2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

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How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?

Because the INC is basically totally controlled by the Gandhi Family.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Do you think there would be a possibility for a new liberal party to form in India and become a force in politics say over the next 5-10 years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the BJP loses in 2019 , Modi will have blown a historic opportunity and will be handing India off to a leader who would make Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau look competent and smart .

I wish Modi went down the Reagan/Thatcher path instead of the more populist right wing path . Now is Modi still better than Rahul , yes and it’s not even close but even if he wins he may have blown a historic opportunity.

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Do you think the BJP could get a majority by themselves again

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The Indian Armed Forces just conducted raids on alleged terror camps in Pakistan.
Unsurprisingly the opposition backed the government. For Indian internal politics this clearly
gives a boost to the Prime Minister who will now, at least for a brief period, be seen as a statesman in the public eye.
The question will now be how Pakistan responds. If they keep things to diplomatic complaining and dont escalate the situation further, Pakistan will be internationally seen as the sensible one and the Boost for Modi will largely subside as other Issues become more important.
However if Pakistan escalates militarily they keep the issue on the Agenda during the elections, and that is certainly what the BJP wants.

Pakistan is the one who started this, as they clearly committed an attack of war

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Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more

My parents support Congress because they hate Modi and they dislike Ganahi.

My parents do like Modi also and believe he is doing a good job too . It may be hard for people on this forum to believe but compared to the vast majority of my family I am not a Modi fan , they are far bigger supporters of Modi than either my parents or I am .

[OSR stands with Israel]

What News channel do you watch, because the vast majority of channels are broadcasted in Hindi not English.

I cant stand any of them but which one do you watch

[OSR stands with Israel]

Isn’t Gujarat the BJP’s version of Texas though

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How was 2014 looking at this point

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My dad believes the BJP needs to be in for at least 12-13 years to  change India and cement the changes for the long run, just like how the GOP needed 3 terms in 1980s to cement Neo-Liberalism and Thatcher needed to win 3 elections to cement in Thatcherism.


How many seats do you think they need to last 12-13 years(So up to 2027 or 2028)

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How was the election looking at this point in 2004

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How was the election looking at this point in 2004

In 2004 exit polls were allowed to be announce with each round.  In the early phases the exit poll projection had NDA around 270 (very close to majority) UPA 170.  In the later phases which would be about where we are now the exit polls showed an average roughly around 260 for NDA and UPA of around 180.   So the momentum was slowly shifting away from NDA.  In the end it was UPA 218 NDA 181.  It seems the exit polls did pickup these NDA losses but the swing away from the NDA was so dramatic from what the polling showed at the beginning of the campaign season (NDA at 300+) that all the pollsters hedged themselves and herded. 

So India 2004 was basically like UK 2017, just that the Tories lead at the beginning of the campaign was larger

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Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls anymore 


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out

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What were exit poll projections in 2004 and 2014

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As for this election being a national election or not really comes down the to if the BJP can get national acceptance on its national building vision versus that of the INC.

The INC vision of nation building us based on the USA model of unifying a nation around a set of rationalist principles that can superseded individual community identities that will continue to exist along side the rationalist consensus.   

The BJP vision of nation building uses Bismarck Germany and modern China as the model which centers around a common historical narrative that focus on a fusion of related and but disparate identities into one super-arching nationalist narrative.  A post-caste India where caste identities can be subsumed into a Hindu Indo-Aryan identity would be the BJP vision of building a functional superpower that can rival USA and PRC.

So in many ways if the BJP can get the Hindu Indo-Aryan population to think in the way they want them to think then the BJP is headed for a landslide victory that would serve the basis of a long term BJP domination of Indian politics and direction of the nation as a whole.   

I don’t think so , I look at it more that the INC wants to make India more like a Modern Day Europe while the BJP wants to make India more like the US . I don’t see Modi as really any more nationalist than say George W Bush was .

I mean the reason he seems more nationalist in India than Bush seemed here is because it seems out of the ordinary in India while it isn’t out of the ordinary here . I mean take Europe for example if a party their was even as nationalist as the Dem Party was here till around 2005 it would be considered too overtly nationalist and if it was as nationalist as the GOP was say even in 2004 and 2005 version it would be considered extreme far right  .


I think India should be more like the US than Europe

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What are some of the English Channels again to watch the results(We have Sling International even though we rarely use it)

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Does it look so far similar to 2014

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BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats

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Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?

Hopefully, as that might destroy the Gandhi dynasty for good

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So would this result lead to another party on the left rising and potentially causing Congress to go the way the Whig party went here

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Lmao the left on NDTV are blaming the loss on voters benign racist , voting on fears . Looks like they are taking cues from SJW here

[OSR stands with Israel]

INC keeps on talking about BJP media campaign as the cause of victory.  They are not confronting the main problem which is that in a national election they had nothing to counter Modi with.

Blaming the voters does nothing but set you up of losing after losing elections