
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« Reply #455 on: May 21, 2019, 10:04:41 am »

Right now I don't think the election is rigged or corrupted, at least any more than the usual. What's likely happening is that Modi's and the BJP's approvals are carrying a lot of weight in the national models when they may not end up being factors in a bunch of seats - unless as you say there has been a reallignment. You don't have many variables to work with on a national level that are useful through all 7 waves and can match the intricacies of the religious/caste/ethnic/regional/tribal/etc issues. So everything rests on the assumption that Modi's approved will be the most powerful factor, it's up to each individual to decide if this variable is as powerful as assumed. There is a reason for the usually unreasonable levels of error in the exit polls.

Clearly there is no organized cheating.  I think the opposition parties running around talking about EVMs is partly them internalizing the fact even if the exit polls were off the BJP did very well so they have to explain that fact to their cadre.  Blaming possible cheating on ECI is part of that story.  Also doing this is a way to signal to each other they have not given up.  There is still a small chance that NDA fall well short of a majority.  So if the anti-BJP parties are not ready to  to to the pro-BJP President of India with a coherent anti-BJP alliance  then Modi will get a first shot to lure neutral parties like BJD and YSRCP on their side.  By barking about cheating by ECI the various anti-BJP parties are signaling to each other they they are not giving up and to take plans on forming an post-election alliance seriously.
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jaichind
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« Reply #456 on: May 21, 2019, 10:15:09 am »

As for this election being a national election or not really comes down the to if the BJP can get national acceptance on its national building vision versus that of the INC.

The INC vision of nation building us based on the USA model of unifying a nation around a set of rationalist principles that can superseded individual community identities that will continue to exist along side the rationalist consensus.   

The BJP vision of nation building uses Bismarck Germany and modern China as the model which centers around a common historical narrative that focus on a fusion of related and but disparate identities into one super-arching nationalist narrative.  A post-caste India where caste identities can be subsumed into a Hindu Indo-Aryan identity would be the BJP vision of building a functional superpower that can rival USA and PRC.

So in many ways if the BJP can get the Hindu Indo-Aryan population to think in the way they want them to think then the BJP is headed for a landslide victory that would serve the basis of a long term BJP domination of Indian politics and direction of the nation as a whole.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #457 on: May 21, 2019, 11:09:24 am »

News Nation The McLaughlin Group like panel of senior journalists predictions

       NDA    UPA
A      300     105
B      324      74  -> must be their Pat Buchanan
C      180     190 -> must be their Eleanor Clift
D      315      90
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #458 on: May 21, 2019, 11:40:02 am »

As for this election being a national election or not really comes down the to if the BJP can get national acceptance on its national building vision versus that of the INC.

The INC vision of nation building us based on the USA model of unifying a nation around a set of rationalist principles that can superseded individual community identities that will continue to exist along side the rationalist consensus.   

The BJP vision of nation building uses Bismarck Germany and modern China as the model which centers around a common historical narrative that focus on a fusion of related and but disparate identities into one super-arching nationalist narrative.  A post-caste India where caste identities can be subsumed into a Hindu Indo-Aryan identity would be the BJP vision of building a functional superpower that can rival USA and PRC.

So in many ways if the BJP can get the Hindu Indo-Aryan population to think in the way they want them to think then the BJP is headed for a landslide victory that would serve the basis of a long term BJP domination of Indian politics and direction of the nation as a whole.   

I don’t think so , I look at it more that the INC wants to make India more like a Modern Day Europe while the BJP wants to make India more like the US . I don’t see Modi as really any more nationalist than say George W Bush was .

I mean the reason he seems more nationalist in India than Bush seemed here is because it seems out of the ordinary in India while it isn’t out of the ordinary here . I mean take Europe for example if a party their was even as nationalist as the Dem Party was here till around 2005 it would be considered too overtly nationalist and if it was as nationalist as the GOP was say even in 2004 and 2005 version it would be considered extreme far right  .


I think India should be more like the US than Europe



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jaichind
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« Reply #459 on: May 21, 2019, 01:19:33 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2019, 01:24:23 pm by jaichind »

As for AP assembly election the exit polls are

                         TDP           YSRCP        JSP
India Today       37-40        130-135         1    
INSS Media       118               52             5
People's Pulse      59             112            4
TV5                  105               68             2
I-News                49             100
CPS                 37-40         133-135



I am pretty sure YSRCP should win.  JSP will cut into the Kapu vote which historically vote TDP anyway so it is hard to see how JSP running separately will help TDP on a caste voting structure basis.
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jaichind
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« Reply #460 on: May 22, 2019, 11:38:42 am »

Betting markets are still at around 240 seats for BJP and 80 seats for INC and NDA around 300.

https://www.mumbailive.com/en/politics/satta-market-seats-loksabha-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-36090
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jaichind
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« Reply #461 on: May 22, 2019, 11:41:42 am »

For what it is worth Varanasi Astrologers predict BJP at 140-160 seats and NDA at 220-240 (which makes no sense since that would mean NDA allies will be at 80 which is very unlikely if BJP held to 140-160) and NDA at 110-140 which is fairly inconsistent with NDA at 220-240

https://www.latestly.com/india/politics/lok-sabha-elections-2019-bjp-not-to-win-more-than-140-160-seats-nda-220-240-predict-varanasi-astrologers-864442.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #462 on: May 22, 2019, 01:36:57 pm »

CSDS published their vote share estimates

Looks like

NDA   41%
UPA   29%

Which would be a blowout victory for NDA
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jaichind
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« Reply #463 on: May 22, 2019, 02:40:26 pm »

Final projection from me post exit polls.

I am mostly going to double down on the election being state-centric and not national in nature.  On that basis I tend to go with worse than expected performance for the state incumbent party.  Based exit polls I do accept for places like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP where there is a new state government the INC will not get a honeymoon bounce due to Modi impact.  I also accept based on exit polls that in Gujarat Modi is able to overcome state anti-incumbency as the favorite son.  Elsewhere I am giving the state ruling party/bloc worse than expected performance.  

J&K: I decided to break up my projection by each region (Kashmir, Ladakh, Jammu)

Kashmir:
Very low turnout so who knows what will take place.  But generally slight edge for JKN

2019
NDA:       0 BJP          2.1%
UPA:        0 INC         4.1% (tactically alliance with JKN)
Others     2 JKN        41.5% (tactical alliance with INC)
               1 PDP       30.4%
               0 JPC        14.9% (Separatist)

2014
NDA:      0 (0 BJP)                   1.4%
UPA:       0 (0 JKN)                34.9%
Others:   3 PDP                     46.9%
              0 JPC                       6.3%


Ladakh:
4 way battle with INC winning as it gains Buddhist vote from BJP

NDA:       0 BJP          23.6%
UPA:        1 INC         33.2%  
Others     0 ISK          28.1% (backed by JKN and PDP)  
               0 INC rebel  13.1%

2014
NDA:      1 (1 BJP)                 26.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                22.6%
Others:   0 ISK                      24,2%
              0 INC rebel              26.6%


Jammu:
Hindu consolidation should see BJP through

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        46.3%
UPA:        0 INC       41.3% (backed by JKN and PDP)
Others     0 BJP rebel  5.0%
 
2014
NDA:      2 (2 BJP)                 48.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                34.6%
              0 PDP                      8.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 3 BJP     52.1%
UPA: 1 INC     45.0%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      7 BJP              41.5%
UPA:      3 INC              28.0%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.4%
             0 INLD              6.2%
             0 JJP-AAP        14.1%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     4 (3 SAD, 1 BJP)     34.3%
UPA:     9 INC                     37.7%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF           9.6%
            0 AAP                     14.2%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP nearly sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    6 BJP     43.0%
UPA:     1 INC    33.3%
Others: 0 AAP    19.2%
            0 BSP     3.1%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.2%
UPA:     1 INC           41.5%
Others  0 BSP             7.9%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    32 (30 BJP 2 AD(S))                            40.1%
UPA:      3 INC-JAP (3 INC)                              11.3%
Others: 45 SP-BSP-RLD(24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD )  41.7%
             0 PSP-PECP                                        1.9%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (14 BJP 9 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      47.7%
UPA:    12 (5 RJD 4 INC 2 RLSP 1 HAM 0 VIP)    39.9% (tactical alliance with CPI(ML)
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               3.2% (tactical alliance with UPA)

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory but still INC makes gains in tribal and urban areas
 
2019
NDA:  22 BJP              50.7%
UPA:    7  INC             41.3%
Others 0 SP-BSP-GGP   4.7%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 21 BJP (20 BJP 1 RLP)     52.2%
UPA:   4 INC                           42.3%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    5 BJP          42.8%
UPA:     6 INC         46.4%
Others: 0 BSP          5.4% (backed by JCC but not running)

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM  alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.  In the end RJD had a tactical alliance with UPA

2019
NDA:    4 (4 BJP 0 AJSU)                      40.6%
UPA:     9 (4 JMM 3 INC 2 JVM )            44.0%
Others: 1 RJD                                       4.6%
            0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                   3.1%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
Others:0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  22 BJP        52.9%
UPA:    4 INC        41.8%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA-AIMIM will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       30 (18 BJP 12 SHS)                             45.2%
UPA:        18 (7 INC 9 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   41.2%
Others:     0 VBA-AIMIM                                       7.1%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA:  1 BJP     50.0%
UPA:   1 INC    43.7%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:      15 BJP             36.1%
UPA:         2 INC              7.5%
Others:   25 AITC           40.0%
               0  Left Front    13.1%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP victory here even as BJD might have an edge in the assembly election.

2019
NDA:    14 BJP                         43.7%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    16.2%
Others:  7 BJD                         37.1%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP to capture a shock win here.  JD(S)-INC state government likely to fall after LS election results out.

2019
NDA:        18 (14 BJP 0 BJP Ind)  48.3%
UPA:        10 (7 INC 3 JD(S))       45.8%
Others:      0 UPP                        2.1%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       5.0%
UPA:        0 INC                      4.2%
Others:  20 YSRCP                 41.0%
              5 TDP                     35.3%
              0 JSP-BSP               10.2% (tactical alliance with Left)
              0 CPI-CPM-CPM(ML)   2.2% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       1 INC                  32.0%
Others: 15 TRS                  45.0%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP             3.0% (tactical alliance with CPI-CPM)
              0 CPI-CPM            1.0% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.   NMN eats into the UPA vote or else it will be a massive UPA landslide.

Note Vellore election was called off but my projection will still be based on all 39 seats.

2019
NDA:      4 (2 AIADMK 1 BJP 1 PMK 1 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 1 PNK)         35.1%
UPA      35 (19 DMK 9 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 0 MUL 1 IJK 0 KMDK )  44.1%
Others:  0 AMMK-SDPI                                                                    12.0%
             0 NMN                                                                                5.7%
              
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.9%
UPA:      17 (13 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  41.7%
Others:   2  Left Front                                   33.3%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA even as AIUDF Muslim vote swing to INC.

2019
NDA:       6 (5 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     40.8%
UPA:        7 INC                            42.0%
Others:    1 AIUDF                          9.9%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a couple of seats

2019
NDA:     3 (3 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     3 (2 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge.  

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      2 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             3 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 251 (221 BJP)  39.7% (32.3% BJP)
UPA   154 (98 INC)   30.8% (22.7% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.  NDA beats UPA vote share by around 9%.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 221 seats and second place 150 seats making its "reach" 371
INC will come in first place in 98 seats and second place 167 seats making its "reach" 265

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            3 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (5 TDP 2 JKN)
Federal Front     42 (20 YSRCP 15 TRS 7 BJD)
Grand Alliance   70 (25 AITC 24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD)
Left                   6 (2 Left Front 2 CPI 2 CPM) [2 CPI 2 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           5 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM 1 PDP)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.
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jaichind
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« Reply #464 on: May 22, 2019, 02:58:25 pm »

INC workers sleeping outside the counting station in the UP seat of Unnao to guard the EVM inside.  Unnao is one of the few seats where INC has a chance to win in UP.  This seems to be replicated across many states by the main anti-BJP party of said state.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #465 on: May 22, 2019, 04:09:39 pm »

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.
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« Reply #466 on: May 22, 2019, 05:22:41 pm »

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.
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jaichind
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« Reply #467 on: May 22, 2019, 05:32:34 pm »

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.

Overall.  Note counting is NOT random.  They announce results in rounds.  So they completely count precinct 1-10, announce results, then count precinct 11-20, then announced combined results etc etc.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #468 on: May 22, 2019, 06:00:06 pm »

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.

Overall.  Note counting is NOT random.  They announce results in rounds.  So they completely count precinct 1-10, announce results, then count precinct 11-20, then announced combined results etc etc.

Got,  it, thanks. Like everything else in the Indian elections, this is different from what we see in other nations.
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jaichind
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« Reply #469 on: May 22, 2019, 06:08:36 pm »

As for results I tend to use NDTV

https://www.ndtv.com/

for the fastest results.  Main problem is early on a lot of results will be postal votes which will skew the results (and tend to lean BJP).  NDTV also show unofficial results from stringers

The official ECI site

https://results.eci.gov.in/

is really slow and useful only toward the end.  But what this site does is it does a good job aggregating vote share when it dose show results which is a useful tool to get a sense what the result will end up being.
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jaichind
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« Reply #470 on: May 22, 2019, 06:14:13 pm »

Turnout in 2019 in historical preservative



The bad news for INC overall is that higher turnout (1967 1977 2014) are anti-INC waves with only 1 (1984) pro-INC waves.  2019 is more likely to be an anti-INC wave.  On the flip side the anti-INC waves (1967 1977 2014) are also anti-incumbent waves  while only 1984 is a pro-incumbent wave.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #471 on: May 22, 2019, 07:10:57 pm »

What are some of the English Channels again to watch the results(We have Sling International even though we rarely use it)
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jaichind
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« Reply #472 on: May 22, 2019, 07:17:56 pm »

What are some of the English Channels again to watch the results(We have Sling International even though we rarely use it)

NDTV live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR7HkEa3Swg

India Today live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7dbhET6_EA

CNN-News18 live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ddwo0kHYuE

Republic TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJPrdTSWbfs

I will be watching NDTV because they tend to be the fastest
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RoboWop
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« Reply #473 on: May 22, 2019, 08:18:52 pm »

Is it even worth staying up for this on the East Coast?
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RoboWop
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« Reply #474 on: May 22, 2019, 09:02:56 pm »

NDTV hosts just roasted Hillary Clinton for claiming that Russians stole the election.
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