Is OH really trending R?

[IceSpear]

It's Ohioming now.

[Zaybay]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.

Stop.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Looking back at 2004, it really is amazing how close Kerry came to carrying the state. 

What's just as amazing is how well Gore did there in 2000 despite triaging it a month before the election.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think the R trend is temporary. The rurals need to get maxed out for Republicans, then the suburbs and urban areas need to continue their D trends for Ohio to regain its status as a purple state.

to you what state's R trend isn't temporary?

Literally some states have to trend R by virtue of a trend.

The moment the coal industry is revitalized, WV's temporary R trend will be reversed and it will be safe D again.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Yes. Next MO I'd say, and MO is the new AR (as much as McCaskill shrieked during the campaign that she didn't want it to happen). Of course, MI is the new OH (lagging 2-3 cycles behind).

Another R hack. Great.

[Peanut]

Yes. Next MO I'd say, and MO is the new AR (as much as McCaskill shrieked during the campaign that she didn't want it to happen). Of course, MI is the new OH (lagging 2-3 cycles behind).

Us Democrats can only wait for Ivanka's impending 50-state landslide in 2032, I assume?

[Suburbia]

Yes, but Democrats should still heavily contest Ohio. Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati are all areas that vote Democratic, look for the affluent suburbs for Democrats to make gains in.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yes. Next MO I'd say, and MO is the new AR (as much as McCaskill shrieked during the campaign that she didn't want it to happen). Of course, MI is the new OH (lagging 2-3 cycles behind).

Another R hack. Great.

Honestly, population trends indicate it's probably true. However, Pennsylvania should be pretty safe for Dems from here on out, and AZ/GA/TX probably vote Dem before MI votes GOP.

[Politician]

Yes. Next MO I'd say, and MO is the new AR (as much as McCaskill shrieked during the campaign that she didn't want it to happen). Of course, MI is the new OH (lagging 2-3 cycles behind).

According to you every state is trending Republican and soon the Republicans will win all 50 states and come close in DC.

[Peanut]

Yes. Next MO I'd say, and MO is the new AR (as much as McCaskill shrieked during the campaign that she didn't want it to happen). Of course, MI is the new OH (lagging 2-3 cycles behind).

Us Democrats can only wait for Ivanka's impending 50-state landslide in 2032, I assume?

Ivanka is horrible, god no.

Some states trend R, some states trend D. MI is very similar to Ohio demographically and in terms economic profile, with the one thing separating them being Detroit (where the population shrinks each year). I don't think what I said was that odd. I think MI and WI vote to the left of PA going forward to the record (which I think will be the new swing state for a few cycles).

Ok, I can see what you're saying. I also think that Democrats will just need to wait and see how Michigan trends for us in the next few cycles, it has some areas that are worrisome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.

Yes, if Warren is the nominee, but having a Martin Heinrich as a running mate for Harris can cut into WWC

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.

OH-12??

[lfromnj]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.

OH-12??

has a counter trend.

Even during the special election danny o connor did worse than Barack Hussein Obama in some of the rural counties

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.

OH-12??

has a counter trend.

Even during the special election danny o connor did worse than Barack Hussein Obama in some of the rural counties

So what? No one lives there. Northern Franklin Burbs + Delaware County are trending D and more people live there

[Zaybay]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.

OH-12??

has a counter trend.

Even during the special election danny o connor did worse than Barack Hussein Obama in some of the rural counties

So what? No one lives there. Northern Franklin Burbs + Delaware County are trending D and more people live there

While I disagree with Infomnj that the counter trend is anything significant, the problem about this seat is that the suburbs still act as WOW suburbs, not Boston or Philly suburbs. They are still incredibly R, and its really only Hamilton county, AKA, the area right outside Columbus+parts of Columbus, that make it less R than it should be. Its on the on the rim of being competitive and being an R seat.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It has a R trend, but i expect a small revision, because the 2016 numbers might've been unusual, although the 2008 and 2012 as well because of political environment in 2008 and because the Republican ticket was a bad fit, and because Romney wasn't as likeable or a good ticket for the many WWC voters. It's trending R (the degree of it is unknown) but still a very elastic state, and therefore could very well vote to the left of states like GA in 2020 (most likely not though, as Trump is a very good fit for OH). In 2024 and 2028 it might become more competitive again, depending on the nominees and political environment for those years. In 2020, OH will probably vote R, unless the economy crashes or Trump loses popularity among Trump voters, and/or Democrats nominate a very good candidate for that region (with good campaign). I don't see OH flipping though, but it's definitely not a Safe R state.

2020 might become the year where OH for the first time in a long time doesn't vote for the winner.