2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[FredLindq]

BJP and SHS has made a deal. BJP gets 25 and SHS 23 seats in Maharashtra. In 2014 it was BJP 24, SHS 20 and others 4.

In UPA NCP got 24 seats allocated to them.

[FredLindq]

What has happened with the Left front?! A total collapse. Losing support first to AITC in West Bengal and now to BJP?! A losing Tripura to BJP! Are voters realy moving straight from CPI/CPM to BJP?

[FredLindq]

I do not get the UP figures. They seem all the same IF there is and is not an SP+BSP alliance.

[FredLindq]

I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?

[FredLindq]

I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?

ECI has reports of every election (assembly as well).  This is the 2014 LS election one

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/2785-constituency-wise-detailed-result/


This is a link of a table of all reports of LS and assembly elections
https://eci.gov.in/statistical-report/statistical-reports/

I medan for the läst. C voter pill.

[FredLindq]

I think that you got Kerala wrong there. It should be INC 8, Left 4, BJP 1 and others 7 (+1). All these others can not be UDF since INC contests 16 seats and others UDF (IUML, KCM and RSP) four seats. So i think that it should be INC 8, IUML 2, KCM 1, RSP 1, CPIM 4 and independet CPIM/Left 3 and BJP 1.

[FredLindq]

I noticed that in Lakshadweep Lok Sabha constituency UPA has two candidates the current MP   Mohammed Faizal P. P. from NCP as well as one candidate from INC. BJP has one candidate och JD(U) one. I also noticed that NDA has only won here once (BJP in 2004). The candidate that one then contested the 2009 election as a candidate for NCP.

[FredLindq]

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      

[FredLindq]

My prognosis for the five largest states:
Uttar Pradesh 80 seats
BJP 40, AD(S) 1 Total NDA 41
SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1 Total Grand Alliance 35
INC 4

Maharashtra 48 seats
BJP 21, SS 14, Total NDA 35
INC 7, NCP 6, Total UPA 13

West Bengal 42 seats
AITC 31
BJP 10
INC 1

Bihar 40 seats
BJP 15, JD(U) 13, LJP 3, Total NDA 31
RJD 5, INC 2, RLSP 1, VIP 1, Total UPA 9

Tamil Nadu 39 seats
DMK 16, INC 5, VCK 2, CPI 2, CPI-M 1, Total UPA 26
AIADMK 10, PMK 2, BJP 1, Total NDA 13

[FredLindq]

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      

Looks pretty reasonable and would mostly line up with most CW projections out there. 

A technical point of order would be "NPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1" should not count as NDA but pro-NDA.  It really comes down to definition.    In Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Sikkim BJP ran its own separate candidate separate from NPP MNF and SDF so strictly speaking these parties do not have a pre-poll alliance with BJP even though it is clear they will back a BJP government.  Part of this is a ploy given the controversy over the new citizenship bill where the BJP running against these pro-BJP parties allows them to be able to pick up part of the anti-BJP anti-new citizenship bill vote. 

I put them as NDA since they are still members of North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and guverns with BJP in Meghalaya. I do not know how the BJP MLA in Mizoram votes. UDP has left NEDA but guverns with BJP and other NEDA parties such as NPP.

[FredLindq]

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      

I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 

Correction (Two seats in Teleanga was in the wrong column, was Other NDA should be in INC).

BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S) 1   50   
Total NDA   279   51,38%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   327   60,22%
INC   90   16,57%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   134   24,68%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   212   39,04%
Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   

[FredLindq]

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      

I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 

Correct! The indpendent is Naba Kumar Sarania  from Kokrajhar  in Assam. I do not Think that BPF can beat him.