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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #750 on: June 13, 2019, 08:49:22 am »

Some not so good news for BJP on the economic front post election. 

During the election there were rumors  that the latest employment survey showed that the Indian unemployment reached a 45 year high.  The BJP government would not release this report since it would sort of show that the 2016-2017 demonetization did hurt the rural informal sector.  After the election the report did come out and confirmed the rumors.

Then just a couple of days ago Arvind Subramanian, a noted economist and top economic adviser to the Modi government until recently came out with report that indicated that the Indian GDP growth in the 2011-2016 period was most likely 4.5% and not 7.0% due to changes in methodology that took place in 2011 that skewed the numbers.   
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/view-indias-economy-is-in-crisis-after-reduced-gdp-estimate/articleshow/69766125.cms 

It is not clear if Arvind Subramanian is right but there had been plenty of other indicators that Indian GDP growth might be overstated where the formal sector is surging but informal sector is stagnating yet the economic figures seems to be measuring only the formal sector and assuming the rate of growth is the same for the informal sector.  The reason why this is a problem is part of the Modi brand is that Indian economic growth under Modi made India a Great Power again since the early 1700s and Modi got for India worldwide respect.  Now part of that narrative is being questioned from a statistical point of view.   Of course I doubt the average Joe on the street will care much about battles over how GDP is calculated. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #751 on: June 17, 2019, 10:49:45 am »

This story of INC's failed big data Project Shakti reads a lot like the Romney 2012 Orca only far worse.  It seems that INC tried to run a 543 district campaign which would be justified back in its heyday in the 1970s and 1980s but was way beyond its means these days.  The net result was tons of fake data which mean that the INC was not able to react to the Modi surge correctly as it was building.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/why-couldnt-congress-data-analytics-team-gauge-the-modi-2-0-wave-4107701.html

Other stories that sounds like the Romney 2012 campaign was that Rahul Gandhi, the day before the counting, was convinced that INC would win 150 seats based on feedback he received from his data team as well as various INC CMs.  He even call DMK's Stalin to offer him a position in a INC led cabinet and started to make phone calls of various INC candidates that he did not know but was convinced will be elected the next day. 

It also seems that in the SP-BSP camp,  SP's Akilish Yadav was convinced that SP-BSP will win at least 40 seats out of 80 in UP and was in touch with Rahul Gandhi to share the same feedback.

The net result was that counting day led to a massive shock to the Opposition camp.
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jaichind
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« Reply #752 on: June 19, 2019, 01:26:40 pm »

The Mint made a similar point I did about the regional unbalance of the BJP surge



I still like my organization of states into Hindi, non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Dravidan and Sino-Tibetian.  Their chart data on Region B is deceptive since Region B also has Maharashtra where half the seats are being contested by SHS which would artificially lower the BJP vote and seat count   

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/opinion-a-case-for-provincializing-the-bharatiya-janata-party-1560881327114.html


Back on the topic of NDA/BJP performance in states grouped by languages. I also computed vote share in the 1991-2019 period by such groups.

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%   37.1%  40.7%  42.8%  34.7%  31.8%  46.4%  55.3%
Indo-Aryan    22.0%   21.7%  39.9%  41.1%  38.4%  28.0%  37.5%  48.1%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%   13.2%  10.1%  18.5%   7.2%   31.2%  29.0%
Dravidian        5.5%    4.7%   27.0%  40.3%  33.5%   3.9%   26.2%  17.9%
Total            20.9%   23.9%   37.5%  41.3%   35.8% 24.1%  38.9%   45.4%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%  32.1%   35.7%  34.1%  30.1%  25.9%  44.2%  49.6%
Indo-Aryan    19.9%  17.6%   22.2%  23.1%  22.4%  20.4%  29.9%  39.8%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%    9.0%    5.6%   13.2%   7.2%  11.4%  19.8%
Dravdian         5.4%    4.6%   12.1%   8.2%    7.7%    3.7%    6.9%    7.2%
Total             20.1%  20.3%   25.6%  24.0%  22.3%  18.7%  31.1%  37.6%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi              0.0%    5.0%    5.0%    8.7%    4.6%   6.0%    2.2%   5.7%
Indo-Aryan     2.1%    4.1%   17.7%  18.1%  16.0%   7.7%    7.6%   8.4%
Sino-Tibetian   0.0%   0.0%     4.2%    4.5%    5.3%   0.0%  19.8%   9.2%
Dravidain        0.0%   0.1%   15.0%   32.2%  25.8%   0.2%  19.3% 10.7%
Total              0.8%    3.6%   11.8%   17.3%  13.5%   5.4%   7.8%    7.7%

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jaichind
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« Reply #753 on: June 20, 2019, 09:01:55 am »

It seems for now Rahul Gandhi is firm on going as INC leader.  The rumors are that Ashok Gehlot  will take over as INC president.  I think on the long run Rahul Gandhi might end up coming back as a leader of some sort.  I actually thought he did a good job in 2019 on the stump as opposed to 2014.  What he failed as was execution.  Ideally he should take on the role of the Chairman of the Board and have someone else take over as CEO/COO of INC.  Of course to be good a such as Chairman of the Board role he has to be good at forming relationship with the leaders of other opposition parties which it seems he is poor at and looking to his mother Sonia Gandhi to play that role.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #754 on: June 20, 2019, 06:38:25 pm »



Scenes from a day in the death of Indian Communism.
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jaichind
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« Reply #755 on: June 21, 2019, 12:48:24 pm »

BJP is making a big push again for the concept of "One nation, one election" or holding simultaneous elections for LS and state assembly election by keeping the length of the LS and state assembly fixed and synchronized. 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/one-nation-one-election/article28073916.ece

The BJP have been push things for at least 20 years. The theoretical reason is that it would save on resources.  But I think the real reason are the following: The BJP noticed that since the early 1990s the BJP vote share drop-off in assembly elections relative the the most recent LS election on the whole is worse than INC or other regional rivals.  So the BJP want to nationalize the assembly elections at a time that the BJP clearly have an edge at the national level.

In terms of execution this would require a constitutional change and I doubt it will be easy to do and most likely will not take place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #756 on: June 24, 2019, 09:19:10 am »

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/in-another-jolt-to-tdp-post-electoral-defeat-4-rajya-sabha-mps-defect-to-bjp-1561034851577.html

In AP, 4 out of 6 TDP MPs in the Upper House RS defected to BJP.  This does not trigger the anti-defection law since 2/3 of the party delegation would be defecting.  What is funny is

a) 2 of these 2 TDP RS MPs are industrial titans the the BJP have recently criticized for being corrupt and part of the black money problem in India. Now they will join BJP
b) YSRCP claims that these 4 TDP MPs defected to BJP on TDP instructure as part of some sort of TDP leader Naidu plot to hurt YSRCP in the next elections by recreating the TDP-BJP alliance.
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Snipee356
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« Reply #757 on: June 24, 2019, 10:10:06 am »
« Edited: June 24, 2019, 10:19:29 am by Snipee356 »

BJP is making a big push again for the concept of "One nation, one election" or holding simultaneous elections for LS and state assembly election by keeping the length of the LS and state assembly fixed and synchronized. 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/one-nation-one-election/article28073916.ece

The BJP have been push things for at least 20 years. The theoretical reason is that it would save on resources.  But I think the real reason are the following: The BJP noticed that since the early 1990s the BJP vote share drop-off in assembly elections relative the the most recent LS election on the whole is worse than INC or other regional rivals.  So the BJP want to nationalize the assembly elections at a time that the BJP clearly have an edge at the national level.

In terms of execution this would require a constitutional change and I doubt it will be easy to do and most likely will not take place.

This is the first formal step towards dictatorship. And as usual the opposition doesn't/can't care.

To demonstrate the gravity of the situation that everyone seems to be ignoring: This is akin to if the Republicans were to eliminate midterms and off-year elections altogether.
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jaichind
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« Reply #758 on: June 25, 2019, 10:54:19 am »

BJP is making a big push again for the concept of "One nation, one election" or holding simultaneous elections for LS and state assembly election by keeping the length of the LS and state assembly fixed and synchronized. 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/one-nation-one-election/article28073916.ece

The BJP have been push things for at least 20 years. The theoretical reason is that it would save on resources.  But I think the real reason are the following: The BJP noticed that since the early 1990s the BJP vote share drop-off in assembly elections relative the the most recent LS election on the whole is worse than INC or other regional rivals.  So the BJP want to nationalize the assembly elections at a time that the BJP clearly have an edge at the national level.

In terms of execution this would require a constitutional change and I doubt it will be easy to do and most likely will not take place.

This is the first formal step towards dictatorship. And as usual the opposition doesn't/can't care.

To demonstrate the gravity of the situation that everyone seems to be ignoring: This is akin to if the Republicans were to eliminate midterms and off-year elections altogether.

It is more like BJP wanting the same domination INC had in the 1951-1967 period where all elections are held at the same time and the only INC had the resources to fight all of them at the same time which in turn led to INC domination of all polls in all states which reinforced the resource disparity.  I doubt this will work out although I think the BJP plan to achieve the same result  by smashing the opposition in all states where it has the strength and co-opting key regional parties where it needs to (JD(U) in Bihar, DMK in TN, YSRCP in AP and BJD in Odisha).  In Kerela BJP mostly likely smell blood and thinks it can completely push out Left Front and take over the non-INC space.  This will not work given my narrative of Dravidian language states  tend to be anti-BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #759 on: June 25, 2019, 02:32:32 pm »

In UP BSP has broken up its alliance with SP claiming that SP failed to transfer its core vote to BSP in the LS elections (its is actually the other way around where it seems SP was mostly able to transfer its Yadav-Muslim vote to BSP where BSP did not transfer efficiently its Dalit vote to SP with non-Jatav Dalit vote completely going over to BJP.)  I think deep down Mayawati knows the truth but she needed a face saving way of breaking off and try to retrieve her Dalit vote base by herself.  Mayawati is also appointing relatives to key BSP posts fearing a BSP coup against her leadership given how badly she failed to hold on the BSP Dalit vote base.  It seems Mayawati want to go after the SP Muslim vote which I doubt will succeed.  I suspect BSP might go into terminal decline.

Frankly the UP BJP government is not that popular and a similar SP-BSP alliance in 2022 assembly election has every prospect of winning.  If SP BSP are split then the only way the BJP can be challenged in 2022 would be some sort of SP-INC alliance where INC starts to take over some of its old Dalit vote from BSP in the meantime while SP keeps its Yadav-Muslim vote base.  I think  SP-INC will not win in 2022 but could keep it close.
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jaichind
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« Reply #760 on: June 26, 2019, 10:26:17 am »

In WB it seems AITC's leader and CM Mamata Banerjee, under siege from surging BJP,  finally came out with the idea of a AITC-INC-Left Front Grand Alliance to beat back BJP in the next assembly election.  It was only in the early 2000s AITC was calling for a AITC-INC-BJP Grand Alliance to defeat the invincible Left Front.  Given the high and growing Muslim population the BJP can easily tag this possible Grand Alliance as the Muslim party and shift more Hindu votes toward BJP.  Between AITC INC and Left Front, one of them has to be the party that does not appeal to Muslims and focus on Hindus to avoid BJP cornering the Hindu vote.   But doing so and giving up the Muslim vote leads to short term electoral losses so none of the 3 are willing to do it.  I think such an alliance actually increases BJP chances of winning in WB in 2021.
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jaichind
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« Reply #761 on: June 26, 2019, 11:38:33 am »

I saw a news today which I found funny if you dig into the history.

The story is a Kerala former INC leader AP Abdullakutty joined BJP today and also said that  "Modi is new messiah of Muslims"

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-modi-is-new-messiah-of-muslims-ousted-congress-leader-ap-abdullakutty-before-joining-bjp-1556390-2019-06-26


It seems that AP Abdullakutty was expelled from INC earlier this month for praising Modi.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/abdullakutty-expelled-from-congress/article27413652.ece

But if look into AP Abdullakutty's past it turns out he was with CPM for decades before joining INC in 2009.  It turned out that in 2009 AP Abdullakutty was expelled from CPM for praising then BJP Gujarat CM Modi and then joined INC.

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/cpm-suspends-mp-abdullakutty-for-praising-modi-306475.html

What is funny about this sequence of events is that if praising Modi is so bad that he has to be expelled from INC in June 2019, why did INC take the same  AP Abdullakutty into their party in 2009 after he was expelled from CPM for praising Modi.

It just seems that  AP Abdullakutty was in the wrong party for decades.  He is clearly a fan of Modi and should have just joined BJP decades ago.  Part of the reason for not doing so, of course, is that BJP had no prospect of winning any seats in Kerala and now they do  AP Abdullakutty is the first person to sign up.
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jaichind
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« Reply #762 on: June 28, 2019, 09:57:58 am »

It seems Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Haryana assembly elections will be held in October 2019.  Most likely J&K will also be held the same time although it is possible that it gets delayed for security concerns.
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jaichind
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« Reply #763 on: July 03, 2019, 11:14:21 am »

Looks like Rahul Gandhi has quit for real.  Front-runners for INC leader would be

Motilal Vora: Former MP CM (in 1989 only) but seen as close to Sonia Gandhi
Sushil Kumar Shinde: Former CM of Maharashtra (2003-2004) and seen as a Gandhi clan loyalist
Mallikarjun Kharge: Key INC leader of Karnataka and was floor leader of INC in LS in 2014-2019
Ghulam Nabi Azad: Former CM of J&K and of course is Muslim (all CM of J&K are Muslim)

Main problem with this list is all of them are close to the Gandhi clan with some closer than others and all of them are pretty old.  Since INC is in poor shape anyway they should really take a risk with someone with a less political experience
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xelas81
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« Reply #764 on: July 03, 2019, 11:49:24 am »

Looks like Rahul Gandhi has quit for real.  Front-runners for INC leader would be

Motilal Vora: Former MP CM (in 1989 only) but seen as close to Sonia Gandhi
Sushil Kumar Shinde: Former CM of Maharashtra (2003-2004) and seen as a Gandhi clan loyalist
Mallikarjun Kharge: Key INC leader of Karnataka and was floor leader of INC in LS in 2014-2019
Ghulam Nabi Azad: Former CM of J&K and of course is Muslim (all CM of J&K are Muslim)

Main problem with this list is all of them are close to the Gandhi clan with some closer than others and all of them are pretty old.  Since INC is in poor shape anyway they should really take a risk with someone with a less political experience

Why is Priyanka Gandhi not considered?
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jaichind
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« Reply #765 on: July 04, 2019, 08:25:36 am »

Looks like Rahul Gandhi has quit for real.  Front-runners for INC leader would be

Motilal Vora: Former MP CM (in 1989 only) but seen as close to Sonia Gandhi
Sushil Kumar Shinde: Former CM of Maharashtra (2003-2004) and seen as a Gandhi clan loyalist
Mallikarjun Kharge: Key INC leader of Karnataka and was floor leader of INC in LS in 2014-2019
Ghulam Nabi Azad: Former CM of J&K and of course is Muslim (all CM of J&K are Muslim)

Main problem with this list is all of them are close to the Gandhi clan with some closer than others and all of them are pretty old.  Since INC is in poor shape anyway they should really take a risk with someone with a less political experience

Why is Priyanka Gandhi not considered?

She did a pretty bad job with UP in the LS election and the optics will not be good to continue to add the the dynasty narrative.  If Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi want to stay relevent in INC politics they should focus on helping INC do well in assembly elections next few years and them from there get put back in charge of INC officially again.  Or else they should be completely out.  The worse is they are still in charge but others are responsible and do not have a free hand.  One way or another the road ahead for INC will be tough the next couple of years to figure out what is the right role for the Gandhi clan.
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jaichind
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« Reply #766 on: July 06, 2019, 01:00:34 pm »

Looks like terminal crisis for JD(S)-INC government in Karnataka.  2 INC MLAs quit earlier this week and now 11 more MLAs (8 INC and 3 INC(S)) have quit.  This puts the JD(S)-INC government majority at 1 and is likely to fall very soon. What all these MLAs want are ministries for which there are in limited supply.  BJP is likely behind some of them but at this stage they are more likely to be playing a game of blackmail than any prodding or bribing from BJP.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/multimedia/politics/karnataka-crisis-here-are-the-congress-and-jds-mlas-who-resigned/articleshow/70106407.cms
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jaichind
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« Reply #767 on: July 08, 2019, 06:39:08 pm »

More members of the JD(S)-INC government quit.  BJP now has the numbers to unseat the JD(S)-INC government.  All members of the JD(S)-INC resign in an attempt to give JD(S) CM HD Kumaraswamy a free hand to restructure the government in an attempt to save it

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-govt-political-crisis-congress-jds-bjp-1564960-2019-07-09
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jaichind
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« Reply #768 on: July 11, 2019, 10:41:51 am »

In Goa it seems BJP has broken the INC legislative party.  10 out of 15 INC MLAs have defected to BJP. Since this number is 2/3 or greater they are exempted from the anti-defection law.  BJP has a very narrow and tenuous majority in Goa so it seems they went all out to buy a solid majority.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/goa-congress-mlas-meet-jp-nadda-updates-1566887-2019-07-11
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jaichind
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« Reply #769 on: July 12, 2019, 02:09:54 pm »

In Karnataka it seems JD(S) CM Kumaraswamy will proactively call for vote of confidence.  This move when he clearly does not have the numbers seems to have BJP worried that their own ranks might defect or some of the INC and JD(S) rebels have defected back.   

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/karnataka-political-crisis-live-updates-july-11-2019/article28396367.ece
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jaichind
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« Reply #770 on: July 15, 2019, 06:05:06 am »

Karnataka vote of confidence will be Thursday 7/18.  JD(S)-INC and BJP are working frantically to get the 15 INC and JD(S) rebels to vote their way.  Of course if they go against their party's whip they will be removed as MLA.  BJP is trying to get them to do so and then run as BJP candidate in by-elections for their seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #771 on: July 19, 2019, 03:59:40 pm »

JD(S)-INC government in Karnataka  keeps on pushing the vote of confidence.  It is clear they do not have the numbers are and trying delay to try to gain time to lure back the INC and JD(S) rebels.  The vote is now schedule for Monday.  If they do not pull some rabbits out of the hat they will be defeated Monday and we are destined for mid-term elections or a BJP government. 
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