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November 13, 2019, 07:34:19 pm
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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 32205 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #650 on: May 23, 2019, 04:10:57 pm »

Odisha, like 2014, held LS and assembly elections on the same day.  We can look at the NDA UPA BJD vote share in the 2014 and 2019 LS and assembly elections as a way to measure the size of the Modi factor.

2014 LS

BJD   44.8%
BJP   21.9%
INC   26.4%

2014 assembly

BJD   43.9%
BJP   18.2%
INC   26.0%

BJP outperformed in the LS election by 3.7%

Now lets look at 2019 (these vote share do not remove NOTA so they are lower than they should be)

2019 LS

BJD    42.8%
BJP    38.4%
INC+ 14.6%

2019 assembly

BJD    44.7%
BJP    32.6%
INC+  16.9%

BJP outperformed in the LS election by 5.8% so if anything the Modi impact is greater in 2019 than in 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #651 on: May 23, 2019, 04:22:05 pm »

Jaichind, can you explain to us exactly why the "winning party's seat count keeps growing as the counting goes on" phenomenon occurs? That was clearly the case tonight, since early seat counts had UPA flipping 50 seats or so from the NDA, and almost all those flips evaporated as counting went on. I have no idea why that would happen, though. I could understand if the counting bias always favored the UPA early on and the NDA always grew as the night went on, but you seem to suggest that whatever party is winning will be underestimated early on, which I can't think of a mechanism for.

The way to explain is that the way the count works is they count a block of precincts, report results then count another bloc of precincts and then report the combined result.  Because of that the count is NOT random and will have clear biases.  The bias is random but large.  So in the earlier round the vote share could be off as much by, say 10%, or even greater from the real final vote share.

Now, lets imagine an election where Party A defeated Party B 55% to 45% in overall vote share.  Lets assume the vote share per seat is a bell distribution around the 55/45 A vs B point.  So the real result will have party A winning 75% of the seats.  Now in the early round each result will be randomly add 10% or subtract 10% from A's vote share.  Say in half the seats A's vote share is artificially reported as 10% higher than it is and half of the seats A's vote share is artistically reported as 10% lower than it is .  Now, since A is beating B by 10% on average in the seats that we artificially add 10% to A's vote share does nothing to the reported leader of the seat since most likely A was already ahead in the real result anyway. But in the half the seats where we artificially reduce the reported vote share of A then it could lead us to report that B is ahead.  Now as the real results do come in as more and more precincts are counted the true vote share of that seat is revealed reverting a lot of B reported leads as really A leads.

Now if the election is 50/50 or neck-to-neck between A and B then this random shift does nothing to the seat count on average.  That is why I said

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.


Is true. If it is landslide then  as the count goes on the landslide lead gets greater. if it is neck-to-neck then it stays neck-to-neck the whole time

I noticed this watching Indian election returns years ago and after some thinking figured out why.  This is why I focus on the early vote share reports on ECI by state as a way to figure out what the final seat count is going to be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #652 on: May 23, 2019, 07:15:44 pm »

10 Former INC CMs have lost LS polls

1.SHEILA DIXIT - Delhi
2.BHUPENDRA SINGH HOODA - Haryana
3.HARISH RAWAT - Uttarakhand
4.ASHOK CHAVAN - Maharashtra
5.SUSHIL KUMAR SHINDE - Maharashtra
6.M VERAPPA MOILY - Karnataka
7.NABAM TUKI - Arunachal Pradesh
8.MUKUL SANGMA - Meghalaya
9.DIGVIJAY SINGH - MP
10. K.L. CHISHI - Nagaland
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #653 on: May 23, 2019, 07:18:31 pm »

The humiliation of Congress Princelings (literally in the one case lmao) is a theme: not only Rahul G. - Lord High Emperor of Failsons - doing the most Rahul G. thing ever and losing at Amethi, but see also the results at Guna and Rohtak.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #654 on: May 23, 2019, 07:18:48 pm »

Image Link
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Chancellor S019
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« Reply #655 on: May 23, 2019, 07:20:33 pm »


Orange Rajasthan and UP, Congress did really bad
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #656 on: May 23, 2019, 07:21:41 pm »


look at Kolkata lol
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #657 on: May 23, 2019, 07:36:13 pm »

This was probably the least suspenseful international election so far of this year. And as usual, the right wing party won. This was fairly expected though, so I don't feel that much like s*** this time.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #658 on: May 23, 2019, 07:58:20 pm »


Kolkata is actually AITC still, is the surrounding towns/suburbs/slums that are orange.

 
This was probably the least suspenseful international election so far of this year. And as usual, the right wing party won. This was fairly expected though, so I don't feel that much like s*** this time.

This should actually be one of the most interesting elections of 2019 (so far just behind Spain), its not everyday so see a country decide to unmake their system and reallign into a new era. its just not interesting from the birds eye view where India remains Orange. But this was an incredibly Bi-Polar election, with the unalligned/third-way blocks losing seats and votes to the big two blocks. The BJP was able to resist the traditionally negative caste/regional winds and give India truly national election for the first time in a long time. The INC was just playing an old game when the rules had already changed. But who knows if they will be able to reshape their brand in these next five years to reflect the new national system.


Oh, and I'll be having detailed maps on my twitter in the coming days, once everything is called and I can analyze states.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #659 on: May 23, 2019, 09:21:13 pm »


You mean 2019, not 2018, right?
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jaichind
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« Reply #660 on: May 23, 2019, 09:34:04 pm »

So if 2014 map is similar to the Maratha Empire
Image Link

Then 2019 map with NDA doing deals with YSRCP and BJD would be the Mauryan Empire
Image Link

 
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RoboWop
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« Reply #661 on: May 23, 2019, 09:41:27 pm »


You're forgetting about the time difference.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #662 on: May 24, 2019, 12:14:59 am »

Here's another thought I had pouring over the results: in 2015, five states (Odisha, WB, AP, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) elected near large numbers of local alliances. In 2019, those states that had concurrent locals (Odisha, AP) saw the local vote hold up better than in those states that didn't. Admittedly, AIADMK and YSRCP were always going to lose/win, the question was just by how much. The answer turned out to be 'a lot.'  Those that did not have concurrent local elections lacked their local message perhaps to counter the national message from or against the BJP.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #663 on: May 24, 2019, 12:50:50 am »

Thanks for the explanation, Jaichind. I'd never thought of it that way but it does make sense.


This should actually be one of the most interesting elections of 2019 (so far just behind Spain), its not everyday so see a country decide to unmake their system and reallign into a new era. its just not interesting from the birds eye view where India remains Orange. But this was an incredibly Bi-Polar election, with the unalligned/third-way blocks losing seats and votes to the big two blocks. The BJP was able to resist the traditionally negative caste/regional winds and give India truly national election for the first time in a long time. The INC was just playing an old game when the rules had already changed. But who knows if they will be able to reshape their brand in these next five years to reflect the new national system.

Yeah, whether one is happy with the result or not (I'm not, of course), it does display some fascinating trends and portends a lot of implications for the future of Indian politics. I'm looking forward to hearing more about those.


Quote
Oh, and I'll be having detailed maps on my twitter in the coming days, once everything is called and I can analyze states.

Please post them here too! I don't have Twitter but I'd like to follow along.
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pikachu
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« Reply #664 on: May 24, 2019, 04:34:37 am »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system - if we look at results in West Bengal and Orissa, yeah there's been big drop from 2014 to 2019 for the regional parties, but if we compare to 2009, the BJP's around the same level of the Communists and Congress respectively. In a lot of these states, it doesn't look like the BJP is replacing regional parties; it's replacing whatever the national opposition to those regional parties was, whether it be the Congress or something else.

(I'm also skeptical that the INC is going to come up with a compelling enough alternative to have a national sweep when the BJP falters, but that's another story.)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #665 on: May 24, 2019, 05:25:06 am »

You mean 2019, not 2018, right?

Just a typo, yes. But as it's a provisional map I won't correct it - well, I will, but only when I remove the note that the map is provisional as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #666 on: May 24, 2019, 07:25:09 am »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system - if we look at results in West Bengal and Orissa, yeah there's been big drop from 2014 to 2019 for the regional parties, but if we compare to 2009, the BJP's around the same level of the Communists and Congress respectively. In a lot of these states, it doesn't look like the BJP is replacing regional parties; it's replacing whatever the national opposition to those regional parties was, whether it be the Congress or something else.

(I'm also skeptical that the INC is going to come up with a compelling enough alternative to have a national sweep when the BJP falters, but that's another story.)

It is not the death of regional parties but only those regional parties which are caste based.  YSRCP, TDP, BJD, DMK, AIADMK, and AITC are regionalism  forces not not caste based.  SP(Yadavs) BSP(Dalits) RLD(Jats), INLD (Jats), JJP (INLD splinter so Jats), RJD(Yadav), RLSP(Kushwahas), VIP(Nishads), JSP(Kappus), PMK(Vanniyar), PT(Velalar), HAM(Manjhi) all did poorly.    Only exception is BJP ally LJP in Bihar which is about representing the Paswans.
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« Reply #667 on: May 24, 2019, 08:19:37 am »

So is this a symptom of the caste system itself being less relevant? Could this portend a post-caste India? After all, I note that Modi seems to have promised a lot more AA based on wealth rather than caste ("there are only two castes") - should we read anything deeper in this?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #668 on: May 24, 2019, 08:26:40 am »

So is this a symptom of the caste system itself being less relevant? Could this portend a post-caste India? After all, I note that Modi seems to have promised a lot more AA based on wealth rather than caste ("there are only two castes") - should we read anything deeper in this?

No. What is true is that the very specific sort of caste grievance politics that emerged after the Mandal Commission is floundering (but then it was five years ago as well: the RJD getting shut out isn't any more obviously symbolic than the same happening to the BSP), but that isn't the same thing as caste politics. Note that the SP polled poorly because much of their base was unhappy with the alliance with the BSP; this is pure caste politics.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #669 on: May 24, 2019, 08:28:03 am »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system

Yeah, there's absolutely no evidence for this whatsoever. In fact there's only evidence of one thing: a BJP landslide. Turning that into POLARISATION is a big, big reach.
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jaichind
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« Reply #670 on: May 24, 2019, 08:38:08 am »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system

Yeah, there's absolutely no evidence for this whatsoever. In fact there's only evidence of one thing: a BJP landslide. Turning that into POLARISATION is a big, big reach.

Agreed there is no evidence.  There is an argument that the defeat of various caste based parties would mean some of their supporter flow back to INC. Of course it is just as likely they flow to BJP.  So the INC could benefit from this but it is not obvious that they will.
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jaichind
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« Reply #671 on: May 24, 2019, 08:40:34 am »

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.
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jaichind
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« Reply #672 on: May 24, 2019, 09:38:47 am »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 09:54:11 am by jaichind »

Some interesting state level swings

WB
                 Vote share                Seats
AITC        43.7%(+3.9%)         22 (-12)
BJP          40.6%(+23.6%)       18 (+16)
Left           7.5%(-22.4%)          0(-2)
INC           5.7%(-4.0%)            2(-2)

During the 1980s and 1990s it was Left vs INC in WB.  The collapse of Left and INC is now complete.  AITC is the new INC and bizarrely BJP is the new Left Front.   The entire Left Front vote has shifted over to BJP to combat AITC.


Odisha
                 Vote share                Seats
BJD           43.0%(-1.8%)         12(-8)
BJP           38.9%(+17.0%)        8(+7)
INC+         14.9%(-11.5%)        1(+1)

The INC base shifted to BJP but INC formed an alliance with CPI-CPM-JMM and actually won a seat as the BJP ate into BJD vote too.


Haryana
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP           58.2%(+17.2%)        10(+3)
INC           28.5%(+4.1%)           0(-1)
BSP-LSP      4.1%(-0.6%)            0
INLD           1.9%(-22.5%)          0(-2)
JJP-AAP       5.3%(+1.0%)           0

In 2014 INC splinter HJC was allied with BJP who has since merged back into INC.  LSP is a BJP splinter that is allied with BSP this time.  JJP is a INLD splinter that allied with AAP.  This is the complete collapse of the INLD voting bloc with most of it going to BJP and some going to INC.


HP
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP           69.7%(+15.8%)         4(--)
INC           27.5%(-13.6%)          0(--)

Amazing surge by BJP after INC held BJP vote share margin in 2017 assembly election to 49.2% vs 42.1%


Rajasthan

                 Vote share                Seats
BJP+        61.1%(+5.5%)        25(--)
INC          34.6%(+3.9%)         0(--)
BSP           1.1%(-1.3%)           0

In 2014 there were a bunch of BJP rebels whose vote seems like went back to BJP.  INC actually gained ground relative to 2014 LS election but the gap is too big.  In 2018 assembly election INC+ actually beat BJP 40.4% to 39.3%


MP
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          58.5%(+5.5%)        28(+1)
INC          34.8%(-0.8%)          1(-1)
BSP+         2.8%(-2.4%)           0

INC actually mostly held its ground relative to 2014 but BJP ate into the rest of the non-INC vote share.  Back in 2018 assembly elections INC+ fought BJP to a tie in terms of vote share 41.5% to 41.6%.


Chhattisgarh
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          51.4%(+1.7%)         9(-1)
INC          41.5%(+2.4%)          2(+1)
BSP           2.3%(-0.1%)           0

BJP and INC continue to eat into the rest of the vote.  Great recovery by BJP which was defeated badly by INC in the 2018 assembly elections 43.9% vs 33.6%.  INC support seems fairly stable. It is all about BJP taking over the non-INC vote or not.


Uttarakhand
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          61.7%(+5.8%)         5(--)
INC         31.7%(-2.7%)           0(--)
BSP           4.5%(-0.3%)           0

In 2014 the BSP vote went to BJP.  This time it looks like BJP has kept that vote and continued to eat into the INC base.  Back in 2017 assembly elections BJP beat INC by a smaller margin 46.5% to 33.5%


Gujarat
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          63.1%(+3.0%)        26(--)
INC          32.6%(-1.8%)           0(--)

Amazing to see how the BJP could add to its 2014 winning margin.  In 2017 the INC+ held BJP's winning margin to 50.0% to 43.3%


Delhi
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP        56.9%(+10.3%)            7(--)
INC       22.6%(+7.4%)               0(--)                        
AAP       18.2%(-14.9%)              0(--)

APP lost support to both BJP and INC in a very polarized election where the BJP gained a lot on top of a very strong 2014 performance.


Goa
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP        51.9%(-2.2%)               1(-1)
INC       43.6%(+6.6%)               1(+1)
AAP         3.1%(-0.3%)               0    

Chaos in the BJP Goa state government cost the BJP some votes and a seat
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #673 on: May 24, 2019, 09:50:39 am »

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.

I have 355-90-97 as my final count...do you consider AD(S) part of the UPA despite being part of the NDA? For reference my count of UPA has INC-NCP-JD(S)-DMK-JMM-IUML-JKNC-Kerala Cong-+1 indie.
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jaichind
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« Reply #674 on: May 24, 2019, 10:14:54 am »

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.

I have 355-90-97 as my final count...do you consider AD(S) part of the UPA despite being part of the NDA? For reference my count of UPA has INC-NCP-JD(S)-DMK-JMM-IUML-JKNC-Kerala Cong-+1 indie.

I just copied off the various news sites.  I did not doing the count myself since I was too lazy. Understand that the count will be different because of the issue of: What is UPA?  We can
1) Define UPA as a the union of various state alliances that includes INC. 
OR
2) Parties that are part of UPA

Which leaves us with questions like

a) Would we exclude NCP in Lakshadweep since INC ran against NCP there but 2) would include NCP in Lakshadweep
2) How to count 2 CPI 2 CPM winners in TN ? CPI and CPM are opposed to UPA nationally but those 4 seats were won by being in the UPA alliance in TN.

And yes, totally possible people might mess up AD vs AD(S) in UP. AD(S) is part of NDA and won 2 seats but AD is aligned with INC and ran an Independent candidate with INC support but got very little votes. 
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