2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

Correct.  I always felt that places like MP, Rajasthan, HP, Haryana, and Gujarat will be highly correlated with each other.  Now we now that they likely broke for BJP although I think the exit polls overestimate it.   It was always UP that was going to be different but it was not clear how with many different surveys on the ground giving very different projections on the ground.  Ergo my obsession with UP throughout the campaign.  That BJP is doing so well in places like Jharkand and Chhattisgarh is a big surprise to me.  It seems the tribals vote overlooked local issues to vote for a strong national security PM.  The Dalit vote did seem to shift away from BJP but was not enough to stop the BJP given the BJP strong performance with Upper Castes and OBCs.

It makes sense to focus on UP given the sheer amount of seats there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, Canada's NDP leader Jagmeet Singh also seems to be involved in various radical Khalistan  organizations but somehow no one called him out on it during the most recent Canada election.

No one wants to alienate critical Sikh swing voters in the 905, and there are few who'd be won over by such a line of argumentation. Anyone utilizing that line of attack would kiss their hopes of winning Brampton goodbye.