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| | |-+  Which will happen first?
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Question: Which will happen first?
A Democrat wins without Minnesota   -20 (47.6%)
A Republican wins without Georgia   -22 (52.4%)
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Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: Which will happen first?  (Read 509 times)
WI is Safe D
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« on: January 07, 2019, 03:38:31 pm »

16 years ago, the idea of a Republican winning without Virginia was unthinkable.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2019, 06:46:11 pm »

A Republican winning without Georgia, easily. Amy Klobuchar, Tina Smith, & Tim Walz all very easily ran away w/ their wins in MN last November. Meanwhile, Abrams just lost by only 1 point w/ young voters not even turning out at presidential levels & older voters making up a larger-than-presidential share of the electorate. I don't know what the GOP path to victory without GA would look like, but it'll certainly occur before a Dem path to victor without MN.
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2019, 10:33:03 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.
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WI is Safe D
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2019, 09:33:37 am »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2019, 10:19:26 am »

Republicans winning without Georgia, because GA will likely soon be to the left of both NC and FL.

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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2019, 10:21:06 am »

Republicans winning without Georgia, because GA will likely soon be to the left of both NC and FL.


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The3rdParty
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2019, 10:32:45 am »

Republicans won't be winning MN anytime soon, keep dreaming.
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2019, 01:31:43 pm »

I expect Minnesota to vote R, and Georgia D, in the 2028 election after two terms of a Democratic President.
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2019, 03:34:12 pm »

Republicans won't be winning MN anytime soon, keep dreaming.
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2019, 07:41:27 pm »

If the pattern of Republicans winning close elections while Democrats win decisively continues, definitely a Republican winning without Georgia.
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2019, 04:31:55 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2019, 04:58:58 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.
They haven't won it since 1972 and they got btfo in the midterms. Even a black Muslim wife-beater Democrat dealing with a third party challenge won because he had the (D) next to his name.
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2019, 06:36:49 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.
They haven't won it since 1972 and they got btfo in the midterms. Even a black Muslim wife-beater Democrat dealing with a third party challenge won because he had the (D) next to his name.

It's not exactly impressive that Democrats won a slightly left of center state in a Republican president's midterm. The fact that's black and Muslim doesn't do anything to make him less electable, despite what every liberal will believe. It more had to do with being ideologically extreme during his time in Congress, but of course, the white rural folks are racist so that matters more I guess.

And yes, it hasn't voted Republican since '72, but it's a lucky streak more than anything. Eventually, luck will run out. It voted more Republican than the nation in 2016, and it's no sure thing that it'll swing back in 2020 or 2024.
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Jags
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« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2019, 08:14:27 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.
They haven't won it since 1972 and they got btfo in the midterms. Even a black Muslim wife-beater Democrat dealing with a third party challenge won because he had the (D) next to his name.

It's not exactly impressive that Democrats won a slightly left of center state in a Republican president's midterm. The fact that's black and Muslim doesn't do anything to make him less electable, despite what every liberal will believe. It more had to do with being ideologically extreme during his time in Congress, but of course, the white rural folks are racist so that matters more I guess.

And yes, it hasn't voted Republican since '72, but it's a lucky streak more than anything. Eventually, luck will run out. It voted more Republican than the nation in 2016, and it's no sure thing that it'll swing back in 2020 or 2024.
46 years of voting democratic is “luck”, but a one election trend with two horrible outlier candidates is a “trend”.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2019, 08:40:25 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.
They haven't won it since 1972 and they got btfo in the midterms. Even a black Muslim wife-beater Democrat dealing with a third party challenge won because he had the (D) next to his name.

It's not exactly impressive that Democrats won a slightly left of center state in a Republican president's midterm. The fact that's black and Muslim doesn't do anything to make him less electable, despite what every liberal will believe. It more had to do with being ideologically extreme during his time in Congress, but of course, the white rural folks are racist so that matters more I guess.

And yes, it hasn't voted Republican since '72, but it's a lucky streak more than anything. Eventually, luck will run out. It voted more Republican than the nation in 2016, and it's no sure thing that it'll swing back in 2020 or 2024.
46 years of voting democratic is “luck”, but a one election trend with two horrible outlier candidates is a “trend”.

The fact that it was the Democratic nominee's home state in the biggest landslide since '72 and he won it by a few thousand votes is pretty lucky if you ask me. And you think 2016 was an outlier? Well, all I have to say is see you after 2020.
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« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2019, 09:38:59 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.
They haven't won it since 1972 and they got btfo in the midterms. Even a black Muslim wife-beater Democrat dealing with a third party challenge won because he had the (D) next to his name.

It's not exactly impressive that Democrats won a slightly left of center state in a Republican president's midterm. The fact that's black and Muslim doesn't do anything to make him less electable, despite what every liberal will believe. It more had to do with being ideologically extreme during his time in Congress, but of course, the white rural folks are racist so that matters more I guess.

And yes, it hasn't voted Republican since '72, but it's a lucky streak more than anything. Eventually, luck will run out. It voted more Republican than the nation in 2016, and it's no sure thing that it'll swing back in 2020 or 2024.
46 years of voting democratic is “luck”, but a one election trend with two horrible outlier candidates is a “trend”.

The fact that it was the Democratic nominee's home state in the biggest landslide since '72 and he won it by a few thousand votes is pretty lucky if you ask me. And you think 2016 was an outlier? Well, all I have to say is see you after 2020.
I will when I’m laughing at this prediction.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2019, 11:40:18 pm »

Democrats winning without Minnesota, which can happen if the Democrats win Florida and 2/3 of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. I find it hard to see how Republicans win without Georgia unless they win Florida without Georgia.

Do you really think Democrats can win Florida and lose Minnesota?

Also keep in mind, even if Florida flipped in 2016, Hillary still would have lost.

In the future, yes. Why is that so hard to believe? This idea that Minnesota can't be won by Republicans is really getting old.

The MN GOP hasn't won a statewide election in 13 years (0-20), a presidential election in 47 years (0-11), and hasn't carried a majority of the statewide electorate in 24 years (0-40). I mean, maybe this is all a gigantic coincidence, or maybe Republicans have an absurdly low, persistent ceiling in MN statewide elections. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: January 13, 2019, 01:37:49 pm »

Republican winning without Georgia.



Extremely plausible 2024 or 2028 map.  Texas is probably closer than Beto vs. Cruz, with something like a 4% nationwide PV win for the Dem.  Reapportionment probably doesn't change much on net unless Texas flips.
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