2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #775 on: August 05, 2019, 05:06:12 AM »

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-amit-shah-moves-bill-in-rajya-sabha-j-2-uts-created/335576

Article 370 which was the basis of the accession of Kashmir into India in 1947 is scrapped.  What is proposed is that J&K is splint into two Union territories: J&K which will have an elected assembly like Delhi and Ladakh which will not have an elected assembly like Chandigarh.

Overall while I think this is a key plank of BJS/BJP for decades this timing seems to imply that this is a defensive move by India.  The recent cryptic statement by Trump about mediating between India and Pakistan over Kashmir seems to imply a emerging USA-Pakistan deal.  Trump wants out of Afghanistan which eats out $45 billion a year at least.  Trump seems to want to pay Pakistan to take the Afghanistan management job over at a discount with Trump being able to claim victory and go home.  The Pakistan condition for such a deal is progress on Kashmir issue ergo Trump's cryptic statement.  This dynamic raises the specter of a USA-Pakistan-PRC bloc to hand over Afghanistan  management to Pakistan (with outside support by PRC) for a USA cash payment and putting pressure on India to come to terms with Pakistan over the Kashmir issue.  This move is a preemptive strike by India to booby trap the situation so Pakistan cannot have its way.

As for dynamics within Kashmir this could be yet another radicalization just like the flawed and perhaps rigged 1987 assembly election was and push up the level of support for the separatists as internal conflict will be quite protracted for years and perhaps decades to come.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #776 on: August 05, 2019, 05:14:41 AM »

So far most BJP allies and proto-allies are for this: AIADMK, YSRCP, BJD are for this move.  BJP ally JD(U) opposes.  INC of course will oppose.  SP and BSP are for.  The dynamics are clear.  Parties that will need the Muslim vote to win are going to oppose.  YSRCP and BJD has some Muslim support in AP and Odisha respectively but both seems to have calculated that they could not oppose this and lose the Hindu vote.  JD(U) has non-sectarian appeal for Hindus in Bihar but does need the Muslim vote if it is to have some leverage with the BJP.  SP and BSP being for seems to indicate that both parties learned lessons from the 2014 2017 and 2019 debacles and will focus on the Hindu votes in the future.  INC seems still focused on regaining or not losing the Muslim votes to various regional rivals so it is coming out against.
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jaichind
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« Reply #777 on: August 05, 2019, 05:35:47 AM »

INR falls around 1.3% as a result of this announcement.
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jaichind
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« Reply #778 on: August 05, 2019, 05:38:58 AM »

I am not clear why BJP want to crave Ladakh out of J&K because that removes some possibility pro-BJP votes out of J&K and make a BJP victory in a future J&K even less likely.  I assume the calculation the BJP is making is that this move will de-legitimize JKN and PDP so much that the Kashmir vote will be split many ways with many separatists also in the fray with ultra-low turnout and perhaps BJP could even win a few seats in Kashmir while the BJP sweeps Jammu including the Muslim majority areas using the same dynamic.
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jaichind
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« Reply #779 on: August 05, 2019, 01:48:50 PM »

The J&K move seems like a masterstroke by Modi-Shah.  INC came out against it but there are significant forces within INC for it which splits INC down the middle.  Factions of INC that are focused on the Hindu vote are for while factions that are more dependent on Muslim votes are against.  This move will accelerate defections from INC to BJP and ensure BJP domination of the political scene for the next couple election cycles. Even AAP had to support this lest it loses its Hindu vote in Delhi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #780 on: August 09, 2019, 05:05:22 AM »

With almost all the votes counted in Vellore LS election DMK marginally beats out AIADMK.  Vellore  LS election was delayed due to large amounts of cash found in warehouses controlled by the DMK.  The result is

DMK       47.33%
AIADMK  46.49%
NTK          2.62%

With this the final seat count in TN is DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-MDMK-KMDK-IJK bloc 38 and AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK-PT-TMC-PNK bloc 1.
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jaichind
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« Reply #781 on: August 09, 2019, 04:42:17 PM »

So far it is clear that the BJP is winning the Article 370 Kashmir issue.  The reason is simple, this move is having the effect of breaking INC.   During the days when INC was the dominate ruling party and had an incentive to extend the power of the center, INC also worked to chisel away the Article 370 autonomy rights for Kashmir anyway.  So INC of the 1950s to 1990s did not really believe in Article 370 for Kashmir.  Now INC is in the opposition it is trapped between its role of being the main opposition party but also the role as former dominate ruling party.  This is splitting INC down the middle  and aid in BJP just picking off more parts of INC that are looking to defect.

In Maharashtra the level of defections from INC and especially NCP to BJP has gotten so high that BJP has closed the door on defections.  So these potential defectors in INC and NCP now are going to SHS.  In the end these defections will add less to the BJP-SHS victory than one would expect but it is clear that they have the edge over the  weakened INC-NCP bloc.  The Kashmir issue has mostly ensured a victory, perhaps landslide victory, for the BJP in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra.

The Kashmir move also solidifies the BJP projection of being the Indo-Aryan Hindu party.  While this projection leaves out Muslim areas like Kashmir and deep South Dravidian states like TN and Kerala it is enough to set up the BJP as a dominate ruling party for a few election cycles and gives it the leverage to co-op these area outside its direct control.     
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jaichind
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« Reply #782 on: August 10, 2019, 12:30:32 PM »

INC working group finally accepts Rahul Gandhi's resignation and in his place elects Sonia Gandhi as INC Prez.   Not sure if she will accept but she might have no choice unless she is ready to see INC just start falling apart.
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« Reply #783 on: August 10, 2019, 02:39:14 PM »

INC working group finally accepts Rahul Gandhi's resignation and in his place elects Sonia Gandhi as INC Prez.   Not sure if she will accept but she might have no choice unless she is ready to see INC just start falling apart.

The Gandhi family are the reason they are falling apart though
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jaichind
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« Reply #784 on: August 11, 2019, 07:59:01 AM »

The crisis of INC is really that all INC state units are so faction ridden that only with someone from Gandhi clan at the helm could arbitrate between these factions.  Recently the BJP got a large chunk of INC MLAs to defect over in Goa to give BJP a majority government.  The evolution of the Goa assembly tells the story of INC factions

In 2017 assembly elections the results were

INC  17
NCP   1
GFP   3 (tactical alliance with INC)
IND   1  (INC backed)  

BJP  13
MGP  3 (BJP ally pre-2017 election that broke with BJP for the election)
IND   1 (BJP backed)

INC   1 (true independent)

INC should have been able to form the government with GFP but it was too slow to work out a deal with GFP which backed a BJP government led by Manohar Parrikar as the BJP roped in all 3 independents and MGP.  So the assembly was

Government (22)
BJP   13
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (18)
INC  17
NCP   1  

Of course this arrangement is very unstable for BJP which worked to add to its number.  Within a couple of months of forming the government the BJP got one of the INC MLAs to defect to BJP which triggered a by-election which the INC rebel MLA (himself a son of a former INC CM of Goa) won as BJP candidate.  So the assembly became

Government (23)
BJP   14
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (17)
INC  16
NCP   1  

Then the BJP got 2 more INC MLAs to defect to BJP and run in by-elections as the BJP candidate.  But both lost so the assembly composition by party did not change.

Then 2 of BJP's MLAs passed away one being BJP CM Manohar Parrikar.  This was a major crisis for BJP since Manohar Parrikar a good reason why GFP and MGP backed the BJP government was their support of Manohar Parrikar.

In March 2019 BJP's Pramod Sawant was sworn in as CM and won a very narrow vote of confidence.  And that was only done by making the leader of MGP and GFP as DCM created a fairly unstable government for BJP.

Government (21)
BJP   12
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (17)
INC  16
NCP   1  

But within a week of this government being formed BJP got 2 MGP MLAs to join BJP and dropped the remaining MGP leader and DCM from the cabinet.  As a result of the death of 2 BJP MLA and 2 MGP MLA defections which required by-elections there was 4 by-elections.  BJP won 3 of them and INC 1.  INC actually won BJP CM Manohar Parrikar's old seat.  So the Goa composition became

Government (22)
BJP   15
GFP    3
MGP   1
IND    3

Opposition (18)
INC  17
NCP   1  

Then in a coup in July 10 INC MLAs defected to BJP including 2 INC factions as well as the INC MLA that was just elected in the by-election winning BJP CM Manohar Parrikar's old seat.  The number of these INC defectors included a lot of Catholics MLAs which historically has been the most hostile to BJP.  But given the BJP government was becoming more secure they had to jump ship before other INC MLAs got there first and the BJP would be no longer interested in paying for defections.

To get to the punch line, the reason why the BJP won over INC last the last 2 years because BJP has been on the offense to win over defectors as well as using the lure of office to trade power for numbers to form a government.  The reason the INC could not act as fast as BJP is INC itself was divided into 4-5 factions where there are as many as 5 CM aspirants.  So anytime the INC high command would start to act to lure defectors and form alliances to form a government these INC factions would jump into the fray to bloc their rival INC faction leaders from getting the CM seats.  As a result a 2017 assembly result which favored the INC has turned into a majority BJP government.

So the idea behind getting the Gandhi clan to be the head of INC is that without such a setup then in every state the INC will devolve into the INC of Goa.
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jaichind
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« Reply #785 on: August 15, 2019, 12:07:40 PM »

India Today Mood of the Nation poll done BEFORE the J&K article 370 revocation

Best PM ever has Modi beating Indira Gandhi 37-14 which is a large surge for Modi.  The last peak for Modi was right after Demonetization which was a great political success even as it was a policy disaster 



Impression of economic situation continues to decline as better/worse ration declines to 49/28



INC in terminal decline? Yes 50% No 37%
Who best to lead INC:  Priyanka Gandhi 15%, Rahul Gandhi 11%, Sonia Gandhi 7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #786 on: August 15, 2019, 12:16:03 PM »

The effectiveness of Modi to keep on nationalizing politics seems to indicate that it is likely there will be  a mass extinction  event for many regional parties.  INC will survive but will only be relevant in parts of the country.  The main problem will be the various regional parties which all got hit in 2019 LS elections.  Most of these regional parties were built to counter INC(INLD, TDP, JD(S), JD(U), SP, BSP, RLD etc etc)  (AITC was built to counter Left Front.)  With INC on the decline there is nothing in regional parties DNA to be able to deal with a surging BJP.  Many of them will die out to make way for future anti-BJP regional parties built to counter BJP.  Some of these new regional parties will displace INC and some will become allies of INC to counter BJP or even both.   But during this transition the BJP will remain the one and only dominate national party.

One example is in Karnataka with by-elections coming up to determine control of the Karnataka assembly there are signs that INC is running out of money to fight these elections which BJP continues to receive massive funding.  The funding gap between BJP and INC now seems to be on the order of 10 to 1.  In Sikkim a large number of old BJP ally and former ruling party SDF MLA just defected to BJP which clears the way for BJP to grow in Sikkim just like Arunchal Pradesh a few years ago.  This is facilitated by the BJP controlled the federal subsidies for Sikkim.
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jaichind
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« Reply #787 on: August 16, 2019, 04:54:07 AM »

Given escalation with Pakistan over Kashmir India defense minister Rajnath Singh says that India will reconsider the "no first use" of nuclear weapons.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-may-change-rajnath-singh-1581403-2019-08-16
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Simfan34
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« Reply #788 on: August 25, 2019, 01:07:35 AM »

I am not well-versed at all when it comes to Indian politics, but it does seems as if Rahul Gandhi, at the very least, has at last found his political groove. It is interesting talking to some of my Indian classmates, many of them quite seriously seem to believe the NDA won't be able to form a government at all. One, from Lucknow, said that Yogi Adityanath's unpopularity would drag down the BJP in UP, which does appear to be what's happening.

lol
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jaichind
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« Reply #789 on: September 09, 2019, 09:42:45 AM »

The Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra  assembly elections will most likely take place in late Oct or early Nov.  So far it seems the BJP has fairly strong momentum in all 3 states to beat back anti-incumbency.

In Haryana there seems for a while that former INC CM and Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda would split from INC but he seems to have been humored for now.  BSP which broke its alliance with INLD for the LS elections formed an alliance with INLD splinter JJP which had an alliance with AAP for the LS elections seems to have broken that alliance too.  There are talk of a INC-BSP alliance but I suspect that will end up being nothing.  I with the anti-BJP opposition split the INC is wise to focus on the Jat vote so it becomes the main Opposition to BJP and try to collect anti-BJP tactical votes even as BJP seems poised for a landslide victory.

In  Jharkhand INC-JMM-JVM work to try to continue their LS alliance.  Not clear it will hold. BJP-AJSU seems to be in a strong position to win re-election even though I think the scale of the BJP victory will not be as large as many in the BJP would expect.

In Maharashtra  it seems both INC and NCP are falling apart with large scale defections from INC but especially NCP to BJP and sometimes SHS.  At least this means that INC-NCP alliance will be worked out given how weak both parties have become. On paper the BJP-SHS alliance will share the seats 50/50.  But for the BJP that will not work.  Given the large number of INC and NCP kingpins plus all the BJP incumbent MLAs to accommodate the BJP will have to contest at least significant majority of the 288 seats.  SHS will not accept this but it might not have no choice since even a BJP vs INC-NCP vs SHS battle could result in a BJP plurality it not majority with SHS being cut out of power and BJP will poach whatever SHS MLAs that SHS manages to win.  I think in the end BJP-SHS alliance will be formed with SHS backing down and accepting a junior role and a BJP CM.     
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jaichind
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« Reply #790 on: September 09, 2019, 09:52:17 AM »

INC is still rudderless after Sonia Gandhi took over again as interim President as it is not able to recapture the narrative of INC as the nature party of Indian nationalism and unity.  For upcoming assembly elections INC can only hope to come in strong second  place to BJP and hope that is good enough for it not to fall apart so it can try a long term revival plan.   

It seems in MP where the INC government holds a slim majority INC leader Jyotiraditya Scindia is close to raising the standard of revolt given his hostility with INC CM Kamal Nath.  It is possible that Jyotiraditya Scindia might defect to BJP.  Former BJP CM of  Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje is his aunt and his grandmother Vijaya Raje Scindia was a key leader in pro-BJP BJS and brought the Scindia royal family into the BJS/BJP.  If  Jyotiraditya Scindia and his followers do defect to BJP then just like Karnataka the INC government in MP will fall and be replace by a BJP CM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #791 on: September 10, 2019, 01:31:58 PM »

Ex-SHS Maharashtra CM Narayan Rane has joined BJP.  Narayan Rane has pretty much joined or allied with all 4 main Maharashtra parties.   


He started with SHS and was tapped by SHS founder and leader Bal Thackeray to take over as SHS CM in 1999 as the SHS-BJP government face re-election in 1999.  SHS-BJP was defeated by INC and NCP who fought separately in 1999 so Narayan Rane  had to resigned as CM after the 1999 assembly elections.  After the 1999 elections it was clear that Bal Thackeray grooming his son Uddhav Thackeray to become the leader of SHS.  Narayan Rane was hostile to Uddhav Thackeray and defected to INC with his faction within SHS with a promise that INC will eventually make him CM again.  It was a promise that INC failed to honer and after several threats to quit INC,  Narayan Rane finally left INC in 2017.  He actually wanted to join BJP but BJP did not due to objections from SHS.  So Narayan Rane formed MSP and allied with BJP and was elected to the Rajya Sabha with BJP support which did lead to tensions between BJP and SHS.  In early 2019 Narayan Rane broke with BJP and was going to ally with NCP but his attempt to join UPA was voted by INC.  In the end MSP ran separately in the 2019 LS elections. 

Now that the BJP has a strong hand relative to the SHS after a large number of INC and NCP defectors in the aftermath of the LS election the BJP decide to take in Narayan Rane into BJP which will only inflame BJP-SHS relations.  But it seems BJP does not care and want to show SHS who is boss.
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jaichind
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« Reply #792 on: September 11, 2019, 07:51:41 AM »

It seems elections for Haryana and Maharashtra will be in Oct while elections for Jharkhand will be in Nov which will be held in phases to deal with Maoist Naxalite guerillas.
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jaichind
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« Reply #793 on: September 11, 2019, 09:25:47 PM »

Some historical info of Maharashtra elections.  


This state has been dominated by the INC until the 1977 LS elections.  2 key people that was part of making Maharashtra competitive are Sharad Pawar who is now the leader of INC splinter NCP
 
and Bal Thackeray who is the founder of SHS


In the 1970s Sharad Pawar was a rising superstar in the INC and was being groomed by INC titan CM during the early 1960s Yashwantrao Chavan as a future leader of INC.  Bal Thackeray  was a cartoonist that started a Maratha nativist  and populist movement in the 1960s and was mostly active in Bombey city politics and mostly fought against both INC and CPI/CPM.

In 1977 all the non-INC opposition national parties INC(O) BJS (proto-BJP) SSP PSP and BKD merged into JNP to take on INC and a grand coalition of JNP and other local opposition parties narrowly defeated INC in the LS elections mainly due to excesses of Indira Gandhi 1975-1977 emergency.


1977 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        48                 20             47.85% (RPI was part of INC+)
 
CPI            4                   0               0.67%

JNP+        48                28              47.90% (PWPI CPM RPI(K) were part of JNP+)

AIFB          2                   0               1.08%

The INC was defeated at the national level but INC's strength in Maharashtra avoided it being completely crushed like in other parts of Northern India and mostly fought JNP+ to a draw.  The fall of INC and Indira Gandhi's attempt to retain control of INC led to the pro-Indira Gandhi INC(I) being formed and running separately from INC in the 1978 Maharashtra  assembly elections  leading to a 3 way battle between INC, INC(I) and JNP.   Sharad Pawar and his mentor Yashwantrao Chavan were anti-Indira Gandhi and were part of INC.


1978 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)+     245               79              23.39% (AIFB was part of INC(I)+)

INC(I) rebel                     6                2.04%

INC+        272               70              26.28% (MUL was part of INC)

INC rebel                        1                0.61%
 
RPI            25                 2                1.06% (tactical alliance with INC+)

CPI            48                 1                1.48%

JNP+       263              114              32.28% (CPM RPI(K) were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        2                0.50%

PWPI        88                13                5.54% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

SHS         35                  0                 1.82%

INC and INC(I) formed a post-election alliance to kept JNP out.  This only lasted a few month until Sharad Pawar led his own anti-Indira Gandhi faction of INC out of INC and became CM with support of JNP.  This will be the first of 3 times Sharad Pawar will become CM of Maharashtra.
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jaichind
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« Reply #794 on: September 12, 2019, 05:39:04 AM »

By 1979 the JNP has split into JNP and JNP(S) and its government at the federal fell leading to the 1980 LS election.  In the meantime INC(I) split with an anti-Indira Gandhi faction merged with INC and  Sharad Pawar's faction to form INC(U) with Sharad Pawar as its leader in Maharashtra.    The disgust with the JNP failed 1977-1979 government lead to an INC(I) victory.

1980 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)       48                 39               53.30%

INC(I) rebel                     0                 0.60%

RPI           23                  0                 1.74%

INC(U)+    35                  1               16.21% (PWPI CPM CPI were part of INC(U)+)

JNP(S)      17                  0                 1.06% (tactical alliance with INC(U)+)

JNP+        39                  8                22.11% (RPI(K) was part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        0                  0.73%

SHS          2                   0                   0.70%

After the INC(I) landslide in Maharashtra and nationally Indira Gandhi returned as PM as BJP which is the successor party of the old BJS split out from JNP.  In Maharashtra Sharad Pawar's INC(U) government fell and new assembly election were called leading to another INC(I) landslide.


1980 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)+     288             187              44.95%

INC(I) rebel                    2                 1.09%

INC(U)+    205              52               22.16%

INC(U) rebel                   2                 0.44%

JNP+        126                9                 9.83% (CPM was part of JNP+)

CPI            17                 2                1.31% (tactical alliance with JNP+)
 
PWPI         41                 9                 4.14% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

RPI(K)       42                 1                 1.36% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

BJP+       147               14                 9.53% (backed by SHS)

RPI           38                 0                 0.94%

Due to the JNP-BJP split  Sharad Pawar 's INC(U) emerges as the main opposition to the INC(I).  SHS shifts toward Hindu nationalism in addition to the  Maratha nativist appeal and helps the BJP to establish itself as a significant opposition party in Maharashtra.
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jaichind
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« Reply #795 on: September 12, 2019, 10:23:04 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2019, 10:10:22 PM by jaichind »

After INC(I) (now just called INC) returned to power in Maharashtra the state saw a series of short lived INC CMs all of whom were seen as Indira Gandhi sycophants.  The INC was clearly losing ground in the state until Indira Gandhi assassination which propelled the INC to a landslide victory nationwide in 1984.  In Maharashtra INC won by a large margin as well but not as large as 1980 which goes to show the relative decline of INC despite de facto SHS support to INC in 1984 with the INC running on the nationalist plank.  JNP run in an alliance with INC(U) (now called ICS) and was able to save a few seats as the BJP split the anti-INC vote.


1984 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                43               51.42%

INC rebel                        0                1.38%

ICS+         48                  5              29.73% (JNP PWPI CPM CPI RPI(K) BRP were part of ICS+)

BJP+         22                  0              10.55%


After the INC 1984 LS landslide came the 1985 Maharashtra  assembly elections.  To counter the INC Sharad Pawar worked to get BJP to join the anti-INC alliance and was able to hold the INC to a smaller victory aided by a large number of INC rebels although JNP and ICS had its own share of rebels that were not happy about not being nominated as part of the grand anti-INC alliance.  SHS who also objected to working with JNP ran separately and also cut into the anti-INC vote.


1985 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         288             162              43.57%

INC rebel                        9                4.85%

ICS+         286             104              35.98% (JNP BJP PWPI were part of ICS+)

ICS rebel                        1                 0.91%
JNP rebel                        6                 1.25%

SHS           20                 1                 1.59%

CPI+          65                5                 2.61% (CPM RPI(K) were part of CPI+)

RPI+          57                0                 1.25%
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jaichind
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« Reply #796 on: September 12, 2019, 12:29:51 PM »

After the INC victory in 1985 the trend in national politics was moving toward Hindu nationalism and with it the rise of the BJP.  In Maharashtra this came in the form of the rapid rise of SHS as a political force spreading beyond its Bombay core into the rest of Maharashtra as an ally of BJP. 

In 1987 claiming that he need to stop the rise of  SHS Sharad Pawar took most of ICS (leaving a small rump behind) and merged back into the INC.  Of course  Sharad Pawar desire for power clearly played a role.  This move proved to be a boom for SHS-BJP as they quickly moved in to capture the opposition space in Maharashtra elbowing out JNP.  Given the rise of SHS-BJP INC high command made  Sharad Pawar CM to to try to use his popularity among Marathas to try to counter SHS-BJP despite a large number of anti- Sharad Pawar factions within INC.  In the 1989 LS elections  Sharad Pawar led INC to a small victory over BJP-SHS and JD (JNP and LKD merged to form JD) even as INC was defeated across North India


1989 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           48                28               45.36%

INC rebel                        0                 0.74%

JD+           44                 6               19.31% (BRP PWPI CPI CPM ICS were part of JD+)

JD rebel                          0                 1.16%

BJP+         40                14               28.27% (SHS was part of BJP+)

RPI(K)         8                  0                0.75%

BSP          30                  0                 0.66%


The SHS-BJP alliance (for LS elections BJP as the national party was the leader of the alliance but in state elections SHS is the senior partner) has emerged as the main opposition to INC.   In the 1990 Maharashtra assembly elections one again Sharad Pawar led INC to victory despite widespread INC rebellion but the opposition space continues to consolidate around SHS-BJP


1990 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         284             143              38.95%

INC rebel                        8                4.46%
ex-ICS                            1                0.71% (INC rebel with ICS background)

RPI            21                 0                0.70% (tactical alliance with INC+)

JD+          215              24               12.86%

CPM+         29                5                 1.61% (tactical alliance with JD+)

PWPI          40                8                 2.42% (tactical alliance with JD+)

BRP           43                0                  1.14%

ICS+         72                 1                 1.10% (rump ICS)

SHS+       288              94               26.83% (BJP was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                      0                  0.38%
BJP rebel                       1                  0.70%

RPI(K)       18                1                  0.70%

MUL            9                1                   0.51%

Sharad Pawar helped INC win re-election and continued as CM with SHS-BJP being the main opposition bloc.  In retrospect Sharad Pawar as leader of the opposition merging his ICS into INC proved the critical moment for the rise of SHS-BJP into contention in Maharashtra  since they were able to occupy the opposition space left by Sharad Pawar. It could be that the rise of SHS-BJP would have taken place even without that even but Sharad Pawar's move certainly sped up that process.
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jaichind
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« Reply #797 on: September 13, 2019, 05:51:21 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2019, 10:53:30 AM by jaichind »

The JD government fell in 1991 after JD(S) split from JD leading to the 1991 LS elections.  It seems that the BJP was destined to surge in 1991 but the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi drove a pro-INC sympathy wave giving the a near majority overall.  In Maharashtra one again Sharad Pawar as CM led INC to victory riding the sympathy wave for INC even as SHS-BJP consolidate their position as the main opposition in the state.


1991 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           48                38               48.40%

JD+          48                  1               17.22%(BRP PWPI CPM CPI RPI(K) were part of JD+)

JD(S)        23                  0                0.71%

BJP+         48                 9               29.64% (SHS was part of BJP+)

BSP          30                 0                 0.48%

There was an expectation after the victory of INC that Sharad Pawar would be made INC PM.  Instead dark house candidate AP INC leader Narasimha Rao was called out of retirement to be PM due to objections by Sonia Gandhi to Sharad Pawar being made PM.  Instead Sharad Pawar was asked to become Minister of Defense under Narasimha Rao.  This planted the seeds of rebellion of the Sharad Pawar leading to the formation of NCP in 1999.

The badly handled Bombey communal riots of 1993 were a total disaster for INC in Maharashtra  and Sharad Pawar was called back to be INC CM again to lead INC into battle in 1995.  But due to bitterness over being skipped over in 1991 to be PM there were bitter battles within INC between pro-Sharad Pawar factions and anti-Sharad Pawar factions.  As a result SHS-BJP won the 1995 assembly elections on the back of massive INC rebellions


1995 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         284               81              31.22%

INC rebel                       17                7.21%
proto-NCP                      18                4.28% (INC rebels who later became NCP in 1999)

MVC             3                 1                0.12% (INC splinter)

JD+          186               11                6.17% (SAP was part of JD+)

PWPI          42                 6                2.05% (tactical alliance with JD+)

SP+           25                 3                1.05% (tactical alliance with JD+)

CPM           18                 3                1.00% (tactical alliance with JD+)

CPI            17                 0                0.32%

BBM+      130                 0                3.10%

SHS+       287             138              29.45% (BJP was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                       0                0.80%
BJP rebel                        7                1.59%

BSP         145                 0                1.49%

NVAS          2                  1                0.21%

STBP          6                  2                0.70%

The result was split verdict where the vote were very splintered.  In the end pro-Sharad Pawar INC rebels backed SHS-BJP to form a government under SHS CM Manohar Joshi.   The SHS tradition is that the leader (in this case SHS leader and founder Bal Thackeray) does not enter electoral politics so when SHS does come to power a party loyalist Manohar Joshi was put forward as CM.  Manohar Joshi is the first Maharashtra CM that does not have an INC background.

With a SHS CM installed the 1996 LS elections saw the defeat of INC and in Maharashtra with the SHS government in its honey period BJP-SHS swept the polls with INC still reeling from defeat in 1995 and the internal battles over pro- and ant- Sharad Pawar factions.


1996 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           48                15               34.78%

INC rebel                       0                  2.15%

JD+          45                 0                14.80% (RPI SP PWPI BBM CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)        17                 0                  0.80%

BJP+        48                33                40.58% (SHS was part of BJP+)

Despite the BJP-SHS victory in Maharashtra and JD+ stuck in a poor third, nationally 1996 LS elections led to a minority JD government with outside support of INC to keep BJP out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #798 on: September 13, 2019, 10:42:42 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2019, 03:04:40 PM by jaichind »

The JD minority government of 1996 fell by 1998 as INC pulled support leading to the 1998 LS elections.  Just like 1991 it seem the BJP was going to win in a landslide until Sonia Gandhi entered politics to campaign for INC.  While the BJP won overall a INC meltdown was avoided.   In Maharashtra , Sharad Pawar, seeing that the chaos at the national level could mean he could have another shot at being PM, reconciled with the anti-Sharad Pawar INC factions and by roping in parties like SP and RPI from the JD+ bloc and taking advantage of the Sonia Gandhi factor defeated the BJP-SHS bloc by eating into the JD+ bloc vote.


1998 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                37               50.40% (RPI and SP were part of INC+)

JD+           29                 1                  3.42% (PWPI CPM CPI were part of JD+)

BJP+         48                10               43.23% (SHS was part of BJP+)

The BJP government formed after the 1998 fell in 1999 after AIADMK pulled support.  JD split into an pro-NDA JD(U) and anti-NDA JD(S) with the Maharashtra wing of JD going with JD(S).  Sonia Gandhi made a bid to form government that failed leading to the 1999 LS elections.   Sonia Gandhi made a bid to become INC President which was a clear signal to  Sharad Pawar that Sonia Gandhi has plans to become PM herself which means that his chances of INC PM in the future was nil.  As a result  Sharad Pawar bolted from INC and formed NCP.  The 1999 LS elections were held at the same time as the 1999 Maharashtra assembly elections.   The SHS-BJP government was clearly running into anti-incumbency so SHS swapped in a new SHS CM Narayan Rane.  But that was to no avail.  BJP-SHS won the LS election in Maharashtra  due to the INC-NCP split but lost its majority in the assembly election due to high level of anti-incumbency against the SHS-BJP state government.


1999 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          48                11               33.25% (BBM RPI were part of INC+)

NCP+         46                  9               25.11% (JD(S) PWPI SP RPI(A) were part of NCP+)

BJP+          48                28               38.03% (SHS was part of BJP+)


1999 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         263               78              28.43% (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         5                1.88%

BBM+         35                 3                1.90% (tactical alliance with INC+)

NCP+        254               62              24.55% (SP STBP NVPP SJP were part of NCP+)

NCP rebel                        0                0.66%

JD(S)+       26                 2                1.56% (tactical alliance with NCP+)

PWPI          22                 5                1.49% (tactical alliance with NCP+)

SHS+       287              129              33.17% (BJP was part of SHS+)

BJP rebel                         1                0.49%

CPM           23                 2                 0.64%

BSP            83                 0                0.39%

GGP           16                  1                0.20%



Despite the animosity that  Sharad Pawar had for Sonia Gandhi in the end INC and NCP formed a post-election alliance to secure a INC CM ousting the SHS-BJP government and with it SHS CM Narayan Rane was out.  It is also clear that there is a bloc of around 3%-4% of the vote that are anti-INC and voted NCP+ in the assembly elections (most likely to vote against the incumbent SHS-BJP government)  but BJP+ in LS elections.  This bloc of votes should converge to SHS-BJP on the medium run given the post-election INC-NCP alliance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #799 on: September 15, 2019, 06:11:02 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2019, 03:06:06 PM by jaichind »

The NDA government formed after the 1999 LS election under Vajpayee was fairly popular so the BJP went for early elections by a few months in 2004.  The NDA was surprising defeated.  In Maharashtra there were some anti-incumbency setting in for the INC-NCP state government so that even with INC-NCP alliance they were fought to a draw by BJP-SHS.


2004 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                23               44.85% (NCP RPI(A) JRP JD(S) RPI were part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                 0.41%
 
BBM          16                  0                1.25%

PWPI          3                  0                 0.93%

SP            14                  0                 0.79%

CPM           3                  0                 0.72%

BJP+        48                25               42.72% (SHS was part of BJP+)

SHS rebel                      0                 0.55%

BSP         46                  0                 3.05%


The momentum of the surprising UPA victory at the national level propelled INC-NCP to a narrow victory in the  2004 Maharashtra assembly election despite significant INC and NCP rebellion.  Part of the reason for INC-NCP victory was that they brought in Sushilkumar Shinde as the INC CM with a Dalit background which was able to help INC hold on to its Dalit vote base.  What also helped INC-NCP was the growing tension within SHS between its last CM Narayan Rane and SHS leader Bal Thackeray who seems determined to promote his son Uddhav Thackeray as the next leader of SHS.


2004 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         286              142             40.67% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         6                3.02%
NCP rebel                        6                2.07%

RPI(A)        20                 1                0.49%

PWPI          43                 2                1.31%

BBM           83                 1                1.23%

SP              95                0                 1.13%

JD(S)        34                  0                0.58%

CPM           16                 3                0.62%

SHS+       287             118              34.99% (BJP STBP NVAS were part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                       3                1.31%
BJP rebel                        1                0.95%

ABHS        20                  1                0.17%

BSP         272                 0                4.00%

JSS+        21                  4                1.04%



After the INC-NCP victory Vilasrao Deshmukh who was the INC CM after the 1999 assembly elections was brought back as INC CM.
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