Place your bets 2 years out: who will still be a Senator on January 4, 2021?

[Peanut]

I included every Senator for whom a "vulnerable" argument could be made.

[Not Me, Us]

You don't consider Corey Gardner vulnerable?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

You don't consider Corey Gardner vulnerable?

Its because he is even lower than vulnerable probably.

[Not Me, Us]

You don't consider Corey Gardner vulnerable?

Its because he is even lower than vulnerable probably.

The same argument can be made for Jones, even more so.

[Politician]

You don't consider Corey Gardner vulnerable?

Haven't you heard? He's safe because he's an incumbent.

[Peanut]

You don't consider Corey Gardner vulnerable?

I knew I was forgetting someone! Let's just ignore him, since not a lot of people would say he'll still be a Senator.

[Sir Mohamed]

You don't consider Corey Gardner vulnerable?

I consider Gardner DOA unless the Dems completely blow it with a horrible challenger. Senate elections have become more nationalized than ever, and nothing suggests this won't be the case in '20 when we have an election for prez and a divisive figure as Trump is on the top of the ballot.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Gary Peters will lose narrowly to John James.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

All but Tillis and Jones. But I wouldn't be shocked by Cornyn retiring and being replaced by Crenshaw.

[😥]

Susan Collins (if she won't retire)
Joni Ernst
John Cornyn
David Perdue
Tina Smith
Gary Peters
Jeanne Shaheen
 
and Steve Daines (if Bullock won't run)

[JMT]

I think all will remain senators, except:
-McSally (loses reelection)
-Tillis (loses reelection, or may be a surprise retirement)
-Jones (loses reelection)

I also think Cory Gardner loses reelection. I imagine his fate will be similar to Dean Heller: public polling will show a competitive race, but the Democrat will ultimately win by mid to high single digits.

[Roll Roons]

I said all except Jones, Tillis and McSally. Collins will have the toughest Senate race of her career, but I see her holding on, especially if King endorses her. The only way Daines might go down is if Bullock runs against him. Perdue will have a real fight on his hands, but Trump will almost certainly campaign for him, given how close they are.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hard to say; most of these outcomes I think are dependent on the Presidential race, and I think like 2016 the Presidential race will be erratic and highly dependent on the timing of headlines.

Right now, I'm going to say the only incumbents to lose are Jones, Gardner, and McSally.

I'd give Tillis a 75 - 80% chance of winning, Collins and Ernst 80 - 90% chances of winning, Peters, Daines and Cornyn 90 - 95% chances of winning, and the rest >95+% chance of winning.

[lfromnj]

wow are people this anti mcsally . She most likely wont be senator on January 4th 2023 but 2021 is still a tossup.

[FalloutBoy97]

wow are people this anti mcsally . She most likely wont be senator on January 4th 2023 but 2021 is still a tossup.

Well, the fact that she just lost a senate race in a state that will only continue to trend D does not bode well for her. While there were some dynamics in 2018 that may not manifest themselves in 2020 (she may not face as strong a challenger as Sinema, the environment may not be as strong democratic, etc.) this far out I wouldn't bet on Mcsally. This is a wild guess after all.

[QAnonKelly]

Gardner is young, he should just move on. Take a job at the RNC or something. He won last time on a fluke against someone who ran a terrible campaign in an R wave midterm year, ain't no way in hell he survives in a presidential year. Especially with Trump who's absolute poison to a state like CO being said president. He probably loses by 10 points.

[Calthrina950]

Gardner is young, he should just move on. Take a job at the RNC or something. He won last time on a fluke against someone who ran a terrible campaign in an R wave midterm year, ain't no way in hell he survives in a presidential year. Especially with Trump who's absolute poison to a state like CO being said president. He probably loses by 10 points.

I have to agree with this. The Democratic sweep in Colorado, in 2018, shows that Gardner has little chance. Especially since Trump is virtually guaranteed to lose the state by at least mid single digits in 2020.

Otherwise, I think McSally, Jones, and Tillis will more likely than not be gone from the Senate in 2021. Collins and Daines are possibilities as well; Perdue is a stretch, given that Democrats failed to win a single statewide office in Georgia last year. I believe Ernst is favored, as are Peters and Cornyn. Shaheen and Smith should be safe, unless if the former faces someone like Sununu.

[Brittain33]

The legend of UTJE rises again.

She may be favored, but it's way too early to see her as an entrenched demigod incumbent after winning 1 election. Iowa swings bigly and the farm economy is hurting.

[Del Tachi]

All but Collins (retires), McSally and Jones (both lose reelect).

[Xing]

Gun to my head, Gardner, Jones, McSally, and Tillis lose and the rest survive, but Collins, Ernst, Perdue, and Peters are all vulnerable, and Daines is too if Bullock runs.

[The3rdParty]

Daines and Smith seem like the best bets. I doubt a D can win MT with an R incumbent, an open race would be a different story, and Smith isn't going to lose considering she just won by 11 points and is going to continue to dominate in the suburbs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

6 Battleground states

[IceSpear]

Right now, I'm going to say the only incumbents to lose are Jones, Gardner, and McSally.

This, but obviously things can change a lot in 2 years.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

But will Democrats have a strong challenger for McSally in AZ, and won't she have incumbency advantage?

[Lechasseur]

As of right now, I'd say everyone except for Jones and Tillis. I think McSally is DOA if Trump loses AZ but survives if he wins it. And I can see Daines losing to Bullock, but against someone else he wins reelection. I think everyone else is favored to still be in the Senate in 2021.

And then of course Gardner is just as DOA as Jones, but he wasn't in the poll.